portugal’s prominence and persistence petite, perched on ...in 1755, survived one of most powerful...

Portugal’s Prominence and Persistence –Petite, perched on periphery, had half of world! Persisted though invasions, earthquakes, dictators, decolonization, euro crisis and now prospers on democracy and tourism.

Joe CoffeyHernando, FL

Email: [email protected]: coffeynotes.com

Portuguese speaking –ranks 6th, 220 mil.

Welcome and Introduction

• Topic: Portugal’s Prominence and Persistence: A petite and Europe’s oldest

nation is perched on the periphery and once lorded over half the world. Portugal has

persisted though invasions, earthquakes, coup d'états and Euro Crisis and now

thrives on tourism.

.

1

What’s Portugal’s story?

◼ Centuries of invasions and conquests

◼ Isolated, limited resources – so became seafaring

◼ Earliest, richest, largest and last empire

◼ Despite dictatorship, admitted to NATO & EU

◼ Only Greece in W Europe is poorer

◼ Recovered from euro crisis – bolstered by tourism 2

What’s Portugal’s Story?

◼ Endured centuries of invasions and conquests

◼ Modest size but oldest European nation

◼ Isolated from heart of Europe and limited natural resources – seafaring became strategy

◼ One of first, richest, largest and last colonial empires, now after Greece is poorest

◼ Strategic location for spice trade and WW II

◼ Long under dictatorship and late to democracy

◼ Despite dictatorship, admitted to NATO & EU

◼ Recovered from crash – now bolstered by tourism

2

Prominence: Possessed half the world!

3

Portugal’s Prominence: Possessed half the world!

• A strategic perch at edge of Europe facing the Atlantic

• Early but small nation with great port and seafaring superiority

• First to reach far east by sea and colonize

• Possessed half of the "New World" – thanks to 1494, Treaty of Tordesillas

essentially gave Portugal the eastern half and Spain western half of the

"New Word",

• First global empire, though some say Spain was

3

Geography: Back to Europe, protected by mountains and plains, and face to the sea that shaped its destiny

4

10 mil. Population mostly near sea

Geography: Back to Europe protected by mountains and plains; face to the sea that

shaped its destiny

• Shares Iberia with Spain, but 1/6th Spain’s size

• Sparsely populated east and densely populated west

• Europe’s westernmost - Pyrenees Mountains separate Iberia from heart of continent

and even more distant across vastness of Spain.

• Distance and isolation give sense is separate culturally, socially, economically,

politically, and even psychologically.

• Long fears might be swallowed by Spain

• Long coast propelled its historic exploration and colonization

• Northern: mountainous, rainy with small farms and vineyards where the

nation began and the origin of its national values but has declined through

emigration.

• Central: Includes most of the nation's commerce and industry.

• Southern: Gently rolling hills and plains dominated by estates with large-scale

agriculture and grazing and in contrast to the conservative north an area of

radical political movements and Communist Party

• Extreme South: Dry region of grazing, fishing, and coastal towns, influenced

by Moors and now center for tourism and foreign retirees.

4

5

Prince Henry the Navigator (1394-1460) - Initiator of Age of Discovery

◼ Obsessed by Prester John

◼ Sought trade

◼ Very small ships

◼ Hugging the coast

◼ Sponsored & profited from voyages

◼ Never a navigator

Prince Henry the Navigator (1394- 1460)

◼ Central figure in Portuguese Empire maritime and patron of exploration

◼ Main initiator of Age of Discovery

◼ Obsessed by long-lost legendary African Christian king Prester John and expansion of Portuguese trade

◼ Sponsored exploration of coast of Africa seeking West African gold trade and the legendary Christian kingdom of Prester John, and stopping pirate attacks

◼ Voyages made in very small ships, mostly the caravel, a light and maneuverable vessel using lateen sail

◼ Navigated by hugging the coast, stopping at night to tie up along the shore.

◼ Navigators discovered and the dependable pattern of trade winds blowing largely from the east near the equator and the returning westerlies in the mid-Atlantic

◼ Henry sponsored voyages, collecting a 20% tax on the profit

5

6

Persistence – nearly 1,000 yrs. same borders; 600 yrs. as colonizer

Monument of Discoveries – in Lisbon celebrates Portuguese Age of Exploration

Discoveries▪1419: Madeira ▪1427: Azores▪1444: Cape Verde ▪1484: River Congo▪1487: Cape of Good Hope▪1498: da Gama - India ▪1500: Cabral - Brazil▪1519: Magellan - world▪1542: Japan

Portuguese Persistence

▪ Oldest country in Europe - same borders since 1139

▪ In 1755, survived one of most powerful earthquakes in European history

▪ One of the longest-lived colonial powers, lasting almost six centuries from when Ceuta was captured

in 1415, until Macau (now China) was handed-over in 1999.

