Population and Development in the MDG Context :

The Impact of Population Trends and Structures on MDG Progress

Jean Louis RALLUINED, Paris

Second Edition of the Interdisciplinary Course on the UN Millennium Development Goals

Rome,October 2, 2009

Content

Population and Development, the Demographic Window• Population and Development and international organizations

(the old and new paradigms)• The demographic window of opportunityThe Millennium development Goals (MDG)The relationship between population and MDGs• Population and development, and MDGs• Relationship between MDG indicators• Population trends/structures and MDG indicators• Migration and MDGs

I. - Population and Development, the

Demographic Window

Population and Development and international organizations

The old and the new paradigms

• The link between population trends and development. The former population growth vs development debate : ‘which is the cause and which is the consequence’ – UN International Conference on Population, and Population and Development, before Cairo 1994.

• The new paradigm : interelated economic, social and human rights issues in an integrated approach to population and development, ICPD Cairo 1994 ;

- ICPD PoA (Programme of Action) 1994- MDGs 2000, adopted by the UN and 200 countries

P&D and the Demographic Window of Opportunity

• The demographic window theory is based on analysis of emergent countries in East and South-East Asia showing that population structure is more important than population growth for development.

Several names:• demographic window of opportunity (preferable)

• demographic window• demographic dividend

The Demographic window of opportunity

The demographic window of opportunity

• With declining fertility, population growth declines.

• However, growth remains positive due to ‘population momentum’.

• BUT, birth cohorts size stabilizes and starts to decline (while population is still growing).

• A youth bulge appears.• Thus, dependency ratios fall progressively,

reaching below 50 (2 adults for one dependent (children < 15 and elderly > 65).

Thailand 1960-2005Thailand 1960

-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

0-4

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F 1960

M 1960

Thailand 1970

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F1970

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Thailand 1980

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F1980

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Thailand 1990

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F1990

M1990

Thailand 2000

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F2000

M2000

Thailand 2005

-3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000

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2005 F

2005 M

Thailand demographic window

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 population (000s) 27,642 37,186 47,264 56,674 62,347 68,139 71,444 73,462 74,003 73,361 Growth rate (%) 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Dependency ratio (%) 88 92 76 53 46 41 44 51 57 60

• We see clearly:- the stabilizing and shrinking basis of the

age-pyramid from 1980- The youth bulge appearing in 1990- The youth bulge moving upwards- The beginning of aging THEN…,- Aging

Thailand 2030-2050

Thailand 2030

-3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000

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100+

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Thailand 2050

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80-84

85-89

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F

M

The two phases of the demographic window

• Recent works (Mason 2006, 2007) shows there are two phases in the demographic window

• The youth bulge : increased ratio of workers to population, increased qualification/productivity of work force (young people are usually more educated)

• When the youth bulge reaches late adult ages, children of ‘youth bulgers’ have left the family, resulting in increased savings that are favorable to investments.

The demographic window of opportunity

• The demographic window can last 2 or 3 decades.

• There is no fixed threshold in dependency rates to define the demographix window

• However, it’s impact is stronger when dependency ratio is below 55 or 50.

• Currently China, Thailand have dependency ratios around 42 (Singapore : 37).

Demographic window in four S-E Asian countries, 1970-2050

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

VietNam

Dependency ratios in Africa and Asiataux de dépendance (15-64 ans)

0,0

20,0

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sub-Saharan Africa

AFRICA

Eastern Africa

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Eastern Asia

South-Eastern Asia

South-Central Asia

Eastern Asia

S-E Asia

South central Asia

Northern Africa

Africa

Eastern Africa

SubSaharan and Western Africa

The demographic window in Africa and Asia

• Some countries in East Asia and SE Asia are right in the middle of the demographic window with dependency ratios in the 40 to 45 range

• Other countries in SE Asia are heading towards the low point in dependency ratio (around 2020), followed by South and Central Asia (from 2035)

• Northern Africa is close to South Central Asia – minimum dependency ratio is projected to remain higher (around 45) than in East Asia

• Western and Eastern Africa would not show dependency ratios below 50 before 2050 in medium scenario

- Southern Africa has lower fertility and dependency ratios, but the latter is also influenced by the impact of AIDS

