Political Beliefs and Public Opinion

Political efficacy

The belief that one’s political participation really matters

Political Socialization

-A continuing process that is vital to societies and individuals.

-The process by which political values are formed and passed from one generation to the

next

Political Socialization

Agents of Political Socialization

1. The family2. Education

3. Social groups

Agents of Political SocializationThe Family

1. The most important agent of political socialization

2. Children raised in households in which both parents strongly identify with the same

political party are likely to identify with their parents’ party.

Agents of Political SocializationEducation

1. Class elections, student government, and social studies class play a key role in teaching students the values of liberty, individualism,

and democracy2. College graduates have a higher level of

political participation than do other Americans.

Agents of Political SocializationSocial groups

1. Black and white Americans differ on a number of issues including affirmative action

programs and race relations.2. Religious groups differ on a number of issues,

including same-sex marriage, school prayer, and abortion.

3. Men and women differ on a number of issues, including health care programs and

support for defense budgets.

The Science of Public Opinion Measurement

Straw polling:-The name comes from the practice of tossing straw

into the air to see which way the wind is blowing.-American political leaders have a long history of

trying to gauge public opinion.-Early attempts included counting the size of a

crowd, noting the level of audience applause, and asking random people on the street to express their

opinion .

The Science of Public Opinion Measurement

Literary Digest fiasco-1936:-LD mailed postcard ballots to more than 10

million people asking if they supported Franklin D. Roosevelt or his Republican challenger, Alf

Landon.-Overwhelming majority of 2 millions

respondents supported Landon. Based on this response LD predicted (with confidence) that

Landon would win in a landslide.

The Science of Public Opinion Measurement

Literary Digest fiasco-1936:-Roosevelt won an overwhelming victory, carrying every state

but Maine and Vermont.-LD poll produced flawed results because it relied on a faulty

sample that used telephone directories and automobile registration rosters.

-LD failed to consider that, during the Great Depression, millions of working-class Americans could not afford phones or cars.-The poll excluded Roosevelt’s blue-collar supporters while

oversampling wealthy Americans who supported Landon.

The Science of Public Opinion Measurement

Scientific Sampling:-George Gallup and Elmo Roper developed the

technique of scientific sampling..-Today, over 1000 polling organizations attempt to

measure public preferences on everything from soft drinks to television shows. Led by the Gallup

Organization and the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, as many as 200 organizations focus on polling the American public’s political preferences.

The Science of Public Opinion Measurement

Steps in Scientific Polling:-Define the population to be surveyed.

-Construct a sample or representative slice of the population. Most polls use random sampling in which every member of the population being

studied must have and equal chance of being sampled. If this happens, a small sample should

represent the whole population.

The Science of Public Opinion Measurement

Steps in Scientific Polling:-Construct carefully designed survey questions

to avoid bias.-Conduct the poll by using either telephone or

face-to-face interviewing procedures.-Analyze and report the data/

Polls and Democracy

Pros: A Tool for Democracy:-Supporters argue that polling contributes to the

democratic process by providing a way for the public to express its opinion

-Supporters also point out that polling enables political leaders to understand and implement

public preferences on key issues.

Polls and DemocracyCons: A Tool For the Timid and Manipulative:

-Critics argue that polls transform leaders into followers. For example, had polls been available in 1787, the Framers might have been content to follow public opinion by revising the Articles of Confederation.

-Critics also charge that polls can be used to manipulate public opinion. For example, the bandwagon effects

occurs when polling results influence people to support candidates and issues that appear to be popular..

Polls and DemocracyA Caution for the Democratic Process

-The democratic process is based on an informed citizenry.-Public opinion polls reveal and alarming lack of public

knowledge about the American political system.-A national poll found that 74% of respondents could name

the Three Stooges, while just 42 % could identify the 3 branches of government.

-Another major study found that only 25% of respondents could name their 2 senators and less than half knew that the

Constitution’s first 10 amendments are called the Bill of Rights.