Porter Analysis

P.V. Viswanath

Valuation of the Firm

Before ValuationA key part of Valuation is forecasting the future cashflows of the firm.For that, it’s important to have a good understanding of what the firm is, its strengths, where it is, who its competitors and their strengths.A firm does not operate in a vacuum.Forecasting cashflows is impossible without knowing the environment.

Porter AnalysisPorter’s Five Forces model Analysis is a systematic way of analyzing the industry environment in which the firm finds itself.Following this, it is necessary to do a SWOT-type analysis to evaluate the firm within this environment.

Five Forces model of Porter

Ease of entry of competitorsHow easy or difficult is it for new entrants to start to compete, which barriers do exist?

Threat of substitutesHow easily can the product or service be substituted, especially cheaper?

Bargaining power of buyersHow strong is the position of buyers, can they work together to order large volumes?

Bargaining power of suppliersHow strong is the position of sellers, are there many or only few potential suppliers, is there a monopoly?

Rivalry among the existing playersIs there a strong competition between the existing players, is one player very dominant or all all equal in strength/size?

Government InterventionCan government policies be used to the advantage of the firm?

From http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_porter_five_forces.html

Porter: Five Strategic Forces

www-mime.eng.utoledo.edu/people/faculty/rbennett/engineering_management/Powerpoint%20Slides/ch09.ppt

New Entrants: Barriers to Entry

Economies of Scale To the extent that there are economies of scale, it will be difficult for a new firm to come in and compete with established firms.

Product DifferentiationTo the extent that the firm’s products are distinct and non-copiable, new firms won’t be able to come in and take away customers.

Brand IdentificationTo the extent that there is brand identification, customers will remember the firm’s product and will resist switching.

Switching CostIf it is costly for the customer to switch, new entrants won’t be able to convince them to do so.

New Entrants: Barriers to Entry

Access to Distribution ChannelsIf the firm has preferential or monopolistic access to distribution channels, it is more resistant to competition.

Capital RequirementsIf capital requirements are high, new under-capitalized firms won’t be able to enter the industry.

Access to Latest TechnologyIf technology is important in the industry, new firms are less likely to have access to them, which is good for established firms.

Experience and Learning EffectsIf experience is necessary for a firm to figure out how to operate efficiently, established firms have a distinct advantage.

Barriers to Entry: Examples

Regulatory restrictions (e.g. banking license) brand names (e.g. Xerox, McDonalds – can develop customer loyalty; hard to develop and/or imitate)patents (illegal to exploit without ownership; e.g. new drugs – cf. also RIM)

A small co., NTP, had a patent on crucial technology that RIM used for its Blackberry

unique know-how (e.g. WalMart’s “hot docking” technique of logistics management)Accumulated experience (cf. learning curve)

New Entrants/ Industry Competition:

Government ActionIndustry ProtectionIndustry RegulationConsistency of PoliciesCapital Movement Amongst CountriesCustom DutiesForeign ExchangeForeign OwnershipAssistance Provided to Competitors

Industry Competition:Rivalry Among CompetitorsConcentration and Balance among Competitors

To the extent that there is no single large competitor, the firm is better off

Industry GrowthIf the industry is growing, there’s more room for everybody; less pressure on the firm

Fixed CostThe higher the operating leverage, the more competitors are going to be hungry for revenue – downside risks are greater

Product DifferentiationIf products are differentiated, markets are in a sense, segmented, and there are no competitors

Industry Competition:Rivalry Among CompetitorsIntermittent Overcapacity

The extent to which firms have overcapacity from time to time, leading them to find additional sources of orders to keep resources fully employed.

Switching CostsThe extent to which it’s easy for customers to switch from this firm to other firms’ products will also determine how much other firms will exert themselves to get them to switch

Corporate Strategic StakesIf the strategic stakes are high – for example, if there is only room for a few players, then firms will fight harder

Industry Competition:Barriers to Exit

Asset SpecializationIf assets are specialized, firms will not want to exit – quitting the industry can be costly in terms of lower prices for assets no longer in use.

One-time Cost of ExitFor example, if businesses are required to pay for any environmental costs before they exit or if they have to set aside funds to pay for potential future lawsuits, they are less likely to exit a business

Strategic Interrelationships with Other BusinessesEmotional BarriersGovernment and Social Restrictions

Bargaining Power of Suppliers

Number of Important SuppliersThe fewer the number of important suppliers, the more power they have over the firm, and the greater their ability to extract producer surplus.

Availability of Substitutes for the Suppliers’ Products

This would reduce supplier powerDifferentiation or Switching Costs of Suppliers’ Products

If it’s difficult for the firm to switch to other suppliers, the current suppliers can charge more

Suppliers’ Threat of Forward Integration To the extent that suppliers might potentially themselves become competitors, they are less reliable and need to be looked at strategically

Bargaining Power of Suppliers

Industry Threat of Forward IntegrationTo what extent is it possible that the entire supplier industry might integrate forward?

Suppliers’ Contribution to Quality or Service of the Industry Products

How crucial are suppliers in the maintenance of the quality of industry products? Clearly, this will determine supplier power. Also, if this is an important factor, then the supplier industry might be more important, and might integrate forward.

Total Industry Cost Contributed by SuppliersThis goes to the same issue as above, but from a more quantitative perspective.

Importance of the Industry to Suppliers’ Profits

Bargaining Power of Customers

Number of Important BuyersThe greater the number of important buyers, the less power does the firm have to manipulate prices

Availability of Substitutes for the Industry Products

The impact of this on price elasticity of demand for the industry’s products is obvious.

Buyer’s Switching CostsThis is relevant both in terms of switching to competitors’ products and switching to products manufactured by other industries.

Buyer’s Threat of Backward IntegrationThe buyer might choose to integrate backward and manufacture his input goods, himself. This means that buyers have to be looked at strategically; they also have more power over the prices they are charged.

Bargaining Power of Customers

Industry Threat of Backward Integration The entire buyer industry might integrate backward.

Contribution to Quality or Service of Buyer’s Products

The greater the contribution of the firm’s product to the quality of the product, the greater the power of the firm. On the other hand, this might also impel the buyer to integrate backward.

Total Buyer’s Cost Contributed by the IndustryThis is similar to the previous point, but in a more quantitative fashion.

Buyer’s ProfitabilityThe more profitable buyers are, the more amenable they are to paying more for their input products.

SubstitutesSome of these points have already been addressed in looking at buyers/suppliers. However, it’s useful to consider it again from the product perspective, rather than from the perspective of other economic actors.

Availability of Close SubstitutesUser’s Switching CostsSubstitute Producer’s Profitability and AggressivenessWhere is the substitute product located on the Price/Value dimensions?

Porter Model Applied:Pharmaceutical Industry

1990s

Barriers to Entry – Very AttractiveSteep R&D experience curve effectsLarge economies-of-scale barriers in R&DCritical Mass in R&D and marketing required global scaleSignificant R&D and marketing costsHigh Risk inherent in the drug development processIncreasing threat of new entries from biotechnology companies

Porter Model Applied:Pharmaceutical Industry

1990sBargaining Power of Suppliers

Mostly CommoditiesIndividual Scientists may have some personal leverage

Porter Model Applied:Pharmaceutical Industry

1990s

Bargaining Power of Buyers: Mildly Unattractive

Buying Process is price sensitive – the consumer did not pay and the buyer did not payLarge power of buyers – plan sponsors with an incentive to contain costsMail-order pharmacies obtain large discounts on volume drugsLarge aggregated buyers – hospital suppliers, large distributors, government institutions

Porter Model Applied:Pharmaceutical Industry

1990s

Threat of Substitutes: Mildly Unattractive

Generic drugs weakening branded drugsMore than half the patent life spent on product development and approval processTechnological development is making imitation easier – reverse engineeringConsumer aversion to chemical substances erodes the appeal for pharmaceutical drugs

Porter Model Applied:Pharmaceutical Industry

1990sIntensity of Rivalry: Attractive

Global Competition Concentrated Amongst fifteen large companiesMost companies focus on certain types of disease therapyCompetition amongst incumbents limited by patent protectionCompetition based on price and product differentiationGovernment intervention increases rivalryStrategic alliances establish collaborative agreements among industry playersVery profitable industry, but declining margins

Resource-based Views of the Firm: Tangible Assets

Tangible assets are the easiest to value, and often are the only resources that appear on a firm’s balance sheet. They include real estate, production facilities, and raw materials, among others. Although tangible resources may be essential to a firm’s strategy, due to their standard nature, they rarely are a source of competitive advantage.

Source: David Collis and Cynthia Montgomery

Resource-based Views of the Firm: Intangible Assets

Intangible assets include such things as

company reputations, brand names, cultures, technological knowledge, patents and trademarks, and accumulated learning and experience.

Firm Resources:Organizational CapabilitiesOrganizational capabilities are not factor inputs like tangible and intangible assets they are complex combinations of assets, people, and processes that organizations use to transform inputs into outputs. Includes a set of abilities describing efficiency and effectiveness: low cost structure, “lean” manufacturing, high quality production, fast product development.

Putting things togetherNow that we have looked at the firm’s environment and its assets, we need to look at the firm’s strategy within this environment and how this relates to the other parties identified in the “five forces model.”We must keep in mind, however, that our objective is not to craft new strategy for the firm, but rather to appreciate its current and potential strategy in

forecasting future cashflowsEvaluating investment risks

A useful place to find relevant information is the firm’s 10-K filing, particularly the “Risk Factors section.”