Socioeconomic

Projections Population and Employment by Municipal Planning Area, Jurisdiction, and Regional Analysis Zone

June 2016 : FINAL

302 North 1st Avenue, Suite 300

Phoenix, Arizona 85003

(602) 254-6300

www.azmag.gov

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Population and Employment Projections by MPA _________________________ 1

Municipal Planning Areas (MPA) 2016 Map ________________________________________ 3

Table 1: Total Population by MPA _______________________________________________ 5

Table 2: Total Employment by MPA ______________________________________________ 6

Annual Population Projections by Jurisdiction _____________________________ 7

Table 3: Population Projections by Jurisdiction 2015 to 2050 ______________________ 9 - 15

Population and Employment Projections by RAZ _________________________ 17

Regional Analysis Zones (RAZ) 2016 Map ________________________________________ 19

Table 4: Population and Employment Projections by RAZ ________________________ 21 - 28

Resolution Approving the 2016 MAG Socioeconomic Projections ___________ 29

Appendices __________________________________________________________ 31

Appendix A: Notes and Caveats ________________________________________________ 33

Appendix B: Glossary of Terms ________________________________________________ 34

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Population and Employment Projections by

Municipal Planning Area (MPA)

2015 to 2050

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Maricopa Association of GovernmentsTable 1: Total Population by Municipal Planning Area

July 1, 2015 and Projections July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2050

Municipal Planning Area 2015 2020 2030 2040

Total Population

2050

ApacheJunction 55,100 58,100 68,500 95,900 125,400Avondale 80,500 86,800 95,600 112,400 126,300Buckeye 72,900 87,700 147,600 310,800 488,000Carefree 3,500 4,100 5,000 5,300 5,500CaveCreek 5,600 6,400 7,400 8,800 9,800Chandler 263,100 286,000 312,300 327,700 338,700ElMirage 33,300 35,300 35,700 38,200 41,800Florence 71,200 82,300 106,000 134,300 164,500FortMcDowell 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,100FountainHills 23,300 26,000 28,300 30,400 32,600GilaBend 2,400 2,900 3,500 4,900 6,600GilaRiver 11,900 12,100 12,200 12,200 12,200Gilbert 246,300 260,800 286,200 299,800 304,100Glendale 262,600 282,800 305,600 323,900 343,800Goodyear 80,200 98,600 154,200 207,400 293,100Guadalupe 6,100 6,500 6,700 6,800 6,800LitchfieldPark 12,600 14,000 14,200 15,000 15,600Maricopa 56,500 74,800 102,600 127,600 161,100MaricopaCountyAreas 96,200 105,100 115,000 141,800 208,900Mesa 505,200 555,000 620,100 661,200 684,300ParadiseValley 13,700 14,200 14,900 15,100 15,500Peoria 177,400 200,900 271,200 309,700 342,600Phoenix 1,579,700 1,731,300 1,988,800 2,160,200 2,277,700PinalCountyAreas 96,000 101,900 119,600 149,600 181,800QueenCreek 45,500 57,500 83,000 92,700 98,200SaltRiverPima 6,600 6,800 7,100 7,600 8,000Scottsdale 231,300 255,000 290,800 308,700 312,000Surprise 136,400 148,000 239,000 362,200 452,300Tempe 172,100 188,100 222,800 255,500 264,500Tolleson 6,800 7,600 10,800 14,000 14,800Wickenburg 8,000 9,700 14,100 14,600 14,800Youngtown 6,500 6,800 7,500 8,100 8,400

Source:MaricopaAssociationofGovernments(MAG)SocioeconomicProjectionsofPopulationandEmploymentbyMunicipalPlanningArea(MPA)andRegionalAnalysisZone(RAZ),May2016

Forexplanationofvariablesandcompletenotationonthisseries,pleaserefertotheNotesandCaveatsinAppendixA.

