population, housing, & employment orange county, california victoria basolo, ph.d., aicp...
TRANSCRIPT
Population, Housing, & Population, Housing, & EmploymentEmployment
Orange County, CaliforniaOrange County, California
Victoria Basolo, Ph.D., AICP
Department of Planning, Policy, and Design
University of California, Irvine
Presented: May 2, 2003
POPULATIONPOPULATION
Population, Percent Change 1990-2000Population, Percent Change 1990-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
Population Density, 1990 & 2000Population Density, 1990 & 2000
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
1990
2000
Persons persquare mile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Orange Riverside San Diego
65 and over
45-64
25-44
18-24
Under 18
Orange Riverside San Diego 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Orange
Riverside
San Diego
Population Projections, 2000-2020Population Projections, 2000-2020
Source: California Department of Finance, 2000
• Orange County grew by 18.1% from 1990 to 2000, faster than the State as a whole
• Over the next 20 years, the County is expected to grow by an additional 22.4%
• Much of the increase in population will be from natural increase, existing residents maturing through the life cycle
Orange County Population SummaryOrange County Population Summary
HOUSINGHOUSING
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
1990
2000
Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
1990
2000
Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
*Includes mobile homes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
1990
2000
Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
19902000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
19902000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Orange Riverside San Diego
Median Value
Median Contract Rent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000
Housing CostsHousing Costs
Index1 Rank2 FMR3 FMR3 FMR4th qtr. Rents Rents % Increase
MSA 2001 2001 2002 2001-2002
Orange (County) 37 19 1046 1097 4.9%San Bernardino-Riverside 50.8 37 621 656 5.6%San Diego 22.4 8 896 1012 12.9%
1 Housing Opportunity Index (NAHB, 2002): Share of homes affordable to median income2 Rank of MSA out of 181 regions across the nation (NAHB, 2002)3 Fair Market Rent for a 2 bedroom unit (HUD, 2002)
Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 3.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego CA
1990
2000
• Orange County housing stock grew by 10.8% from 1990 to 2000, lagging behind demand as are many of CA housing markets
• In 2000, vacancy rates were very low at less than 1% for owner housing and 3% for renter housing
• Median housing value increased by about 7% and Median contract rent at just over 18% from 1990 to 2000
• Orange County housing is very expensive• Overcrowded units increased by 15.7% in the
1990s.
Orange County Housing SummaryOrange County Housing Summary
EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT
Employment Change, 1990 to 2000Employment Change, 1990 to 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
1990 2000 % Change
Orange County 1,292,472 1,338,838 3.59%Los Angeles 4,203,792 3,953,415 -5.96%Riverside 488,257 602,856 23.47%San Bernardino 591,371 661,272 11.82%San Diego 1,145,266 1,241,258 8.38%California 13,996,309 14,718,928 5.16%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Orange CA
1990
2000
Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Orange County Employment by Industry, 2000Orange County Employment by Industry, 2000
6.1%
16.1%
8.8%2.9%17.0%
12.6%
2.9%
11.2%
3.6%8.3%5.0% 0.4%5.0%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining
Arts, Entertainment, Recr., Accom. &Food Serv.
Construction
Education, Health, & Social Services
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
Information
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific, Mngmnt., Admin.,& Waste Mngmnt Serv.
Public Administration
Retail
Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Other ServicesSource: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Orange LosAngeles
Riverside SanBernardino
San Diego
1990
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Percent Work and Live in Same County, Percent Work and Live in Same County, 1990 & 20001990 & 2000
• The number of Orange County resident employees grew by 3.59% from 1990 to 2000, a much smaller increase than most of the surrounding counties
• Unemployment increased slightly from 1990 to 2000
• Residents are employed in a diverse number of industries suggesting an overall diversified economy
Orange County Employment SummaryOrange County Employment Summary
OVERALL OUTLOOKOVERALL OUTLOOK
• Housing production lags far behind demand and market “catch up” unlikely
•Identified as “High Tech” Economy by Landis & Elmer (2001)--high tech economies associated with higher cost housing
•Housing considered the most important public policy issue by only 6% of OC residents (UCI, OC Annual Survey, 2000), but cited as #1 barrier to doing business in OC (UCI, 2001 OC Executive Survey)
Growth, Housing, and the Economy Growth, Housing, and the Economy
•Existing housing needs are unmet and future population growth creates additional needs for housing
• Economy’s diversity and high tech cluster presents the need for higher middle income housing as well as housing affordable to service workers
•Housing development requires integrative, collective effort among business, residents, and public officials
Innovations Through Integrated, Innovations Through Integrated, Collective ActionCollective Action
• Cooperative development of programs to link housing and jobs– Loans to employees who stay longer terms with employers and live close to work (sliding scale from full
repayment to fully forgiven)– Rental development agreements among employers, developers, and cities/counties (lease up at market and
below market rents guaranteed for period of years)– Development incentives to developers building mixed-income housing near job centers (loans, increased density,
land at reduced cost)
• Cooperative Housing Development Fund– Regional fund receiving donations and stream of revenue from employee tax and sales tax– Land Trust (non profit) receiving donations and purchasing properties for permanent affordability
• Cooperative Effort for State Legislation– State tax credits for businesses with employer-assisted housing programs (certified by staff overseeing
regional housing fund)– State tax credits for landowners (landlords and owners) who demonstrate proximity of tenant to place of work