portugal - igcp, e.p.e. - igcp · 12/7/2017 · maturity contingent on final outstanding amount...

December 7, 2017

PORTUGAL:

THE WAY FORWARD

Portugal has turned the corner from the European crisis, with economicrebalancing and structural reforms underpinning the recovery

Source: EC, IGCP

2

Executive summary

1. Economic revitalization, fuelled by real GDP growth and employment creation

2. External rebalancing, through strong exports performance and external deleveraging

3. Private sector turnaround, resulting from improved profitability and balance sheet strengthening

4. Fiscal stabilization, with sizable fiscal adjustments and primary surplus achieved

5. Resilient public debt structure, enhancing shock-absorptive capacities

Outline

2

6

10

14

18

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

% la

bo

ur

forc

e

% G

DP

Current account balance (LHS)Primary balance (LHS)Primary balance, excl BES/Banif resolutions (LHS)Unemployment rate (RHS)

Boom Slump CrisisBalancedGrowth

EC f

ore

cast

s

http://igcp-portal2/ED/Templates/Logotipos IGCP/Image Library/Apresentacoes/Armi11t.png


Outline

3

1.

1. Economic revitalization

2. External rebalancing

3. Private sector turnaround

4. Fiscal stabilization

5. Resilient public debt structure

1.




Economic revitalization in evidence, underpinned by structural reforms

Source: Eurostat

4

[Real GDP, YoY %]

Growth picked up since the 2nd half of 2016 Unemployment back to pre-crisis level

[% labor force]

Source: Eurostat

1.8%Portugal 2.5%

3.1%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Euro area Italy Portugal Spain

8.9%

Portugal

8.8%

16.8%

11.1%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

Euro Area Portugal Spain Italy




Stronger foundations for GDP growth (1/2)

[GDP YoY % and pp] [Private consumption and Consumer confidence]

Source: Statistics Portugal Source: Statistics Portugal

5

Sustainable domestic and external demand Improved confidence behind private consumption

YoY % Index

2.5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Private consumption Public consumption

GFCF Change in inventories

Exports Imports

GDP

-60

-51

-42

-33

-24

-15

-6

3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Private consumption (YoY %, LHS)

Consumer confidence (index, RHS)




Stronger foundations for GDP growth (2/2)

Robust exports growth … … supported by a shift in investment pattern

[Contributions to YoY real Exports growth, %] [Contributions to YoY real GFCF growth, %]


6

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Exports of services

Exports of mineral products

Exports of goods excluding mineral products

Exports of goods and services

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Others Construction

Transport equipment Other machinery and equipment

Gross fixed capital formation



Labor market supported by growth and reforms

Job creation in more productive sectors

[% of total population] [Contributions to YoY employment growth, %]

7


Both employment and participation rates up


[% of total population]

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1

Services

Mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and construction

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

yoy

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

72.0

72.5

73.0

73.5

74.0

74.5

75.0

Participation Rate (LHS)

Employment rate (RHS)



Structural reforms have been key to sustain a balanced growth environment

8

What has been achieved: Underway:


• Improved efficiency of credit allocation by banks

• Resolution Fund: State loan extended for up to 30y, with maturity contingent on final outstanding amount (after NB sale)

Financial sector

• Social Security reform

• Improved effectiveness: reduction of civil servants (-10% since 2011) and SOEs restructuring

• Simplified tax compliance + reduced fraud and fiscal evasion

• New Budgetary Framework Law

• Privatization program

• Judicial system reform

Public sector

• Reduced firms’ administrative burden (e.g. licensing)

• Lower costs of context (e.g. communications, railways, ports)

• Rental market reform

Product market

• Reduced severance payments and unemployment benefits

• More flexible working arrangements

Labor market

• Program Capitalizar: promote reduction of indebtedness levels and increase capital holdings

• Initiative Indústria 4.0: designed to revitalize most traditional sectors (agroindustry, auto, fashion, retail and tourism)

• Program Semente: new fiscal framework to promote Start Up investment

Corporate sector

• Program Simplex+: improve efficient use of public resourcesand simplify administrative burden

• Spending review focused on: (i) health and education sectors; (ii) procurement; (iii) real estate; and (iv) SOEs

• Automatic income declaration for Personal Income Tax

Public sector

• NPLs: working group preparing measures to facilitate debt restructuring, including fiscal treatment of write-offs

• Improve efficiency of insolvency and debt restructuring frameworks

Financial sector




Converging expectations around accelerating growth

Portugal exceeded expectations in early 2017, which prompted a significant upward revision of growth forecasts

Sources: Statistics Portugal, Ministry of Finance, Banco de Portugal, Public Finance Council, International Monetary Fund, and European Commission

9

October 2017 June 2017

2015 2016 2017P 2018P 2017P 2018P 2017P 2018P 2017P 2018P 2017P 2018P

Real GDP (yoy%) 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.1

(previous forecasts) 1.8 1.9 (2.5) (1.7) (1.7) (1.7) (1.7) (1.5) 1.8 1.6

Private Consumption 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.6

Public Consumption 1.3 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5

GFCF 5.8 1.6 7.7 5.9 8.0 5.3 9.1 5.2 6.9 5.7 8.1 5.3

Exports 6.1 4.1 8.3 5.4 7.1 6.8 7.9 4.0 7.6 5.2 8.0 7.3

Imports 8.5 4.1 8.0 5.2 6.9 6.9 7.6 4.1 7.3 5.1 8.0 7.2

Contributions to GDP growth (pp)

