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7/30/2019 Politics Updates Fri Grapevine

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2/25

AT: Economy = Romney

The economy is growing, which favors Obama.

John Sides August 23, 2012 (prof of political science, George Washington University, Where the

Presidential Race Stands Now http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/23/where-the-presidential-race-stands-now/)

Ive not done a lot of meta-blogging about the presidential race because, to be honest, there hasnt

been much to say. Not much has changed in the last two months. In fact, explaining the lack of

changenamely, the stability in the pollsis probably the most important task here on the eve of party

conventions, which should finally produce at least some change.

Why so little change? First, the economic newsalthough suggesting a slowdown in growthisnt

dramatic enough to change the underlying fundamentals. Moreover, as I said on The Cycle, without

any dramatic trend the resulting balance of economic indicators is favorable for Obama, though not

strongly so. This is, in part, why the forecasting model that Lynn Vavreck, Seth Hill, and I helped

develop for Wonkblog, suggested Obama would win. Lynn and I reach the same conclusion with a

elaborated forecasting exercise in The Hand Youre Dealt. This is, in part, why forecasts that build in

economic indicatorsas at 538 and Votamaticsuggest the same. And yet people still think Obama

should be losing because of the economy. That is simply not the case. The state of the economy does

not guarantee him victory but neither does it presage defeat.


3/25

AT: Polls are biased:

Even if polls are biased, they are predictably biased; forecast models still show an

Obama win.NATE SILVER September 5, 2012 (renowned election forecaster, The Simple Case for Why Obama Isthe Favorite http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-

obama-is-the-favorite/)

Ive been tiptoeing around this point, because I dont think that our forecast model ought to represent the totality of our analysis about the

election. But if you look at the right-hand column of this page, youll notice that our forecast has moved toward President

Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a three-in-four chance of winning the

Electoral College on Nov. 6. Ill explain a little bit more about how the model comes to that conclusion in a moment, but the

intuition behind it is pretty simple: 1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just

held his convention. 2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below-

average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an

almost exact tie in the race. 3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now,

then he will eventually lose. The first point is the simplest of all, but perhaps the most important. There is a lot of focus on thebounce that a candidate gets after his convention that is, how the polls conducted just after the convention compare with the ones taken

immediately beforehand. But the more instructive comparison may be how the post-convention polls track with the actual election result its

Nov. 6 that were really concerned about, after all. On average, between 1968 and 2008, the challenging candidate led by 10 percentage points

in polls conducted just after his convention. By comparison, the challenging candidate eventually lost the popular vote by an average of three

points in these years. That means the post-convention polls overrated the challenger by an average of 13 points. The good news for Mr.

Romney is that this tendency has been growing smaller over time. However, it hasnt necessarily disappeared. In 1992, Bill Clinton led by more

than 20 points after his convention, but his actual winning margin was only about six. In 2000, George W. Bush came out of his convention in

Philadelphia with about a 10-point lead in the polls but he eventually lost the popular vote. John Kerry, in 2004, got very little bounce from

his convention. But Mr. Kerry nevertheless came into his convention with a lead, and he maintained it then he lost the popular vote by about

two points instead. There were also two recent cases in which the post-convention polls did not overrate the standing of the challenging

candidate. In 1996, Bob Dole trailed by about nine points immediately after the Republican convention in San Diego, which is the same margin

by which he eventually lost to Mr. Clinton. And in 2008, Mr. Obama led by about four points after his convention in Denver, but won by a wider

margin, seven points, instead. Both 1996 and 2008 are slightly odd cases, however. In 1996, the polls had Mr. Clinton ahead of Mr. Dole by

double-digits almost the whole way through the campaign, including on Election Day itself; the period right after the Republican convention

that year was about the lone exception. So this may have been a case of two wrongs making a right: the polls were persistently biased toward

Mr. Clinton, and Mr. Doles convention bounce counteracted that temporarily. And in 2008, its not quite clear what would have happened if

not for the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which occurred about two weeks after the party conventions. Mr. Obama very probably still would

have won, but it might have been by a smaller margin had the economic problems not become so acute so quickly. Certainly, Mr. Romney could

benefit from a parallel to either of these circumstances. The election is close enough that if there is even a modest bias in the polls toward Mr.

Obama, the presidents chances will be tenuous. And the economic recovery is tepid enough that if there is some intervening event, such as in

Europe, then some voters who were willing to give Mr. Obama the benefit of the doubt may change their minds. But that isnt how you draw

these things up. You dont want your chances to come down to the residual chance of a polling error or an October surprise. You want to be

ahead after your party convention not just tied, something that even Walter F. Mondale had (very briefly) managed to do in 1984. The

forecast model had no expectation of a double-digit bounce for Mr. Romney. This year the polls have been hard to move for any reason. By the

models logic, that implies that the conventions wouldnt move them much either. But since Mr. Romneys deficit with Mr. Obama was very

narrow (he trailed by about two percentage points heading into the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla.) it wouldnt have taken much of a

bounce to put him ahead. Specifically, the models assumption was that the post-Tampa polls would overrate Mr.

Romneys eventual finish by about four percentage points. Thats why the forecast has moved toward

Mr. Obama over the last several days. It sees a bunch of polls showing a tie in the race, and interprets them as tantamount to afour-point Obama lead, since they were taken in the midst of what should be a high point for Mr. Romney. Now that the Democratic

convention has begun in Charlotte, N.C., the pressure will be on Mr. Obama. For two weeks or so after Thursday, the model will subtract a point

or two from Mr. Obamas column in the polls. But Mr. Obama seems to have more control of his own destiny right

now.If he carries even a modest bounce out of Charlotte, hell remain in the front -runners position.And if Mr. Obama gets a bounce thats abit better than modest say, he leads in the national polls by in the neighborhood five or six points next week, as Mr. Bush did following his

convention in 2004 Mr. Romneys position will start to look fairly grim. It may be presumptuous, of course, to assume that Mr. Obama will

get any bounce at all. And even a strong speech in Charlotte could seem futile if we get a poor jobs report on Friday. By this time next week, we

could be talking about how Mr. Romneys two-point bounce looks good compared with Mr. Obamas zero-point bounce. But we have to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/


4/25

evaluate the data as it comes in. Being only tied in the polls immediately after his own convention is

unambiguously a bearish sign for Mr. Romney and probably the most tangible sign to date that Mr.

Obama is the favorite.

We account for poll bias: high threshold for results still puts Obama ahead.

NATE SILVER September 14, 2012 (After Convention Bounce, Holding Obamas Polls to a HigherStandard http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/sept-13-after-convention-bounce-

holding-obamas-polls-to-a-higher-standard/)

On Thursday at 6:30 p.m. Eastern time, there was a deluge of comments in my Twitter feed when NBC News and Marist University

released poll results showing President Obama with clear leads in three swing states. Mr. Obama led

by five points in their polls of Virginia and Florida, and by seven in their poll of Ohio. These are undoubtedlygood surveys for Mr. Obama, and they came in crucial states. And yet, our forecast model did not move toward Mr. Obama on Thursday.

Instead, Mr. Obamas forecast declined slightly; the model now gives him a 78.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, versus 80.7

percent on Wednesday. Part of this is because the other polling data released on Thursday was not as strong for Mr. Obama as the set of NBC-

Marist polls, but let me make a broader point first. We have seen a shift toward Mr. Obama in the polls since the

Democratic convention. It appears that if an election were held today, hed win it by somewhere in

the neighborhood of four or perhaps five percentage points. If Mr. Obama is ahead by four to five points nationally,wed certainly also expect him to post his share of leads by about that margin in swing states. Because of statistical variance and differences in

methodology, some of the numbers are going to be a little bit better for him than others. But the

consensus of the data ought to quite strong for him. The Marist polls probably did meet that standard.

But there were also two other polls of Ohio released on Thursday that showed Mr. Obama up only

one point instead, along with a trio of Florida polls showing a tie there, on average. Those arent bad numbersfor Mr. Obama exactly, but they arent great ones either they are more like those we were seeing from the polling firms in question before

the conventions. There were also polls out on Thursday in several other swing states in New Hampshire, Michigan and Colorado, for

example. The data, taken as a whole, was pretty good for Mr. Obama, as he led in almost all of the surveys, although mostly by small margins.

But the forecast model is now judging Mr. Obama by a higher standard. Why? Because it had more or

less fully priced in his convention bounce as of a few days ago. In fact, its assumption is that Mr. Obamas polls

probably slightly exaggerate his standing right now. To meet the new normal that the model expects, it wont be

enough for Mr. Obama to have pretty good polls. Hell need to have his share of very good ones, likethe Marist polls. After another week or two, the pressure will be relieved on Mr. Obama somewhat, since at that point it will become

safer to conclude that whatever bounce he received after his convention may be permanent. But ifMr. Obamas state polling

results in the interim are merely pretty good, the model may revert to having a merely pretty good

forecast for him meaning, more like a 70 percent chance of winning re-election, which is about where it hadhim before the conventions, rather than closer to 80 percent, as it now shows.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/sept-13-after-convention-bounce-holding-obamas-polls-to-a-higher-standard/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/sept-13-after-convention-bounce-holding-obamas-polls-to-a-higher-standard/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/sept-13-after-convention-bounce-holding-obamas-polls-to-a-higher-standard/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/sept-13-after-convention-bounce-holding-obamas-polls-to-a-higher-standard/


5/25

Obama Winning Florida

Obama winning Florida, Virginia, and Ohio now.Murray September 14, 2012 (Mark, Senior Political Editor, NBC News Polls: Obama holds the edge in

Florida, Ohio and Virginia http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?lite FYI: More than 1,300 registered voters were surveyed

in each of the three states, and the margin of error for those voters is plus-minus 2.7 percentage points.)

After two political conventions and heading into the post-Labor Day sprint, President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee

Mitt Romney in the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, according to new NBC News/Wall Street

Journal/Maristpolls of each of these three states. In both Florida and Virginia, Obama is ahead of Romney by five

points among likely voters (including those leaning toward a particular candidate), 49 percent to 44

percent. In Ohio, the presidents lead is seven points, 50 percent to 43 percent. Among a larger pool of

registered voters, Obamas advantage over Romney slightly increases to 7 points in Virginia, 8 in

Florida and 9 in Ohio. Youd rather be in Obamas shoes than Romneys in these three critical states, Lee Miringoff, director of the

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the poll results. First Thoughts: A tricky situation But he adds that Obamas leads are

not insurmountable, especially as the two candidates prepare for their first presidential debate on Oct. 3 in Colorado. These statesall of which Obama carried in 2008 but which George W. Bush won in 2004 represent three of the most crucial battlegrounds in the 2012

presidential election. And according to NBCs electoral map, Romney likely needs to capture at least two of these states, if not all three, to

secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency. By comparison, Obama can reach 270 by winning just one or two of these

battlegrounds on top of the other states already considered to be in his column. (Obama also has an additional path to victory without any of

these three states if he wins the toss-up contests of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.) Whats particularly striking

about these polls, Miringoff observes, is how most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds, with just 5 to 6

percent saying theyre undecided, and with more than 80 percent signaling that they strongly support their candidate.

Obama winning Florida

Morissey September 122012 (http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/12/survey-usa-poll-puts-

obama-up-4-in-florida/ Survey USA poll puts Obama up 4 in Florida posted at 1:21 pm on September

12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey)

Weve looked at polling from a pretty skeptical point ofview after the convention, but not every poll has hidden good news

for Republicans. Yesterdays Survey USA poll in the key swing state of Florida is one example. A survey taken over the weekend showed

Barack Obama riding a little post-convention bounce and the incumbent Senator with a wide lead over his Republican challenger: In

pivotal Florida, Barack Obama comes out of the Democratic National Convention 4 points atop Mitt

Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Romney leads among Floridas white voters, but that

lead is erased by Floridas minorities: Obama leads by 16 points among Cubans, by 36 points among non-Cuban

Hispanics, and by 67 points among African Americans. Romney leads by 5 points among men, but that is trumped by Obamas 12 point leadamong women. Romney leads in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest Florida, but that advantage is overcome by Obamas strength in

Southeast Florida, and Obamas comparative strong standing in critical Central FL, where Obama today leads by 6. Romney leads among votersage 50+, but Obama leads by even more among voters age 18 to 49. Party affiliation cancels itself out: Romney holds 84% of Republicans,

Obama holds 84% of Democrats, Independents split. Obama leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year, Romney leads among those

earning more than $80,000 a year. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, conducted at a time when Obama attack ads about Bain Capital

were airing unanswered, there is effectively no change in the race. Then, Obama led by 5 points. Now, Obama leads by 4 points, a nominal 1-

point difference. Obama today has a Plus 1 Net Favorability, Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability. In the contest for United States Senator,

Democrat Bill Nelson is in dramatically better shape than he was when SurveyUSA last polled the contest 8 weeks ago. Then, Republican Connie

Mack led Nelson by 6 points. Today, Nelson leads Mack by 11, a 17-point left turn. The change is particularly dramatic in Central FL, where, 8

weeks ago, Mack led by 5, now trails by 15, a 20-point swing. Among Independents, Mack had led by 4, now trails by 14, an 18-point swing.

