portfolio committee of finance march 2002. international economy
TRANSCRIPT
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PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE OF COMMITTEE OF
FINANCEFINANCE
PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE OF COMMITTEE OF
FINANCEFINANCE
March 2002March 2002
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INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMYECONOMY
INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMYECONOMY
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International oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil priceInternational oil price
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OECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicatorsOECD leading indicators
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World Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPWorld Economic Outlook: Real GDPAnnual percentage change in real GDP
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002
World 4.7 2.4 2.4
Advanced economies 3.9 1.1 0.8
USA 4.1 1.0 0.7
Japan 2.2 -0.4 -1.0
Euro area 3.4 1.5 1.2
United Kingdom 2.9 2.3 1.8
Developing countries 5.8 4.0 4.4
Africa 2.8 3.5 3.5
Asia 6.8 5.6 5.6
Western Hemisphere 4.1 1.0 1.7
Countries in transition 6.3 4.9 3.6
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - December 2001
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World Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesWorld Economic Outlook: Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change in consumer prices
Actual Projections
2000 2001 2002
World 4.6 4.5 3.4
Advanced economies 2.3 2.3 1.3
USA 3.4 2.9 1.6
Japan -0.8 -0.7 -1.0
Euro area 2.4 2.7 1.4
United Kingdom 2.1 2.3 2.4
Developing countries 5.9 6.0 5.3
Africa 13.5 12.8 8.3
Asia 1.9 2.8 3.0
Western Hemisphere 8.1 6.3 5.2
Countries in transition 20.1 16.0 11.0
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - December 2001
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USA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic product
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USA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rate
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USA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer pricesUSA: Consumer prices
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Japan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic product
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Japan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rate
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Japan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer prices
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Euro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic productEuro Area: Real gross domestic product
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Euro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rateEuro Area: Unemployment rate
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Euro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer pricesEuro Area: Consumer prices
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UK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic product
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UK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: Unemployment
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UK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer pricesUK: Consumer prices
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SADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: Inflation
Annual percentage change in consumer prices
1999 2000 2001 Dec 2001 Jan 2002
Africa 11.5 13.6 12.8** * *
Angola 329.0 268.4 168.2 116.0 121.0
Botswana 7.7 8.7 6.6 5.8 5.7
Lesotho 8.6 6.2 6.9 7.0 *
Malawi 44.7 29.6 27.5 22.1 20.2
Mauritius 6.9 4.2 5.4 5.3 6.0
Mozambique 2.1 12.7 9.1 21.9 22.8
Namibia 8.6 9.3 9.3 8.3 8.7
Seychelles 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.0 5.2
South Africa 5.2 5.3 5.7 4.6 5.0
Swaziland 5.9 7.3 7.5 10.8 11.3
Tanzania 7.9 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.7
Zambia 26.8 25.9 21.7 18.7 19.6
Zimbabwe 58.5 55.7 74.5 112.1 116.7
* Not available
** IMF Projections
Source: National central banks and IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2001)
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NATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMYNATIONAL ECONOMY
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Real gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic product
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Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors
Real gross domestic product by the Real gross domestic product by the secondary sectorssecondary sectors
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Real gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditure
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Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds
Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by householdshouseholds
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Real household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable incomeReal household disposable income
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Household debt as percentage of Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomehousehold disposable income
Household debt as percentage of Household debt as percentage of household disposable incomehousehold disposable income
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Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government
Real final consumption expenditure by Real final consumption expenditure by general governmentgeneral government
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Real gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formation
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Change in inventoriesChange in inventoriesChange in inventoriesChange in inventories
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Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product
Gross saving as percentage of gross Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic productdomestic product
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Non-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employment
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Labour market statistics, based on the Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveylabour force survey
Labour market statistics, based on the Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveylabour force survey
Feb Sep Feb2000 2000 2001(000’s) (000’s) (000’s)
a Total employed 11 880 11 712 11 837Among the employed:Employed in the formal sectorSTEE survey (excluding agricultureand certain activities not covered in STEE) 4 754 4 685 4 676Employed in agriculture 2 265 1 632 1 352Employed in the formal sector inactivities not covered in STEE 1 924 2 157 2 002Employed in the informal sector 1 821 1 933 2 665Employed in domestic service 1 001 999 914
b Total unemployed (official definition) 4 333 4 082 4 240c Total economically active = a + b 16 213 15 794 16 077d Total not economically active 10 242 11 100 11 044e Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 26 454 26 894 27 121f Official unemployment rate = b * 100 / c 26,7% 25,8% 26,4%
SEE - Survey of Employment and Earnings in selected industriesSTEE - Survey of Total Employment and Earnings
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Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker
Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per workerworker
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Non-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivity
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Non-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
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Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
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All-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production priceAll-goods production price
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Overall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIXOverall inflation and CPIX
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Balance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current account
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Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*
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Financial accountFinancial accountFinancial accountFinancial account
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Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves
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Gross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reservesGross gold and other foreign reserves
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Imports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reserves
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Net open position in foreign currency*Net open position in foreign currency*Net open position in foreign currency*Net open position in foreign currency*
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Average net daily turnover in the South Average net daily turnover in the South African foreign exchange marketAfrican foreign exchange market
Average net daily turnover in the South Average net daily turnover in the South African foreign exchange marketAfrican foreign exchange market
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Exchange rates of the randExchange rates of the randExchange rates of the randExchange rates of the rand
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Real effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the randReal effective exchange rate of the rand
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M3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supplyM3 money supply
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Domestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extensionDomestic credit extension
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Turnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond marketTurnover in the secondary bond market
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Money-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest rates
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Yield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bonds
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Yield curveYield curveYield curveYield curve
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Turnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share market
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Share prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classes
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Real-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate market
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Revenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national governmentRevenue of national government
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Expenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national governmentExpenditure by national government
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Deficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national governmentDeficit of national government
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Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement
Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement