PopulationPopulationPopulationPopulation

Powerpoint produced by Rachel Farrell (PDST) & Aoife Healion (SHS, Tullamore)Sources of information: SEC Marking Schemes, newspaper articles & documentaries

Syllabus Economics of Population • Global and national population,

size, composition and trends. • Over, under and optimum

population. • The labour force and employment. • The importance of population, and

its influence on economic development and growth.

Exam Questions OL• Short• 2009 Q 2• 2006 Q 2

• Long• 2013 Q 7• 2012 Q 5• 2011 Q 8 (a) & (b) • 2010 Q 7 (a) • 2009 Q 6• 2008 Q 3 (c)• 2007 Q 6 • 2005 Q 6 (a) & (c)• 2003 Q 7• 2002 Q 7 (c)• 2001 Q 7 (c)

Exam Questions HL• Short• 2010 Q 9• 2006 Q 1• 2001 Q 9

• Long• 2011 Q 8 (a) (b) (c)• 2010 Q 8 (b) (c)• 2008 Q 7 (c)• 2005 Q 8 (a)• 2003 Q 7 (c)

Under Population• Occurs when output and income

per head increases as the population rises.

• As the population increases most people become better off.

• Eg. Australia, Newzeland & Canada, & Japan

Complete “skimming an article exercise” on pdst website

Problems of underpopulation

1. Increases the dependency ratio2. Smaller domestic market3. Labour shortages4. Less people to pay back the national

debt.

Students: Write a brief explanation of each of these headings.

Overpopulation• Occurs in a country when output

and income per head fall as the population rises.

• The economic resources are unable to support the increase in population without causing a decline in the SOL.

• Eg. India, China & Ethiopia.

Problems of overpopulation

1. Unemployment2. Low SOL3. Pressure on resources, health, ed…4. Scarcity of food5. Land prices may increase6. Harm to the environmentStudents: Write a brief explanation of each

of these headings.

Optimum population

• Occurs when the level of population is such that the economic resources of the country are providing the maximum output per head.

Factors that influence the size of population

1. Birth Rate• Is the number of live births for every 1,000

members of the population.

2. Death Rate• Is the number of deaths per 1,000 of the

population.

• For population replacement the birth rate must be higher than the death rate

3. Infant Mortality Rate• Is the average number of deaths per

year per 1,000 live births.

4. Net Rate of Emigration/Immigration• Is the total number of people who

enter minus the total number who leave the country on a yearly basis.

Emigration

• Is the number of people who leave the country permanently.

Push forces

• Factors that compel people to leave their own country.

• Eg. Unemployment, low wages…

Pull forces• Factors that attract people to

another country.• Eg. Climate, higher wages & job

opp

Advantages of emigration

1. Reduction in unemployment• Eases the pressure on gov to provide

s/w & jobs.

2. Reduces social costs of unemployment • Less vandalism & crime• Emigrants return with skills & money.

Disadvantages of emigration

1. Smaller domestic market• Less sales may lead to more

unemployment.

2. Brain drain• Benefits of money spent on

education goes to other countries

3. Increase in the dependency ratio• Mostly 18 to 35 year olds leave.• Less revenue from tax.• More young & old in the country.• Greater burden on the

government finances to provide services.

Immigration

• Is when people from other countries come to live in Ireland permanently.

Net migration

• Means that there are more people entering the country than leaving it.

• Ie. immigration is larger than emigration.

Advantages of Immigration

placemat exercise

Disadvantages of Immigrationplacemat exercise

2011 HL Q 8 (b)• Discuss the reasons why Ireland is

now experiencing a high level of net outward migration.

2011 HL Q 8 (b)1. Foreign nationals returning home2. Economic recession in Ireland3. Falling wage rates in Ireland 4. Rising level of tax in Ireland5. Job opportunities abroad

Students: Write a brief explanation of each point.

Sources of population information

1. Census of population• Carried out every 5 years.• It is a head count of all the

residence in Ireland.• First one in Ireland in 1841• Most recent one in 2006

2. Registration of births & deaths.• By hospitals, doctors and relatives.

3. Central Statistics Office (CSO)

• Quarterly National House Survey.• Data compiled at air and sea

ports.• The Register of Electors.• The Child Benefit Scheme.• The no. of visas, work-permits &

asylum applications.

Why is the census of population important? 2011 Q 8

(b)

For the Government1.Infrastructural requirements2.Provision of essential services3.Pension planning4.Qualifications of workforce

Students: write a sentence for each.

Why is the census of population important? 2011 Q 8

(b)

For business1.Predict future level of demand2.Population data3.Labour market

Students: write a sentence for each.

The 2011 census of Ireland highlighted that

Complete “scanning exercise” on pdst website

Complete “scanning exercise” on pdst website

SampleWordWall

Demography• Is the statistical study of human

population.• It involves the study of the total

size of the population and its composition.

• Eg. No of males, females, age profiles etc.

Population Pyramid

Population Pyramid• Is a diagram that shows the

distribution by age of the population of a country.

• In Ireland in 2006 the median age is approx 35 years.

• Irelands population is becoming older.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid

Outline the economic implications of the changing structure and size of the Irish

population.2010 & 2005

Use placemat to discussLook up SEC marking schemes

Effects of an aging population

 1.Pressure on provision of state pensions2.Possible increased tax burden3.Increased government expenditure4.Changing pattern of demand

Students discuss & write an explanation for each heading

Robert MalthusTheory of Population

• Nationality: English• Time: 1766-1834• Essay: Principle of Population & as

it affects the Future Improvements of Society.

• Population closely connected to food supply & production.

• Food has arithmetic growth (1,2,3,4)• Population has geometric growth

(2,4,8)• Population would double every 25

years if left unchecked.

• Famine disease and disasters would result.

• This would keep population within limits of food supply.

• Forecast severe decline in the SOL in GB by the end of the 19th century.

• This did not happen.• However the population explosion

of the 21st century may prove him right.

Thomas Robert Malthus

Classical EconomistEnglish

(1776-1834)“The Principles of

Population”

Theory of Population & Food

•Population grows geometrically (2,4,8,16,32).•Food grows arithmetically (1,2,3,4,5,6).•If population not kept in check famine & disease would result.•SOL did not fall in 19th C but his ideas were more relevant in the population explosion of the 20th C

Applied the Law of Diminishing

Returns to Land

•Best land taken up first, then next best, then inferior….•At each stage the amount of food is less than before.

Iron Law of Wages

An increase in wage above subsistence level= increase in population= increase in supply of

labour =decrease in wage

World population

7,000,000,000

7 billion

World Population• 1950 2.5 billion• 1988 5 billion• 2004 6.4 billion• 2011• 2050 9 billion is estimate• Africa set to record highest levels of

growth 64% – 158%

YouTube clips

• http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/7-billion (7billion video)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B2xOvKFFz4 (most typical person)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSpUWt_dpAo (why they are doing a series on population)

Causes of world population explosion

1. Change in death rate• People are now living longer.2. Reduced infant mortality• Less babies dying due to advances

in medicine.3. Fertility span lengthenedAdvances in treatments, women

having babies in 40’s.4. High birth rate• In underdeveloped countries.

Economic problems of the world population explosion

1. Scarcity of food.Could lead to price increases or famine.2. A decrease in the average income per head.Will reduce the standard of living.3. High levels of unemployment.Will put financial strain on the government to pay

for welfare and social costs of crime & violence.4. Greater strain on education, health, housing &

social amenitiesAs more people need public utilities but

governments may lack the resources to provide them.

The IMF & the Millenium Development

Goals• Eradicate hunger & poverty.• Achieve universal primary education.• Promote gender equity.• Reduce child mortality.• Improve maternal health,• Combat HIV/AIDS malaria…..• Environmental sustainability.• Improve trade & debt relief.• By 2015

• China’s one child policy???• Contraception ????• Fertility treatment ????• George Orwell 1984 ??????• Euthenasia ??• Pensions ????? • Food ????• Room to live/land wars ?????????

Discussion