The sample data suggests that the race between Obama and Romney might be a bit closer than the

already-close figure. The poll has a D/R/I of 41/36/23, which compares to 2008s 37/34/29 and 2010s 36/36/29 exit polling. In 2008,
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?litehttp://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?litehttp://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/12/survey-usa-poll-puts-obama-up-4-in-florida/http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/12/survey-usa-poll-puts-obama-up-4-in-florida/http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/12/survey-usa-poll-puts-obama-up-4-in-florida/http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/12/survey-usa-poll-puts-obama-up-4-in-florida/http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?litehttp://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/13/13848313-polls-obama-holds-the-edge-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia?lite


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Obama won Florida independents by 7 points on the way to a 3-point victory, 51/48. In this poll, Obama still leads independents, but only

within the MOE at 41/39. Recalculated, that would tend to draw the two opponents into a tie, since its unlikely that well see a better

Democratic turnout in Florida this year than in 2008. It still doesnt put Romney ahead although the very low 41% for Obama among

independents suggests that many late breakers wont be inclined to go in his direction, as late breakers usually come on strong for the non-

incumbent. The age demos are even more intriguing than independents. Survey USA has four age demos, and their sample breaks almost

evenly across them: 18-34: 24% of the sample 35-49: 26% 50-64: 26% 65+: 24% Those dont reflect the breakdowns in exit polling from the last

two electoral cycles, however. The exit polls break out age demos differently, but its not difficult to see how far off this sample is from the

2008 race: 18-29: 15% 30-44: 25% 45-64: 37% 65+: 22% Romney only wins the senior vote outright at 55/41, though he edges Obama among

50-64YOs 47/46. This poll seems to oversample younger voters by a wide margin, where Obama wins 54-37. Still, this doesnt look like verygood news when one considers the effort by the GOP to woo the Sunshine State by holding the convention in Tampa. The eleven-point lead by

Bill Nelson over Connie Mack also looks like bad news for GOP efforts in the state, especially with Mack only getting 29% of independents so

far. Nelsons vulnerable at 47%, but Mack has a long way to go to catch up and not too much time to do it. Meanwhile, Rasmussen

shows the national convention bump for Obama almost entirely dissipated: The Rasmussen Reports

daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 46%

of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, andfive percent (5%) are undecided.


7/25

Obama winning Virginia

Obama winning Virginia

Perry Stein Sep 14, 2012 (http://www.nbcwashington.com/blogs/first-read-dmv/Morning-Read-New-

Poll-Shows-Obama-Leading-In-Virginia-Kaine-And-Allen-Tied-169755386.html)

A new poll puts Obama ahead of Romney in the battleground state of Virginia, 49 to 44 percent. TheNBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls found that Obama carries the same five-point lead in Florida and a seven-point lead in Ohio. Obama

won Virginia in 2008, but that victory marked the first time a Democrat carried the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Obama also won

Florida and Ohio in 2008. Only 5 percent of voters are still undecided, a figure that will make it harder for

Romney to catch up in the state.

Obama winning Virginia: multiple reasons

USA TODAY Sep. 05, 2012 (tucsoncitizen.com/usa-today-news/2012/0a9/05/warner-obama-can-win-virginia-again/ Warner: Obama can win Virginia again)

CHARLOTTE- Mark Warner is a current senator and former governor from a state that has become an epicenter of presidential politics: The Old

Dominion of Virginia. Once considered a safe Republican state in presidential politics, Virginia went for Obama by 6 percentage points in 2008;

another win could be decisive for Obama in this years race against Republican Mitt Romney.Im optimistic, Warner told a group of USA

TODAY reporters and editors, though he added: Its going to be close.Warner cited several advantages for Obama in

Virginia, including demographics that are shifting in favor of Democratic candidates. That includes a

growing number of young voters, he said. The states considerable number of veterans and military

families is also a potential source of votes for Obama over Romney, Warner said. Four years ago, Obama ranagainst a bona fide war hero in John McCain, and probably lost votes because of it, Warner said. This time the Republican candidate

(Romney) has no military experience, while Obama is running as a tested commander-in-chief.Warner also predicted that

Obama would benefit from a hotly contested U.S. Senate race between two other former governors:

Democrat Tim Kaine against Republican George Allen . In 2008, Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate

to win Virginia since President Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Another new factor this time around: A third party candidate

specific to Virginia. Former Rep. Virgil Goode has qualified for the ballot. A former Democrat and a former Republican, Goode is well

known among Virginia conservatives and many Republicans worry that Goode could cost Romney votes, and

perhaps this most crucial state.

Copyright 2012 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.

AM Read

Morning Read: New Poll Shows Obama Leading In Virginia, Kaine And Allen Tied

By Perry Stein

| Friday, Sep 14, 2012 | Updated 9:04 AM EDT

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AM Read: Obama Leading In Va.
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8/25

Poll shows the state divided between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

A new poll puts Obama ahead of Romney in the battleground state of Virginia, 49 to 44 percent.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls found that Obama carries the same five-point lead in

Florida and a seven-point lead in Ohio.

Obama won Virginia in 2008, but that victory marked the first time a Democrat carried the state since

Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Obama also won Florida and Ohio in 2008.

Only 5 percent of voters are still undecided, a figure that will make it harder for Romney to catch up in

the state.

Among likely voters in Virginia, the poll also found that 49 percent approve with the job Obama is doing

as president while 44 percent disapprove.

Youd rather be in Obamas shoes than Romneys in these three critical states, Lee Miringoff, directorof the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the poll results.

NBCs Senior Political Editor Mark Murray wrote that Romney will likely need to win at least two of these

states, if not all three, to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

Obama just needs to win one of these states in addition to the states hes already assumed to win.

Murray writes that if Obama loses all three of the states, he could still secure the presidency if he wins

the undecided states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

And in the highly anticipated Virginia senate race between two former governors, the results are onceagain tied.

Forty-six percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for Kaine, while forty-six percent of voters support

Allen. Eight percent of voters are undecided.

The polls have a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

IN OTHER NEWS:

* Michelle Obama rallies supporters in Richmond

* Virginia Board of Health to vote on abortion regulations today

* Sen. Rand Paul endorses AG Ken Cuccinelli for Virginia governor.

* Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley hires adviser for new PAC

* D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray opens center for early childhood education


9/25

* Grays administration plans to extend current Medicaid managed care contracts five months beyond

their April 30, 2013, expiration date.

* D.C. launches campaign to fight transgender discrimination

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/politics-national/romney-pushes-to-increase-polling-lead-

over-obama-in-battleground-virginia-653210/

Romney pushes to increase polling lead over Obama in battleground Virginia

September 13, 2012 1:48 pm

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By Tracie Mauriello / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

FAIRFAX, Va. -- An enthusiastic crowd of northern Virginians today welcomed Mitt Romney to an

outdoor rally at Van Dyck Park, where the former Massachusetts governor promised to help shape

world events rather than be at the mercy of them.

The Republican presidential nominee, Mr. Romney said the country is in mourning after Wednesday's

deadly attack on the American embassy in Benghazi, Libya.

He neither reiterated nor backed off his earlier criticism of the Obama administration's reaction time

and apologetic tone in responding to the attack.

Rather, he quickly segued into his standard stump speech by saying that a stronger military will bring a

strong economy.

He promised to work toward energy independence, smarter trade policy, better schools, smallergovernment and a business-friendly climate.

Fresh off earlier campaign stops in Virginia Beach and Richmond, Mr. Romney's aim here was to

continue opening up a gap in Virginia, where a Gravis Marketing poll this week showed him leading 49

percent to 44 percent over President Obama.

The president didn't lose any ground in the poll, but Mr. Romney picked up previously undecided voters

in this historically red state, where last week he unleashed a string of targeted campaign commercials

drumming home the theme that "Here in Virginia we're not better under Barack Obama."

Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin congressman, is continuing the campaign's hard push

through the state with a stump speech in Rockingham County and a fund-raiser Friday in Roanoke.

It will be his fifth visit to Virginia since becoming Mr. Romney's running mate.

Mr. Romney has visited Virginia nine times since February.

The Obama campaign, meanwhile, is trying to reclaim Virginia by sending first lady Michelle Obama to

headline campaigns in Richmond and Fredericksburg.


10/25

The flurry of campaign activity reinforces Virginia's status as a potentially crucial state in this election.

With 13 electoral votes and enough swing voters to make a difference in a tight race, this battleground

state is a prime target that both campaigns believe to be up for grabs.

According to the campaign, about 2,700 people attended Mr. Romney's Van Dyck Park rally. Four years

ago, Arizona candidate John McCain and

then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin drew about 23,000 to a campaign rally at the same park, according to some

published reports.

Supporter Joan Quill, a retired math teacher from Fairfax, said Mr. Romney's gave a thoughtful speech,

but that she's looking forward to

the presidential debates when he'll have to say more about foreign policy.

"I want to hear him talk about how he's going to handle crises [like the Libyan embassy attack] more,"she said.

She also wants him to elaborate on his immigration policy and to distinguish his policy from the

president's by letting voters know that he'll put America's interests ahead of those of the United

Nations, whose members tend to avoid interventionism, she said.

She also wanted to hear more about Libya.

"When embassies are attacked, we need a reasonable response," she said. "I would have thought [Mr.

Obama] would have acted more promptly."

Washington Bureau Chief Tracie Mauriello: [email protected] or 703-996-9292.First Published September 13, 2012 1:48 pm

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/politics-national/romney-pushes-to-increase-

polling-lead-over-obama-in-battleground-virginia-653210/#ixzz26Sl4y8qa

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/13/obama-builds-lead-over-

ro_n_1881995.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012

Obama Builds Lead Over Romney In Colorado, Post-Conventions: OnSight/Keating Poll

The Huffington Post | By Matt Ferner Posted: 09/13/2012 5:46 pm Updated: 09/13/2012 5:46 pm

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Obama Romney Colorado

Barack Obama leads in Colorado over Mitt Romney, according to a new OnSight/Keating poll.

A new poll released today from OnSight Public Affairs/Keating Research gives President Barack Obama a

five-point lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney in Colorado.

This the first survey of likely Colorado voters since the party conventions and it appears that the

Democratic National Convention connected with a key voting block in the Centennial State: unaffiliated

voters.

Of the 503 likely Colorado voters OnSight/Keating surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Obama

while 44 percent said they would vote for Romney, if the election were held today.

According to OnSight/Keating, Obama's lead over Romney in Colorado is due largely to growing support

from unaffiliated voters. In August during a similar poll conducted by OnSight/Keating, Obama lead

Romney with unaffiliated voters 50 percent to 36 percent, now less than a month later Obama hasadded nine points to his advantage -- 55 percent to 32 percent.

The fact that the race for Colorado is still very close may be the only good news for Mitt Romney

coming out of the conventions, said Mike Melanson, senior partner at OnSight Public Affairs, said in a

statement. Romney needed to improve his likability, but it appears Coloradans find him less likable

than they did before the convention. Meanwhile, Obama has made significant gains among unaffiliated

voters and maintained a solid lead among women.

The poll had more good news for Obama and his favorability rating among Colorado voters -- 51 percent

are now favorable toward Obama while 47 percent are are favorable toward Romney. But the

president's favorability standing was most improved among unaffiliated voters, going from a 52 percent

favorable/43 percent unfavorable rating in August to a 55-42 split currently. For Romney, unaffiliated

voters resoundingly see the GOP candidate unfavorably -- 59 percent say they view Romney unfavorably

while only 37 percent view him favorably -- a substantial shift from his 56-40 unfavorable/favorable split

in August.

The Huffington Post's Pollster estimate, which is currently tracking 20 polls including the

OnSight/Keating poll, shows a tight race with Obama leading Romney in Colorado by a slimmer margin,


12/25

48.9 percent to 46 percent. That's a one point increase for Obama and no change for Romney in

Colorado, since August.

Nationally, the Pollster average of 443 polls gives Obama a lead over Romney by more than three

percentage points, 48.5 percent to 45.3 percent as of Thursday -- an increase for Obama since

OnSight/Keating's August poll when Obama led by less than one percentage point nationally.

