polyamide intermediates – world market overview
TRANSCRIPT
(Emma) Liu Xiang
Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015
Seoul, 8 May 2015
Polyamide Intermediates – World Market Overview
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Forecast Growth 2.9%
pa
Growth 3.4% Growth 3.0%
Growth 2.7% pa
Capability to produce
Annual CaprolactamConsumption
1,000 Metric Tons
If no new plants
2018-2020
APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY versus DEMAND
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200BA
SF
DSM Ube
Hon
eyw
ell
CPD
C
Capro
Cor
p
Lanx
ess
Sum
itom
o
Dom
o
C.I.
S
Pola
nd
India
Oth
ers
Sino
pec
Boh
ui
Shand
ong H
ongye
Zhe
jiang
Juh
ua
Shand
ong L
uxi
Hub
ei S
ann
ing
Fujia
n Ti
anc
hen
Heb
ei X
uyang
Shanx
i La
nhua
Fujia
n Li
heng
Shanx
i Yang
mei
Hengyi
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Baling
Fujian
China
China
China
2011
Closures2013-2015
Additions 2012
Additions 2014
Additions 2015-2016
Additions 2013
Additions 2017
Shijiazhuang
APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY 2011 – 2017
1,000 Metric Tons per Year
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0002
014
20
20
20
14
20
20
20
14
20
20
20
14
20
20
20
14
20
20
20
14
20
20
20
14
20
20
20
14
20
20
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
1,000 Metric Tons
Textile Filament
High Ten Yarn
BCF & Staple
PA6 EngineeringResin
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME &Africa
S & SE Asia
NEAsia
China
APIC 2015
WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 DEMAND BY REGION
-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
1,000 Metric Tons
S &
SE A
sia
E E
uro
pe
W E
uro
pe
N A
merica
S A
merica
ME &
Africa
Taiw
an &
S K
ore
a
Chin
a
Japan
2004
2014
2005
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 est
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE 2004-2014
-750
-650
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
1,000 Metric Tons
S &
SE A
sia
E E
uro
pe
W E
uro
pe
N A
merica
S A
merica
ME &
Africa
Taiw
an &
S K
ore
a
Chin
a
Japan
2004
2014
2005
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 est
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE Post 2014 Trends
Forecast Trend to 2020
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
APIC 2015
ASIAN CAPROLACTAM IMPORT CONTRACT PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
Asian Caprolactam Import Contract $/ton
1999-2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
Asian 0.865 PTA + 0.35 MEG $/ton
1999-2008
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
APIC 2015
ASIAN 0.865PTA PRICE + 0.35MEG PRICEvs BRENT CRUDE OIL
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
2015?
APIC 2015
ASIAN 0.865PTA + 0.35MEG PRICE TREND & CAPROLACTAM PRICE TREND vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
Caprolactam
PTA + MEG
$/ton
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
APIC 2015
AVERAGE PET RESIN AND PA6 POLYMER COSTSvs BRENT CRUDE OIL
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
PA6
PET
2015?$/ton
Asia Cotton Price (May-Dec 2014)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
$/ton Caprolactam
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST ON CRUDE OIL PRICE
Cyclohexane
Packing, loading shipping
Fixed costs of supplying plants
Cats & Chemicals Fixed costs of
caprolactam plant
Cost of Production in Asia
Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Delivery
Energy dependant costs
Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.)
12
34
5 6
7
89
1011
1212
34
5
7
6
8 910
1112
1 2
3 4
510
9
8
6 7
11
1251
2 3
4
6
7 8
9
10
11
12
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
$/ton Caprolactam
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST CRUDE OIL PRICE
Cyclohexane
Packing, loading shipping
Fixed costs of supplying plants
Cats & Chemicals Fixed costs of
caprolactam plant
Cost of Production in Asia
Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Delivery
Energy dependant costs
Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.)
