politics roundup: october 2016blog.zefr.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/zefr... · the candidate...

Politics Roundup: October 2016

Political Candidates On YouTubeOctober 2016

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

160.75M 320.5M 480.25M 640M

636.7

625.7

The Candidate Landscape on YouTube

*ZEFR Political Data October 2016

Candidates Total Weekly Views

Weeks of October 1st - October 31st Donald Trump

625.7M Monthly Views

+19.77% Change in Views Since September

12.5M Monthly

Engagements

30.5K Monthly Uploads

Hillary Clinton

636.7M Monthly Views


11.9M Monthly

Engagements

33K Monthly Uploads

Tim Kaine

Mike Pence

12.25M 23.5M 34.75M 46M

38.3

45.3

The Candidate Landscape on YouTube

Candidates Total Weekly Views

Mike Pence

45.3M Weekly Views

759.8K Weekly

Engagements

6,473 Weekly Uploads

Tim Kaine

38.3M Weekly Views

579.5K Weekly

Engagements

4,544 Weekly Uploads



*ZEFR Political Data October 2016

Weeks of October 1st - October 31st

Wee

kly

View

s

55M

110M

165M

220M

Weeks

2/7-2/122/13-2/192/20-2/262/27-3/43/5-3/113/12-3/183/19-3/253/26-4/14/2-4/84/9-4/154/16-4/224/23-4/294/30-5/65/7-5/135/14-5/205/21-5/275/28-6/36/4-6/106/11-6/176/18-6/246/25-7/17/2/-7/87/9-7/157/16-7/227/23-7/297/30-8/58/6-8/128/13-8/198/20-8/268/27-9/29/3-9/99/10-9/169/17-9/239/24-9/3010/1-10/710/8-10/1410/15-10/2110/22-10/28

Donald TrumpHillary Clinton

Presidential Candidates Leaderboard: Weekly Views

Wee

kly

View

s

55M

110M

165M

220M

Weeks8/27-9/2 9/3-9/9 9/10-9/16 9/17-9/23 9/24-9/30 10/1-10/7 10/8-10/14 10/15-10/21 10/22-10/28


Candidates Leaderboard: Weekly Views September - October

Wee

kly

View

s

73M

147M

220M

Weeks10/1-10/7 10/8-10/14 10/15-10/21 10/22-10/28


Candidates Leaderboard: Weekly Views October 2016

The third and final presidential debate

took place.

FBI Director James Comey announces his intention to

reopen the case against Clinton and her private email server.

At least 10 women come forward with accounts of

sexual assaults committed by Trump.

Trump’s Access Hollywood hot mic recording is leaked,

Wee

kly

View

s

2%

4%

6%

8%

Weeks

2/7-2/122/13-2/192/20-2/262/27-3/43/5-3/113/12-3/183/19-3/253/26-4/14/2-4/84/9-4/154/16-4/224/23-4/294/30-5/65/7-5/135/14-5/205/21-5/275/28-6/36/4-6/106/11-6/176/18-6/246/25-7/17/2-7/87/9-7/157/16-7/227/23-7/297/30-8/58/6-8/128/13-8/198/20-8/268/27-9/29/3-9/99/10-9/169/17-9/239/24-9/3010/1-10/710/8-10/1410/15-10/2110/22-10/28


Candidates Leaderboard: Change in Weekly Views

As the election is nearing its end, both candidates have seen a sharp uptake in week-to-week views.

• This month the Russian hacking group Wikileaks released over 20K pages of emails from Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, giving an unprecedented glimpse into the inner working of the campaign.

• FBI Director James Comey publicly announced that his agency is reopening the case against Clinton and her misuse of a private email server while she was Secretary of State. Comey cited learning the existence of pertinent emails while investigating former NY congressman Anthony Weiner for an unrelated charge. Critics (including Pres. Obama) of Comey and the FBI have accused them of making deliberate efforts to effect the election results.

