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Population and socio-economic trends in Ontario Presentation by Dr. Ivan P. Fellegi, Chief Statistician of Canada February 17 th , 2007

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Population and socio-economic trends in Ontario

Presentation by Dr. Ivan P. Fellegi,Chief Statistician of Canada

February 17th, 2007

International migration accounts for a larger share of population growth over time

Aggregated demographic components, Ontario, 1971-1972 to 2030-2031

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

Year ending June 30

Projected

Net international migration

Natural increase + net interprovincial migration

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1972 – 2006 and Population Projections: 91-520-XIE.

Toronto area dominates growth in Ontario

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.

Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-Chatham-KentKentKentKentKentKentKentKentKent

MiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesexMiddlesex

SudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudburySudbury

ManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulinManitoulin

AlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaAlgomaNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissingNipissing

Parry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry SoundParry Sound

FrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenacFrontenac

Leeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleLeeds and GrenvilleHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastingsHastings

PeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterboroughPeterborough

LanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanarkLanark

EssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssexEssex

Lennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonLennox and AddingtonNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberlandNorthumberland

OttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawaOttawa

DurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurhamDurham

Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas Stormont, Dundas and Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarryand Glengarry

PrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrincePrinceEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdwardEdward

Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-Haldimand-NorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolkNorfolk

NiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagaraNiagara

TorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoToronto

YorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYorkYork

PeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeelPeel

HaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHaltonHalton

HamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrantBrant

OxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxfordOxford

ElginElginElginElginElginElginElginElginElgin

LambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambtonLambton

PerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerthPerth

WaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterlooWaterloo

WellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonWellingtonHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuronHuron

BruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceBruceDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferinDufferin

GreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGreyGrey

SimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoeSimcoe Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha Kawartha LakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakesLakes

HaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonHaliburtonMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskokaMuskoka

RenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrewRenfrew

Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and Prescott and RussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussellRussell

Annual rate of growth 2001-2006 (per 1,000)(number of Census Divisions)

>= 12,8 (8)0 - < 12,8 (30)< 0 (11)

TorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoTorontoOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawaOshawa

WindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsorWindsor

HamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamiltonHamilton

Ottawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-GatineauOttawa-Gatineau

Ontario = 12.8 per 1,000

LondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondonLondon

KitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchenerKitchener

Population growth is highly concentrated in urbanized areas while rural population remains static over time

Source: Statistics Canada, 1901 to 2001 Censuses.

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

UrbanRural

The proportion of Ontarians aged 65 and over has been increasing over time: nearly 1 in 4 will be in this age group by 2031

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1921 to 2006 and Population Projections: 91-520-XIE.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

65 +

45-64

25-44

0-24Projected

Most immigrants to Ontario settle in the Toronto metropolitan area

% of recent immigrants who settled in Ontario

50.3

68.2

4.7

21.4

5.8

54.3

73.0

5.9

18.8

2.3

55.8

77.5

6.3

15.0

1.30

20

40

60

80

100

Ontario Toronto Ottawa Other CMA or CAin Ontario

Non-CMA or CA inOntarioPlace of residence

%

Immigrants of the 1970s in 1981 Census

Immigrants of the 1980s in 1991 Census

Immigrants of the 1990s in 2001 Census

Among which:

Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

Similar to the national picture, immigrants to Ontario are increasingly from Asia and the Middle East

Region of birth of immigrants residing in Ontario, 2001

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Before 1961 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2001

Period of immigration

United States

Europe

Asia and the Middle East

Africa

Caribbean, Central andSouth America

Oceania and other

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

By 2017, three in 10 residents of Ontario and half of Toronto could belong to a visible minority group

Source: Statistics Canada, 1981 – 2001 Censuses and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.

Visible minority population in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2017

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

TorontoOther CMAsRest of OntOntario

Nationally, Chinese are the largest visible minority group, but South Asian is largest in Ontario and could double by 2017

Composition of visible minorities in Ontario

0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500

South Asian

Chinese

Black

Filipino

Latin American

Arab

Southeast Asian

West Asian

Korean

Japanese

Persons in '000

2017 (projections)

2001 Census

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.

Muslims could lead the growth among the non-Christian religions

Non-Christian religious groups in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario)

0

5

10

15

1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2017Year

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

MuslimJewishBuddhistHinduSikhOther non-Christian religions

Source: Statistics Canada, 1981 – 2001 Censuses and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.

Although knowledge of official languages increases over time for immigrants, about one in 10 immigrants still could not converse in either English or French

Knowledge of official language for immigrants who arrived in the 1980s with a non-English / non-French mother tongue,

Ontario

80.2

0.45.2

14.3

83.3

0.36.7 9.7

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Englishonly

Frenchonly

Englishand French

NeitherEnglish nor

FrenchKnowledge of official language

%

1991

2001

Source: Statistics Canada, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

More than one-quarter million in Ontario may identify themselves as Aboriginal by 2017

2,100

61,500

204,200

267,700

1,600

51,300

161,700

214,600

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Inuit

Métis

North American Indian

Total Aboriginals

20012017

Note: 2001 Census counts are adjusted for census undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves. In 2017, the projected size of the Aboriginal identity population is based on demographic factors only. Although self reporting of Aboriginal identity could change over time, this element was not considered in these projections.

Aboriginal persons are concentrated in Ontario’s northern electoral districts

15% or more10 to 15%5 to 10%Less than 5%

% Population in electoraldistrict that was Aboriginal, 2001

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

Educational attainment has risen in recent decades in Ontario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

High school or less Post Secondary University

198119912001

Highest attainment

Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

Lowest median income districts are found in rural areas and some city centres – highest median income districts are on the CMA fringe

Golden Horseshoe

ScarboroughSouth-West

Etobicoke-NorthYork-WestYork-SouthDavenport

Don Valley WestSt. Pauls

Hamilton East& West

Lanark-CarletonNepean-CarletonCarleton-GloucesterEssex

Median incomeBlue=top 20Red=bottom 20

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

Inequality has risen due to an increase in income at the top and no change at the bottom

The income gap between higher and lower income families has risen since 1994.

In 1994, the top 10% of Ontario families earned 6.8 times that of the bottom 10% of families. By 2004 this was 9.4 times.

Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Consumer Finances ,1994, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2004.

Low income is concentrated among recent immigrants, Aboriginal peoples, lone parents and older unattached people

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Recentimmigrants

AboriginalPeople

Lone parents Unattachedw omen age

45-64

Unattachedmen age 45-

64

All

incidence of low income (%), before tax, 2001

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

Voter turnout in 2003 was higher in rural districts, districts with an older population, districts with higher income, and districts with fewer recent immigrants

60% or more

55 to 60%

Less than 55%

Voter turnout, 2003

In the literature on voter turnout, several socio-economic factors are commonly associated with turnout rates

Factors which were significantly correlated with 2003 election turnout included:

EducationAgeEmployment statusIncomeRural

Older residents had a higher proportion of provincial voting, while there was no difference between men and women

% of eligible voters who reported to have voted in the provincial election prior to 2002

36.6

84.490.4

70.5

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65 yearsand older

%% of eligible Ontario voters who reported

to have voted in the provincial election prior to 2002

73.8 76.6

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

Male Female

%

Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002.

Recent immigrants have lowest voting rates

Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002.

% of eligible immigrants who reported that they voted in the provincial election prior to 2002, Ontario

83.6

66.4

44.0

0.0

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

Before 1981 1981 to 1990 1991 to 1998

Period of immigration

%

75.2% of eligible Ontario voters voted in the previous provincial election

Slides in reserve

Proportions of youth are higher in northern and southwestern Ontario

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.

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P a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n dP a rry S o u n d

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L e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeL e e d s a n d G re n v illeH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g sH a s tin g s

P e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g hP e te rb o ro u g h

L a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rkL a n a rk

E s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e xE s s e x

L e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nL e n n o x a n d A d d in g to nN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o r th u m b e r la n dN o r th u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o rth u m b e r la n dN o r th u m b e r la n d

O tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w aO tta w a

D u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a mD u rh a m

S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s S to rm o n t, D u n d a s a n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rrya n d G le n g a rry

P r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eP r in c eE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rdE d w a rd

H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -H a ld im a n d -N o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o r fo lkN o r fo lkN o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o rfo lkN o r fo lk

N ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a raN ia g a ra

T o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n to

Y o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rkY o rk

P e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e lP e e l

H a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto nH a lto n

H a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n tB ra n t

O x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rdO x fo rd

E lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg inE lg in

L a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to nL a m b to n

P e rthP e rthP e rthP e r thP e r thP e rthP e rthP e rthP e r th

W a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo oW a te r lo o

W e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nW e llin g to nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro nH u ro n

B ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eB ru c eD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r inD u ffe r in

G re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re yG re y

S im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o eS im c o e K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a r th a K a w a r th a K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a rth a K a w a r th a L a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e sL a k e s

H a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nH a lib u r to nM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k aM u s k o k a

R e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre wR e n fre w

P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d P re s c o tt a n d R u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e llR u s s e ll

P ro p o r t io n o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + , 2 0 0 6 (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 )(n u m b e r o f C D s )

> = 1 6 4 .8 (1 6 )1 3 6 .0 - < 1 6 4 .8 (1 7 )< 1 3 6 .0 (1 6 )

T o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toT o ro n toO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w aO s h a w a

W in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o rW in d s o r

H a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto nH a m ilto n

O tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a t in e a uO tta w a -G a t in e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a tin e a uO tta w a -G a t in e a u

O n ta r io M e d ia n P ro p o r tio n = 1 5 1 .8 p e r 1 ,0 0 0

L o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o nL o n d o n

K itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e rK itc h e n e r

Proportion of seniors is higher in rural areas – North excepted

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.