population - climb and collapse and the open-space delusion ... (previous ppt 2)
TRANSCRIPT
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What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet
IIPopulation Growth and
the Open-space Delusion
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This PowerPoint presents an abbreviated overview of the following topics
1. Climb and Collapse
2. The potentially-calamitous -
(including examples from Easter Islandand outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide)
For additional detail see other PowerPoints and PDFs in this collection
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This PowerPoint presents a quick andabbreviated overview of the following topics
3. Earths surface layers of atmosphereand seas as Razor-thin films
and
4. Climate, CO 2 , and No other animals do this.
For additional detail see other PowerPoints and PDFs in this collection
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Population
Climb and CollapseEvents
The reason that biologists talk aboutclimb and collapse scenarios
Is because they really do occur
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The graphs below summarize the results of two classicstudies of reindeer herds on islands off Alaska.
Island one Island two
In each case, a period of exponential growth was followed bya catastrophic 99% die-off as each population collapsed.
After Scheffer, 1951 After Klein, 1968
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An initial population of less than
thirty reindeer grew slowly at first.
Growth was exponential however,and by 1928, turned sharply upward
until reachin a eak of In Scheffers study
(1910 to 1948),the forty square mile island
had no bears, wolves, or
competitors
more than 2000 reindeer.
This was followed by a decade-longcollapse with 99% of the herd
wiped out as the die-off occurred
Did you notice the gap ?( No data could be collected during World War II )
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In a 1968 scientific paper, Klein reported on a herd of reindeer that he had studied between 1944 and 1964.
On an Alaskan island withno wolves, bears, or
competitors, the initialpopulation of 29 reindeer
grew exponentially untilpeaking at more than6000 animals in 1963.
In this study, however, the collapse occurred overthe course of a single year and 99% of the herd
was wiped out as the die-off occurred
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It should at least be provocative, if not disconcerting, thatin each instance, the reindeer populations occupied
Island one Island two
less than ONE-TENTHof ONE PERCENT of the areatheoretically-available to them at the time of the collapse
After Scheffer, 1951 After Klein, 1968
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It is also sobering to noticethat a graph of our own
population growth over thepast ten millennia is,
if anything,
far more pronounced
than that seen in theclimb-and-collapse disaster
in either of the reindeer herds
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Population Growth andthe
Open-space Delusion
Part Two
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Today there is a widely-held
MISPERCEPTION that human populationgrowth cannot be truly serious as long as
vast amounts of open space remain.
Such open-space suppositions mislead usbecause they tempt us into complacency.
Real-world populations of marine dinoflagellates such as
Karenia brevis prove provocative and may have somethingto tell us about ourselves.
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In the marineenvironment, real-world
dinoflagellatepopulations such asKarenia brevis
produce red-tides andtheir associated fish-kills a
c e D e l u s
i o n
when their populationsreach concentrations of
100,000 to 1,000,000 ormore Karenia brevis cells
per liter T h e
O p e n - s
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Because each cell
releases, on an ongoingbasis, small amounts of
poisonous brevetoxins,
a c e
D e l u s
i o n
toxins reaches calamitouslevels within the
environment
in which the populationresides
T h e
O p e n - s
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Thus, Karenia brevis and
similar red-tide dinoflagellates
constitute quintessentialexamples of population
calamities a c e
D e l u s
i o n
that arise even while vastamounts of open-space
remain theoretically-available
in environments that appear tobe ALMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY T h
e
O p e n - s
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To illustrate this, wehave prepared the
illustration shown here
a c e
D e l u s
i o n
The dot in the imagedenotes
two one-thousandths
of one percent T h e
O p e n - s
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while the remaining99.998 72% of the
rectangle represents a c e
D e l u s
i o n
an enormousquantity
of unoccupied
"empty space T h e
O p e n - s
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Thus, in a one liter watersample from a red-tide, thepopulation of K. brevis cells
residing in that liter physically occupy
-
a c e
D e l u s
i o n
thousandths of one percent
of the volumeremaining theoretically-
available to them T h e
O p e n - s
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In a proportional way, the small dotin the illustration depicts the areaneeded to accommodate all one
million Karenia brevis cells a c e
D e l u s
i o n
For an outline of the supportingmathematics, see our related PDF
T h e
O p e n - s
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a c e
D e l u s
i o n
In other words, despite anapparently enormous
amount of open space,
T h e
O p e n - s and despite the fact that the
Karenia brevis population
occupies a VOLUMETRICALLY-INSIGNIFICANTportion of thearea or volume that appears to remain available,
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they have,by their combined overpopulation
and their production of harmfulwastes,
a c e
D e l u s
i o n
managed to calamitously-damagethe environment in which they
reside
T h e
O p e n - s
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a set of conditions which would seem to be worth noting a c e
D e l u s
i o n
since our own species exhibits anextraordinarily similar pattern of behavior
T h e
O p e n - s
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a c e
D e l u s
i o n
Notice then, that in all three of our population
T h e
O p e n - s
growth/population collapse examples
(two reindeer herds and
dinoflagellate red-tides)
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a c e
D e l u s
i o n
Real-world population disasters
commonly occur
even when enormous quantities(99.9% plus )
of area or volume
T h e
O p e n - s
Why should we imagine that our own species is invulnerable?