The two candidates remain virtually tied among men (46 percent for Obama, 45 for Romney) and

actually tied among whites (46 percent), while women and Hispanics continue to heavily favor the

president. Women favor Obama 51 percent to 43 percent, while 67 percent of Hispanics favor Obama.

The poll from OnSight, a Democratic group whose founding partner Mike Melanson managed the

campaigns of both Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Mark Udall, was based on a 500 live

telephone interviews conducted August 21-22. Read the full poll results and question wording here.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/13/colorado-ohio-divided-between-presidential-

candidates/

21 hours agoColorado, Ohio divided between presidential candidates

politicalmugshot

Posted by

CNN Political Unit

(CNN) - New polls released Thursday showed the battleground states of Colorado and Ohio remain

statistically tied between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Likely voters in Ohio put Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%, and in Colorado, likely voters split 49% for

Obama and 47% for Romney, according to the surveys by American Research Group. The sampling error

of each survey was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

In Colorado, the race was close across gender and age, as well as tied among independent voters.

Independents went 48% to 45% for Obama over Romney. Younger voters and older voters were similarly

divided between the two candidates. And among women, where other polls have shown Romney

lagging behind Obama, ARG showed 50% went for the incumbent and 56% for the challenger.

In early August, Colorado was divided 45% for Obama and 50% for Romney, according to a poll

conducted by Quinnipiac University for CBS News and the New York Times.

The Ohio survey showed deeper divides. Romney held a lead of 16 points among independents, and

lagged 10 points behind Obama among women. Men leaned towards Romney but were divided along

the sampling error.

A mid-August Quinnipiac survey in the Buckeye State also showed the Ohio race tied up.


13/25

Both Colorado, with 9 electoral votes, and Ohio, with 18 votes, are toss up states on the CNN Electoral

Map. In 2008, Obama won Colorado by nine points and Ohio by five points.

The vice presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle campaigned on Wednesday in Ohio, and

President Barack Obama stumped in Colorado on Thursday.

http://themoderatevoice.com/159806/polls-obama-ahead-in-michigan-and-colorado/

Polls: Obama Ahead in Michigan and Colorado

Sep 13, 2012 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Randall Enos, Cagle Cartoons

Two new polls show President Barack Obama pulling ahead in Michigan and Colorado. The Michigan poll

is especially jarring:

President Barack Obama, fresh off a Democratic National Convention in which the turnaround ofMichigans signature auto industry played a central role, heads into the final 2 months of the campaign

with the states voters solidly behind him.

A poll done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and other media partners

showed Obama with a commanding 10-point lead over Michigan-born-and-raised Mitt Romney, whose

chances in the state may have been seriously hurt by last weeks Democratic convention in Charlotte.

Democrats made the 2009 rescue of General Motors and Chrysler and the jobs it saved nationwide

a central theme of the convention, with autoworkers, UAW President Bob King and former Michigan

Gov. Jennifer Granholm among the speakers.

When the whole theme for the Democrats is Osama bin Laden is dead and GM is alive thats got to

help in Michigan and Ohio and a couple other states as well, said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn.

n EPIC-MRAs last statewide poll, an automated survey taken Aug. 28 before Ann Romney spoke at the

Republican National Convention in Tampa, laying out a case for her husband Mitt to be elected, Obama

held a slim 49%-46% lead over Romney. In the new poll, conducted from Saturday through Tuesday,

Obama led Romney 47% -37%.

EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely November voters for the poll which has a margin of error of plus or

minus 4 percentage points.

Obama leads among the key bloc of independent voters 36% to 27%, with 37% undecided perhaps

giving Romney room to improve. But in past EPIC-MRA polls, Romney led among independents,

suggesting they may be having second thoughts.

Obama also led among both men (42%-40%) and women (52%-36%) and there was also sharp break in

voter motivation: While 76% of the presidents supporters said they were voting for him as opposed to

21% who said they were voting against Romney, only 54% of Romneys supporters were voting

specifically for him, while 43% who were voting against Obama.


14/25

In Colorado:

The first poll of Colorado voters since the Democratic National Convention shows President Barack

Obama with a five point lead over Republican Mitt Romney, FOX31 Denver is first to report.

The new survey by OnSight Public Affairs and Project New America, showing Obama with a 49-44

percent lead over Romney, was released Thursday morning, just hours before Obamas campaign is set

to rally supporters in Golden.

The survey of 500 likely Colorado voters shows only a one point post-DNC bounce for Obama, who

had a 48-44 percent lead over Romney in the last poll conducted by OnSight three weeks ago on the eve

of the Republican National Convention.

Colorado appears to be Obamas to lose at this point, OnSights Mike Melanson told FOX31 Denver.

Hes consolidating his advantage with women voters and, more importantly, with unaffiliated voters.

In the Aug. 24 survey, Obama lead Romney among women voters by a 51-44 percent margin; thatmargin is mostly unchanged with Obama now ahead 51-43 percent.

Notably, Obama broadened his advantage with unaffiliated voters, which stood at 50-36 back in

August and is now at 55-32, according to OnSights pollster, Chris Keating.

I just got back from 3 weeks in Colorado: nearly two weeks in Pueblo and the rest of the time in Boulder.

And I found one motif I found among voters who were either independent or didnt consider

themselves liberal Democrats in both cities was: they dont like Paul Ryan and they feel the party is too

beholden to its right wing and not speaking to them.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120913/NEWS15/309130243/President-Barack-Obama-takes-command-in-Michigan-poll-shows?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|p

President Barack Obama takes command in Michigan, poll shows

September 13, 2012 |

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A

A

Left, President Barack Obama greets supporters in Ann Arbor in Jan., right, Mitt Romney greets

supporters in Novi in Feb.

Left, President Barack Obama greets supporters in Ann Arbor in Jan., right, Mitt Romney greets

supporters in Novi in Feb. / AP photos

By Todd Spangler and Kathleen Gray

Detroit Free Press Staff Writers

Filed Under

Local News


15/25

Politics/Election 2012

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What Michigan voters say about Obama, Romney

What Michigan voters say about Obama, Romney

Zoom

President Barack Obama, fresh off a Democratic National Convention in which the turnaround of

Michigan's signature auto industry played a central role, heads into the final two months of thecampaign with the state's voters solidly behind him.