• By almost all accounts, Clinton was the clear winner of three presidential debates. • Both Pres. Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama have joined Clinton on the campaign trail.

Summary: Political Candidates In October

9

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

• Two days before the 2nd presidential debate, the Washington Post released a hot mic recording and accompanying video from 2005 of Donald Trump’s having a lewd conversation about women with Access Hollywood host Billy Bush. During the debate, Trump referred to the conversation as “locker room talk” and assured viewers that he had never participated in kissing or groping women without their consent. However following this assertion, at least 11 women subsequently came forward with personal incidents of sexual assault by Trump.

• This month, Trump has also begun accusing the US electoral system (and the media) of being rigged against him. President Obama responded to these allegations by telling Trump to “quit whining.”

99.9%

1%1%1%4%

4%

5%

8%

11%17%

20%

23%23% Late Night20% Criticism & Commentary17% Traditional News Coverage11% Live Event Footage8% Full Debate Uploads5% Parodies & Satire4% Digital News4% Al Smith Charity Dinner3% Gaming1% Other1% Clip Roundups1% Campaign Ad (Clinton)1% Informational/Educational

100%

+19.44% View Growth Since

September

12.5M Engagements in

October

625.6M Views Gained in

October

+4.6% Average Change in

Week-to-Week Views

99.9%

Views

The Second Presidential Debate: Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump

(Full Debate) | NBC News

18.8MViews

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Town Hall Debate Cold Open - SNL

Donald Trump

11% of Trump’s views from October came from uploads

surrounding his leaked Access Hollywood hot mic recording. Trump supporter leaves CNN anchor

speechless

Top Donald Trump Videos Uploaded in October:

13.8MViews

33% negative

17% positive

50% neutral

Sentiment:

% of Videos Driven By Fan % of Engagements Driven By Fans% of Views Driven By Fans

99.9%

13.4M

October Metrics:% of Total Views

from Videos Uploaded 10/1-10/31

YouTube Summary: October 1st - October 31st

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVMW_1aZXRk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRlI2SQ0Ueg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPt-TZL4j4o

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Third Debate Cold

Open - SNL

15MViews

The Third Presidential Debate: Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump (Full

Debate) | NBC News

8.3MViews

3%4%

7%8%

14%

24%

35%

35% Criticism & Commentary24% Late Night14% Full Debate Uploads8% Traditional News Coverage7% Parodies & Satire4% Live Event Footage3% Official Campaign Content1% Digital News3% Al Smith Charity Dinner Coverage

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Debate Cold Open - SNL

+19.77% View Growth Since

September

12M Engagements in

October

636.7M Views Gained in

October

Hillary Clinton

+6.5% Average Change in

Week-to-Week Views

Top Hillary Clinton Videos Uploaded in October:

35% negative

8% positive

57% neutral

Sentiment:

99.8%

% of Videos Driven By Fan

95.6%97.9%

% of Engagements Driven By Fans% of Views Driven By Fans

49% of Clinton’s views from October came from content

surrounding all three Presidential debates, whereas only 36% of

Trump’s views were from debate content.

21.1MViews

98.7% 98%

% of Total Views from Videos Uploaded 10/1-10/31

October Metrics:YouTube Summary: October 1st - October 31st

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kjyltrKZSY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smkyorC5qwc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nQGBZQrtT0

Category Definition

Criticism & Commentary Discussions and opinions from either supporters or dissenters of potential political presidents.

Debate Coverage Re-uploaded Presidential Debate content, from clips to entire segments, either by a fan or by an official channel.

Digital News The form of journalism native to and broadcasted exclusively on YouTube.

Interviews Candidates’ official media appearances for broadcast on radio, television, or internet (not including press conferences or debates).

Late Night Clips and Reuploads of Late Night personalities discussing and interviewing candidates on their shows

Live Event Footage Fan and professionally captured footage from political rallies, press events, and unofficial appearances presented without commentary.

Official Campaign Content Content produced and uploaded by an Official Presidential campaign.