▪ Voyage by voyage crept down African coast until reaching the Cape and then Vasco da Gama

reached India

▪ Then Magellan started voyage that completed first circumnavigation of earth in 1522

▪ Was variously controlled y by Moors, Spanish, French. British, and Dutch but repeatedly gained full

independence

▪ Portuguese still official language of 9 countries with over 236 million

▪ Highlights of Portuguese discoveries:

▪ 1419: Madeira Islands

▪ 1427: Azores Islands

▪ 1434: Exploration of the African coast begins

▪ 1444: Cape Verde islands

▪ 1484: River Congo

▪ 1487: Cape of Good Hope

▪ 1498: Vasco da Gama reaches India

▪ 1500: Pedro Álvares Cabral discovers Brazil

▪ 1519: Ferdinand Magellan leads the first voyage around the World

▪ 1542: First Europeans to land in Japan

6

7

Blessing in disguise?:100,000 killed but catalyst for change. Traumatized King Jose I fled & lived in tent; Pombal rebuilt.

The 1755 Lisbon earthquake

• 1 November, Feast of All Saints, in combination with subsequent fires and a

tsunami

• Almost destroyed Lisbon of magnitude near 9.0 – Destroyed also Portomao

• Death toll of 100,000 - one of deadliest ever

• But earthquake provided a catalyst for radical political and social change

• King Jose I so affected left town and lived in tent rest of life

• Chief Minister Marques de Pombal laid out and rebuilt the city

• Not only destroyed homes and businesses, also shook foundations of

established institutions and providing opportunities for change

• New city was laid out on a grid pattern designed as a bourgeois city to

reflect the rationalism and order of the Enlightenment, not aristocratic

palaces

• Debate on reason for earthquake: punishment for sins or just seismic activity

7

Portuguese Inquisition: 3 centuries, 40,000 victims, ended 1821

8

Targeted “conversos” (Jews that converted to Catholicism) & Hindus in colonies; profound influence on society

Portuguese Inquisition: over 3 centuries with 40,000 victims

• Targeted “Conversos” those who had converted from Judaism to

Catholicism, but suspected of secretly practicing Judaism

• Many were Spanish Jews who had fled to Portugal

• Directed at religious matters, but greatly influenced every aspect of life

• Expanded to Portugal's colonial possessions

• In India, Goa Inquisition included converts from Hinduism or Islam

• Hundreds of thousands of Hindus were forced to move out of Goa

• Financial problems of King Sebastian in 1577 led him, in exchange for a

large sum of money, to allow the free departure of New Christians, and to

ban the confiscation of property by the Inquisition for 10 years.

• From 1674 to 1681 Inquisition was suspended

• Portuguese inquisition was terminated in 1821

8

Portuguese Empire (1415-1999)

9

“Lord of the conquest, navigation and commerce of India, Ethiopia, Arabia and Persia’ – Title of King of Portugal

Brazil 1500-1820s

Goa1500-1961

Macao 1500s-1999

Portuguese Empire

• First global empire, one of largest and longest-lived in history

• Lasted 6 centuries, from capture of Ceuta in 1415, to handover of Macau to China in 1999

• Used advanced navigation, cartography and maritime technology to find sea route to lucrative

spice-trade

• In 1488 Bartolomeu Dias rounded the Cape of Good Hope, and in 1498 Vasco da Gama

reached India.

• In 1500, Pedro Álvares Cabral discovered Brazil on the South American coast.

• By 1571 a string of naval outposts connected Lisbon to Nagasaki along the coasts of Africa,

the Middle East, India and South Asia

• First Europeans to dock in China and Japan

• Never before had one culture spread over the whole below

• Portuguese led for a century and more

• King of Portugal took the title “Lord of the conquest, navigation and commerce of India,

Ethiopia, Arabia and Persia”

• Colonies declined after the Dutch, England, and France took several colonies

• Lost Brazil to independence in 1820s

• In 1974 hastily decolonized Africa and returned Macau to China in 1999

• Now only overseas possessions, the Azores and Madeira, are "autonomous regions".

9

How did petite peripheral Portugal become so prominent?

10

Prester John: legendary Emperor of Ethiopia

• Medieval wars built spirit• Sea best option - was

isolated, infertile, and land routes held by others

• Had tradable goods – salt, wine and cork

• Henry the Navigator prodded abroad

• Curiosity• Sought Prester John

Why did Portugal become a great exploring nation? – Stephen Hicks, Ph.D.

• History and geography were key

• Medieval wars of independence against Leon and Castile and campaigns

against the Moors fostered a national spirit

• Bounded by often hostile Spanish and Muslims, forced to look to the sea for

communication with Christendom and also trade

• Export of salt and oil, of wine and cork traded for manufactured goods

• Lands infertile so sea provided necessary food and became expert seamen

• At the fringes of Europe and land trade routes controlled by others

• Didn’t simply acquiesce to an isolated, marginal existence; as many peoples

have done so Henry the Navigator and others pushed over the sea

• Were both curious, had one of oldest universities and religious evangelists

• Prester John - legendary Christian patriarch said to rule over Christian

nation lost amid the Muslims and pagans which Portuguese fanatically

sought

10

11

Da Gama’s voyages: long, treacherous, secretive

▪ Took 7 mos.▪ 1/10 died▪ A hero▪ But:

squabbled, left prematurely & killed 100s of innocents

Da Gama’s voyages: long, treacherous, secretive

◼ Took 7 months

◼ One in ten died on outbound journey

◼ Ships were dark and dank, filthy and over-crowded

◼ Food was old and full of insects

◼ Portuguese wanted kept as secret

◼ De Gama was a Portuguese hero, but he wrangled with and didn’t understand those in India

◼ Left prematurely after his first visit, killed hundreds of innocents on a stranded boat

11

Source: Robert D. Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, Random House, 2010. pages 267-268

12

Year Portugal Spain UK

1600 1,200 65% 109%

1650 1,400 96% 145%

1750 1,600 97% 91%

1850 1,200 50% 43%

1950 2,800 66% 29%

2000 21,500 81% 63%

Portugal's GDP/capita once

near Spain's & higher than UK

Source: Maddison Project 2018 per capita update,

Constant US $2011 at www.ggdc.net/maddison

Highest %

Lowest %

10-fold gain in 400 yrs!

Late to modernize and great out migration

• Portugal’s GDP per capita to was high relative to its neighbors in 1650

• But over the next hundred years it slipped-Portugal was late to industrialize

• By 1950 Portugal’s GDP per capita was only 29% of UK

• In 1960s, Portugal began growth and modernization thanks to liberalization

of the economy

• By 2000, Portugal’s GDP per capita had risen relative to the other four, but it

was still substantially lower

• What also stands out, is a dramatic increase in per capita GDP over this 400

year period in Europe. Most of these countries increased by 18 fold or more.

Portugal’s per capita GDP, climbed from $1200-$21,500 over this 400 year

period, measured in terms of constant US $2011

12

Portugal & Spain Similar Polity: Long dictatorship & Late Democracy

13

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1800

1809

1818

1827

1836

1845

1854

1863

1872

1881

1890

1899

1908

1917

1926

1935

1944

1953

1962

1971

1980

1989

1998

2007

2016

Polity Index of Democracy- 10=autocracy & +10=democracy

Spain Portugal

6=Democracy line

1933-74: Salazar’s Portugal dictatorship

1939-75:Franco’s Spain dictatorship

Portugal & Spain Similar Pattern: Late to Democracy

• Portugal, like Spain, had few years of democracy in early 1900s, but was

under autocratic rule for the rest of the time from the 1800s to mid-1970s

• It had a brief 20-year period of democracy during 1910 to 1926,

• But in 1931, the dictators Salazar took over and Portugal was under a hard

dictatorship until 1974.

• Since 1974, Portugal has been under a full democracy

13

Portugal on Brink of Bankruptcy 2010-14; $92 bil bailout

14

Borrowing costs soared and crippled economy burdened with debt

Rates soared to 14% - double others

2010–14 Portuguese financial crisis

▪ Part of wider downturn of economy that started in 2001.

▪ 2010 to 2014 was hardest and includes bailout and intense austerity policy

▪ Following years of internal economic crisis, Great Recession hit in 2008

▪ Portugal wasn’t able to repay or refinance its government debt

▪ Portugal bail-out programs cumulated to $92 bil. and exited in May 2014,

after growth re-appeared following three years of recession

▪ In 2010 had a 8.6% budget deficit and requested a bailout

▪ Portugal was richer in 2000 than in 2012

▪ Being in eurozone and increasing competition Eastern Europe and China

▪ Was worst recession in almost 40 years

▪ Unemployment soared above 17%, leaving 40% under-25 out of work.

▪ Hundreds of thousands of mainly young, skilled workers, emigrated — a loss

of more than 4% of the working age population between 2008 and 2016.

▪ During the worst of the crisis, Portugal, like Italy, Ireland Greece, and Spain

(PIIGS) were on the brink of bankruptcy and needed bailouts

Source: Financial Times, April 9, 2019 by Peter Wise and Ben Hall

14

Portugal’s boom, bust and recovery

15

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Portugal Economy

Portugal per cap GDP growth Portugal Population Growth

Portugal GDP % Spain

Robust Growth

Euro Crisis

Recovery

GDP fraction of Spain & declining

Population decline

Portugal’s Economic boom, bust and recovery

• Portugal had rapid economic growth in per capita GDP from 1985 to

2000 and hen became growth became unsteady after 2000 and was

negative during the Euro Crisis

• However, has had a good recovery

• Portugal’s population, of about 10 million, growth has slowed and even

declined the past decade due both to lower birth rates and out

migration

• Tourism has boosted GDP – rising from 11.9% GDP in 2000 to 19.1%

GDP in 2018

• Portugal’s economy (GDP) is now less than 20% of Spain’s, it’s long-

time rival, and has been declining relative to Spain’s GDP

• ((Note: All GDP data are in constant 2010 US$ and data were

downloaded from IMF on May 19, 2019))

15

Another Portuguese Miracle? "Turning the page on austerity"

16

Unemployment shrunk and economy grew after 2010-14 economic crisis

Great Recession

Another Portuguese Miracle? "Turning the page on austerity“

(Miracle of the Sun or Miracle of Fátima, event on 13 October 1917, attended by a large crowd

to witness a prophecy made by three shepherd children that the Virgin Mary (referred to as Our

Lady of Fátima), would appear and perform miracles on that date and witnesses testified to

extraordinary solar activity.)

• Negotiated a 2011-2014 austerity programme in return for $87bn bailout

• Made drastic cuts to health, education and welfare spending, along with state

pensions and bank holidays

• Taxes increased, public sector working hours extended, while minimum wage,

salaries, recruitment and career progressions frozen

• Budget deficit fell from 11.2% GDP in 2011 to 4.5% in 2014 to no deficit by 2019

• Economy rebounded since centre-left government reversed post-crisis budget cuts

• Economic turnaround has restored confidence to Portugal and unlike other EU

countries, little right-wing agitation to exit

• Unemployment has halved to 6.7% and budget deficit could be eliminated this year

for the first time in over 40 years

• Good fortune has helped - global recovery, falling oil prices, a tourism boom and

decline in cost of servicing one of Europe’s heaviest debt burdens

Source: Financial Times, April 9, 2019 by Peter Wise and Ben Hall

16

Portugal – A small and low-income area of Western Europe

17

Norway 74,345

Netherlands 56,305

Sweden 53,145

Denmark 51,875

Germany 51,254

UK 44,960

France 43,998

Spain 39,881

Italy 39,143

Portugal 32,504 Greece 29,697

Median 44,806

Ranking of 2019

GDP/capita of Major

Western European

Countries (US $)