Dependency ratios in a few African countries

taux de dépendance (15-64 ans)

0,0

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Algeria

Morocco

Tunisia

Niger

Nigeria

SenegalTunisie

Algérie

Maroc

Niger

Sénégal

Nigeria

Fertility in Africa and Asia (TFR observed and projected - medium scenario)Indice synthétique de fécondité

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2045-2050

Sub-Saharan Africa

AFRICA

Eastern Africa

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Eastern Asia

South-Eastern Asia

South-Central AsiaEastern Asia

SE Asia

South Central Asia

AfricaNorthern Africa

Eastern and Western Africa

SubSaharan Africa

Dependency ratios (medium and low fertiltiy scenarios)

taux de dépendance selon les scenarios moyen et bas de l'ONU

0,0

20,0

40,0

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Eastern Africa

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Eastern Africa

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Afrique du Nord

Afrique de l'Est

Afrique de l'Ouest

The link between fertility and dependency/demographic window

• The ranking of regions and sub-regions is very close for fertility and dependency ratios – as expected, because the basis of the age-pyramid is a direct result of fertility levels and children under 15 are the major contributor to dependency before aging takes place

• Earlier and stronger fertility declines in low scenario are associated with earlier demographic window and lower dependency ratios: below 50 from 2045 in Western and Eastern Africa.

- Reducing aging after the demographic window can be done by stabilizing fertity at the replacement level (if TFR does not decline under 2.1)

Economic aspects

Macro economic effects of the Demographic Window

- States have to spend less for services in child/maternal health and education, due to stable and then declinning children cohorts.

- They can invest to improve quality of services, train nurses/teachers, shift spendings from 1ary to 2ary and 3ary education,…

- They can develop infrastructures that will attract foreign as well as domestic private investors

Micro economic effects of the Demographic Window

- Households spend less on primary needs (food+clothing for a large number of children).

- They can spend in durable goods, services, health, higher education of smaller number of children…

- Mothers can work outside.

- This help develop new sectors of economy.

- Later, at higher adult ages, they can save more.

Demographic window of opportunity

• This works, ON CONDITION young adults of the youth bulge can be employed,

• which is dependent on legal and economic environment: investment policies, freedom of trade, quality of infrastructures, qualification of work force, social and political stability, governance, human rights, gender equality.

II. - The Millenium Development Goals

The MDGs

• End Poverty and Hunger

• Universal Education

• Gender Equality

• Child Health

• Maternal Health

• Combat HIV/AIDS

• Environmental Sustainability

• Global Partnership

The MDG galaxy

• 8 goals: 20 targets and 60+ indicators• They are designed to address basic human

needs and rights as regards nutrition, access to paid work, education, health, environment, partnership for development,...

• They are based on human rights• Although there is no goal on governance,

governance is addressed consistently by various UN agencies in the 5th UN Programme 2008-2011

Types of indicators A useful approach is to separate indicators by types• services availability indicators- Net enrolment ratio in primary education, - Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel,- Antenatal care coverage (at least 1 visit and 4 visits),- Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source …• Outcomes indicators- Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day …- Employment-to-population ratio, - Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men,- Maternal mortality ratio, - Under-five mortality rate,…NB Some indicators are not so clearly service or outcome

indicators (contraceptive prevalence rate), or are not directly population related (Proportion of species threatened with extinction, debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services)…

Poverty is a corner stone of MDGs

• Analysis of disaggregated MDG indicators has shown that the lowest quintile has the poorest records in access to services and outcomes (lowest skill attended deliveries, highest infant and maternal mortality, lowest enrolment, completed primary education and literacy…)

• Reducing poverty would result in improving most of MDG indicators, and…

• thus, countries would progress toward MDG attainment

• But it’s not only about economy: economic growth does not always reduce poverty.

• There is a need of pro-poor policies

Relationship between poverty and Reproductive Health MDGs indicators (1)

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1015202530354045

Un

met

Need

(%

) b

y Q

uin

tile

poorest

second

middle

fourth

richest

Relationship between poverty and Reproductive Health MDGs indicators (2)

0 50 100 150

Sub-Saharan Africa (22countries)

South Asia (4 countries)

South East Asia (3countries)

Latin America (9countries)

% of pregnant women with a skilled birth attendant

richest quintile

poorest quintile

Population is also at the basis of most MDGs

• Population is present nearly everywhere in the MDG process through poverty/hunger, health, education, gender, environment… indicators, and rights based approach,

• And so, many indicators are social and human development indicators and MDGs are a extensive approach to social, economic and human development (well beyond HDI – Human Development Index that consists of only 3 indicators)

• And technically – population is the basis for MDG costing and budgeting (UNDP)

III. - The relationship between Population Trends/structures

and MDGs

The positive effect of the demographic window on service indicators

• Services in reproductive health, education are linked with the number of births

• As the demographic window reduces the number of births, it is easier to increase service coverage

• Countries with high growth of birth cohorts face three challenges:

- Increase services to cope with increasing cohort size

- Increase services to increase coverage - Improve quality of services

The link between services and outcome indicators

Correlations coefficients between MDGs indicators (IMR and MMR) and various services indicators

(Pacific Island countries)

IMR MMRIMR (infant mortality rate) 0,68 **immunization against measles -0,59 ** -0,39MMR (maternal mortality ratio) 0,68 **skilled attended deliveries -0,84 ** -0,93 **access to improved water source - rural -0,87 ** -0,63 **access to improved water source - urban -0,61 ** -0,31access to improved sanitation - rural -0,93 ** -0,86 **access to improved sanitation - urban -0,83 ** -0,69 **female wage earners in non agricultural sector -0,67 ** -0,81 **literacy of the 15-24 years old -0,66 ** -0,89 **

** significant at p<0.05

Relations between MDGs indicators

• IMR and MMR are closely correlated, when IMR is high, MMR is also high.

• Both are strongly negatively correlated with access to services: skilled birth attendants and immunization, as well as improved water and sanitation: when services are low, IMR and MMR are high.

• When progress in services is slow, IMR and MMR are high.

• They are also strongly correlated with literacy/employment: when women education or participation in formal sector are low, IMR and MMR are high.

The link between population and MDG indicators

Relation between MDG attainment and population and development

(Pacific Island countries)

natural growth population growth

dependency ratio GDP/capita

poverty rate (a)

IMR (infant mortality rate) 0.53 0.70 ** 0.40 -0.64 ** 0.59 ** immunization against measles -0.26 -0.27 -0.28 0.50 -0.52 MMR (maternal mortality ratio) 0.42 0.54 0.10 -0.34 0.41 skilled attended deliveries -0.50 -0.70 ** -0.28 0.43 -0.37 access to improved water source - rural -0.41 -0.76 ** -0.21 0.42 -0.41 access to improved water source - urban 0.09 -0.53 0.15 0.21 -0.66 ** access to improved sanitation - rural -0.34 -0.53 -0.31 0.49 -0.38 access to improved sanitation - urban -0.14 -0.55 -0.07 0.40 -0.79 ** net enrolment in 1ary education -0.34 -0.64 ** -0.17 0.10 0.22 net enrolment in 2ary education -0.65 * -0.87 ** -0.41 0.58 ** 0.08 GDP/capita -0.77 ** -0.61 ** -0.63 ** 0.58 **

** significant at p<0.05; * significant at p<0.10

(a) Proportion of population below national poverty line

Correlation coefficients of selected socio-economic indicators with U5MR, MMR, and progress to goals of reducing them

countries in the ESCAP region

The link between DW and MDG attainment

• In SE Asia, dependency ratio is correlated with (among others) :

- Infant mortality rate (R2=0,575)- Maternal mortality ratio (R2=0,751), - Births attended by skilled health personal

(R2=0,871), - Proportion of children immunized against measles

(R2=0,691)- Net enrolment rate in primary education (R2=0,919)- Contraceptive prevalence rate (R2=0,833)

Infant mortality and dependency ratio (Northern and Western Africa)

mortalité infantile et taux de dépendance (Afrique du Nord et de l'Ouest)

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20

40

60

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100

120

140

160

180

30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0

Série1R2 = 0,753

Net enrolment in 1ary education and dependency ratio (Northern and Western Africa)

scolarisation en primaire et taux de dépendance (Afrique du Nord et de l'Ouest)

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120

0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0

Série1

R2 = 0,895

Migration and development, and MDG attainment

Impact of migration on the demographic window

• Migration takes away young adults and reduces the number of births - positive effect,

• Migration increases dependency ratio - negative effect,

• Brain drain takes away the most qualified (teachers, nurses, doctors…) - negative effect.

Migration, Development and MDGs

• Migration increases dependency and reduces working ages, but workers are abroad sending remittances.

• The demographic window (‘demographic bonus’) seems not to be an issue for mass migration countries.

• But do remittances reach such level and stability to make a sustainable economic system? Is the MIRAB (MIgration, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) sustainable?

• Still, the question is whether economic growth can be based on low qualified migration. Asian (Philippines, Pakistan…) and Polynesian emigration countries have low economic growth

Health and education indicators

• Quality is essential to achieve low levels of infant (IMR) and maternal (MMR) mortality, and transitions from class 1 to 6 and 1ary to 2ary education.

• Brain drain affects sustainability and quality of services – staff shortages, low qualified staff.

• This results in stagnating IMR and MMR - with IMR levels between 12 per 1,000 and 20 per 1,000 in Polynesia, Palau and Fiji, while MDG target for these countries is 10 per 1,000 or below.

• In education, 1ary completion is low and children end 1ary after several repetitions and are 2 or more years late when entering 2ary; many drop out after class 6 or form 3.

The use of remittances and MDGs

• Remittances can help reduce poverty• They are mostly used for basic needs

(food, clothing, housing,…)• But they are also used for education,

health,• They can be used for investment in

smaller or larger businesses, creating jobs• However, at the macro level, they may

also increase inflation, cost of living and raise poverty lines

The various uses of remittances and MDGs

• The many uses of remittances can improve various MDG indicators of migration countries.

- personal consumption of durable goods or in-kinds remittances, like telephones, cell phones, computers and internet connection, - Pacific countries with the largest expatriate communities are also those with the highest use of internet.

- payment of education/health of children left behind or of relatives- payment of health expenditures for parents- use of remittances for collective purposes: infrastructures (wells,

improved toilets, sewage, generator/solar panels), school books, medicine, disaster relief after hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes,…

- Support to social life: church/cultural/sports/youth associations…, can have social impact and effects on gender issues.

- Remittances used for investment or savings contribute to employment generation and economic growth.

Migration and poverty

• MDG1 is directly related to the impact of remittances on income distribution/poverty reduction.

• In the 1st phase of migration when mostly people from richer households can migrate (individual migration schemes), remittances tend to increase income inequalities

• However, there is poverty reduction if poor households receive enough to be lifted out of poverty.

• In later phases, people from poorer households also migrate (individual) and unqualified work contracts (Asia) enable poorer – maybe not the poorest - people to migrate

- But, large inflow of remittances can raise poverty lines by increasing the cost of living/inflation (Pacific).

- Sending remittances can also increase poverty among migrants’ households in host countries.

Migration, remittances and MDG 6 and 7

• Migration results in labour shortages in agriculture in origin countries, and remittances lead to new consumption patterns.

• Changes in diets and life styles have resulted in epidemic level NCDs (diabetes, cardio-vascular

diseases, cancers) and NCDs in Polynesia and have been included in MDG 6 by some countries.

• Cars (not regularly serviced), chemicals, electronics and other non recycled waste result in more pollution of air, sea and fresh water resources, impacting on MDG 7.

Conclusion

Population and Development and MDGs

• A healthy and educated population is a condition of development.

• This can be achieved through quality health and education services for all.

• This implies:- Maintain and increase coverage of services i.e. :

coping with population growth and beyond, or reducing population growth rate and fertility rate to advance the demographic window.

- Improve quality of services (infrastructures and qualification of staff).

Conditions to reap the benefits of the demographic window

GOOD GOVERNANCE- Economic and investment friendly policies,- Endorsement of international conventions,- Rule of law and human rights,- Growing and job creating economy,- Reducing poverty through pro-poor policies

(economic growth does not necessarily mean poverty reduction : case of growth based on export of raw materials)

Thank you