Domestic demand 2.8 1.6 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.0

Net exports -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

External sector (% GDP)

Current account -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.1 - - 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2

of which Goods and Services 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 - - - -

Current and Capital account 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.3 1.3 - - - 1.0 1.1

Unemployment (% labor force) 12.4 11.1 9.2 8.6 9.0 8.2 9.2 8.5 9.7 9.0 9.2 8.3

Prices (yoy%)

GDP deflator 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 - - 1.3 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.4

HICP 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.4

October 2017

Macroeconomic Scenario

Min Fin: 2018 State

Budget Report

INE

Statistics Portugal

International

Monetary Fund

October 2017

Portuguese Public

Financial Council

September 2017

European

Commission

November 2017

Banco de Portugal



Outline

10

2.









Large imbalances have been successfully addressed, paving the way forsustainable growth

11

[% GDP]

From chronic external deficits to sustained surpluses Significant gains in exports market share

Portugal

80

90

100

110

120

130

20

07

Q2

20

08

Q2

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q2

20

11

Q2

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q2

20

14

Q2

20

15

Q2

20

16

Q2

20

17

Q2

Portugal Germany Spain Italy

[Index 1Q2007=100]

Source: Statistics Portugal Source: Eurostat

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

19

96

Q2

19

97

Q2

19

98

Q2

19

99

Q2

20

00

Q2

20

01

Q2

20

02

Q2

20

03

Q2

20

04

Q2

20

05

Q2

20

06

Q2

20

07

Q2

20

08

Q2

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q2

20

11

Q2

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q2

20

14

Q2

20

15

Q2

20

16

Q2

20

17

Q2

Imports of goods and services (rhs)

Exports of goods and services (rhs)

External balance of goods and services



Exports diversification improves resilience to external shocks

Broader sectoral diversification

[Goods exports by sector, %]

Source: Statistics Portugal

12



Geographical diversification sustaining exports growth

[Goods exports by destination, YoY 3mMA %]

4 4

6

7

3 45

65

19

14

20

57

8

12

8

4 3 45

10

12

15

6

8 8

12

9

3 34 4

1011

15

Ch

em

ical

s (i

ncl

. Ph

arm

a.)

Pla

stic

s an

d R

ub

be

r

Bas

e M

eta

ls

Fish

, Fru

its,

Ve

g.,T

ob

aco

an

d W

ine

Min

era

l Pro

du

cts

Ce

me

nt,

Cer

amic

an

d G

lass

Wo

od

an

d C

ork

Foo

twar

e an

d o

ther

pro

du

cts

Pu

lp o

f W

oo

d a

nd

Pap

er

Text

ile P

rod

uct

s

Ve

hic

les

and

par

ts, A

ircr

aft

Elec

. an

d M

ec. M

ach

iner

y

2000 2010 2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Germany Spain France

UK Others Intra-EU US

Africa Others Extra-EU Exports



Sustained productivity gains leading to higher competitiveness

Labor productivity: ongoing improvement ULC: down from a relatively modest competitive position

[2001 = 100] [2001 Q1 = 100; 12m MA]

Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

13


Portugal

90

95

100

105

110

115

Euro area (19 countries) Spain Italy Portugal

Portugal

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Spain Italy Portugal Euro Area




Improving net external debt position

Reversed historical net borrower position … … leading to improvement in NIIP

[Current & capital account, % GDP: 4QMA] [Net International Investment Position, % GDP]

14

-18.2pp


Portugal

1.92.12.6

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Jun

-01

Mar

-02

De

c-0

2

Sep

-03

Jun

-04

Mar

-05

De

c-0

5

Sep

-06

Jun

-07

Mar

-08

De

c-0

8

Sep

-09

Jun

-10

Mar

-11

De

c-1

1

Sep

-12

Jun

-13

Mar

-14

De

c-1

4

Sep

-15

Jun

-16

Mar

-17

Portugal Spain Italy

-86.5

-13.5

-122.1

Portugal

-103.9

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Mar

-01

Mar

-02

Mar

-03

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

Mar

-17

Spain Italy Portugal



Outline

15

1.1. 3.









Private sector turnaround, resulting from improved profitability and balancesheet strengthening

16

[Net lending (+)/ Net borrowing (-) in % of GDP]

Consistent net lending positions…

[Private sector debt/GDP]

… leading to private sector deleveraging

Portugal

215.1%

201.1%

165%

180%

195%

210%

225%

240%

255%

270%

Portugal Euro area

Source: Statistics Portugal Source: ECB

-54.6pp

Lowest since 2005Q1

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Non financialcorporations

Financial corporations Households

2008 2009

2010 2011

2012 2013

2014 2015

2016 2017Q1

2017Q2



Households net financial position improving

Net worth is now above pre-crisis levels … … driven by deleveraging

[EUR billion]

Source: Banco de Portugal Source: ECB

17


[Debt/GDP; Non-consolidated; Nominal values]

-184-160

551 568

-250

-100

50

200

350

500

650

800

Total financial assets Total non-financial assets

Total liabilities Total net worth

84.4%

101.8%

90.6%94.2%

Portugal

102.6%

61.2%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

Germany Spain France

Euro Area Portugal Italy



Strengthening of corporates’ capital structure ...

Strong decline of debt stock

[Debt/GDP; Non-consolidated]

Source: ECB Source: Banco de Portugal

18


Improved solvency position

[Capital ratio = Equity/Assets]

Portugal

112.4%

100.1%

133.6%

79.4%

106.9%

62.0%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

Portugal Spain France

Italy Euro Area Germany

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%



… combined with improved profitability has paved the way for investment

… which bodes well for investment growth

[GVA and GFCF, YoY %]

Source: Banco de Portugal Source: Statistics Portugal

19


NFC profitability levels are being restored …

[NI/Equity and EBITDA/Assets]

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Gross value added (YoY %, LHS)

Gross fixed capital formation (YoY %, RHS)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Return on equity EBITDA/Assets



Banks dealing with legacy assets

NPL ratio is receding… … and overdue credit is declining sharply

[% of gross credit; at end of period] [YoY %]

Source: Banco de Portugal Source: Banco de Portugal

20


Source: Banco de Portugal

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Jul-

17

7.2

%

7.4

%

7.2

%

7.1

%

7.0

%

6.7

%

6.5

%

12

.5%

12

.4%

11

.3%

11

.3%

10

.7%

10

.0%

9.6

%

28

.6%

29

.6%

30

.3%

30

.1%

29

.4%

29

.0%

27

.5%

17.5% 17.9% 17.9% 17.6% 17.2% 16.7%15.5%

2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

NPLs - Housing NPLs - Consumption

NPLs - Non-financial corporations NPLs - Total



21


A three pillar strategy is being followed by the Authorities to deal with NPLs

Legal and judicial reform

NPL managementPrudential supervisory action

Legislative changes tofacilitate the restructuring of

economically viable firms and the expedite insolvency

and liquidationprocedures of non-viable

ones, capable of reimbursing creditors sooner and maximizing the value recovered by banks.

Shall play a key role in this process, within the SSM

context, through the monitoring of granular

information of NPL exposures, submission of NPL reduction plans by

banks, as well as measures to encourage the reduction

and to prevent the emergence of new streams

of NPLs.

Creation of a system-wide platform to coordinate

NPLs management between banks, backed by a

framework for corporate debt restructuring and

injection of capital / debt financing. Additionally,

setting up an AMC favorable environment may facilitate

the sale of NPLs, while attracting private sector

investment and benefiting from the integrated

management of these assets.



Banking sector challenges being addressed

22

• The 2nd stage of CGD’s recapitalization was concluded in Mar-17, with issuance of€0.5 bn of subordinated bonds and State capital injection of €2.5 bn

• The State capital injection may have an impact on the 2017 deficit figures (still to bedetermined), but it has no additional impact on public debt

CGD


• NB redeemed all its State-guaranteed debt between Nov-16 and Feb-17 (€3.5bn)

• NB bought back of senior bonds maturing between 2019 and 2052, ensuring acapital increase of €500mn

• A 75% stake in NB was sold to Lone Star, resulting in an immediate capital injectionof €750 mn (and an additional €250 mn by the end of 2017). The Resolution Fundwill retain 25% of the capital.

Novo Banco

BCP

• Capital increase of €1.33 bn finalized in Feb-2017, which allowed the reimbursementof the remaining €700 mn of CoCos

• Following the capital increase, Fosun share reached 23.5%

BPI• The removal of the voting rights limit opened the door for a successful public offer by

CaixaBank, finalized in Feb-2017, which increased its share to over 84.5%




De-risking of the banks capital structure

23

[Loans to Deposits Ratio, %]

More stable funding structure

[Core tier 1 | Common Equity tier 1, %]

Higher capital levels in a challenging context


13,3 12,3 13,3 12,3

Solvency Ratio

12,69,810,3


150.8

135.1

122.6

111.8

102.1

96.1 95.593.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q2

7.4

8.7

11.5

12.3

11.3

12.4

11.4

13.2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q2

(*) Since Jan-2014 is in effect a new, transitory, regime of own funds adequacy, which takes into account Basel III phase-in arrangements.

14,4



Helping improve credit allocation

Redirection towards tradable sectors … … supporting exports growth

[Loans to NFC, annual rate of change, % ] [Exports % of GDP and Loans to exporting firms % of loans to NFC]


24


Source: Banco de Portugal/Statistics Portugal

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Jul-

17

Real Estate Construction Trade

Manufacturing Total

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

47%

49%

De

c-0

9

Jun

-10

De

c-1

0

Jun

-11

De

c-1

1

Jun

-12

De

c-1

2

Jun

-13

De

c-1

3

Jun

-14

De

c-1

4

Jun

-15

De

c-1

5

Jun

-16

De

c-1

6

Jun

-17

Exports in % of GDP (LHS)

Loans to exporting firms (% of total loans to NFC) (RHS)



Outline

25

1. 4.








