Political Environment and Congressional Breakdown ChartsSeptember 12, 2017

Presidential Job Approval: Gallup PollingGallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”

57%Disapprove

37%Approve

-20%Net

Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, September 11, 2017

30

40

50

60

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6

Feb

27-M

ar 5

Mar

6-12

Mar

13-19

Mar

20-

26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9

Apr 1

0-16

Apr 1

7-23

Apr 2

4-30

May

1-7

May

8-14

May

15-2

1

May

22-

28

May

29-

Jun

4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5

Jun

26-J

ul 2

Jul 3

-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6

Aug

7-13

Aug

14-2

0

Aug

21-2

7

Aug

28-S

ep 3

Sep

4-10

Approve Disapprove Trump 2016 Win Percentage (46.1%)

-25

-12.5

0

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6

Feb

27-M

ar 5

Mar

6-12

Mar

13-19

Mar

20-

26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9

Apr 1

0-16

Apr 1

7-23

Apr 2

4-30

May

1-7

May

8-14

May

15-2

1

May

22-

28

May

29-

Jun

4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5

Jun

26-J

ul 2

Jul 3

-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6

Aug

7-13

Aug

14-2

0

Aug

21-2

7

Aug

28-S

ep 3

Sep

4-10

Net (% Approval - % Disapproval)

Gallup Presidential Job Approval by PartyGallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”

80%Republican Approval

31%Independent Approval

9%Democratic Approval

31%Independent Approval

Zoom on Independents

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6

Feb

27-M

ar 5

Mar

6-12

Mar

13-19

Mar

20-

26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9

Apr 1

0-16

Apr 1

7-23

Apr 2

4-30

May

1-7

May

8-14

May

15-2

1

May

22-

28

May

29-

Jun

4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5

Jun

26-J

ul 2

Jul 3

-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6

Aug

7-13

Aug

14-2

0

Aug

21-2

7

Aug

28-S

ep 3

Sep

4-10

Republicans Independents Democrats

28

35

42

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6

Feb

27-M

ar 5

Mar

6-12

Mar

13-19

Mar

20-

26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9

Apr 1

0-16

Apr 1

7-23

Apr 2

4-30

May

1-7

May

8-14

May

15-2

1

May

22-

28

May

29-

Jun

4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5

Jun

26-J

ul 2

Jul 3

-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6

Aug

7-13

Aug

14-2

0

Aug

21-2

7

Aug

28-S

ep 3

Sep

4-10

Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, September 11, 2017

Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to WatchOur Favorite Polls

55%Total Disapprove

Fox News August 27-29, 2017 | 1,006 Registed Voters

56%Total Negative

NBCAugust 5-9, 2017 | 1200 Adults

CNNAugust 3-6, 2017 | 1,111 Adults

56%Total Disapprove

38%Total Approve

ABC-Washington PostAugust 16-20, 2017 | 1,014 Adults

0

25

50

75

100

Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

Very Positive Somewhat Positive NeutralSomewhat Negative Very Negative

36%Total Positive

58%Total Disapprove

37%Total Approve

0

25

50

75

100

Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Don’t KnowSomewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

41%Total Approve

0

25

50

75

100

Jan-17 Mar-17 Aug-17

Approve Strongly Approve Moderately Don’t KnowDisapprove Moderately Disapprove Strongly

0

25

50

75

100

Apr-17 Jul-17 Aug-17

Approve Strongly Approve Somewhat Don’t KnowDisapprove Somewhat Disapprove Strongly

Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to WatchMore Topline Approval Numbersc+35+59Quinnipiac University

August 17-22, 20171,514 Registerd Voters

35%

59%

Approve -24c+36+63Pew Research

August 8-21, 2017 4,971 Adults

36%

63%

Approve -27c+38+51NPR/PBS/Marist

August 14-15, 2017859 Registered Voters

38%

51%

Approve -13c+36+58CBS News

August 3-6, 2017 1,111 Adults

36%

58%

Approve -22

Real Clear Politics Average | 8/16 - 9/11

APPROVE DISAPPROVE SPREAD

39.7 56.0 -16.3

Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1966

Senate and House

Current Trump Approval

37%Gallup September 4-10, 2017

Job Approval Avg. Change House Avg. Change Senate

Over 60% +3 Seats -2 Seats

50%-60% -12 Seats - 1 Seat

Under 50% -40 Seats - 5 Seats

Gallop Presidential Approval Ratings, Sept 11, 2017

-70

0

70

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

House Seats Presidential Approval

42%45%

39%

63%66%

46%

58%63%

43%

52%47%

57%

49%

-13

-63

-30

85

-54

-8-5

-26

-15

-48

-12

-48

49%

57%

47%52%

43%

63%58%

46%

66%63%

39%45%

42%

Direction of the CountryNBC News/Wall Street Journal: Right Direction/Wrong Track Polling

59%Off on the wrong track

34%Headed in the right direction

-25%Net

“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?”

NBC/WSJ, April 17-20, 2017

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Jan

2012

Apr 2

012

Jun

2012

Aug

2012

Sep

2012

Nov

201

2

Jan

2013

Apr 2

013

Jul 2

013

Oct

201

3

Dec

201

3

Mar

201

4

Jun

2014

Sep

2014

Oct

201

4

Dec

201

4

Mar

ch 2

015

June

201

5

Sept

201

5

Oct

201

5

Jan

2016

June

201

6

Aug

2016

Oct

201

6

Jan

2017

Right Direction Undecided Wrong Track

-75

-50

-25

0

Jan

2012

Apr 2

012

Jun

2012

Aug

2012

Sep

2012

Nov

201

2

Jan

2013

Apr 2

013

Jul 2

013

Oct

201

3

Dec

201

3

Mar

201

4

Jun

2014

Sep

2014

Oct

201

4

Dec

201

4

Mar

ch 2

015

June

201

5

Sept

201

5

Oct

201

5

Jan

2016

June

201

6

Aug

2016

Oct

201

6

Jan

2017

Net (% Right Direction - % Wrong Direction)

Hart Research Associates (D)Public Opinion Stratagies (R)

Party IdentificationGallup Polling: Party Affiliation

0

25

50

75

100

1988

1989

1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

28262625

282729

272828

303334

32333230

2829293030302929

33333331

4142434240403837

3539343331

36343535383737363938

383736

333333

2929303131313134363334333431323334343434343132343431353536

Democrat Independent Republican

28%Republicans

41%Independents

29%Democrats

-10

-7.5

-5

-2.5

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

1988

1989

1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-5

-2 -2

2

-5 -5

-2-1

-4-5 -5

-6

-4

-1

1 10 0

-4-5

-8-7

-2

-4-3

-6

-4-3

-1

Net (% Republican - % Democrat)

-1%Net

c+34+29Party Favorable/Unfavorable

NBC/WSJ*

August 5-9, 20171,200 Adults

34%

29%

Democrats +5c+45+40Pew

April 5-11, 2017 1,501 Adults

45%

40%

Democrats +5c+44+42CNN

March 1-4, 20171,006 Registered Voters

44%

42%

Democrats +2c+47+41FOX

Jan 15-18, 2017 1,502 Adults

47%

41%

Democrats +6c+42+44Bloomberg/Selzer

Dec 2 - Dec 5, 2016999 Adults

42%

44%

Republicans +2

Democratic % Favorable

Republican % Favorable

*NBC asks Positive/Negative

The Economy: Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment

122.9ConsumerConfidence

96.8ConsumerSentiment

II. 1980 – Present

I. Last six years (2010 – Present)

Consumer Confidence Survey® August 2017Consumer Sentiment August 2017

25

50

75

100

125

Jan

'10M

ar '1

0M

ay '1

0Ju

ly '1

0Se

pt '1

0N

ov '1

0Ja

n '11

Mar

'11

May

'11

July

'11

Sept

'11

Nov

'11

Jan

'12M

ar '1

2M

ay '1

2Ju

ly '1

2Se

pt '1

2N

ov '1

2Ja

n '13

Mar

'13

May

'13

July

'13

Sept

'13

Nov

'13

Jan

'14M

ar '1

4M

ay '1

4Ju

ly '1

4Se

pt '1

4N

ov '1

4Ja

n '15

Mar

'15

May

'15

Sept

'15

Nov

'15

Jan

'16M

ar '1

6M

ay '1

6Ju

ly '1

6Se

pt '1

6N

ov '1

6Ja

n '17

Mar

'17

May

'17

July

'17

Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceUniversity of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment

20

55

90

125

160

Jan

'80

Oct

'80

July

'81

Apr '

82Ja

n '8

3O

ct '8

3Ju

ly '8

4Ap

r '85

Jan

'86

Oct

'86

July

'87

Apr '

88Ja

n '8

9O

ct '8

9Ju

ly '9

0Ap

r '91

Jan

'92

Oct

'92

July

'93

Apr '

94Ja

n '9

5O

ct '9

5Ju

ly '9

6Ap

r '97

Jan

'98

Oct

'98

July

'99

Apr '

00Ja

n '0

1O

ct '0

1Ju

ly '0

2Ap

r '03

Jan

'04

Oct

'04

July

'05

Apr '

06Ja

n '0

7O

ct '0

7Ju

ly '0

8Ap

r '09

Jan

'10O

ct '1

0Ju

ly '1

1Ap

r '12

Jan

'13O

ct '1

3Ju

ly '1

4Ju

ly '1

5Ju

ne '1

6M

ar '1

7

Obamacare: Tracking Public AttitudesThe Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll

“As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it?” (Rotated - Participants then asked to choose between very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable)”

39%Total Negative

52%Total Positive

+13%Net

Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: August 2017

0

25

50

75

100

03/13

04/13

06/13

08/13

09/13

10/13 11/13

12/13

01/14

02/14

03/14

04/14

05/14

06/14

07/14

09/14

10/14 11/14

12/14

01/15

03/15

04/15

06/0

9/15

06/2

9/15

08/15

09/15

10/15 11/15

12/15

01/16

02/16

03/16

04/16

06/16

07/16

08/16

09/16

10/16 11/16

12/16

02/17

03/17

04/17

04/17

05/17

06/17

07/17

08/17

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don’t know/Refused Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable

-20

-10

0

10

03/13

04/13

06/13

08/13

09/13

10/13 11/13

12/13

01/14

02/14

03/14

04/14

05/14

06/14

07/14

09/14

10/14 11/14

12/14

01/15

03/15

04/15

06/0

9/15

06/2

9/15

08/15

09/15

10/15 11/15

12/15

01/16

02/16

03/16

04/16

06/16

07/16

08/16

09/16

10/16 11/16

12/16

02/17

03/17

04/17

04/17

05/17

06/17

07/17

08/17

Net (% Positive - % Negative)

ACHA: Tracking Public AttitudesThe Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll

“As you may know, congress is discussing a health care plan that would repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Given what you know, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavor-

able) opinion of it?”

61%Total Negative

27%Total Positive

Kaiser Health Tracking Poll July 2017

0

25

50

75

100

5/17

6/17

7/17

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don’t know/Refused Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable

“What it Takes:” 2018 Senate MathCan Democrats take the Senate Majority in 2018?

Current Senate Breakdown by Party

Cook Political Report Senate Math for 2018

Bottom Line: Democrats need at least three seats to take the the Senate.

To do that they need to hold all 25 of their seats up for reelection, win one Republican-held seat in Toss Up, win

the seat in Lean Republican column and take one of the seven seats in

Solid Republican.

Tota

l

0 100

5248

Democrats Republicans

Two Independents - King (ME) and Sanders (VT) caucus with the Democrats

Tota

l

0 100

43714461223

Democrat-Held Seats Not on BallotSolid Democrat Likely DemocratLean DemocratToss UpLean Republican Likely RepublicanSolid Republican Republican Held Seats Not on Ballot

Last Ratings Change: August 17, 2018

“What it Takes:” 2018 House MathCan Democrats take the House in 2018?

Current House Breakdown by Party

Cook Political Report House Math for 2018

Bottom Line: Democrats need at least 24 seats. To do that they need win

all seats in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic columns. They also need to win all 12 seats in Toss Up and 14 of the

23 seats in Lean Republican.

Tota

l

0 108.75 217.5 326.25 435

240194

Democrats Republicans

Last Ratings Change: September 11, 2017

Tota

l

0 435

186222312710175

Solid DemocratLikely DemocratLean DemocratToss UpLean Republican Likely RepublicanSolid Republican