Key Terms• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of live births in a

year per 1000 people• Total Fertility Rate – the average number of children

born to a women during her lifetime• General Fertility Rate (GFR) – the number of live births

per 1000 females of child bearing age (15-44 years) (but it can be more complicated – take a look

• Crude Death Rate (CDR) – the number of deaths per 1000 of the population in a year

• Life Expectancy – the average number of years a person can expect to live

• Age-specific death rate and infant mortality will come later

The Population Formula

Natural Population Change = CBR – CDR

The Population Explosion

www.sustainablescale.org

MEDCs vs. LEDCs

www.sustainablescale.org

Why it happened?• Death rates declined whilst birth rates

remained high.

• Many developing countries moved through stages 2 and 3 of the demographic transition model.

Source, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition

Doubling Times• With a 2% growth rate the population

doubling time would be 35 years.

• With 3% it would take 24 years and with 4% only 17 years for a population to double

• To get the doubling time divide 70 by the %

(Chrispin and Jegede 2000)

Exemplification

Country Growth Rate (%)

Doubling Time (years)

Denmark 0.1 700

Brazil 0.9 78

Indonesia 1.6 44

Uganda 3.0 23

(Source, Nagle 2005)

So What?• Today Indonesia’s population is 235m by

2051 it will be 470m

• Uganda’s population is 30m (2007 est. CIA World Factbook), it will be 60m by 2030

Future Populations

UN World Population Projections (Source www.wikipedia.org)

The Slowing of Growth

• Annual growth is currently 1.2% way below the rates of 2.2% seen 40 years ago.

• This is largely due to declines in fertility. In 1990 the average women gave birth to 3.3 children, by 2002 this had dropped to 2.6.

(Nagle 2005)

Development• Development can be both a state and a

process

• Development suggests economic progress and social improvement which will affect demographic change

• Increasingly development is considered in terms of sustainability (sustainable development)

(Nagle 2005)

How do we measure

development?

Population and Development• 80-90% of the population explosion occurred in

the developing world• Development acts to lower a countries birth rate

(Guardian Online 2007)• The most developed countries in the world are in

crises, their populations are shrinking. By the Year 3000 the population of Japan will be 500. By 3500 there will only be 1 person left (McNaught and Witherick 2001)

What demands will population and development changes place

on the worlds human and physical resources?

What will the implications of these demands be in terms of

sustainable development?

Population and Development Issue

• Ecological footprint data suggests that 3-4 planets would be required to support the current population at the consumption level of North Americans (www.sustainablescale.org).

Personal Investigation

Your enquiry should aim to investigate the relationship between development and one

of the key demographic indicators associated with fertility, mortality and

natural population change.

Follow These Steps

1. Formulate hypothesis

2. Identify the data that you need and collect and collate it.

3. Now you need to present and process the data.

4. Finally you need to write a report presenting your findings.

ReferencesWebsites• World Population Growth graph, available from:

http://www.sustainablescale.org/AreasofConcern/Population/PopulationandScale/QuickFacts.aspx (cited 9th September 2007)

• World Population Development graph available from: http://www.sustainablescale.org/AreasofConcern/Population/PopulationandScale/QuickFacts.aspx (cited 9th September 2007)

• Total birth world map, available from: WorldMapper.org, http://www.worldmapper.org/images/largepng/3.png (cited 11th Sept 2007)

• Population data on Indonesia and Uganda, available from: CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ (cited 9th September 2007)

• Demographic transition model graph available from: Wikipedia, Source, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition (cited 9th September 2007)

• World Population Growth Rates graph available from US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.html (cited 11th Sept 2007)

• Ecological footprint comparison data available from: Sustainablescale.org, http://www.sustainablescale.org/AreasofConcern/Population/PopulationandScale/QuickFacts.aspx (cited 9th September 2007)

• World Wildlife Fund 2002, Living Planet Report: available from Optimal Population Trust, http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.sustainable.numbers.html (cited 9th September 2007)

• Figures on numbers of forced migrants by 2050 available from http://www.sourceuk.net/article/9/9830/world_facing_migration_crisis.html (cited 11th Sept. 2007)

Books• Chrispin, J. and Jegede, F., 2000. Population, Resources and Development. London: Harper Collins Publishers Ltd.• Gillet, J., 2005 Population. London: Hodder Murray• McNaught, A. and Witherick, M., 2001. Global Challenge. London: Pearson Education Ltd.• Nagle, G., 2005 Development. London: Hodder MurrayOther• Anon, 2007, How to deal with a falling population. The Economist, 28th July. Pp.13.