Parodies & Satire Comedic exaggerations of candidates, usually containing an underlying criticism of the political system (includes SNL and the Daily Show content).

Re-Uploaded Campaign Ads Re-Uploads of Official Campaign Content by fans on YouTube.

Traditional News Coverage The form of journalism that is initially broadcasted on television, before being uploaded to YouTube.

Clip Roundups Clip roundups are compilations from the news cycle or late night segments edited together as a recap.

Informational/Educational Content intended to educate, explain, or dissect purely based on fact. It is unbiased and not considered news.

Supporters/Protestors Content from, by, or about a candidate’s supporters or protestors only. Does not feature the candidate or his/her event.

Content Category Definitions

Appendix

Political Issues on YouTubeIndependent of the Candidates, ZEFR Tracks Political Issues on YouTube Each Month

Criminal Justice & Reform Environment Foreign Policy LGBTQ Rights Women's Rights Economy Race Relations Immigration Healthcare Education Government Programs & Reform

148K156K211K

112K177K

329K409K

530K

737K673K

2.31M

Political Issues on YouTube

Forecasted Daily Views*

Political Issues Leaderboard

* Forecasted daily views is a proprietary ZEFR algorithm that predicts the growth in views a video or set of videos is likely to gain.

Gun Issues are included within the Criminal Justice category. Gun issues see an avg. forecasted daily view count of 2M and account for 86% of the criminal justice & reform issue category.

The Syrian Refugees Issue is included within the Foreign Policy category. The Syrian Refugee Crisis sees an avg. forecasted daily view count of 95K and account for 12% of the foreign policy category.

The issue of Immigration includes content related to Immigration Control, Reform, and Border Protection. Immigration intersects with Donald Trump content due to his controversial and bombastic stance on the issue.

The issue of Healthcare includes video content related the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare), and Universal Healthcare. Healthcare, while a hot-button political issue, has also become an aspect of pop-culture on YouTube.

March 30th, 2016


175K129K135K116K

266K263K

615K491K

579K

751K

1.85M





Criminal Justice & Reform (including Gun Issues) has decreased in forecasted views for the month of April. Notably Criminal Justice has not been a large issue in April and has not received any particular high profile stories this month. Gun Issues still account for 86% of forecasted views for Criminal Justice & Reform.

Women’s Rights Issues’ forecasted views increased by 50% since last March, mostly in thanks to Donald Trump’s statement regarding women deserving “some form of punishment” for receiving abortions.

The issue of Race Relations within the US has also increased in forecasted views for they month of April (also by 50%). This also points to an incident in earlier this month where Bill Clinton gets into a heated altercation with a BLM protester at a Hillary Clinton rally.

The only Political Issues that saw in increase in forecasted daily views this month were Environment Issues, Women’s Rights, Race Relations, and Government Programs & Reform). The overall forecasted daily views for political issues decreased by 0.05%.

April 30th, 2016

Government Programs & Reform include the Government controlled issue of Voter Rights. Because of incidents of voter suppression in the Arizona primary at the end of May, the issue of Government Reform has seen an increase of forecasted views by almost 100%).


36K27K92K52K71K73K30K

177K

419K403K

912K





Criminal Justice & Reform (including Gun Issues) has decreased in forecasted views for the month of May. The Forecasted Daily Views for the Criminal Justice & Reform issue decreased 50% since last month.

The total forecasted daily views of all political issues fell dramatically in the month of May as a possible symptom of election fatigue. Another possible reason for the slump in forecasted views may be because there haven’t been any presidential debates in the month of May. The total forecasted daily views for political issues fell 179% from last month.

May 27th, 2016

Government Programs & Reform include the Flint Michigan Water Crisis, which has been sorely absent from political discussions since the Democratic Presidential Debate in March. The Forecasted Daily Views for the Flint Michigan Water Crisis is 1,235K Views per day.

Women’s Rights Issues’ forecasted views fell the most of any issues, by over 90% since last April.