EC

projectionsEC

projections


Fiscal discipline has succeeded in stabilizing debt levels, throughout economicand political cycles

26

[% of GDP]

Strong primary surplus …

[EDP gross debt, % of GDP]

… supporting public debt stabilization

Source: European Commission Source: European Commission

2.5 Portugal

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f

Euro area Spain Italy Portugal

126.4Portugal

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f

Euro area Spain Italy Portugal



38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Total revenue Total expenditure Overall balance


Source: Statistics Portugal and Ministry of Finance Source: Statistics Portugal and Ministry of Finance

27

The overall deficit reached 2.0% of GDP in 2016 (the first time below 3% since enteringthe euro area and the lowest since 1974) and is expected to decline to 1.0% in 2018

Structural adjustment

[% GDP][Total revenue, total spending and overall balance; % GDP]

Significant reduction of expenditure

MF

projections

-11.2

-9.0

-7.4

-6.1-5.7

-3.4

-4.8

-2.9

-7.2

-1.7

-4.4

-2.3-2.0 -2.0

-1.4-1.8

-1.0-1.3

Overall balance Structural overall balance

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p 2018p



Fiscal consolidation was achieved through a strong improvement of the primary surplus(reaching a surplus of more than 2.0% of GDP since 2016) and is also supported bydeclining interest costs

General Government Accounts

[% GDP]

Source: Statistics Portugal and Ministry of Finance

28


General Government Account (accrual basis)

(% GDP) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 P 2017 E 2018 P 2018 vs 2017

Total revenue 40.6% 42.6% 42.9% 45.1% 44.6% 43.8% 43.0% 43.4% 43.5% 0.1pp

Current revenue 39.4% 41.5% 41.1% 44.0% 43.6% 43.0% 42.6% 42.7% 42.8% 0.1pp

Current taxes on income and wealth 8.5% 9.5% 9.0% 11.4% 11.0% 10.9% 10.3% 10.2% 9.8% -0.4pp

Taxes on production and imports 13.2% 13.9% 13.9% 13.7% 14.2% 14.5% 14.8% 15.0% 15.1% 0.1pp

Social contributions 11.9% 12.0% 11.4% 12.0% 11.8% 11.6% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0pp

Other revenue 5.8% 6.2% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 0.4pp

Capital revenue 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0pp

Total expenditure 51.8% 50.0% 48.5% 49.9% 51.8% 48.2% 45.0% 44.8% 44.5% -0.3pp

Current expenditure 44.6% 45.6% 45.3% 46.8% 45.6% 43.9% 43.1% 42.5% 41.8% -0.7pp

Social benefits 18.6% 18.9% 19.6% 20.4% 19.7% 19.3% 19.0% 18.7% 18.6% -0.1pp

Compensation of employees 13.7% 12.8% 11.7% 12.5% 11.9% 11.3% 11.3% 11.1% 10.8% -0.4pp

Interest (EDP) 2.9% 4.3% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% -0.4pp

Intermediate consumption 5.9% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0pp

Subsidies 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0pp

Other current expenditure 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 0.1pp

Capital expenditure 7.2% 4.4% 3.3% 3.2% 6.2% 4.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 0.4pp

Gross fixed capital formation 5.3% 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.6pp

Other capital expenditure 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% -0.2pp

Overall balance -11.2% -7.4% -5.7% -4.8% -7.2% -4.4% -2.0% -1.4% -1.0% 0.4pp

Memo items

Primary expenditure 48.9% 45.7% 43.6% 45.1% 46.9% 43.6% 40.8% 40.9% 40.9% 0.1pp

Primary balance -8.2% -3.1% -0.8% 0.0% -2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 0.1pp



115.7118.4 120.4 121.4 120.8 119.1 117.3

10.510.6

10.2 7.4 9.3

7.26.1

126.2129.0

130.6128.8

130.1

126.2123.5

80

90

100

110

120

130

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CentralGov deposits

GenGov debt net of CentralGov deposits

GenGov gross debt

Assumptions for public debt dynamics


Public debt to decline

Public debt downward trend …

[Maastricht debt, % GDP]

29

YEAR 2015 2016 2017 P 2018 P

Real growth rate (yoy%) 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.2

GDP deflator (yoy%) 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.4

Overall balance (%GDP) -4.4 -2.0 -1.4 -1.0

Primary balance (%GDP) 0.2 2.2 2.5 2.5

Interest costs (%GDP) 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6

Implicit interest rate (%GGDebt t-1) 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9

Source: Ministry of Finance

YEAR 2015 2016 2017 P 2018 P

Maastricht debt (% GDP) 128.8 130.1 126.2 123.5

Change (pp GDP) -1.8 1.4 -3.9 -2.8

Primary balance effect -0.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.6

Snowball effect -0.3 0.5 -1.0 -0.8

Interest costs 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6

Nominal GDP -4.9 -3.7 -4.9 -4.4

Other stock-flow adjustments -1.3 3.1 -0.4 0.6

Decomposition of public debt dynamics[pp GDP]

(*) State-guaranteed debt not considered in the Maastricht debt

currently amounts to about 6pp of GDP.

… is supported by strong primary surpluses and decreasing interest costs



Outline

30

1. 5.