A poll done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and other media partners

showed Obama with a commanding 10-percentage-point lead over Michigan-born-and-raised Mitt

Romney, whose chances in the state may have been seriously hurt by last week's Democratic

convention in Charlotte, N.C.

Democrats made the 2009 rescue of General Motors and Chrysler -- and the jobs it saved nationwide -- a

central theme of the convention, with autoworkers, UAW President Bob King and former Michigan Gov.

Jennifer Granholm among the speakers.

"When the whole theme for the Democrats is Osama bin Laden is dead and GM is alive ... that's got to

help in Michigan and Ohio and a couple other states, as well," said Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA.

In EPIC-MRA's last statewide poll, an automated survey taken Aug. 28 before Ann Romney spoke at the

Republican National Convention in Tampa, laying out a case for her husband to be elected, Obama held

a 49%-46% lead. In the new poll, conducted Saturday through Tuesday, Obama led Romney 47%-37%.

EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely November voters for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus

4 percentage points.

Obama leads among independent voters -- a crucial segment -- 36%-27%, with 37% undecided. That

might be Romney's best hope to close the gap. Past EPIC-MRA polls showed Romney leading among

independents.

Obama also led among both men (42%-40%) and women (52%-36%), and there was sharp break in voter

motivation: While 76% of the president's supporters said they were voting for him as opposed to 21%

who said they were voting against Romney, only 54% of Romney's supporters were voting specifically

for him, while 43% said they were voting against Obama.


16/25

Obama led in the tri-counties: Macomb (52%-43%), Oakland (53%-33%) and Wayne (56%-30%). Romney

would almost certainly need a stronger showing in Oakland and Macomb to win Michigan.

While 29% of Obama's supporters credit the job he has done on the economy as a major reason for their

support, 51% of Romney's supporters said his plan for the economy was driving their support.

It wasn't enough for Lauri Schippert, 52, of Roseville, who lost her job as an administrative assistant last

December when her employer closed the business. She said she still believes Obama provides a better

plan for the future.

"He's moving the country in the right direction, and the economy has improved," she said. "My job

search has gotten better in the last couple of months. I've had some interviews, and I'm getting some

good bites."

The poll results may help explain why conservative groups supporting Romney -- including Americans for

Prosperity and American Crossroads -- targeted other swing states with a TV ad campaign while

Michigan was conspicuously absent from the list.

"The dynamics of the race are constantly changing in all of the battleground states," American

Crossroads spokesman Nate Hodson said earlier this week. "Right now, that led us to dedicate resources

elsewhere, but that doesn't eliminate Michigan."

Hodson wouldn't comment on how the group reached its conclusion after it and other anti-Obama

groups spent upward of $10 million on TV advertising in Michigan so far this year.

Michael Traugott, with the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, said private polls

determine how and where the Republican-leaning groups spend their money.

"That's really the issue," he said. "Would the money do better in other states than in Michigan?"

The new poll shows Obama with a larger lead than national polls suggest. He's also ahead of his 2008

pace: At this stage of the campaign, he led by low to mid-single digits against Republican nominee Sen.

John McCain.

Going forward, Michigan could be dropped from the list of states expected to be hotly contested.

Recent polls show the closest matchups in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North

Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

"We don't consider Michigan one of those (swing) states," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the

Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington, D.C-based political handicapping publication.

But that's not to say that it's over for Romney in Michigan. For one, he can't afford to narrow his options

for winning the Electoral College map -- and with 16 electoral votes, Michigan remains one of the bigger

players.

For another, Romney's ties to Michigan mean it's nearly impossible -- and possibly foolhardy -- for his

campaign to even consider a publicized pullout from the state, as executed four years ago in early


17/25

October by McCain's campaign -- a move that even his running mate, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin,

questioned.

Romney's late father, George Romney, was a three-term governor of Michigan, and Mitt Romney still

has close familial ties in the state. Any sign that the campaign is abandoning Michigan would be seized

by Democrats as a key loss for Romney.

Katie Packer Gage, Romney's deputy campaign manager who was born in Detroit and raised there and in

Southfield, told the Free Press earlier this week that the campaign has no intention of abandoning the

state.

"There are a whole lot of states that present a lot of opportunities for us, and Michigan is one of those

states," she said, noting that the campaign recently opened its 22nd grassroots organizing center in the

state, compared with 11 for Obama's campaign.

Romney campaign officials have said all week that they expected Obama to get a bounce in the polls

from the Democratic convention but that they expect that to fade as well.

A Republican hasn't won Michigan since George Bush in 1988. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by a

landslide 16 percentage points, and few would have expected such a result this year.

But Obama clearly has advantages in Michigan, the largest being his administration pumping billions of

dollars into GM and Chrysler, which have since returned to profitability. The U.S. Treasury still owns

about one-third of GM -- and the most recent figures show the government could lose $25 billion on the

rescue.

Democrats have argued that price is worth the 1 million jobs they say the auto rescue saved nationwide.

Romney argued against any rescue when it first came up in late 2008 and has maintained that thegovernment wasted money while it waited to run the companies through a managed bankruptcy and

delivered deals that helped union workers at the expense of bondholders and dealers.

"I really didn't like the way Romney was talking about General Motors," said Jeff Pirlot, 50, of Grosse Ile,

who is leaning toward voting for Obama. "If you're from Michigan, you should have supported that."

Romney's best chance at making Michigan competitive again -- especially since neither he nor his

independent supporters are running TV ads in the state -- may be the three debates, the first set for Oct.

3 in Denver.

For their part, Obama's campaign avoided spending campaign dollars on TV advertising in Michigan,

even as Crossroads and others were doing so this spring and summer. The president hasn't visited

Detroit for months, leaving that to Vice President Joe Biden and others.

Lou Thierwechter, 73, of Allegan is sticking by Romney, saying his fiscal conservatism is what the country

needs.

"Romney understands how money is generated so that it can be spent properly," said Thierwechter, a

former Allegan County commissioner. "In order to spend it, you have to first create it."


18/25

Contact TODD SPANGLER: 703-854-8947

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/09/14/obama-leads-in-ohio-florida-

virginia/70000332/1?csp=34news#.UFNhq6BKzq8

Sep 14, 2012

Poll: Obama leads in Ohio, Fla., Va.

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By David Jackson, USA TODAY

Updated 2h 26m ago

CAPTIONAP

States elect presidents via the Electoral College, and new polls give President Obama the lead in three

big ones.

Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

Obama leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney 50%-43% in Ohio, according to an NBC News/Wall

Street Journal/Marist poll. No Republican has ever won a presidential election without winning Ohio.

Other NBC/WSJ/Marist polls put Obama ahead 49%-44% in both Florida and Virginia.

The last Republican president, George W. Bush, carried Ohio, Florida and Virginia en route to re-election

in 2004; Romney may need to win all of them if he is to rack up the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

The numbers track with those in national polls; USA TODAY's Susan Page reported today that Obama

leads Romney 50%-44% in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll.

"You'd rather be in Obama's shoes than Romney's in these three critical states," said Lee Miringoff,

director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

He added that the lead is not insurmountable, especially with three presidential debates coming up next

month.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/10/why-is-obama-looking-so-strong-in-

ohio/

Why is Obama looking so strong in Ohio?


19/25

Posted by Sean Sullivan on September 10, 2012 at 2:19 pm

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When Mitt Romney campaigns in Ohio on Monday afternoon, hell do so in a state where he has some

work to do. Recent polling has shown President Obama holding a slight lead in the Buckeye State, which

has long been considered a must-have for Romney to win the White House in November.

If Obama wins Ohio, Romney will have to defy history to win the White House: No Republican has ever

been elected president without carrying the Buckeye State. There is still plenty of time for Republicans

to turn the tables (and we should underscore that the race remains very close), but right now, the

president has put himself in a good position to claim the states 18 electoral votes.

So why is Obama doing as well as he is in Ohio particularly when compared to other 2008 swing

states? (Check out this chart we posted last week comparing swing state performance between 2008

and 2012 for Obama.)

Everything in this election starts and ends with the economy, and Ohio is no exception. And, things are

looking up in the Buckeye State. The unemployment rate in July was 7.2 percent, about a point below

the national average. And its down from where it was about two years ago, when 10.6 percent of the

state was out of work.

Who deserves the credit for the turnaround is a key point of contention in the campaign. First-term Gov.

John Kasich (R), whose agenda has been lauded by the GOP but derided by Democrats, touted his stateseconomic progress in his speech at the Republican National Convention, and credited his

administrations policies.

We went through it and eliminated those things we didnt need, but we prioritized those things we

really did need, Kasich said in Tampa, after he mentioned balancing the states budget without raising

taxes.

But Democrats, unsurprisingly, dont agree. A key pillar of Obamas pitch in the state is the impact of the

auto bailout that was opposed by many Republicans, including Romney. Obamas campaign has been

running ads promoting the program as a success, and hes been talking about a lot it on the campaign

trail.

John Kasich stood up there and told everybody that Ohio is now number one in the Midwest in job

creation, fourth best in America which got folks kind of confused, because if its all Obamas fault and

nothing is going right, whats going on in Ohio? the president asked a crowd at a Labor Day rally in

Toledo. Now, I guess the theory was that its all the Governors doing. But I think we need to refresh his

memory because a lot of those jobs are autoworker jobs like yours.


20/25

As he continues to make his case to Ohio voters, recent polling shows Obamas message is helping him.

A new poll from automated Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling shows Obama leading Romney by a

slight five-point margin. A recent Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS poll showed Obama

leading Romney by six points, while two other recent polls showed the race was about even.

Kasichs approval ratings, meanwhile, have not been good. While they have improved since last year,

the early unpopularity of some of his policies including a move to curb collective bargaining for public

employees that was rejected by voters in a referendum last fall has taken its toll.

But of course Obama is not running against Kasich. He is running against Romney, who isnt ceding the

auto bailout issue to the president. Romney has taken to the airwaves with ads arguing that the auto

bailout has had a detrimental effect on car dealerships in Ohio.

And while Obamas head-to-head polling looks promising for his supporters, a deeper dive into the

numbers suggests Romney also has reasons for optimism. The Quinnipiac University/New York

Times/CBS poll, for example, showed Obama and Romney running dead even when it comes to who

would do a better job on the economy.

Beyond the debate over the economy, there is the question of which candidate voters better identify

with. Romneys business background (and Democratic efforts to portray him as wealthy and out of

touch), for example, may mean he will have a harder time connecting with voters in the rural, southern

part of the state than Republicans like George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan.

In the end, Ohios own economic picture may not be enough to boost Obama to a win there. Some

historical analyses have shown that the national economic picture is more important. And even for

voters looking only at the local picture, 7.2 percent unemployment may be lower than the national

average, but its not the 5.5 percent figure it was at as recently as 2006.

That said, Obamas standing in Ohio right now could be a lot worse. And without Ohio, Romney faces atough road to 270 electoral votes. November isnt here yet, but its just around the corner. And Romney

needs to move the needle in the Buckeye State to secure a win there.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-rendell-pennsylvania-obama-20120906,0,2446820.story

Rendell: Pennsylvania not a guaranteed win for Obama

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Ed Rendell

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, seen in a file photo, told state delegates Thursday that the state

isn't necessarily in the bag for President Obama. (Carolyn Kaster / AP File Photo)

Related photos

Scenes from the Democratic National Convention Photos: Scenes from the Democratic National

Convention

Protests of the Democratic National Convention Photos: Protests of the Democratic National

Convention

Predict a winner: Battleground states Predict a winner: Battleground states

Elizabeth Warren attacks GOP, declares 'the system is rigged' Elizabeth Warren attacks GOP, declares

'the system is rigged'

Sandra Fluke: GOP positions 'offensive, obsolete relic' of past Sandra Fluke: GOP positions 'offensive,obsolete relic' of past

Bill Clinton to say GOP offers a 'you're-on-your-own' society Bill Clinton to say GOP offers a 'you're-on-

your-own' society

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By Colby Itkowitz

September 6, 2012, 8:17 a.m.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell warned the state's Democratic delegates not

to "rest on your laurels" just because Pennsylvania is being widely cited as a guaranteed win for

President Obama.

"Don't be fooled," Rendell said at the morning breakfast meeting. "I believe they are laying a bit of a

trap for us. They have so much money ... if they decide to come in and blitz the last six or seven weeks,

they can do it if they want."

