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Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18611Geography: Kentucky Sponsor:

Data Collected: 09/22/2011 - 09/27/2011 The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, (Louisville, KY)

Release Date: 09/29/2011

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18611 - Page 1 2011 SurveyUSA -www.surveyusa.com

One Month To KY Governor Election, Incumbent Democrat Beshear Overwhelms Republican Challenger: One month until votes are counted in the election for Governor of Kentucky,

incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear builds upon his 2:1 advantage over Republican challenger David Williams, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for the Courier-Journal

newspaper and WHAS-TV in Louisville. 28% of Kentucky Republicans today cross-over to vote Democrat. 24% of Tea Party members cross-over to vote Democrat. Just half of Republican voters

back the Republican candidate. When the demographic sub-groups are added up, it's Beshear 57% Williams 26%, a 31-point advantage for the Democrat in a state that in 2010 elected a TeaParty candidate to the U.S. Senate. Independent Gatewood Galbraith gets 8% in an election for Governor today, 10/02/11. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 60 days ago, Williams is down

2 points, Beshear is up 5 points. There is movement to the Democrat in Western KY, where Beshear's lead has nearly tripled since July, and among men, where Beshear had led by 18, now leads

by 26. Beshear, elected in 2007 with 59% of the vote, is strong in greater Louisville, where he gets 62% of the vote, among moderates, where he gets 70%, among women, where he gets 60%,

among seniors, where he gets 64%, and among pro-choice voters, where he gets 74% of the vote. Williams carries conservatives 5:4. *Beshear has a Plus 31 Favorability Rating, up 4 points

since July, impressive in a climate where Democrats elsewhere are struggling.

*Williams has a Minus 21 Favorability Rating, down 6 points since July.

This survey includes cell phone respondents and landline respondents.SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Kentucky adults 09/22/11 through 09/27/11. Of the adults, 799 were registered to vote. Of

the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/11 Gubernatorial election. This survey was conducted multimode. Of the landline respondents (who are

75% of adults, 79% of likely voters), two-thirds were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, one-third were interviewed by call center employees, who asked the questions

and remained on the line until the interview was completed. Of the cell phone respondents (who are 25% of adults, 21% of likely voters), all were interviewed by call center employees, whohand-dialed the numbers and who remained on the line until the interview was completed. In this data set, cell-phone respondents and landline respondents vote similarly.

1 If the election for Kentucky Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican David Williams? Democrat Steve Beshear? Or Independent GatewoodGalbraith?569 Likely Voters

AllGender Age


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1If the election for Kentucky Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican David Williams? Democrat Steve Beshear? Or Independent GatewoodGalbraith?

569 Likely VotersAll

Tea Party Memb Ideology College Grad Attend Religious Services Abortion Own a Gun? Income

Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Yes No Conser Modera Liberal Yes No Regular Occasio Almost Pro-l ife Pro-cho Yes No $80K

Williams (R) 26% 56% 20% 47% 14% 6% 28% 25% 31% 22% 19% 39% 13% 28% 23% 17% 33% 31%

Beshear (D) 57% 24% 65% 37% 70% 79% 53% 59% 55% 61% 58% 43% 74% 52% 65% 67% 51% 51%

Galbraith (I) 8% 14% 7% 8% 9% 9% 11% 7% 6% 9% 16% 8% 10% 10% 6% 7% 8% 11%

Undecided 9% 6% 8% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 11% 3% 9% 6% 9% 8% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely Voters 100% 17% 79% 43% 36% 16% 40% 60% 55% 25% 20% 52% 40% 58% 40% 35% 37% 28%

1

If the election for Kentucky Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican David Williams? Democrat Steve Beshear? Or Independent GatewoodGalbraith?


Region

Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Wester Louisvill North C Eastern

Williams (R) 26% 22% 27% 27% 29%

Beshear (D) 57% 63% 62% 53% 46%

Galbraith (I) 8% 4% 6% 13% 10%

Undecided 9% 11% 5% 7% 15%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely Voters 100% 24% 28% 33% 16%

2 Is your opinion of David Williams ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of David Williams?


Gender Age


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569 Likely Voters

All



Favorable 17% 36% 13% 30% 10% 5% 19% 16% 19% 18% 13% 25% 10% 19% 16% 11% 23% 18%

Unfavorable 38% 21% 43% 25% 50% 52% 47% 33% 41% 37% 35% 31% 51% 37% 44% 39% 36% 43%

Neutral 20% 30% 19% 22% 22% 15% 19% 22% 21% 17% 22% 21% 21% 24% 14% 20% 20% 19%

No Opinion 24% 13% 25% 23% 18% 28% 16% 29% 19% 28% 30% 23% 18% 21% 26% 29% 21% 19%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%




Region


Favorable 17% 16% 16% 17% 21%

Unfavorable 38% 37% 45% 37% 31%

Neutral 20% 19% 19% 22% 21%

No Opinion 24% 28% 20% 23% 26%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


3 Is your opinion of Steve Beshear ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Steve Beshear?


Gender Age


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569 Likely Voters

All



Favorable 51% 23% 58% 33% 63% 69% 47% 53% 49% 56% 51% 40% 66% 48% 56% 61% 49% 43%

Unfavorable 20% 45% 14% 31% 15% 5% 23% 17% 19% 19% 21% 27% 12% 22% 16% 14% 21% 24%

Neutral 20% 26% 19% 25% 18% 16% 23% 19% 25% 13% 18% 24% 17% 22% 19% 14% 22% 29%

No Opinion 9% 7% 8% 12% 4% 9% 6% 11% 7% 12% 10% 9% 5% 8% 9% 11% 8% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%




Region


Favorable 51% 52% 55% 51% 43%

Unfavorable 20% 16% 17% 21% 25%

Neutral 20% 20% 20% 22% 19%

No Opinion 9% 12% 7% 6% 13%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.

Statement of Methodology:About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit

Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster's report includes the geography that was surveyed; the

date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were

weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results

would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete

accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home

telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the

manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire

design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
http://www.surveyusa.com/http://www.surveyusa.com/http://www.surveyusa.com/

poll results | courier-journal/whas11 bluegrass poll (10/01/11)

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