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This, of course, is not tonecessarily suggest a directapplicability of dinoflagellate
impacts and trajectories
a c e
D e l u s
i o n
to humanitys own globaltrajectories and impacts today
T h e
O p e n - s
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However, it is at least provocativeto consider that today our own
species, surrounded by aseemingly enormous atmosphereand seemingly vast amounts of
open space a c e
D e l u s
i o n
T h e
O p e n - s
also appears to be well on its way, via an ongoing release of an assortment of industrial and societal wastes,
to a significant alteration of the entire gaseousenvironment in which we live
(not to mention the catastrophic physicaldamage that we inflict everywhere else)
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Given the currentdemographic corner intowhich we seem to have
painted ourselves, a c e
D e l u s
i o n
and with our 7 th , 8th , and 9 th
billions on-trackto arrive between now and
mid-century,
T h e
O p e n - s
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one would hopethat we are collectively smarter thana mindless population of one-celled
dinoflagellates that repeatedlycascade themselves toward calamity
even while occupying less than2/1000 ths of 1%
of the total volume in which asampling resides
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Invoking sobriety, however,
we may actually be following atrajectory that is provocatively
similar to that of thedinoflagellates,
because our own species,like the red-tide dinoflagellates
of marine habitats,
releases chemical wastesand toxins into our surroundings.
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Worse still, from at least one point of view,
we may actually beon a trajectory
?? Worse than dinoflagellates ??
d i n o f l a g e l l a t e s
? ?
that isconsiderably
WORSEthan that of
the dinoflagellates ? ?
W o r s e t h a n
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(And multiple orders of magnitude worse, at that)
for dinoflagellates release d i n o f l a g e l l a t e s
? ?
only their metabolic, cellular,and biological wastes into
their environment
? ?
W o r s e t h a n
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In our own case, however, werelease
NOT ONLYour biological and metabolic wastes,
but also an d i n o f l a g e l l a t e s
? ?
UNPRECEDENTEDavalancheof societal and industrial wastes
that are being ever-amplified with ourgrowing numbers and increasing industrialization ? ?
W o r s e t h a n
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Part Three
Earths layers of atmosphere andseas as
razor-thin surface films
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In addition, we show elsewhere
that the seeming immensity of earthsatmosphere and seas is also an illusion s u
r f a c e f i l m s
another mistakenSUPPOSITION
that invites complacency R a z o r
t h i n
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Because three-quarters of the earth's surface iscovered with lakes, rivers, oceans, seas, and ice,
it is both easy and descriptive topicture our home as "a water planet
that could easily be known as s u r f a c e f i l m s
Planet Ocean
On the other hand, if we consider earth's oceans andatmosphere as strictly surface features of our planet
an entirely different assessment presents itself
R a z o r
t h i n
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For example, 99.94% of our planet consistsof its crust, mantle, and molten interior,
and the thin layer of water that we refer to as an oceanexists only as a thin and precarious surface film
that is only six one-hundredths of s u r f a c e f i l m s
one percent as thick as the earth itself
To proportionally illustrate this depth to scale on aclassroom globe, we would need a thin film of water
just twelve one-thousandths of one inch deep toaccurately convey the depth of the earth's oceans
R a z o r
t h i n
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Likewise, razor-thin films shows that earth'sseemingly-enormous atmosphere also qualifies
s u r f a c e f i l m s
as a thin and precarious surface film
which astronauts and cosmonauts have likenedto "a single layer of skin on an onion. R a
z o r
t h i n
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Review
Key Ideas So Far
Climb and Collapse Disasters
Earths atmosphere and seasas Razor - thin Films
Worse than Dinoflagellates ?
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Next
Climate, CO 2,
and i m a l s
D o
T h i s
No other animals do this.
N o
O t h e r
A n
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Although our own pollution is in some
ways reminiscent of that produced bypopulation explosions of dinoflagellates
in a marine environment,
there is a disturbing exceptionality i m a l s
D o
T h i s
to our own pollution
because it consists of FAR MOREthan our biological and metabolic
wastes N o
O t h e r
A n
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Consider, for example, an ordinaryperson living in an industrialized country
One's daily body wastes are again present, of course,but our biological wastes are natural products
that have little impact on global systems
i m a l s
D o T
h i s
ext, owever, env s on t s same personin an automobile, backed up in
crowded traffic on a busy eight-lane highway,
surrounded in every direction by hundredsof cars and trucks and buses, each spewing
exhaust from an internal combustion engine N o
O t h e r
A n
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This illustrates that we are individually
contributing MUCH MORE than our body wastesto our surroundings
And the pollutants that we emit, of course(about a pound of CO 2 per mile) i m
a l s
D o T
h i s
are NOT rare or occasional wastes ,but are daily, ongoing wastes
that we generate again and again throughout our lives N
o O t h e r
A n
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We are the only animals on earth that do this
and we repeat this behavior againand again, every day,
in Los Angeles, Beijing, Mumbai, Tokyo, Karachi, Jakarta,Marseilles, New York City, Cairo, Rome, and Rio de i m
a l s
D o T
h i s
Janiero,
releasing multiple billions of tons of wastesendlessly and relentlessly into
the thin layer of air that makes up earth's atmosphere N o
O t h e r
A n
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We are the only animals on earth that do this,and our daily demands are not yet finished
i m a l s
D o T
h i s
N o
O t h e r
A n
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We now switch on ourheating or air-conditioning systems,
run our dishwashers and clothes dryers,
operate lawnmowers and weed-trimmers,refrigerators and freezers, v e
E V E R d o n e t h i s
our street lights, fluorescent lights, toaster-ovens,microwaves, hair-dryers, steel mills, shopping malls,
bowling lanes, televisions,and hot-water heaters N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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And we repeat these and similar activitiesEVERY DAY
so that in serving us, our power plantsrelease tons upon tons of additional wastes,
relentlessly and endlessly ,into the onion-skin-thin la er of air v
e E V E R d o n e t h i s
that comprises the atmosphere
N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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We are the ONLY animals that do this,
or that have EVER done this,
and to these we have yet to add wastes v e E V E R d o n e t h i s
,
throw-away containers, and millions of items
that have been shippedhalfway around the world N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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No other animals on earth
SUPPLEMENTtheir biological and metabolic wastes in this way
v e E V E R d o n e t h i s
No other animals on earthhave EVERsupplemented their
biological and metabolic wastes in this way N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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And even dinoflagellates,in the worst of red tide outbreaks
that have ever occurred,
have NEVER supplemented their cellularand metabolic wastes in this way.
v e E V E R d o n e t h i s
And our EXCEPTIONALITYin this behavioris not an incidental or minimal
footnote to our biology
it is a pronounced and all-encompassingcharacteristic of our civilizations and our species N
o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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How can we imagine that endless billionsof us can endlessly behave in this way
without calamitous repercussions? v e
E V E R d o n e t h i s
If we intend to enjoy such extravagance,our populations must be smaller
N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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Even if world population did not grow at all,
these and similar impacts might be expectedto DOUBLE as the world's poorest nations industrialize
and seek to emulate our own standard of living
Yet, even though the earth's atmosphereis not responding very well to our current assaults,
we nevertheless appear intent upon
adding our 7th, 8th, and 9th billionsbetween now and mid-century
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A provocative perspective recently appeared inHOT, FLAT, AND CROWDED (Friedman, 2008).
Author Friedman cites California Institute of Technology chemist Nate Lewis as follows:
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"Imagine you are driving your car and every mile youdrive you throw a pound of trash out your window.