PHOTOS: Scenes from the DNC

Both high-profile conservative groups and the Obama campaign have pulled TV advertising from

Pennsylvania, and the Romney campaign hasn't yet spent a dime in the state. Obama won the swing

state, which has selected the Democratic candidate for the last five presidential cycles, by 10 points in

2008. And every public poll has showed Obama leading in the state.


22/25

But Rendell, who said he received an angry call from the campaign after he first said publicly that Mitt

Romney could win Pennsylvania, told the Democrats that the last thing they want to do is show

Republicans that they've become complacent.

"All of a sudden that nine-point lead becomes a six-point lead to a three-point lead, and then all of a

sudden it's within the margin of error," Rendell said. He told the party faithful that they must treat the

next two months as if Obama was polling in Pennsylvania two points behind and then work to make it

up.

"Roll up your sleeves ... because if we all work like we're two points behind we will win," he said.

PHOTOS: Protests of the DNC

Rendell also said he wants to see U.S. Sen. Bob Casey win his reelection by as wide a margin 18 points

as when he beat Rick Santorum in 2006. If Casey keeps winning elections overwhelmingly, Rendell

said, then people will look at that "one election he lost and say, 'the other guy must have been prettyspectacular.'"

Pennsylvania politics history note: Rendell beat Casey in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2002.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jj-colagrande/why-president-obama-may-lose_b_1858189.html

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Why President Obama May Lose Florida

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Florida, Florida, Florida...

When will a presidential election not be about Florida? Not this year.

Florida is by far the biggest battleground state and arguably once again thee most important in thiselection cycle. Its 29 electoral votes are significantly more than the next swing state Ohio (18 votes),

where it appears President Obama has spent a significant amount of time campaigning; throw in

Wisconsin (10 votes) and with both combined Florida is still more important. Putting aside other swing

states like Colorado (10), Virginia (13), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6), let's forget the math for a sec. President

Obama should truly be worried about Florida because from the view on the ground, honestly, it just

doesn't look good for him.

Let's take a step backwards.

The 2008 presidential election in Florida was pretty darn close. President Obama won with only a 2.5

percent victory margin; far from a landslide. And now, after the 2010 mid-term elections, Florida isconsiderably even more Republican than it was four years ago. In fact, the mid-term elections were a

near blow-out for Republicans who swept the congressional elections 19-6, brought Marco Rubio into

the Senate, and Rick Scott into his governorship, not to mention the state legislature, which is nearly

now two to one Republican. In addition to political gerrymandering, voter suppression controversies,

Citizens United, massive outspending by Super PACs, and tense relations with Israel, by nature, at its

core, Florida is still a Republican state.

Winning Florida was never going to be easy for the POTUS.

Look at it this way. There are three Florida's.

North Florida, sparsely populated and very southern, is undoubtedly Republican.

Central Florida (or the I-4 corridor) can go either way. In 2008, the suburban counties went for Obama

(Hillsborough, Orange, Osceola) while more rural counties voted McCain (Pasco, Polk, Brevard, Lake).

Central Florida is a virtual toss-up; in fact, considering the Republicans hosted their convention in

Tampa, it is completely within reason to think Romney may do better than Obama this cycle. In addition,

during the primaries Romney did very well in the I-4 corridor.


24/25

This leads us to South Florida. . .

Although there are Republican leaning counties on the west coast of South Florida, those districts pale in

comparison to the massive population centers on the east coast. West Palm Beach, Broward, and

Miami-dade are the three biggest counties in Florida. If you look at the numbers, Obama absolutely

crushed McCain in South Florida -- if the president wants to win Florida again, he needs South Florida.

Yes, he has the Latino vote, especially after his stance on the DREAM ACT. Yes, he has women and 99

percent of the African-American vote.

There is just one problem. Enthusiasm down here is dreadful. There's no energy, momentum, or passion

for this presidential cycle. It's like Biscayne Bay after a storm, completely calm and eerily flat. This bodes

a major problem for President Obama. And these are intangibles that can't accurately be polled. Florida,

let alone South Florida, is the most unique state in our union. We are extremely diverse, exceptionally

spread-out, and unabashedly a bandwagon state. Study the attendance records of our sports teams. We

don't stand by them in tough times.

We are not brought together by the pace of our culture and lifestyle, like up North. We are not brought

together by tradition, like in the South--or by similar values like in the Midwest. We are not bound byconvictions, like out West. Florida, and especially South Florida, more so than anywhere else in the

country, is selfish, unmotivated and blas. At the end of the day, we don't care. We're a tossed salad, an

entre filled with different ingredients that don't blend together -- and we love a good bandwagon, we

eat it up -- the problem is the president's bandwagon is over.

In 2008, here in South Florida, just like the rest of the country, we ate up candidate Obama's message of

hope and inspirational change. It was absolutely electric. It took two hours to cast a vote. In Little Haiti

at the Lemon Branch library for Early Voting the line was out the door. Do you remember the free

concert Jay Z gave for Obama as tens of thousands bum-rushed the park?

In '08, I personally volunteered for President Obama. My job was to distribute those iconic Obama"Hope" posters designed by Shepherd Fairey (incidentally the artist was sued for copyright infringement

and is now facing jail time for obstruction of justice -- a pathetic irony of the old campaign of hope and

change). To get the posters out, have them seen -- this was my duty. I had access to thousands of

posters. Sometimes I plastered them up, late at night, on moonlit city streets, but it was moot, for by

morning, they wore tore down as souvenirs. It was like that over here. Eventually, I canvassed small

businesses and asked if they wanted to put a poster up inside, so they wouldn't be tore down. For my

work, I received two autographed posters, personally signed by the POTUS. I didn't want anything, but it

was certainly cool to receive it.

This year, you couldn't pay me to volunteer for President Obama. And it's not because I don't like him.

I'm still enamored. There's a little rust on the surface of his shine, but I still believe in his policies. I

sometimes feel he talks too much. But after listening to the Republicans during their convention, which

is the respect I wanted to afford them, I found their ideas extremely vague and unconvincing. I will likely

vote for President Obama, but he won't get my time for any extracurricular volunteering. He'd have to

personally call me to action if he wanted help.

And it's for no other reason than I'm tuned out. This campaign is so different than the last; so negative in

tone, so opposite from the inspiration of '08. All these ad buys -- we're inundated with them in Florida.

The campaign season is way too long. All the obstructionism in Congress.


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It's a turn-off. Literally. And it is legitimate to worry about voter turnout. If voter turnout is low in South

Florida, President Obama will not win this state, and may lose the election. It's that simple. President

Obama is no longer a fresh face. There is no bandwagon to jump on.

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