5

Notes:Numbersroundedtothenearest100.TheseprojectionsincludeboththeMaricopaCountyandPinalCountyportionsforApacheJunction,QueenCreek,andtheGilaRiverIndianCommunity.PeoriaandWickenburgincludeonlytheMaricopaCountyportion.

Maricopa Association of GovernmentsTable 2: Total Employment by Municipal Planning Area

July 1, 2015 and Projections July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2050

Municipal Planning Area 2015 2020 2030 2040

Total Employment

2050

ApacheJunction 10,000 11,300 17,000 26,500 39,300Avondale 17,700 22,100 25,400 33,500 52,200Buckeye 13,700 18,900 35,500 78,300 143,600Carefree 1,800 2,000 2,300 2,600 2,700CaveCreek 2,300 2,600 3,200 3,700 4,500Chandler 132,400 150,700 176,200 193,700 204,600ElMirage 4,300 5,000 6,400 7,900 9,000Florence 12,200 14,400 20,700 30,600 44,000FortMcDowell 1,900 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,100FountainHills 7,800 8,500 9,500 10,600 11,000GilaBend 900 1,100 1,900 2,300 2,600GilaRiver 9,700 12,100 17,100 18,400 20,300Gilbert 91,900 101,600 126,100 143,800 157,700Glendale 92,700 110,700 137,000 178,200 206,900Goodyear 31,500 40,300 54,600 75,800 104,600Guadalupe 1,200 1,400 1,500 1,500 1,500LitchfieldPark 2,400 2,500 2,800 2,900 3,100Maricopa 6,100 7,500 14,900 26,400 42,100MaricopaCountyAreas 25,600 28,200 30,200 33,800 44,800Mesa 175,400 202,600 226,600 280,000 318,200ParadiseValley 5,300 5,400 6,200 6,700 7,500Peoria 49,500 55,700 72,600 89,400 118,000Phoenix 816,100 910,500 990,900 1,069,800 1,159,700PinalCountyAreas 5,200 6,100 9,100 13,400 19,300QueenCreek 9,600 12,200 16,400 20,600 22,700SaltRiverPima 17,800 20,300 26,700 32,900 42,300Scottsdale 184,500 199,000 224,000 235,400 245,500Surprise 26,500 32,200 55,300 87,900 120,300Tempe 184,000 199,300 222,300 231,700 238,900Tolleson 14,000 15,500 17,500 18,400 20,700Wickenburg 4,100 4,400 4,900 5,400 6,600Youngtown 1,800 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400

Source:MaricopaAssociationofGovernments(MAG)SocioeconomicProjectionsofPopulationandEmploymentbyMunicipalPlanningArea(MPA)andRegionalAnalysisZone(RAZ),May2016

Forexplanationofvariablesandcompletenotationonthisseries,pleaserefertotheNotesandCaveatsinAppendixA.

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Notes:Numbersroundedtothenearest100.TheseprojectionsincludeboththeMaricopaCountyandPinalCountyportionsforApacheJunction,QueenCreek,andtheGilaRiverIndianCommunity.PeoriaandWickenburgincludeonlytheMaricopaCountyportion.

Population Projections by

Jurisdiction

Annually 2015 to 2050

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Maricopa Association of GovernmentsTable 3: Annual Population by Jurisdiction

July 1, 2015 and Projections July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2050

