political demography: demographic change and global futures jack a. goldstone december 13 foreign...
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POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY:Demographic Change and Global Futures
Jack A. Goldstone
December 13Foreign Policy Research Institute
POPULATION MEGATRENDS
1. Big emerging markets and the world economy
2. Aging and shrinking workforces in the developed countries
3. Youth and Islam: The New face of the developing world
4. An Urban, not rural, world
Where will the People Be?
Global Labor Force Growth
Worker Growth vs. Elderly Growth
Increase in Older Folks in the US
Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005
Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20
The Youth Surge in the Middle East(Ages 15-29)
Youth 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.53Bulge
Muslim Growth in the World
Growth in Pop 15-44 age group
An Urban World
What are the Solutions?
• FLEXIBILITY– Retirement /Work/Education– Immigration and Emigration– Business start-up and innovation to find Market-based solutions
• MORE GLOBALIZATION– Open Trade and Human Exchange, New Urbanism– Have faith in European/Liberal Values– Globalization of Education!
What are We Doing About it?
• Investing in Education? No.• Investing in Basic Research? No.• Improving Energy Grid/Efficiency? No.• Improving attraction to top migrants? No.• Pulling together, sharing sacrifice? NO, NO, NO.
• Complaining about taxes, government, regulation? YES, YES, YES.