Source: The Conference Board Total

Economy Database™ (Adjusted

version), April 2019

17

Portugal, although GDP 2nd

lowest in W Europe has prospered

18

CountryRank of

150

UK 7

Germany 14

US 17

France 20

Japan 23

Portugal 24

Spain 25

Italy 34

Russia 96

Source: Legatum Prosperity Index

Legatum

Prosperity

Ranking, 2018

Portugal’s Prosperity

• Has profound cultural and architectural influence across the globe

• Although income 2nd lowest in W Europe has prospered One of most

peaceful, stable, democratic and prosperous countries

• Ranks 24th Index of Prosperity – just below 23 Japan and ahead of 25 Spain

18

19

• Settled by Phoenicians, Greeks, Romans, & Carthaginians

• Reconquered in 1249 from Arabs

• Once fishing & shipbuilding

• Tourism = 19% Portugal’s GDP

Today: Impressive prehistoric Portimão – from fishing & shipbuilding to tourism

Portimão

• Prehistoric port town of 50,000 in southern Portugal

• Settled during prehistoric times – by Phoenicians, Greeks and Carthaginians

with vestiges of the Roman occupation remain

• In the 5th century, inhabited by the Visigoths until the invasion of the Moors

• Reconquered in 1249 from the Arabs

• Historically a fishing and shipbuilding centre,

• Now tourism – 19% Portugal’s GDP

19

Summary: Portugal’s Persistence and Prominence

◼ In 1500’s most powerful & richest

◼ Nibbled away by Dutch, Spain, France, and UK

◼ Fell to one of poorest with longest dictatorship

◼ Hard hit by recession 2010, now robust recovery

◼ Still low income but prospering 20

Summary: Portugal’s Persistence and Prominence

• 500 years ago Portugal was one of the most powerful and richest nations in

the world – having been granted by the Pope half of the un-colonized world

• But Spain, UK, France, and the Netherlands kept nibbling away at the

Portuguese empire as well as Portugal itself

• Experienced both big seismic, geopolitical, and economic earthquakes

• Despite leading age of discovery, lagged in industrialization and

modernization

• Generally been one of the poorest country in Western Europe

• Along with Spain, Portugal has had one of longest autocratic periods and

shortest democratic periods – becoming democratic only in the mid-1970s

• Bad news: like most of W Europe, suffered a severe economic hardships

during the euro crisis and needed a bailout.

• Good news: has recovered economically and now growing robustly, thanks

to increase in tourists and retirees

• Like these happy winegrowers pictured, has something to smile about

• Thank you for your attendance, my next lecture will be about Spain

20

Ten dates that shaped Portugal◼ 1128: “ Portucale ” separates from Castile

◼ 1179: Afonso Henriques (Afonso I) recognized as first king

◼ 1497: Vasco da Gama sails Portugal into a century of wealth

◼ 1581: King Philip II of Spain inherits the crown of Portugal after Sebastian dies without an heir

◼ 1640: Spanish are ousted; Portuguese gain independence

◼ 1755: Massive earthquake destroys Lisbon

◼ 1822: Portugal loses Brazil as a colony

◼ 1910: Monarchy deposed, democracy fails, and repressive military regimes rule

◼ 1974: Left-wing military coup brings democracy

◼ 1986: Joins European Community (forerunner of EU), boosting the economy

21Source: Rick Steves, Portugal, 2019

Appendix of Supplemental Data

21

22

I. Rise of Portugal (1179-1640)

◼ 1179: 1st W European state

◼ 1415: 1st colony - city of Ceuta in northern Africa.

◼ 1434: Prince Henry sponsors explorations of African coast

◼ 1488: Bartolomeu Dias, 1st European to Cape of Good Hope

◼ 1494: Treaty of Tordesillas, Spain & Portugal divide world

◼ 1498: da Gama reaches India by navigation around Africa

◼ 1500: Pedro Álvares Cabral discovers Brazil

◼ 1513: 1st European trading ship to China

◼ 1519: Magellan 1st voyage around world

◼ 1536-1821: Inquisition victimized 40,000

◼ 1542: 1st Europeans to land in Japan

◼ 1581: King Philip II of Spain inherits crown of Portugal

◼ 1640: Spanish ousted; gains independence


I. Rise of Portuguese Empire

◼ 1179: King Alphonso I, Portugal 1st W European state

◼ 1290: University of Coimbra, world's existing 7th oldest

◼ 1415: First colony - city of Ceuta in northern Africa.

◼ 1434: Prince Henry sponsors explorations of African coast

◼ 1488: Bartolomeu Dias, first European to Cape of Good Hope

◼ 1494: Treaty of Tordesillas, Spain & Portugal divide world

◼ 1498: da Gama reaches India by navigation around Africa

◼ 1500: Pedro Álvares Cabral discovers Brazil

◼ 1513: First European trading ship to China

◼ 1519: Ferdinand Magellan leads the first voyage around world

◼ 1536: Inquisition of 1536-1821, victimized 40,000

◼ 1542: First Europeans to land in Japan

◼ 1581: King Philip II of Spain inherits crown of Portugal

◼ 1640: Spanish ousted; Portuguese gain independence

22

23

II. Portugal’s Geopolitical struggle (1650-1949)

◼ 1650: Key to control of Atlantic, savored by English, Dutch and French

◼ 1755: Massive earthquake destroys Lisbon

◼ 1762: Spanish invasion ended with help of Great Britain

◼ 1807: Napoleon invades; Royal Family flees to Brazil

◼ 1822: Loses Brazil as a colony

◼ 1910: King Manuel II abdicates; 1st Republic proclaimed

◼ 1926: Military coup, General Carmona ends 1st Republic

◼ 1933-74: Salazar’s right-wing dictatorship

◼ 1939: Neutral in WW II, but UK can use Azores bases

◼ 1949: Despite being dictatorship, allowed into NATO


II. The Geopolitical struggle

1650: As center of war to control Atlantic, target for English, Dutch and French1705: Brazil’s 600,000 oz. annual gold, one of world greatest1755: Massive earthquake destroys Lisbon1762: Spanish invasion ended with help of Great Britain1807: Napoleon invades and Royal Family flees to Brazil1822: Portugal loses Brazil as a colony1910: King Manuel II abdicates; First Republic proclaimed1926: Military coup, General Carmona ends First Republic1933: Salazar and right-wing dictatorship rules until 19741939: Neutral in WW II, but UK can use Azores air bases1949: Despite being dictatorship, allowed into NATO

23

24

III. Portugal’s Decolonization, EU Unification & Crisis (1961-2015)

◼ 1961: India takes Goa, long after 1947 independence from UK

◼ 1974: Left-wing Carnation Revolution brings democracy

◼ 1975: Independence granted African colonies

◼ 1986: Becomes a member of EEC, today's EU

◼ 1999: Adopts EURO, returns last overseas colony Macao to China

◼ 2011: $92 bil. bailout during Eurozone Crisis

◼ 2015: Robust economic recovery begins


III. Decolonization, European Unification & Crisis

◼ 1961: Indian army conquers Portuguese Goa, long after 1947 independence from UK

◼ 1974: Left-wing Carnation Revolution brings democracy

◼ 1975: Independence granted all Portuguese African colonies

◼ 1986: Becomes a member of European Economic Community, today's EU

◼ 1999: Adopts EURO, returns last overseas colony Macao to

China

◼ 2011: $92 bil. Bailout during Eurozone Crisis

◼ 2015: Robust economic recovery begins

24

GDP per capita increased but at different rates

25

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

1500 1600 1700 1850 1870 1913 1929 1937 1960

GDP/Capita 1500-1960

Italy Spain Portugal UK Average

US $2011

Source:Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Bolt, Jutta, Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan Luiten van Zanden (2018),

Italy top

UK rises

Portugal lags


25

GDP per capita 1500 to 1960

26

Country 1500 1600 1700 1850 1870 1913 1929 1937 1960

Italy 3,125 2,778 3,009 3,018 3,143 4,698 5,663 5,651 10,922

Spain 1,477 1,558 1,422 2,017 2,140 3,629 4,938 3,139 5,960

Portugal 1,329 1,615 1,554 1,597 1,687 2,164 2,786 3,041 5,115

UK 1,697 1,691 2,365 4,248 5,716 8,052 8,601 9,718 13,512

World Avg 1,894 1,824 1,964 2,123 2,417 4,003 4,977 5,102 8,058

GDP (PPP) per capita in 2011 International Dollars

Source:Maddison Project Database, version 2018. Bolt, Jutta, Robert Inklaar, Herman de Jong and Jan

Luiten van Zanden (2018),


26

27

Country 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2005 2000

Croatia 24.9 24.7 24 23.4 22.7 22.1 20.7 21.7 20.3 24.5 14.7

Greece 20.6 20 19.1 19.2 18.2 17.4 15.7 16 15.6 16.5 16

Portugal 19.1 17.9 17.7 17.1 17.2 16.0 15.4 14.7 13.8 11.7 11.9

Spain 14.6 14.5 14.2 14 14.1 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.3 15.0 14.7

Italy 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.1 10.5 9.9 11.1 13.3

Egypt 11.9 10.9 7.4 8.7 9.1 9.2 11.9 12.8 16.7 19.1 14.1

UK 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.1 9.9 10.4 10.5 10.0 9.5 11.3 14.4

