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Population and socio-economic trends in Ontario
Presentation by Dr. Ivan P. Fellegi,Chief Statistician of Canada
February 17th, 2007
International migration accounts for a larger share of population growth over time
Aggregated demographic components, Ontario, 1971-1972 to 2030-2031
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Year ending June 30
Projected
Net international migration
Natural increase + net interprovincial migration
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1972 – 2006 and Population Projections: 91-520-XIE.
Toronto area dominates growth in Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.
Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-KentKentKentKentKentKentKentKentKent
MiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesex
SudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudbury
ManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulin
AlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissing
Parry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry Sound
FrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenac
Leeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastings
PeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterborough
LanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanark
EssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssex
Lennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberland
OttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawa
DurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurham
Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas and Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarry
PrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrinceEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdward
Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-NorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolk
NiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagara
TorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoToronto
YorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYork
PeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeel
HaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHalton
HamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrant
OxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxford
ElginElginElginElginElginElginElginElginElgin
LambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambton
PerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerth
WaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterloo
WellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuron
BruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferin
GreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGrey
SimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoe Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha LakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakes
HaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskoka
RenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrew
Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and RussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussell
Annual rate of growth 2001-2006 (per 1,000)(number of Census Divisions)
>= 12,8 (8)0 - < 12,8 (30)< 0 (11)
TorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawa
WindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsor
HamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamilton
Ottawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-Gatineau
Ontario = 12.8 per 1,000
LondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondon
KitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchener
Population growth is highly concentrated in urbanized areas while rural population remains static over time
Source: Statistics Canada, 1901 to 2001 Censuses.
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
UrbanRural
The proportion of Ontarians aged 65 and over has been increasing over time: nearly 1 in 4 will be in this age group by 2031
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1921 to 2006 and Population Projections: 91-520-XIE.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
65 +
45-64
25-44
0-24Projected
Most immigrants to Ontario settle in the Toronto metropolitan area
% of recent immigrants who settled in Ontario
50.3
68.2
4.7
21.4
5.8
54.3
73.0
5.9
18.8
2.3
55.8
77.5
6.3
15.0
1.30
20
40
60
80
100
Ontario Toronto Ottawa Other CMA or CAin Ontario
Non-CMA or CA inOntarioPlace of residence
%
Immigrants of the 1970s in 1981 Census
Immigrants of the 1980s in 1991 Census
Immigrants of the 1990s in 2001 Census
Among which:
Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.
Similar to the national picture, immigrants to Ontario are increasingly from Asia and the Middle East
Region of birth of immigrants residing in Ontario, 2001
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Before 1961 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2001
Period of immigration
United States
Europe
Asia and the Middle East
Africa
Caribbean, Central andSouth America
Oceania and other
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
By 2017, three in 10 residents of Ontario and half of Toronto could belong to a visible minority group
Source: Statistics Canada, 1981 – 2001 Censuses and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.
Visible minority population in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2017
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
TorontoOther CMAsRest of OntOntario
Nationally, Chinese are the largest visible minority group, but South Asian is largest in Ontario and could double by 2017
Composition of visible minorities in Ontario
0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500
South Asian
Chinese
Black
Filipino
Latin American
Arab
Southeast Asian
West Asian
Korean
Japanese
Persons in '000
2017 (projections)
2001 Census
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.
Muslims could lead the growth among the non-Christian religions
Non-Christian religious groups in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario)
0
5
10
15
1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2017Year
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
MuslimJewishBuddhistHinduSikhOther non-Christian religions
Source: Statistics Canada, 1981 – 2001 Censuses and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.
Although knowledge of official languages increases over time for immigrants, about one in 10 immigrants still could not converse in either English or French
Knowledge of official language for immigrants who arrived in the 1980s with a non-English / non-French mother tongue,
Ontario
80.2
0.45.2
14.3
83.3
0.36.7 9.7
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Englishonly
Frenchonly
Englishand French
NeitherEnglish nor
FrenchKnowledge of official language
%
1991
2001
Source: Statistics Canada, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.
