Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences

and Controversies

Introduction

• As the twenty-first century began, the world population was estimated to be almost 6.1 billion people.

• Projections by the United Nation placed figure at more than 9.2 billion people by the year 2050 before reaching a maximum of 11 billion by 2200.

• Over 90% of that population will inhabit the developing world.

• What will be the economic and social implications for levels of living, national and personal esteem, and freedom of choice?

Population Growth, 1750-2200: World, Less Developed Regions, and More Developed

Regions

Population Pyramid –Demographers uses the pyramid to predict the population growth of a country It is divided into 3 stages which are Pre Reproductive 0 – 14 years Reproductive 15 – 44 years post Reproductive 45 and above

Rwanda- Most of its population are in the Pre reproductive stage Forecast - High population growth Canada – There are less people in the pre – reproductive stage Forecast – slow population growth Japan - Majority of its population are in the post reproductive stage Forecast – population starts to decline as population reaches reproductive stage

Population growth and quality of life

• Every year approximately 80 million people are being added to the world’s population.

• Almost all of this net population increase-97%- is in developing countries.

• Population growth is a problem of human welfare and of development.

• Rapid population growth can have serious consequences for the well-being of all humanity.

Population growth and quality of life • If development entails the improvement in

people’s level of living – their incomes, health, education and general well-being – and if it is also encompasses their self-esteem, respect, dignity, and freedom to choose, then really important question about population growth is this:

• How does the population situation in many developing countries contribute to or detract from their chances of realizing the goals of development, not only for the current generation but also for future generations?

Among the major issues relating to

this basic question are the following: 1. Will developing countries be capable of

improving the levels of living for their people with the current and anticipated levels of population growth? To what extent does rapid population increase make it more difficult to provide essential social services, including housing, transport, sanitation, and security?

• What are the implications of higher population growth rates among the world’s poor for their chances of overcoming the human misery of absolute poverty?

• Given the anticipated population growth, will developing countries be able to extent the coverage and improve the quality of their health and educational systems so that everyone can at least have the chance to secure adequate health care and a basic education?

• To what extent are low levels of living an important factor in limiting the freedom of parents to choose a desired family size? Is there a relationship between poverty and family size?

The Demographic transition Model

(DTM) • DTM describes a sequence of changes in the

relationships between birth and death rates. The model was produced using changes in the natural increase in several countries in Western Europe and North America.

• This model suggests that the population growth rates for all countries can be divided into 4 stages

DTM Stage 1

• Birth Rate - Very High

• Death Rate - Very High

• Natural Increase - Population Steady

Reasons for changes in birth rate: Children needed for farming, They die at an early age due to illnesses, No family planning, And religious and social encouragement.

Reasons for changes in death rate: Disease, Famine, Poor medical knowledge and so many people die.

DTM Stage 2

• Birth Rate - Very High

• Death Rate - Falling Rapidly

• Natural Increase - Very Rapid Increase

• Reasons for changes in birth rate: Children needed for farming, They die at an early age due to illnesses, No family planning and religious and social encouragement. (same as stage 1)

DTM Stage 2 Cont’d

Reasons for change in death rate: Improvements in medical care, Water Supply and sanitation

Fewer children die.

DTM Stage 3

• Birth Rate: Falling rapidly

• Death Rate: Falling more slowly

• Natural Increase: Rapid increase

Reasons for changes in birth rate: Improved medical care and diet , Fewer children are needed

Reasons for changes in death rate: Improvements in medical care, Water Supply and sanitation

DTM Stage 4

• Birth Rate: Falling more slowly

• Death rate: Slight fall

• Natural Increase: Very slow increase

Reasons for changes in birth rate: Family planning, Good health, Later marriages, Improving status of women

Reasons for changes in death rate: Good health care

Reliable food supply, People are living much longer

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

The Malthusian Population Trap,

• The Malthusian trap named after the 19th-

century political economist Thomas Malthus.

• He believed that population can or will outgrow the means to feed itself.

• The result would be widespread famine.

• Malthus observed that plants and animals produced significantly more offspring than could survive.

(1) Food is necessary to the life of man and, therefore, exercises a strong check on population. In other words, population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence (i.e., food). (2) Population increases faster than food production. Whereas population increases in geometric progression, food production increases in arithmetic progression. (3) Population always increases when the means of subsistence increase, unless prevented by some powerful checks.

The theory propounded by Malthus can be summed up in the following propositions:

The Malthusian Population Trap Cont’d • He argued that the potential existed for population

to increase exponentially, while resources were finite, limiting the ability of society to increase food production.

• He concluded that humans, unless restricted, could also overproduce and, with limited food production, outstrip their ability to feed themselves

• Malthus advocated regulation of birth rates so that poor families did not produce more offspring than they could support.

• Most criticism of the Malthusian trap centers on Malthus’ apparent inability to foresee the tremendous advances in technology and the ability to increase food production with a finite amount of land.

Proposed Solutions • Two type of checks which hold population

within resources limits.

• Positive checks – which raise the death rate and;

• Preventative checks – which lower the birth rate.

• Positive checks includes hunger, disease and war.

• Preventative checks includes abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy