PortaCom Risk Analysis

Selling Price per Unit $249 Administrative Cost $400,000 Advertising Cost $600,000

Direct Labor Cost Parts Cost (Uniform Distribution)Lower Upper Smallest Value $80

Random No. Random No. Cost per Unit Largest Value $100 0.0 0.1 $43 0.1 0.3 $44 0.3 0.7 $45 Demand (Normal Distribution)0.7 0.9 $46 Mean 150000.9 1.0 $47 Standard Dev 4500

Simulation Trials

Direct Labor Parts First-YearTrial Cost Per Unit Cost Per Unit Demand Profit

1 44 $90.22 16,181 $857,249 2 44 $85.93 15,755 $875,937 3 43 $92.80 10,557 $195,135 4 46 $86.70 18,454 $1,146,179 5 44 $91.68 15,834 $794,300

496 45 $95.00 9,994 $89,322 497 43 $90.76 17,943 $1,067,696 498 45 $82.22 19,842 $1,416,418 499 45 $83.38 9,981 $203,854 500 46 $84.43 17,173 $1,036,329

Summary StatisticsMean Profit $727,466 Standard Deviation $509,983 Minimum Profit ($749,986)Maximum Profit $2,370,015 Number of Losses 35Probabilitiy of Loss 0.0700