More than one-quarter million in Ontario may identify themselves as Aboriginal by 2017
2,100
61,500
204,200
267,700
1,600
51,300
161,700
214,600
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Inuit
Métis
North American Indian
Total Aboriginals
20012017
Note: 2001 Census counts are adjusted for census undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves. In 2017, the projected size of the Aboriginal identity population is based on demographic factors only. Although self reporting of Aboriginal identity could change over time, this element was not considered in these projections.
Aboriginal persons are concentrated in Ontario’s northern electoral districts
15% or more10 to 15%5 to 10%Less than 5%
% Population in electoraldistrict that was Aboriginal, 2001
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
Educational attainment has risen in recent decades in Ontario
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
High school or less Post Secondary University
198119912001
Highest attainment
Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.
Lowest median income districts are found in rural areas and some city centres – highest median income districts are on the CMA fringe
Golden Horseshoe
ScarboroughSouth-West
Etobicoke-NorthYork-WestYork-SouthDavenport
Don Valley WestSt. Pauls
Hamilton East& West
Lanark-CarletonNepean-CarletonCarleton-GloucesterEssex
Median incomeBlue=top 20Red=bottom 20
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
Inequality has risen due to an increase in income at the top and no change at the bottom
The income gap between higher and lower income families has risen since 1994.
In 1994, the top 10% of Ontario families earned 6.8 times that of the bottom 10% of families. By 2004 this was 9.4 times.
Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Consumer Finances ,1994, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2004.
Low income is concentrated among recent immigrants, Aboriginal peoples, lone parents and older unattached people
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Recentimmigrants
AboriginalPeople
Lone parents Unattachedw omen age
45-64
Unattachedmen age 45-
64
All
incidence of low income (%), before tax, 2001
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
Voter turnout in 2003 was higher in rural districts, districts with an older population, districts with higher income, and districts with fewer recent immigrants
60% or more
55 to 60%
Less than 55%
Voter turnout, 2003
In the literature on voter turnout, several socio-economic factors are commonly associated with turnout rates
Factors which were significantly correlated with 2003 election turnout included:
EducationAgeEmployment statusIncomeRural
Older residents had a higher proportion of provincial voting, while there was no difference between men and women
% of eligible voters who reported to have voted in the provincial election prior to 2002
36.6
84.490.4
70.5
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65 yearsand older
%% of eligible Ontario voters who reported
to have voted in the provincial election prior to 2002
73.8 76.6
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
Male Female
%
Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002.
Recent immigrants have lowest voting rates
Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002.
% of eligible immigrants who reported that they voted in the provincial election prior to 2002, Ontario
83.6
66.4
44.0
0.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
Before 1981 1981 to 1990 1991 to 1998
Period of immigration
%
75.2% of eligible Ontario voters voted in the previous provincial election
Proportions of youth are higher in northern and southwestern Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.
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P e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g h
L a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rk
E s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e x
L e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o r th u m b e r la n dN o r th u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o r th u m b e r la n d
O tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w a
D u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a m
S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s a n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rry
P r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rd
H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -N o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o r fo lkN o r fo lkN o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o r fo lk
N ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a ra
T o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n to
Y o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rk
P e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e l
H a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto n
H a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n t
O x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rd
E lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg in
L a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to n
P e rthP e rthP e rthP e r thP e r thP e rthP e rthP e rthP e r th
W a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo o
W e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro n
B ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r in
G re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re y
S im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o e K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a r th a K a w a r th a K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a r th a L a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e s
H a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k a
R e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre w
P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d R u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e ll
P ro p o r t io n o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + , 2 0 0 6 (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 )(n u m b e r o f C D s )
> = 1 6 4 .8 (1 6 )1 3 6 .0 - < 1 6 4 .8 (1 7 )< 1 3 6 .0 (1 6 )
T o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w a
W in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o r
H a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto n
O tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a t in e a uO tta w a -G a t in e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a t in e a u
O n ta r io M e d ia n P ro p o r tio n = 1 5 1 .8 p e r 1 ,0 0 0
L o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o n
K itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e r
Proportion of seniors is higher in rural areas – North excepted
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.