France 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.8 9.1 9.6 11.1

Germany 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.6 10.1 11.1

US 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.4 8.1 8.9

Travel and tourism (% of GDP)

https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-

of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP


27

Ranking GDP/Capita growth

28

Economies of Major Western European Countries

2019

Increase

1950-

2019

2019

Increase

1950-

2019

2019

Increase

1950-

2019

Spain 1,884 1430% 47.2 168% 39,881 849%

Portugal 331 917% 10.2 120% 32,504 761%

Germany 4,334 738% 86.4 124% 51,254 596%

Italy 2,369 686% 60.5 129% 39,143 534%

France 2,970 748% 67.5 159% 43,998 471%

UK 3,025 503% 67.3 134% 44,960 374%

Total &

Median15,428 873% 344 154% 44,806 534%

Country

GDP (Bil $) Population (mil) GDP/Capita ($)

Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database™ (Adjusted version), April 2019


28

29

Total Boom Post Boom Post USSR Recession Recovery

1950-2019 1950-74 1974-1990 1990-2009 2009-2013 2013-2019

% Change % chg/yr % chg/yr % chg/yr % chg/yr % chg/yr

PORTUGAL

GDP 917% 5.5% 3.3% 1.9% -1.3% 1.9%

Population 120% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% -0.3% -0.4%

Per Capita GDP 761% 5.2% 2.7% 1.6% -1.0% 2.2%

Hours Worked/Worker -22% -0.5% -0.4% -0.2% -0.4% 0.2%

Output per Hour Worked 711% 5.4% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% -0.2%


Indicators of Post WW II Economic Progress by Major Eras 1950-2019

Indicator


29

30

Total Boom Post Boom Post USSR Recession Recovery

1950-2019 1950-74 1974-1990 1990-2009 2009-2013 2013-2019

% Change % chg/yr % chg/yr % chg/yr % chg/yr % chg/yr

RUSSIA na na 0.9% 0.3% 3.7% 0.6%

SPAIN 849% 5.6% 2.5% 1.8% -1.5% 2.6%

PORTUGAL 761% 5.2% 2.7% 1.6% -1.0% 2.2%

GERMANY 596% 4.8% 1.8% 1.1% 2.2% 1.2%

ITALY 534% 4.9% 2.5% 0.7% -1.1% 0.7%

FRANCE 471% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0%

US 422% 2.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7%

UK 374% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%


GDP per Capita Progress by Major Eras 1950-2019

Country


30

Portuguese Speaking World – ranks 6th most native speakers – 2.9% of world, most are in Brazil

31


31

Portugal’s debt & unemployment soared during Euro Crisis

320%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Portugal's Economic Decline and Recovery in 2000s

Unemployment rate GDP Growth

Government net debt Portugal GDP/Capita % EU


32

2010 Debt Crisis

◼ By spring 2010 the debt crisis reached dangerous levels

◼ Spain had to bail out banks that had suffered big losses from a housing bubble.

◼ Portugal’s mismanagement of public funds over many years and bloated public sector left the country with soaring public debts once its economy slumped in 2009.

◼ With doubts about solvency, interest rates rose, and government cut public spending

◼ The cuts hurt standards of living

33


Source: Kershaw, Ian. The Global Age, (p. 492). Penguin, Kindle Edition, 2019

33

Triumph of Democracy in Spain & Portugal

◼ Emerging new democracies in Portugal and Spain completed the post-war triumph of democracy in Western Europe.

◼ Authoritarianism in Portugal and Spain, had been built over decades and deep roots

◼ Their fates were entwined with personalities and ideologies of their long-standing rulers, Salazar in Portugal and Franco in Spain

◼ Their physical decline then death ushered in the disintegration of the regimes.

◼ Portugal’s problems were closely linked to the liberation struggles in a colonial empire.

◼ Portugal’s empire collapse led to prolonged turbulence than in the other two countries

◼ Only Spain restored the monarchy, which itself – somewhat unpredictably –became the most vital stabilizing factor in the consolidation of democracy.

34Source: Kershaw, Ian. The Global Age, (p. 305). Penguin, Kindle Edition, 2019


34

35

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/269684/national-debt-in-eu-countries-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

Debt as % GDP in EU - 2018

Debts of Greece, Italy Portugal & Spain are biggest concern


35

Portugal & Eurozone Debt/GDP during Crisis

36

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis


36

portugal’s prominence and persistence petite, perched on ...in 1755, survived one of most powerful...

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