Place 2016 2017 2018 2019Total Population

20202015

ApacheJunction 38,800 39,300 39,800 40,300 40,80038,400Avondale 80,200 81,400 82,600 84,000 85,20078,900Buckeye 64,100 66,600 69,100 71,800 74,40061,200Carefree 3,700 3,700 3,900 4,000 4,1003,500CaveCreek 5,600 5,800 6,000 6,300 6,3005,400Chandler 259,800 263,500 266,800 269,700 275,200255,100ElMirage 34,000 34,400 34,800 35,100 35,30033,300Florence 27,100 27,800 28,500 29,300 30,00026,400FortMcDowell 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0001,000FountainHills 23,800 24,200 24,800 25,600 26,00023,300GilaBend 2,300 2,300 2,400 2,400 2,5002,000GilaRiver 11,900 12,000 12,100 12,100 12,10011,900Gilbert 246,500 248,500 250,900 253,100 257,200242,900Glendale 237,500 241,100 244,500 248,000 250,700234,800Goodyear 81,000 85,200 89,200 92,800 95,90077,800Guadalupe 6,200 6,200 6,300 6,400 6,5006,100LitchfieldPark 6,400 6,600 6,900 7,100 7,3006,000Maricopa 51,400 54,600 58,000 61,400 64,50048,400MaricopaCountyAreas 286,400 292,700 301,900 311,800 320,700283,200Mesa 467,600 477,400 487,100 497,600 506,600461,000ParadiseValley 13,900 14,000 14,100 14,200 14,20013,700Peoria 171,100 174,900 179,000 182,400 186,300167,500Phoenix 1,554,100 1,584,600 1,614,800 1,644,400 1,671,1001,527,500PinalCountyAreas 200,200 204,400 208,700 213,100 217,800196,100QueenCreek 35,600 36,800 38,200 39,500 43,20034,000SaltRiver 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,8006,600Scottsdale 238,600 242,700 246,600 250,500 254,900231,200Surprise 128,000 130,200 132,200 134,100 136,100125,600Tempe 175,400 178,600 181,700 184,700 188,000172,000Tolleson 6,900 7,000 7,200 7,400 7,6006,800Wickenburg 7,100 7,400 7,700 8,200 8,3006,600Youngtown 6,500 6,600 6,600 6,700 6,8006,500

Source:MaricopaAssociationofGovernments(MAG)SocioeconomicProjectionsofPopulationandEmploymentbyMunicipalPlanningArea(MPA)andRegionalAnalysisZone(RAZ),May2016

Forexplanationofvariablesandcompletenotationonthisseries,pleaserefertotheNotesandCaveatsinAppendixA.

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Notes:Numbersroundedtothenearest100.TheseprojectionsincludeboththeMaricopaCountyandPinalCountyportionsforApacheJunction,QueenCreek,andtheGilaRiverIndianCommunity.PeoriaandWickenburgincludeonlytheMaricopaCountyportion.

Maricopa Association of GovernmentsTable 3: Annual Population by Jurisdiction

July 1, 2015 and Projections July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2050

Place 2021 2022 2023 2024Total Population

2025

ApacheJunction 41,500 42,100 42,700 43,400 44,000Avondale 86,100 86,900 87,600 88,100 88,600Buckeye 77,200 79,800 82,600 85,800 89,200Carefree 4,200 4,200 4,300 4,500 4,600CaveCreek 6,500 6,600 6,600 6,700 6,800Chandler 280,400 285,000 288,400 291,400 292,800ElMirage 35,300 35,400 35,500 35,600 35,600Florence 30,700 31,300 32,000 32,600 33,300FortMcDowell 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000FountainHills 26,600 27,100 27,400 27,600 27,700GilaBend 2,500 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,700GilaRiver 12,100 12,100 12,100 12,200 12,200Gilbert 260,800 264,400 267,500 270,700 272,800Glendale 253,000 255,100 256,800 258,400 259,700Goodyear 98,500 103,000 107,000 111,600 116,700Guadalupe 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,600 6,700LitchfieldPark 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,300Maricopa 67,000 69,700 72,200 74,800 77,500MaricopaCountyAreas 328,800 337,200 346,600 355,800 364,300Mesa 514,900 521,700 527,800 533,800 539,400ParadiseValley 14,200 14,300 14,400 14,400 14,500Peoria 190,700 195,400 201,000 208,000 216,600Phoenix 1,696,300 1,720,100 1,744,500 1,769,400 1,795,300PinalCountyAreas 222,700 228,000 233,300 239,000 244,800QueenCreek 47,300 50