political science 12: ir -- third lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecture
![Page 2: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?3
![Page 3: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why Is There So Much Peace in the World?• Most nations are at peace most of the time • American deaths from
• 9/11: 2,986 • Terrorism: A few dozen per year • Iraq War: 4,977 • Murder, average year: 15,000 • Car accidents, average year: 42,000 • Lightning, average year: 90
![Page 4: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Percentage of States Involved in War per Year, 1820–2010
![Page 5: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
War Is Puzzling
• War is costly • Blood and treasure • States would rather get what they
want without going to war • “In war, the aggressor is always
peace-loving; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed.”
—Karl von Clausewitz
![Page 6: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of a failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 7: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of a failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 8: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
What States Fight Over
• Territory
Territorial Claims in the
Kashmir Region
![Page 9: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
What States Fight Over
• National policy !
• Regime type !
• Ethnic or religious divisions
![Page 10: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What States Fight Over
Territorial Disputes and the Risk of
Interstate Conflict, 1950-1990
![Page 11: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of a failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 12: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
War as Outcome of a Failed BargainAlternative explanations for war 1. Anarchy 2. Misperception 3. Domestic politics
![Page 13: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Additional Features of War
War attributes 1. Intensity - casualties per time period 2. Duration - number of months/years 3. Scope - number of participants 4. “Decisiveness” - subjective
![Page 14: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Additional Features of War
Intensity 1. Most wars are “nice little wars.”:
Low intensity conflicts, localized wars 2. Inverse relationship between
intensity and duration 3. Positive relationship between
intensity and scope (# of participants) 4. Intensity might be positively related
![Page 15: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Additional Features of War
Duration 1. Most wars are relatively short 2. Low intensity contests -- tend to be
long because they are not decisive 3. Wars of attrition -- tend to be long
because goal is to exhaust opponent 4. High intensity contests -- can be
short because they are informative
![Page 16: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Features of War, cont.
![Page 17: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Features of War, cont.
![Page 18: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Features of War, cont.
![Page 19: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain• Bargaining • Coercive bargaining (aka “crisis
bargaining” or “coercive diplomacy”) • “Do what I ask or else!”
![Page 20: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain
!!!
The Costs of War and the Bargaining Range
![Page 21: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
!
CASTLE A
!
CASTLE B
War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain: A Model of War
![Page 22: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Castle A Castle B
Fertile farmland
A Model
![Page 23: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Castle A Castle B
Fertile farmland
A Model of War!
!
!
!
• The object of contention (the green line) can be anything that states are in conflict over.
![Page 24: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
A B
Current Border
Probable new border if A and
B fight
A Model of War
![Page 25: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
A B
Costs of fighting to A
Probable new border if A and
B fight
Costs of fighting to B
A Model of War
![Page 26: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
A B
Net value of fighting to A
Net value of fighting to B
A Model of War
!
!
!
![Page 27: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
A B
Range of possible border settlements that both A and
B prefer to fighting
Current Border
A Model of War
![Page 28: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
A B
Current Border
B's proposal for a new border
A Model of War
![Page 29: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
For any A and B, if • War is costly • The object of contention is divisible
Then there is always at least one negotiated settlement that A and B will both prefer to war.
A B
A Model of War
![Page 30: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Bargaining and the Status Quo
![Page 31: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Deterrence
![Page 32: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 33: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
War from Incomplete Information• Leads to two bargaining mistakes:
– Yielding too little – Demanding too much
![Page 34: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
War from Incomplete Information• Incentives to misrepresent • May seek to appear weaker or
stronger • May want to keep adversary
guessing
![Page 35: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
A B
A thinks that the probable new border if A and B fight is here
Bluffing
![Page 36: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
A B
B says, “No--the probable new border if we fight is here.”
A thinks that the probable new border if A and B fight is here
Bluffing
![Page 37: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
A B
B has a secret weapon, putting the actual probable new border
if they fight here
A thinks that the probable new border if A and B fight is here
Bluffing
![Page 38: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
War from Incomplete Information• Communicating resolve
–Brinkmanship –Tying hands –Paying for power
![Page 39: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
War from Incomplete Information• Communicating resolve
–Brinkmanship –Tying hands –Paying for power
![Page 40: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Brinkmanship: The Cuban Missile Crisis
![Page 41: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
War from Incomplete Information• Communicating resolve
–Brinkmanship –Tying hands –Paying for power
![Page 42: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
War from Incomplete Information• Communicating resolve
–Brinkmanship –Tying hands –Paying for power
![Page 43: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 44: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
War from Commitment Problems• What if you find a settlement in
the bargaining range? • Can you trust your adversary
to honor a deal?
![Page 45: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
War from Commitment Problems• Bargaining over the future • Preventive war • Preemptive war (war in response
to first-strike advantages)
![Page 46: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
War from Commitment Problems• Preventive war
– Power shift: Even if states agree to a deal in the bargaining range now, the rising power may be tempted to use its power to revise the deal later.
![Page 47: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Bargaining and Shifting Power
![Page 48: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Note: The upper line depicts the expected outcome of a war started by A. The lower line depicts the expected outcome of a war started by B.
Bargaining and First-Strike Advantages
![Page 49: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
War from Commitment Problems
![Page 50: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 51: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
War from Indivisibility
![Page 52: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Why Are There Wars?
1. What states fight over 2. War as outcome of failed bargain 3. War from incomplete information 4. War from commitment problems 5. War from indivisibility 6. How to make war less likely
![Page 53: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
How to make war less likely
• Raise costs • Increase transparency • Outside enforcement • Divide indivisible goods
![Page 54: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Dividing Apparently Indivisible Goods
![Page 55: Political Science 12: IR -- Third Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_third_lecture_08112014.pdf · Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? • Most nations are at peace most of the](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070800/5f023c807e708231d4034114/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Political Science 12: International Relations