The Transgender Bathroom Issue accounts for 15K daily forecasted views or 8% of the LGBTQ Rights daily forecasted views.


73K85K75K134K

296K315K437K488K

836K714K

1.97M





The shooting at an Orlando night club re-ignited the national conversation of gun control in the US. Because of this the forecasted daily views for the Criminal Justice & Reform issue increased 116% since last month.

Because of current global events, this was a big month for political issues. The total forecasted daily views for political issues increased 137% from last month. The only political issue that did not see an increase in forecasted daily views was the issue of Healthcare.

June 30th, 2016

In June, the US Supreme Court declared Texas’ HB2 unconstitutional, striking down Texas’ stringent laws regulating abortion clinics. Daily forecasted views for Women’s Rights increased over 1000% since last May.

In conjunction with the Orlando shooting of a gay night club and Gay Pride festivals occurring in all major US cities in the month of June, the political issue of LGBTQ Rights increased 175% since last May.


72K124K103K105K78K

686K

846K723K

820K

607K

2.12M





Criminal Justice & Reform increased by 7.6% since last month. In July, there were at least 3 cases of black men being shot by the police.

The total forecasted daily views for political issues increased 15% from last month. Perhaps viewers took to YouTube to form opinions and get more information on certain issues addressed during the conventions speeches this month.

July 31st, 2016

Forecasted daily views increased for Women’s Rights by 94%, and LGBTQ Rights by 48% since June. In July, Donald Trump introduced Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, possibly leading viewers to read up on some of Pence’s most notable legislation, which primarily concerns women and the gay community.


326K319K

606K

80K

471K

230K

1.63M

658K

1.51M

722K

852K





Foreign Policy increased by 8.4% since July. Increase in the forecasted views is attributed to the upcoming Snowden movie.

The total forecasted daily views for political issues increased 9% from last month. As we’re getting closer to the election, viewers are becoming more inclined to research political issues and were certain candidates stand on them. With an exception of Criminal Justice Reform and Immigration, all political issues saw an increase in forecasted daily views in August.

August 31st, 2016

Forecasted daily views increased for Women’s Rights by 9.2% since July. Conversations surrounding women’s rights increased after Clinton’s historical nomination.

Forecasted views for Healthcare increased by 48%. Last month, Obama’s ACA had a major loss and a major win, including losing the insurance company Aetna as an insurance provider but also helping to achieve the lowest amount of uninsured Americans in US history.

Race Relations forecasted views also increased by 50%. This month Trump focused on courting Black voters, asking “what do you have to lose?”


214K116K

311K186K

421K523K

1.04M

1.57M

999K

693K

1.03M





Criminal Justice and Reform increased by 21% since August. Increase in the forecasted views is attributed to the issue’s coverage in the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Debate, from addressing racial justice to gun safety.

The total forecasted daily views for political issues increased 26% from last August. Interest in researching political issues in preparation for the upcoming debates may have played an part in this growth of views.

September 30th, 2016

LGBTQ Rights decreased in forecasted daily views by 4%. Early in September, the NCAA ruled move 7 Championship events out of North Caroline due to the HB2 (Bathroom Bill) Law


481K

169K

1.01M

170K

968K

426K

947K

682K

1.07M

2.86M2.39M





Environmental Political Issues increased 312% since September. October the beginning of increased coverage of the Dakota Access Pipeline protests. On social media, hashtags such as #NoDAPL and #IStandWithStandingRock have emerged.

The total forecasted daily views for political issues increased 64% from last September. As we draw closer to the end this high-stakes election, viewers turn to YouTube to solidify their stances in regards to certain topical political issues .

October 31st, 2016

Political issues surrounding Healthcare have increased in forecasted daily views by 224% from last month. Late in October, it was reported that nationwide health care premiums would increase in 2017 eliciting much criticism from those against the ACA.

politics roundup: october 2016blog.zefr.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/zefr... · the candidate...

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