Population Movement Into and Out of Canada's Immigrant Gateway Cities

--- A Comparative Study of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver Feng Hou Business and Labour Market Analysis Division

Statistics Canada

Larry BourneCenter for Urban and Community Studies

University of Toronto

Motivation

• Net loss in internal migration in major immigrant gateway centers in the developed countries

• Is internal migration linked with immigration? -- “one of the most important unresolved questions about U.S. immigration” (Card, 2001). “a major research challenge” (Champion, 1994)

The issues

• The local impact of immigration on wages and employment of native-born workers

• Geographic division of population characteristics

--- William Frey:

“demographic balkanization”,

“new white flight”,

“three Americas” – New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland

Why immigration and internal migration may be linked?

• Job competition, labour substitution

• Perceived social costs

• The desire for suburban life-style

• Cultural avoidance + within-group attraction

Alternative explanations:

• Economic restructuring

(Walker et al. 1992; Wright et al. 1997)

• Housing price variations

(Ley 2003)

--- Business cycles usually not a factor at the metropolitan area level

Previous studies

• Negative correlation:

Frey(1994-2002), Filer (1992), Borjas et al (1997), White and Liang (1998)

• No correlation:

White and Imai (1994), Walker et al. (1992),

Wright et al (1997), Card and DiNardo (2000), Card (2001), Kritz and Gurak (2001)

• Limitations of previous studies

A place-specific approach (Wright, Ellis and Reibel 1997):

• Focus on major immigrant gateway centers

• Characteristics of in- and out-migrants

• How in-migrants interact with immigrants and other local residents in the local labour market

• Where out-migrants move to and how they fare after the move

-- Limitations: difficult to establish statistical relationship

Research Questions:

1. Have the Canadian-born population and long-term immigrants become more likely to move away from and less likely to move into the three large urban areas?

2. Do these trends vary with education level, language and visible minority status?

3. To what extent is the level of recent immigration associated with the trends in out- and in-migration?

Data and Measures

• The 1981 to 2001 census micro-data files

• Population aged 25 to 64

• In- and out-migration over 5yrs between censuses

Analyses:

1. Net-migration flows, total and by education, language, and visible minority status

2. Changes in out- and in-migration rates, total and by education, language, and visible minority status

3. Modeling the effects of economic restructuring, housing market, and immigration

Toronto

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

Canadian born Immigrants

Montreal

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

Canadian born Immigrants

1976-81

1981-86

1986-91

1991-96

1996-01

1.1 No consistent changes in net-migration flows

Vancouver

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

Canadian born Immigrants

1.2 Internal migration involves different population flows in the three cities

• Toronto gains well-educated, loses Anglophones, whites and less well-educated

• Montreal gains Francophones, loses immigrants

• Vancouver gains well-educated, allophones, and immigrants

Out- rate, Canadian born

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Toronto Montreal Vancouver

80s 90s

%

Out- rate, immigrants

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Toronto Montreal Vancouver

80s 90s

%

In- rate, Canadian born

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Toronto Montreal Vancouver

80s

90s

%

In- rate, immigrants

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Toronto Montreal Vancouver

80s

90s

%

2.1 Declines in- and out-migration rates

Increases in out- rates among people with < high school, stable in- rates among CB visible minorities in Toronto and Vancouver

Montreal: increases in out- rates among CB visible minorities, large decreases in both out- and in- rates among Anglophones

2.2 Increased out-migration rates among the less well educated in Toronto and Vancouver

3. Economic restructuring, housing market, and immigration are not consistently linked to internal migration in the three cities

• Higher house prices and immigrant growth related rise in the out-migration rate among the less-well educated Canadian-born in Toronto and Vancouver

• No consistent effect of economic restructuring

• Little effects among long-term immigrants

Summary Continued net loss of migrants in Toronto and Montreal, the

volume decreased in Toronto. From net gain to net loss in Vancouver.

Internal migration increases social diversity and education level In Toronto and Vancouver, helps to maintain Montreal’s concentration of Francophones and reduces the education level of the city’s immigrant labour force.

Large decline in in-migration rate in the 1990s. Toronto and Montreal also sent out fewer migrants.

Increased out-migration rates of the less well-educated in Toronto and Vancouver.

Immigrant growth related to rise in out-migration among less well educated in Toronto and Vancouver.

The effects of restructuring and house price variation not consistent; in the hypothesized direction only in Toronto.