polling signals for policymakers (2013)
TRANSCRIPT
Polling SignalsK-12 Education & School Choice
Paul [email protected]
School Choice in the American NortheastAugust 20, 2013
Portland, ME
Key Question
• How popular or unpopular are school choice policies among Americans?
Considering the following perspectives in the Friedman Foundation April-2013 national survey…
General Population (i.e. American Adults) Regions (emphasis on Northeast) Demographics
First, some context…
National Surveys to look for every year…
February MetLife Survey/Harris
May Friedman Foundation/BRI
August AP/NORC Center
Education Next-PEPG/KN
PDK/Gallup
Friedman’s National Survey Profile
Interview Dates: April 1 to 8, 2013
Survey Firm: Braun Research, Inc. (BRI)
Interview Method: Live Telephone | 77.5% landline and 22.5% cell phone
Sample Frame: Adults (age 18+)
Sampling Method: Dual Frame; Probability Sampling; RDD
Population Sample: General Population / American Adults = 1,000
Margins of Error: General Population / American Adults = ± 3.1 percentage points
(MOE is higher for subgroups)
Response Rates: Landline (LL) = 13.2%Cell Phone = 11.4%
Weighting? Yes (Age, Race, Ethnicity, Gender, Region, and Landline/Cell)
Oversampling? Yes (“School Moms” = mothers of school-age children)
Why do we conduct polls and surveys?
• state and national views/education culture
• assessment / comparison of states
• understand and respect diverse perspectives
• launch / help frame policy conversations
• national trends / changes over time
Analytical perspectives:
~ Level
~ Difference/Gap/Spread (Favor – Oppose)
~ Intensity (Strong Favor – Strong Oppose)
A little more context…
What do Americans say about the
state of K-12 Education in the
United States?
What do Americans know about
spending in K-12 Education?
Learning about specific K-12 spending information changes public opinion.
How do respondents grade schools
in their local areas?
What type of school is
first preference?
Americans are much more likely to give an A/B to local private school and charter
schools, compared to local public schools.
BETTER EDUCATION / QUALITY 164INDIVIDUAL ATTENTION / ONE-ON-ONE 95
CLASS SIZE / STUDENT-TEACHER RATIO 82
BETTER TEACHERS / TEACHERS / TEACHING 80SOCIALIZATION / PEERS / OTHER KIDS 70
ACADEMICS / CURRICULUM 61
DIVERSITY / VARIETY 47DISCIPLINE / STRUCTURE 41
PUBLIC SCHOOL: POSITIVE MENTIONS 41
COST / TUITION / AFFORDABILITY 37PRIVATE SCHOOL: POSITIVE MENTIONS 36
SAFETY / LESS DRUGS, VIOLENCE, BULLYING 30
RELIGION / RELIGIOUS REASONS 27OPPORTUNITIES / CHOICES 22
ENVIRONMENT / CULTURE / COMMUNITY 17
OUTCOMES / RESULTS / GRADUATION RATE 16
What is the most important characteristic or attribute that would cause you to choose a [INSERT SCHOOL TYPE FROM PREVIOUS QUESTION] for your child? Please use one word, or a very short phrase.
Top 16 | Specific impressions offered by respondents in the national sample. Numbers represent counts (n), not percentages.
SOURCE: Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice, 2013 Schooling in America Survey , Q9.
School Choice & Reform Snapshots
What do Americans say
about school vouchers?
Voucher Differentials
+ 47 School Parent
+ 44 Low-income
+ 44 Small Town
+ 41 Age 18 to 34
+ 41 African American
+ 27 Northeast
+ 18 Age 55 & Over
+ 18 High-income
+ 18 Suburban
+ 14 Democrat
+ 11 West
Voucher Intensity
+ 28 School Parent
+ 25 African American
+ 20 Age 35 to 54
+ 19 Low-income
+ 19 Middle-income
+ 5 Suburban
+ 4 Age 55 & Over
+ 1 Non-schooler
- 1 Northeast
- 2 High-income
… education savings accounts?
ESA Differentials
+ 58 Age 18 to 34
+ 53 Northeast
+ 46 High-income
+ 45 Midwest
+ 45 Suburban
+ 36 Low-income
+ 35 White
+ 28 Age 55 & Over
+ 27 Urban
+ 21 West
ESA Intensity
+ 26 Age 18 to 34
+ 24 High-income
+ 24 African American
+21 School Parent
+ 21 Suburban
+ 19 Northeast
+ 13 Low-income
+ 12 White
+ 11 West
+ 10 Age 55 & Over
+ 7 Urban
… tax-credit scholarships?
Tax Credit Differentials
+ 52 Independent
+ 52 Middle-income
+ 50 African American
+ 49 Age 35 to 54
+ 49 School Parent
+ 39 Northeast
+ 38 Non-schooler
+ 37 Urban
+ 37 West
+ 30 Democrat
+ 26 High-income
Tax Credit Intensity
+ 31 Age 35 to 54
+ 31 African American
+ 29 Republican
+ 28 Middle-income
+ 27 Urban
+ 21 Northeast
+ 17 White
+ 16 Age 55 & Over
+ 16 Democrat
+ 16 Rural
+ 13 High-income
… charter schools?
Charter Differentials
+ 44 Middle-income
+ 41 Age 18 to 34
+41 School Parent
+ 40 Independent
+ 39 Middle-income
+ 39 Republican
+ 31 Age 35 to 54
+ 31 Rural
+ 29 African American
+ 27 Northeast
+ 26 High-income
Charter Intensity
+ 24 Middle-income
+ 22 Republican
+ 20 African American
+ 19 Age 35 to 54
+ 19 Small Town
+ 19 Urban
+ 12 Independent
+ 12 Suburban
+ 10 Northeast
+ 10 Rural
+ 8 Age 18 to 34
+ 7 High-income
… parent trigger?
Key Findings:• Americans say they support school choice policies
such as vouchers, ESAs, tax-credit scholarships. There is variation among regions and other demographic groups. School parents are a key group.
• There is discontent and dissatisfaction about the direction of K-12 education in the country.
• Leadership and education on school choice issues have the potential to broaden support for policies such as school vouchers and charter schools.
• School choice is here to stay… Likely to play expanding role in K-12 education in the future.
National Surveys on
School Choice Topics
PDK/Gallup (1970 to 2012)Public Support for Vouchers
Terry Moe (1995/2001)
• Low awareness and information ( ~ 2:1)• National, 60% vs. 32% = + 28 • Parents, 68% vs. 24% = + 44• African Americans, 73% vs. 18% = + 55• Latinos, 71% vs. 18% = + 53
Public Agenda (1999)
• National, 57% vs. 36% = + 21 Intensity = 29% vs. 23% = + 6
• Parents, 68% vs. 27% = + 41Intensity = 40% vs. 17% = + 23
Education Next-PEPG/KN (2007 to 2012)Public Support for Low-Income Vouchers