12
3
456
7 89
2013
2014
1211
10
World Capacity World Tightness
Utilisation Rate Markets Index
96.0% Very Tight 1.4
93.7% Tight 1.2
90.0% Balanced 1
84.0% Loose 0.8
75.0% Over-supplied 0.6
(Sloppy)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
TIGHTNESS INDEX
For a given year:
World Tightness Index = log10
Capability
Capability - Consumption
Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity less Capacity off line*
* Due to unscheduled stoppages, not scheduled maintenance turnarounds
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
TIGHTNESS INDEX
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Tightness Index
Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
VERYTIGHT
TIGHT
BALANCED
OVER-SUPPLIED(SLOPPY)
LOOSE
H2 2009
H1 2010
H2 2010
H1 2011
H2 2011
H1 2012
H2 2012
2013
2014
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM PRICE HISTORY - ASIA
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Tightness Index
Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
VERY TIGHT
TIGHT
BALANCED
OVER SUPPLIED(SLOPPY)
LOOSE
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
November 2014
APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM PRICE SCENARIOS – ASIA NOV 2014
Butadiene
Adiponitrile HMDA
Acrylonitrile
HCN by-product
HCN Andrussov
Electro Hydro Dimerisation
H2
Hydrocyanation
Alternatives
+
Adipic acid
AH Salt
PA66 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
THE PA66 SUPPLY CHAIN
Invista Orange13.4%
Ascend 15.8%
Rhodia 13.2%
Asahi 2.2%
Invista Victoria21.1%
Invista France13.2%
Invista China15.8%
Runxing5.3%
77%
23%
Invista Orange17.0%
Ascend 20.1%
Rhodia 16.7%
Asahi 2.7%
Invista Victoria26.8%
InvistaFrance16.7%
77%
24%
Invista Orange17.0%
Ascend 20.1%
Rhodia 16.7%
Asahi 2.7%
Invista Victoria26.8%
InvistaFrance16.7%
60%
23%
17%
1,240/1,495 ktpa
Technology
2014
1,495 ktpa
20192009
Hydrocyanation Acrylonitrile EHD
1,895 ktpa
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
GLOBAL ADIPONITRILE CAPACITY
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1,000 Metric Tons
No new plants2015-2018
Annual Adiponitrile
Consumption
ForecastGrowth 3.7%
Capability to produce= 95% capacity
BASF closes 116 ktpaat Wilton, UK
Growth 3.1%Invista’s 254 ktpa unit at
Orange, USA out of action
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs DEMAND
APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Adipic Acid Consumption
ForecastGrowth 2.7%
Capability to Produce
Invista closes 450 ktpaat Wilton & Maitland, rebuilds Orange
Growth 4.0%
1,000 Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
1,000 Metric Tons
Textile Fibre
Bulked Carpet
High Ten Yarn
Staple
PA66 Resin
1.7%
2.4%
3.9%
Growth 2012 - 2020
1.9%
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE
1,000 Metric Tons
2006-2014 Growth 8%
ForecastGrowth 9%
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 SUPPLY & DEMAND
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
PA66 Capacity
PA66 Net Import
PA66Production
High Tenacity Filament
28%
Airbag5%
Staple4%
Cable Tie8%
Engineering Plastics52%
Textile Filament
3%
End-Use Demand
Shenma43%
Guorui2%
Huafon6%
Huayang2% Invista
16%
Ascend5%
Rhodia4%
DuPont8%
Asahi/Toray
4%Radici1%
Nilit4%
Others4%
Supply by Producer
Consumption 562,000 Tons Supply 580,000 Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem & China Customs
APIC 2015
CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 DEMAND & SUPPLY 2014
APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS
• Most of the world growth for caprolactam will take place in China, due to:
� Dominance in world production of PA6 textile filament
� Displacement of imports of caprolactam and PA6 polymer
• Massive caprolactam capacity additions in China have createdovercapacity and have reduced cash margins to zero or negative. The expansion enthusiasm slow down this year due to poor margins.
• Some plants have been forced to close in high energy cost regions, more may follow
• The fall in crude oil prices will improve the competitivity of polyamide versus polyester
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
• Steady growth on the global polyamide 66 demand, but stronger growth is expected to occur in China.
• With Shandong Runxing new ADN plant and Invista’s new HMDA plant to come on stream in China, Increased availability of raw material would help the development of polyamide 66 industry in China.
• New polyamide 66 polyamide capacity has been announced by Huafon Group (40 ktpa mid-2015), Invista (100 ktpa, early 2016), Henan Shenma (40ktpa, 2016).
• Besides existing polyamide 66 polymer players, some adipic acid producers also showed interest of investing polyamide 66 polymer plant to absorb over-supplied adipic acid capacity.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS
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