A significant improvement in the debt structure is a key source of resilience

31

One of the longest average maturities …

[Years]

Source: IGCP

6.9

8.2 8.28.8

8.3

5.3 5.15.5

6.7 6.5

7.3

4.0

3.0

6.0

9.6

12.1

8.8

7.8

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

Average residual maturity

Average residual maturity excl EU-IMF loan

Average maturity of MLT debt issuance in each year

… with a declining implicit interest rate

[%]

Source: IGCP

4.5

5.8

4.24.4

3.7

2.7 2.82.6

3.5

4.13.9

3.6 3.63.4

3.23.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cost of issuance per year Cost of debt outstanding



Prudent and stable funding plan

State’s borrowing needs and sources 2016-2021

[EUR billion; as of 6 December, 2017]

Source: IGCP and Ministry of Finance

32


* State sub-sector cash deficit in 2016-18. Projection for GG deficit (excl SS) in 2019-21 (Stability Program, Apr 2017).

** Includes refinancing of other public entities (namely SOEs), as well as the redemption of CoCos, the direct capitalization of CGD, and the credit line to the Single Resolution Board.

*** Includes centralization of funds of other public entities in the Single Treasury Account.

**** Excluding cash-collateral.

2016 2017 P 2018 P 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P

State borrowing requirements 22.5 27.2 18.6 14.4 13.1 20.4

Net financing needs 8.3 9.4 11.0 5.4 3.1 1.4 Overall deficit * 6.2 4.5 5.6 1.6 0.5 -1.5 Other net acquisitions of financial assets ** 2.1 4.9 5.4 3.8 2.5 2.8

MLT Redemptions 14.2 17.9 7.6 9.0 10.0 19.0 Tbonds (PGB + MTN) 9.7 7.8 6.7 9.0 10.0 13.7 FRN/OTRV 3.5 IMF (executed) 4.5 9.0 IMF (to be executed) 1.0 0.8 1.8

p.m. IMF (original maturity of outstanding loan) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7

State financing sources 22.5 27.2 18.6 14.4 13.1 20.4

Use of deposits -3.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 -3.5 6.0

Financing in the year 26.1 24.9 17.5 14.1 16.6 14.4Executed 26.1 23.9

Tbonds (PGB + MTN) 17.4 15.1 FRN/OTRV 3.5 3.5 Retail debt (net) 3.5 2.7 Tbills (net) 0.1 0.3 Other flows (net) *** 1.7 2.3

To be executed 0.9 17.5 14.1 16.6 14.4 Tbonds (PGB + MTN) 15.0 Retail debt (net) 0.1 1.8 Tbills (net) Other flows (net) *** 0.9 0.7

State Treasury cash position at year-end **** 10.2 7.8 6.8 6.5 10.0 4.0



21% 51% 100%22%

3%

25%

41% 53%

22%

9%

35%

42%

8%

15%26%

10%

8%

38%

8%

25%

46%

46%

48%45%

7%

17%

19% 8% 2%

24

8

4

12

20

23

2221

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

<4[ [4-6[ [6-9[ [9-13[ >=13

12% 41%45%

48%47%

25%

15%

77%

47%

20%

36%

45%

55%

100%

55%

9%

17%

5% 14%

11%

12%

23%8%

16%17%

24

8

4

12

20

23

2221

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Syndications Auctions Exchanges MTN Issuance OTRV MLT Issuance

Regular issuance of MLT debt through different channels and across the curve

Auctions regaining the main role in the annual funding plan Supporting liquidity in different points of the curve

[MLT debt issuance per method of issuance; EUR billion] [MLT debt issuance per bucket; EUR billion]

Source: IGCP Source: IGCP

33


Jan-Dec2017

Jan-Dec2017



The diversification of investors ensures a stable base of debt holders (1/2)

Progressively regaining traditional investors

Source: IGCP

34

Distribution by Geography Distribution by Investor Type


[Distribution by geography and investor type of 10-year syndications from 2010 to 2017]

20102013

2017

Asia

France

Germany/Austria/Switzerland

Nordics

North America

Other

Other EU

Portugal

Spain

UK

2010

20132017

Asset Managers

Banks

Official Institutions

Hedge Funds

Insurance / Pension Funds

Others



[% of total State debt securities]

Source: IGCP Source: IGCP

35


More diversified public debt composition

[EUR billion and % of total State debt]

Non-domestic holdings in line with EU peers

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

De

c-0

9

Jun

-10

De

c-1

0

Jun

-11

De

c-1

1

Jun

-12

De

c-1

2

Jun

-13

De

c-1

3

Jun

-14

De

c-1

4

Jun

-15

De

c-1

5

Jun

-16

De

c-1

6

Portugal Spain Italy

The diversification of investors ensures a stable base of debt holders (2/2)

69%69%

70% 59%48% 45% 43%

46% 47% 48%

11%

13%

13% 7%9% 9% 7%

7%

6%7%

15%

13%

11%7%

6% 6% 8%

9%

10%11%

21%32%

35%36%

32%

30%25%

118

133

152

175

194204

217226

236242

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Dec2008

Dec2009

Dec2010

Dec2011

Dec2012

Dec2013

Dec2014

Dec2015

Dec2016

Oct2017

PGB Other MLT

Tbills Other ST

Retail EU-IMF

Other non-tradable TOTAL



Since April 2016, ECB purchases of PGBs have been lower than what would beexecuted from applying the capital key

Source: ECB Source: ECB

36

PSPP purchases (cumulative diff vs capital key)ECB PGB purchases under PSPP

[EUR billion][EUR billion]

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

PSPP actual purchases PSPP purchases with capital key difference

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

EUR

bill

ion

France Germany

Italy Portugal

Spain Ireland

Slovenia Slovakia




37

Liability management operations have smoothed the redemption profile

[Redemption calendar MLT debt; Dec-17 + rollover EFSM; EUR billion]

Source: IGCP

Maturity profile spread over a long time span


(*) Exact final maturity date of each EFSM individual loan will be defined when the original loans are rolled over (IGCP

simulation in orange), but it is not expected that Portugal will have to refinance any of its EFSM loans before 2026.

IGCP is actively buying back off-the-run PGBs

76% of the IMF loan has been fully repaid

[PGB buybacks, Jan-Dec 2017]

[Repurchases of IMF loan]

SecurityOutright buyback

(EUR million)Exchange

(EUR million)

OT Oct 2017 361 -

OT Jun 2018 1,091 427

OT Jun 2019 101 1,117

OT Jun 2020 - 1,231

OT Oct 2022 - - 2,508

OT Apr 2027 - -324

TOTAL 1,554 -

Date SDR million EUR million

2015 6,579 8,448

2016 3,560 4,496

2017 7,394 9,012

TOTAL 17,534 21,956

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045

EFSF

EFSM

EFSM (final maturity to be confirmed)

IMF

Other medium- and long-term debt

Source: IGCP



Appendix

38

A. Macroeconomic indicators

B. Structural reforms

C. Fiscal indicators

D. Debt management indicators



Economic structure better adapted for sustainable recovery cycle, as exportsnow weigh 40% of GDP

GDP composition (current prices) GVA composition (current prices)

[% of GDP] [% of GVA]

Source: Statistics Portugal Source: Eurostat

39


27 28 27 3038 40 41 40

65 63 6466

66 66 66 66

24 2924

2116 15 15 15

1819

21 21 19 19 18 18

-33-39 -36 -37 -38 -40 -40 -39

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016

Imports

Generalgovernmentconsumption

Gross fixed capitalformation

Privateconsumption

Exports

5 4 3 2 2

1918

15 14 14

33

33 5

78

76 4

1919

1818 20

78

88

8

1413

15 1717

27 29 31 32 30

1995 2000 2005 2010 2016

Other services

Financial, insurance andreal estate

Transportation and storage;information andcommunication

Wholesale and retail trade,repair of motor vehicles;accommodation and foodserviceConstruction

Energy, water supply andsewerage

Industry

Agriculture, forestry andfishing



Upward trend in soft and hard data economic indicators

Coincident indicators and real GDP Retail sales and Industrial production

[yoy %] [3 month average, YoY%]

Source: Banco de Portugal, Statistics PortugalSource: Statistics Portugal

40


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Activity Coincident Indicator (3m MA)

Private Consumption Coincident Indicator (3m MA)

GDP (yoy %) -15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Industrial Production

Retail Sales



In 2017, investment main objectives are extension of production capacity andreplacement, mainly directed to manufacturing

Investment objectives in 2017 Investment objectives by economic sector in 2017

[Investment distribution by objectives, % of total] [Investment distribution by NACE sections, %]


41

38.2%

36.3%

12.0%13.4%

Extension ofproduction capacity

Replacement To stream line ofproduction

Other investmentobjectives

28.7%

13.8%12.8%

10.6%9.3%

7.6%

5.3%

2.9% 2.7% 2.6%1.8%

1.1% 0.9%




Inflation in Portugal is in line with other European countries, despite someadditional volatility in recent figures

HICP Core HICP

[Year-on-year growth, %] [Year-on-year growth; %]


42


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17

Diff Euro area (19 countries) Portugal

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17

Diff Euro area (19 countries) Portugal



Currently most sectors are contributing positively to HICP inflation in Portugal,in particular restaurants and hotels, and transport and communication

Portugal Euro Area

[Contributions to yoy HICP growth, %]

Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat43


[Contributions to yoy HICP growth, %]

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17

OthersRestaurants and hotels Transport and communicationsHousing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Food, beverages, tobacco and narcoticsHICP

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17

OthersRestaurants and hotelsTransport and communicationsHousing, water, electricity, gas and other fuelsFood, beverages, tobacco and narcoticsHICP



Well diversified exports distribution, with limited sectoral or geographicalconcentration

Portuguese goods exports by major destination and sector

[% total exports by destination and sector; YTD Jul 2017]


44


Others WORLD

Elec. and Mec. Machinery 2.15 1.55 3.57 1.50 0.51 0.28 0.42 0.32 0.77 0.14 4.29 15.5

Vehicles and parts, Aircraft 2.98 2.06 2.07 1.10 0.21 0.14 0.35 0.17 0.06 0.48 1.83 11.4

Textile Products 3.31 1.27 0.87 0.80 0.53 0.37 0.45 0.19 0.09 0.07 1.85 9.8

Plastics and Rubber 2.34 0.93 0.99 0.39 0.29 0.47 0.27 0.23 0.20 0.05 1.58 7.7

Base Metals 2.72 1.27 0.56 0.54 0.36 0.19 0.09 0.15 0.28 0.06 1.65 7.9

Mineral products 1.88 0.28 0.05 0.13 1.20 0.62 0.29 0.28 0.05 0.19 3.47 8.4

Prep. Food, Beverages and

Tobaco1.67 0.82 0.20 0.38 0.22 0.18 0.27 0.15 0.33 0.15 1.31 5.7

Chemicals (incl. Pharma.) 1.13 0.28 0.61 0.41 0.50 0.18 0.17 0.32 0.40 0.02 1.21 5.2

Pulp of Wood and Paper 1.09 0.46 0.44 0.20 0.20 0.33 0.25 0.06 0.10 0.20 1.22 4.6

Footware 0.37 0.85 0.73 0.22 0.14 0.55 0.11 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.78 3.9

Others 5.74 3.00 1.22 1.03 1.06 0.70 0.96 0.45 0.90 0.15 4.63 19.8

TOTAL 25.4 12.8 11.3 6.7 5.2 4.0 3.6 2.4 3.2 1.5 23.8 100



Exports growth based on geographical and sectoral contributors

Major sector and country contributions

[%, YTD Jul 2017]


45


Textile Products 0.06 0.08 -0.01 0.04 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.16 0.45 4

Plastics and Rubber 0.23 0.07 0.03 0.09 0.07 -0.02 0.00 0.09 0.27 0.82 11

Manufactured Products 0.03 0.11 0.04 -0.07 0.03 0.01 -0.01 0.07 0.09 0.31 8

Vegetable Products 0.13 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.45 22

Footware -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.06 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.18 4

Optical / medical / precision

instr.0.01 -0.02 0.03 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.49 30

Animal Products 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.32 0.55 21

Vehicles and parts, Aircraft 0.21 0.30 -0.04 -0.37 0.12 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.72 6

Prep. Food, Beverages and

Tobaco-0.06 0.00 -0.05 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.09 0.21 0.29 5

Base Metals 0.57 0.16 0.11 0.05 0.21 0.02 -0.25 0.13 0.24 1.24 17

Mineral products 0.37 -0.02 0.12 0.01 0.32 -0.03 -0.12 0.01 1.83 2.50 36

Others 0.14 0.32 -0.04 0.40 0.10 0.09 -0.10 0.60 1.64 3.13

TOTAL 1.85 1.05 0.17 0.46 1.04 0.43 -0.47 1.17 5.44

YoY 7 8 2 4 22 34 -47 4811.14

Others WORLD YoY



Services exports are benefiting from a strong performance of the tourism sector

Decomposition of services exports Nights spent in hotel establishments

[Contributions to yoy Services exports growth, %] [yoy %]

Source: Banco de Portugal Source: Statistics Portugal

46

5.8 5.8

-1.3

-7.1

2.6

5.5

0.6

4.8

10.4

6.5

9.6

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Residents Non Residents Total

2.7

19.8

15.7

4.6

-8.5

6.5

12.1

4.0

10.2

5.9

7.5

4.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Transportation Tourism Other Services




Appendix

47








Labor market reforms

48

(1) Unemployment benefit has been extended to certain self employed categories (+80% of wage needs to come from one employer )

Unemployment Benefits

Capped at:

26 months (38 months before)

2.5x IAS (3xIAS before) with 10% reduction after 6 months

Min. contribution period 12 months (15 before)

Extension to self employed (1)

Reduce risk of long term unemployment

Encourage earlier return to labor market

Reduce contribution period that gives access unemployment

insurance

Severance Payment

12 days/year for new contracts;

18 days/year (old contracts first 3 years)

(30/36 days before)

Cap: 12 months

Improve efficiency and eliminate labor market duality

Working time Arrangements

Introduction of individual bank of hours, capped at 150 hours (vs. 200

before);

Collective bank of hours

Vacations up to 22 (vs 25 days )

Increase flexibility in production cycle;

Improve productivity;

Improve production capacity adjustment to peak periods

without increasing personnel costs




Hiring and firing is now easier and less costly

Source: World Economic Forum Source: World Economic Forum

49

1

2

3

4

5

ITA FRA ESP PRT DEU GRC IRL

2015 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

ITA FRA IRL GRC PRT ESP DEU

2015 2008

Hiring and firing practices

[Index scale from 1 to7 (best)]

Redundancy costs[Cost of advance notice requirements, severance payments, and penalties due when terminating a redundant worker, expressed in weekly wages]



Judicial system reforms

50

Effectiveness of labor, civil, commercial and tax courts

Streamline and speed up court proceedings;

Reduce and expedite the resolution of backlog cases;

Improve enforcement procedures.

Restructuring of the court system with the adoption of new court management models (New Judicial Map);

New Code of Civil Procedure;

Creation of specialized courts (new Competition Court and Intellectual Property Court);

Alternative dispute resolution

Create and strengthen alternative dispute resolution means to facilitate out-of-court mechanisms.

New Tax Arbitration Law;

Strengthened Peaces of Justice regime;

Out-of-court debt restructuring framework (SIREVE).




Since 2012, significant improvements were made both in the clearance rate andin the disposition time

Source: DGPJ Source: DGPJ

51

Clearance Rate

[Clearance Rate (%) = Resolved cases/ Incoming cases × 100]

Disposition Time (days)

Disposition Time = Pending cases/Resolved cases × 365]


97%

124%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

849

710

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015




Public Administration reforms

Portugal was one of the first EA countries to translate the “Fiscal Compact” rules to its legal framework

52

New Budgetary Framework Law:

• Fiscal compact rules introduced in 2013 and new Law approved in 2015 (both approved by a qualified majority in Parliament);

• Introduction of a program-based budgeting.

New Commitments’ Control Law:

• Ability of public entities in assuming commitments is constrained to the quarterly available funds;

• Establish strong incentives for suppliers to closely watch infringements.

New Public Finance Council:

• Contribute to bring transparency and accountability on fiscal policy;

• Review government revenue projections and multi-annual fiscal plans.

Restructuring State Owned Enterprises:

• Commercial SOEs reached operational balance in 2012, through downsizing, cuts in operational costs, and investment restrictions;

• Most subsidiaries and shareholdings in non-core activities will be eliminated by 2014;

• New governance model (Ministry of Finance has stronger power) and tighter reporting framework.



The number of civil servants declined by about 9% since Dec-11, putting a lid oncurrent expenditure

Number of civil servants[thousands]

Source: DGAEP

53


164 158 154 149 147 147 148 149 149

13 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10

551 530 510 497502

507 511 509 502

728700

675 656 659 664 670 668 661

Regional and Local Government Social Security Fund Central Government General Government



Social security reforms

54

• Introduction of new rules for the calculation of the pensions, considering the entire career and a

sustainability factor (the “life expectancy coefficient”);

• Further reduction of the benefits in relation to earlier retirement.

2007: new Social Security Framework Law(Social Security Reform 2007 – Law no. 4 -2007)

• Transposition of Social Security reform measures to CGA from 2008 on, with a transitory period until

2015.

2007: Convergence between CGA and GSSS(Law no. 52/2007 of 31 August)

• 2014: Normal retirement age increased from 65 to 66 years old (sustainability factor update);

• Following years: normal age of entitlement to old-age pension indexed to the average life

expectancy (updated in a 2/3 proportion of the change of the average life expectancy observed

between the 2nd and 3rd years preceding the pension entitlement ).

2014: new rules were introduced(Decret-Law no. 167-E/2013 and ministerial directive no. 378-G/2013 of 31 December)




Appendix

55







The overall balance of the GG on a cash basis stood at EUR -1,838 million between Jan-Oct 2017, EUR 2,664 million above the same period in 2016

General Government (GG) balance

[EUR million; yoy change]

56


-397 -151

290

-314 -359 -264

1,1531,901

2,2902,664

-581

625-19

-358

-1,931

-698

-3,075-3,763

-2,034

-569

-1,838

-4,763

1,022

132

-649-1,617

-339

-2,811

-4,916

-3,934

-2,860-4,503

-4,182

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Target

yoy change (RHS) 2017 2016



Jan-Oct 2017 budget execution (on cash basis)

General Government total revenue on cash basis General Government total expenditure on cash basis

[%, pp] [%, pp]

Source: Ministry of Finance

57Execution in Jan-Oct 2017 2017 Budget target


4.2

1.4

1.6

0.2

0.7

0.4

3.9

0.5

0.7

- 0.1

2.0

0.9

Total revenues (yoy, %)

Direct taxes

Indirect taxes

SS contributions

Other current revenue

Capital revenue

Main contributions (p.p.)

0.0

0.0

- 0.9

0.1

0.4

0.3

4.4

0.2

0.7

0.1

1.8

1.7

Total expenditures (yoy, %)

Employees

Current transfers

Interest and other charges

Other current expenditure

Capital expenditures

Main contributions (p.p.)



Appendix

58








Average implicit interest rate anchored in historically low level, given therelatively long average maturity

Average maturity around 8 yearsImplicit interest rate on State direct debt

[State direct debt after swaps; Aug-2017][%; Interest costs in t / Average debt stock at the end of t-1 and t]

Source: IGCP

Source: IGCP

59

EntityAmount

disbursed (EUR bn)

Estimated all in cost

Final average maturity from disbursement date (years)

EFSM 24.1 2.7% 19.5

EFSF 26.0 1.9% 20.8

IMF 26.3 4.2% 5.9

Total EU-IMF 76.5 2.5% 15.3

EU/IMF loans with average cost of around 2.5%[Estimates; Aug-2017]

Outstanding (EUR bn)

Current average residual maturity

(years)

Final average residual maturity

(years)

EU-IMF 61.8 11.3 13.0

Other debt 182.9 6.3 6.3

Total 244.7 7.6 8.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PGB 4,4% 4,6% 4,7% 4,4% 4,0%

Tbills 4,1% 2,4% 1,2% 0,2% 0,0%

Retail debt 3,1% 3,4% 3,5% 3,6% 3,3%

EU/IMF 3,1% 2,8% 3,0% 2,9% 2,8%

Total 3,9% 3,6% 3,6% 3,4% 3,2%



Over-the-counter and platforms average daily turnover improved since 2013

Average daily turnover on PGBs

[EUR million]

Source: IGCP, HRF reports by Primary Dealers

60

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17

Over-the-counter OT Platforms OT OT 12M Moving Average




Web site: www.igcp.ptBloomberg pages: IGCPReuters pages: IGCP01

61

Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained in this presentation have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and ingood faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.

All opinions and estimates contained in this document are published for the assistance of recipients, but is not to be relied upon asauthoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by a recipient and, therefore, does not form the basis of any contract orcommitment whatsoever.

IGCP does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.



portugal - igcp, e.p.e. - igcp · 12/7/2017 · maturity contingent on final outstanding amount...

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