Politics of the Middle East

TTurkeyTurkey

History

• Ottoman Empire emerged 13th C• Peaked 15th 17th C, Suleiman the Magnificent• Siege of Vienna 1683, Great Turkish War 1699• Ottoman Decline• Turkish War of Independence (1919–1922)• Kemal Ataturk the establishment the modern Republic of Turkey in 1923• Treaty of Lausanne 24 July 1923 • Turkish Republic 29 October 1923

• population exchange, 1.1 million Greeks left Turkey for Greece in exchange for 380,000 Muslims

• WWII February 1945• 1952 NATO Member• 1960, 1971, 1980 Military Coupe• 1974 Invasion of Cyprus• 1984 PKK insurgency campaign• 2013 Protests, Gezi Park

People

• 76,667,864 (18th)• 70–75% Turks, 18% Kurds, 7–12% others• 26% under the age of 14• 99% Muslim, Sunni Majority • 10-15 Million Alevis• 85% Turkish speaking, 12% Kurdish• 1 Million Syrian Refugees

Economy

• GDP $1.512 trillion (17th)• Per Capita $19,556 (61st)• The public debt to GDP ratio peaked at 75.9%

during the recession of 2001, falling to an estimated 26.9% by 2013

• from 2002 to 2007 averaged 6.8% growth annually

Government

• Unitary Parliamentary Constitutional Republic• Universal suffrage 1933• President elected for 5 yr terms, extensive

reserve powers. • Prime Minister elected by parliament• Grand National Assembly 550 seats elected to

4 yr terms• Kemalism, Islamism

Kurds

• 10 – 25% of the population

• PKK 1984 – 2013• National Autonomy• Maoist – Leninist

doctrine• ISIS, Kobani

Foreign Relations

• Founding Member of the UN 1945

• 1963 EEC, 1995 EU Customs Unions, 2005 negotiations for full membership

• 2nd Largest standing army in NATO: 495,000

• Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis

• Greece and the Aegean

Regional Power

• Zero problems towards neighbours;• Proactive and pre-emptive peace diplomacy:

facilitating regional reconciliation processes;• Multi-dimensional foreign policy: diversifying

Turkey's alliances to avoid dependence on any actor. NATO and the EU remain the elements of continuity;

• Rhythmic diplomacy: participating in all important global issues and international organisations.

Politics of the Middle East

The Maghreb

Libya• Population 6,244,174 (108th)• GDP $70.386 billion (80th) • Per capita $11,497 (82nd)• 1977 onward, per capita income

in the country rose to more than US $11,000

• 1947 Independence from Italy• 1951 Released from UK French

Mandate• 1969 Muammar Gaddafi seized

power• 2011 Civil War, NATO

intervention• 2014 General Elections

Government

• theoretically governed by a parliament House of Representatives elected in the June 2014 elections

• parliament's control severely limited by the internal conflict with militias, which control Tripoli

• General National Congress elected 2012 to serve until 2014.

• Some members who were not re-elected formed a new General National Congress in Tripoli

• the elected House of Representatives meets in Tobruk

Gaddafi• 1 September 1969, military officers led by 27-year-old army

officer Muammar Gaddafi staged a coup d'état against King Idris

• 2 March 1977, Libya officially became the "Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya".

• Gaddafi officially passed power to General People's Committees, claiming to a symbolic figurehead

• Formally a democracy though the government refused to publish results

• The Green Book 1975- From 1977 • 1986 assassination attempt by US• A gathering of more than 200 African kings and traditional

rulers, meeting August 2008, conferred on Colonel Gaddafi the title "King of Kings of Africa".

Foreign Relations

• Chadian–Libyan conflict 1977• Libya started delivering military supplies to militias

in Chad, then invaded• Libya and Egypt fought a four-day border war• sponsored paramilitary and terrorist groups around

the world • 1986 Airstrike• 1988 Lockerbie Disaster• Return to the international community following

admission of guilt for Lockerbie and compensation paid.

Revolution

• 17 February 2011, National Transnational Council

• NATO intervention, No Fly Zones• October 2011 loyalist forces defeated• July 2012, first parliament elected • Sufi Mosques destroyed, US Embassy attack

Algeria

• Population 38,700,000• GDP $522.6 billion• Per capita $13,788 • Agriculture 14%, industry,

13.4%; public works: 10%; trade: 14.6%; government: 32%; other: 16%

Government

• presidential republic• President elected to 5 yr terms, appoints the PM

who is head of government• People’s National Assembly, 462 seats, limited

legislative power• 2012 elections 44% voter turnout• the military, remains the major power-holder

along with a select group of unelected civilians. These are known as “le pouvoir” (“the power”)

French Rule

• Mass protests against French rule May 1945, met with harsh response. 15,000 deaths

• 1947 Organic Statute of Algeria, ‘meritous’• 1954 – 62 War of Independence• Evian Accords, 1 million French Algerians leave• the exodus deprived the country of most of its

managers, civil servants, engineers, teachers, physicians, and skilled workers.

