political theory and strategy formulationwoon/courses/ps1283_mvt.pdf · political theory and...
TRANSCRIPT
AgendaAgenda
!! More political theoryMore political theory
"" Logrolling (Logrolling (““vote tradingvote trading””))
"" Median voter theoremMedian voter theorem
"" VetoVeto gamegame
!! Generic political strategiesGeneric political strategies
"" Majority-buildingMajority-building
"" RepresentationRepresentation
"" MobilizationMobilization
"" InformationalInformational
LogrollingLogrolling
!! Also known as Also known as ““vote tradingvote trading””
!! Individual projects without majority supportIndividual projects without majority support
as standalone policiesas standalone policies
!! Bundling projects together so that theBundling projects together so that the
package passespackage passes
Logrolling can be efficientLogrolling can be efficient
220220400400-60-60-120-120PoolPool
39539531531540404040IndivIndiv..
BenefitsBenefits
8080-30-30150150-40-40LibraryLibrary
9595-55-55-50-50200200HospitalHospital
NetNet
BenefitsBenefitsCarlCarlBobBobAnnAnnProjectProject
Or inefficient Or inefficient !! No logroll No logroll
-10-10400400-140-140-270-270PoolPool
-35-35175175-100-100-110-110IndivIndiv..
BenefitsBenefits
-10-10-120-120150150-40-40LibraryLibrary
-15-15-105-105-110-110200200HospitalHospital
NetNet
BenefitsBenefitsCarlCarlBobBobAnnAnnProjectProject
Minimal coalition logrollMinimal coalition logroll
(but still inefficient)(but still inefficient)
-25-25-225-2254040160160IndivIndiv..
BenefitsBenefits
-10-10-120-120150150-40-40LibraryLibrary
-15-15-105-105-110-110200200HospitalHospital
NetNet
BenefitsBenefitsCarlCarlBobBobAnnAnnProjectProject
Median Voter TheoremMedian Voter Theorem
!! Under what conditions might majority ruleUnder what conditions might majority rulebe coherent and predictable?be coherent and predictable?
!! Conditions:Conditions:
"" Policies represented as points on a linePolicies represented as points on a line
"" Voters have single-peaked (and symmetric)Voters have single-peaked (and symmetric)preferencespreferences
!! Then between two policies, majority ruleThen between two policies, majority rulewill choose the one closest to the medianwill choose the one closest to the medianvotervoter’’s most-preferred policys most-preferred policy
L M R
RedRed policy is closer to both L and M policy is closer to both L and M’’s ideals ideal
points than the points than the blueblue policy policy
L M R
Given two policies, the one closer to theGiven two policies, the one closer to the
median votermedian voter’’s will be preferred by as will be preferred by a
simple majoritysimple majority
Median Voter TheoremMedian Voter Theorem
Add an Add an ““open ruleopen rule”” voting process voting process
!! Any alternative can be proposedAny alternative can be proposed
!! Every new proposal is voted against theEvery new proposal is voted against the
last proposal adoptedlast proposal adopted
L M R
Once the policy located at the medianOnce the policy located at the median’’ssideal point is chosen, nothing else canideal point is chosen, nothing else candefeat it.defeat it.
ImplicationsImplications
!! The MVT is a powerful and useful tool forThe MVT is a powerful and useful tool for
analyzing political outcomesanalyzing political outcomes
!! Identifies forces pushing outcomesIdentifies forces pushing outcomes
towards the middle of political spectrumtowards the middle of political spectrum
!! Legislative institutionsLegislative institutions
!! Electoral competitionElectoral competition
!! Caveat: But procedures matter...Caveat: But procedures matter...
Majority-buildingMajority-building
!! Obtain enough votesObtain enough votes
!! In the right places (committees, floor, etc)In the right places (committees, floor, etc)
!! At the At the ““least costleast cost”” to ensure desirable to ensure desirable
outcomeoutcome
Federal ExpressFederal Express
!! Status quo: Ambiguous jurisdiction allowsStatus quo: Ambiguous jurisdiction allows
local unionizationlocal unionization
!! Desired policy: Clear Railway Labor ActDesired policy: Clear Railway Labor Act
jurisdiction, national unionization onlyjurisdiction, national unionization only
!! Current situation:Current situation:
"" Amendment added in conference of Amendment added in conference of ““must-must-
passpass”” authorization bill authorization bill
"" Opponents mounting filibusterOpponents mounting filibuster
Federal ExpressFederal Express
!! Requires 60 votes to invoke Requires 60 votes to invoke ““cloturecloture”” (end (end
filibuster)filibuster)
f = 41q = 30 b = 60
“cutpoint” = 45
Federal Express needs to recruit 41-45 (5 votes);
46-100 already support bill (55 votes)
RepresentationRepresentation
!! What is it based on?What is it based on?
!! How much constituency influence?How much constituency influence?
!! Application of median voter theorem toApplication of median voter theorem to
candidate ideological positioningcandidate ideological positioning
!! Implies convergence to district medianImplies convergence to district median
votervoter
PoliticiansPoliticians’’ Motivations Motivations
!! Helps to know how to influence themHelps to know how to influence them
!! Re-electionRe-election
"" Constituency supportConstituency support
"" Campaign fundingCampaign funding
!! Personal policy interests or ideologyPersonal policy interests or ideology
!! InfluenceInfluence
"" Committee workCommittee work
"" Party loyaltyParty loyalty
!! Progressive ambitionProgressive ambition
Coalition buildingCoalition building
!! Horizontal mobilizationHorizontal mobilization
"" Allies, even competitorsAllies, even competitors
"" Industry coalitionsIndustry coalitions
!! Vertical mobilizationVertical mobilization
Rent chain: Set of stakeholders that earn rents as aRent chain: Set of stakeholders that earn rents as a
result of interaction with the firmresult of interaction with the firm
DistributorsDistributorsCustomersCustomers
SuppliersSuppliersEmployeesEmployees
RepresentationRepresentation
!! Focuses on the electoral connectionFocuses on the electoral connection
!! Geographic coverage is keyGeographic coverage is key
!! If coverage does not exist, mobilize rentIf coverage does not exist, mobilize rent
chain or industry coalitionschain or industry coalitions
InformationalInformational
!! Technical informationTechnical information
"" FeasibilityFeasibility
"" Policy consequencesPolicy consequences
"" CostCost
!! Political informationPolitical information
"" Effects on constituentsEffects on constituents
"" Extent of supportExtent of support
!! Requires credibility to be effectiveRequires credibility to be effective