And everyone else on the freeway in their cars and trucksare doing the exact same thing, and people drivingHummers are throwing two bags out at a time one outthe driver-side window and one out the assen er-side v
e E V E R d o n
e t h i s
window.
Well, that is exactly what we are doing; you just cant seeit. Only what we are throwing out is a pound of CO 2
thats what goes into the atmosphere, on average, everymile we drive. N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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Multiple Ordersof MAGNITUDE WORSE
To summarize, it is provocative that calamitousred-tides like those produced by Karenia brevis
v e E V E R d o n e t h i s
population growth associated with poisonous wastes)
routinely trigger catastrophic consequences in the
environment in which they reside. N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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Today, in a similar way, mankinds release of
environmental wastes and toxins characterizes our ownpopulation explosion.
Unfortunately, however, we are not releasing only our v e E V E R d o n e t h i s
, ,surroundings.
N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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Instead, we are supplementing our biological wastes, in away that is UNPRECEDENTED in the history of life on earth,
with tons upon tons of societal and industrial wastes
v e E V E R d o n e t h i s
so that WE may be embarked on a trajectory thatis even worse than that of red-tide dinoflagellates
and multiple orders of magnitude worse, at that.
N o o t h e r a n
i m a l s h
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Thus, the widely-held supposition that theexistence of vast amounts of open space somehow
exempts us from population calamity
is nothing more c e s u p p o s
i t i o n
an an us on
a dangerously-erroneousopen-space delusion.
T h e
O p e n - s p
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Footnote
In his book C OLLAPSE(2005), Jared Diamondrecounts the collapse of the original human
population living on Easter Island
And just as it proved provocative to calculate c e s u p p o s
i t i o n
the open-space remaining during populationexplosions of red-tide dinoflagellates,
a similar assessment can be made of the peak human population on Easter Island
at the onset of its collapse T h e
O p e n - s p
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Therefore, in Wecskaop and inour posted PDF on this topic,
we analyze Easter Island's total area (open space) atthe onset of the collapse of its human population.
The calculations hint that the island's human c e s u p p o s
i t i o n
99 . 999 97% of the island's totalarea remained unoccupied
and " vast amounts of open-space still remained supposedly-available T h e
O p e n - s p
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It is interesting to note that the results of
the dinoflagellate analysis (2/1000ths of 1%)
show such an unexpected similarity to asimilar analysis applied to the historical c e
s u p p o s
i t i o n
(less than 3/1000ths of 1%)
T h e
O p e n - s p
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A major difference, of course, is that dinoflagellate impactsarise from wastes released into their surroundings,
while the impacts of the human population onEaster Island (at a pre-industrial stage of development)
c e s u p p o s
i t i o n
arose from physical damage to their surroundingsinvolving deforestation and over-exploitation
of island birds, seabirds, and vegetation.
T h e
O p e n - s p
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Today, however, our highly -industrialized populations have:
1: greatly-amplified physical impacts
think of chain saws lo in concessions as halt i m a l s
D o T
h i s
paving, and industrialized fishing fleets, for example)
and
2: our impacts are global N
o O t h e r
A n
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And thirdly, as we have become industrialized,we have now joined
(and enormously surpassed )dinoflagellate populations as a species that
produces and releases wastes into our environment.
Thus, in addition to our greatly-amplified physical i m a l s
D o T
h i s
damage and an enormous world populationthat will see us add our 7 th , 8 th , and 9 th
billions between now and mid-century,
we must now add our unprecedented production of industrial and societal wastes. N
o O t h e r
A n
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but our species alone supplements its biological wastes with anon-going, ever-increasing, and unparalleled avalanche of
industrial and societal wastes which is:
Therefore, not only do we release the normal cellular andbiological wastes to which natural systems are generally adapted,
(a) unique among all animals on earth,
(b) unique among all animal species that have ever lived ,
and
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(c) is multiple orders of
magnitude worse
than any catastrophic outbreakof dinoflagellate red-tide i m
a l s
D o T
h i s
in the history of the earth
N
o O t h e r
A n
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i m a l s
D o T
h i s
N
o O t h e r
A n
A continuation of todays demographic tidal wave may constitute thegreatest single risk that our species has ever undertaken
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For further information, see our book Wecskaopand/or other PowerPoints and PDFs in this series
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This PowerPoint features excerpts from
Anson, A. 2008. What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet.
Used with permission.
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The book version of Wecskaop is availableat 386-673-5576