• Several 100’s of thousands made homeless• 70 %t of the work force was unemployed

Islamists Parties and Government Challenges

• 1989 New Constitution• Islamic Salvation Front won elections with 50% of the vote in 1990• Military intervention followed, crack down on ISF, subsequent

elections postponed. • Low intensity civil conflict with the state continues • Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat• 2006 al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) • 1996 a referendum introduced changes to the constitution,

enhancing presidential powers and banning Islamist parties• Civil Concord was approved in a nationwide referendum 2000

offered amnesty for anti government rebels, 80% decrees in insurgent activity

• In September 2005, another referendum

Morocco

• Population 33,250,000

(39th)• GDP $189.1 billion• Per capita $5,699• 99.9% Muslim• 1956 independence

from France and Spain

Government

• Unitary Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy• King appoints the PM from the majority party and

government ministers• Prime Minister is the head of Government• Parliament approves bills, budget and may dissolve

the government• Assembly of Councillors, 270 members 9 year terms• Assembly of Representatives, 325 members 5 year

terms, 30 seats reserved fro women

Tunisia

• Population 10,982,754• Majority Arab-Berber• GDP $105.347 billion• Per Capita $9,774• Independence from

France 1956

Government• 1956 – 2011 single party state, dominated by

Constitutional Democratic Rally, Habib Bourgiba and Zine el Abidine Ben Ali

• democratic constitutional republic• President head of state, elected to 5 yr terms,

appoints the PM• Prime Minister head of government• Bi-cameral legislature, 23% of seats held by

women, US 17%• court system influenced by French civil law

Revolution• high unemployment, food inflation,

corruption, poor living conditions, freedom of speech

• Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year street vendor, who set himself afire in protest at the confiscation of his goods and humiliation by a municipal official.

• violence erupted following Bouazizi's death• President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down

on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power.

The Periphery

Pakistan, Afghanistan

Pakistan

• Population, 196,174,380• GDP $855 billion • Per Capita $4,699 • Majority Sunni Muslim

Government

• Federal Islamic Republic• Islam is the state religion• President Elected to 5 yr

terms by an Electoral College: Senate, National Assembly and members of the provincial assemblies

• Prime Minister elected from the national assembly

• Senate, elected by equal representation from the 4 provinces

• Passes and initiates legislation, excluding budget• National Assembly, elected to 5 yr terms by

proportional representation• 5% of seats reserved for religious minorities, 50

seats reserved for women• Can impeach the President• Supreme Court, judges appointed by President• Sharia Court, appointed by the President from

former justices of the Supreme court

Foreign Relations

• Close military and economic relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran, US

• Since the Partition of British India, conflicts have erupted in 1947, 1965, 1999

• 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War (East Pakistan)

Nuclear Weapons

• Nuclear capable 1988• 120 – 200 available

warheads• A. Q. Khan network• Gas ultra-centrifuges• Centrifuge technologies

exchanged for missile technologies with N. Korea, as well as deals with Iran and Libya

• Musharraf vs Khan vs Bhutto

ISI and the Taliban

• Developed from the Soviet – Afghan War, Trained by Pakistan, Armed by US and Saudi Arabia

• Attempt to promote a pro-Pakistan government• Following Soviet withdrawal civil war emerged• 1994-1999, 80 to 100 Pakistani’s fought with

the Taliban against Ahmed Shah Masood and the Northern Alliance

Afghanistan Population 31 million Languages: Dari (50%) Pashtu, Uzbek, Turkmen 80% Sunni, 20% Shia

• Pashtun 40%• Tajik 33%• Hazara 11%• Uzbek 9%• Aimak 1%• Turkmen 2%

• Baloch 1%

1979-1999 Soviet – Afghan War• 1979 invasion to support

socialist government• 80% of the country evaded

Soviet control• 1986 Stinger Missile Project• Mujahedeen funded by US,

UK, Saudi, Egypt, China, Iran through Pakistan ISI

• 1992 Government falls• Afghan Arabs• Mujahedeen myth

Taliban

• Peshwar Accord, Islamic State of Afghanistan

• Civil War, Tribal Warlords• Taliban, 1996 – 2001,

Mullah Omar• Northern Alliance• Following 9/11 refusal to

surrender Osama bin Landen resulted in multi-national invasion

Government

• President, elected for 5 yr terms, Head of State, appoints cabinet members and provincial governors with legislative approval

• House of Elders, 1/3 appointed by the President 1/3 elected by provincial councils, 1/3 district councils

• House of the People, Serve 5 yrs elected by proportional representation

Current Situation

• Limited infrastructure• Limited economic growth, narcotics• Power of the central government limited to

major cities• US withdrawal 2014