positioning your neighborhood for economic development: advanced training
TRANSCRIPT
Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus
Positioning Your Neighborhood for Economic DevelopmentChoice Neighborhoods Grantee Conference
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
March 17, 2016
Roberta GarberHannah JonesLyneir RichardsonRobert Weissbourd
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
It’s Not Our Parents’ Economy: Neighborhood and Regional
Development in the 21st CenturyChoice Neighborhoods Grantee Conference
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Robert WeissbourdMarch 17, 2016
THE FOLLOWING PRESENTATION HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR
MATURE AUDIENCES
RP THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN RATED RP FOR CONTENT. AUDIENCE DISCRETION ADVISED.
RADICAL + PRESUMPTUOUS
CONTENT MAY BE UNCONVENTIONAL,EXPLORATORY, ILLUSTRATIVE AND PROVOCATIVE
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Poverty and Economic Growth“… poverty has no causes. Only prosperity has causes. Analogically, heat is a result of active processes; it has causes. But cold is not the result of any processes; it is only the absence of heat. Just so, the great cold of poverty and economic stagnation is merely the absence of economic development. It can be overcome only if the relevant economic processes are in motion.”
-- Jane Jacobs
Photo from Shelf-Basin Interactions
4
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Therefore, to increase wealth in poor communities, expand market activity to the assets of those communities
Market-Based Development
The economic mechanism for investing in assets is the market
Wealth is created by investing in assets
To address poverty, create wealth
5
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Agenda
Changing Dynamics of Cities
Changing Dynamics of Neighborhoods
Neighborhood Business Planning
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0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
$s lbs
% C
hang
e
GDP Growth, 1950-2000 Human Capital Information technologiesProduct innovation; flexible
customization Firm, consumer and knowledge
networks Increasing returns; divergence
The Global Economy is Undergoing a Fundamental Transformation, Driven by Knowledge Assets
7Source: “Greenspan Weighs Evidence and Finds a Lighter Economy,” Wall Street Journal
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1920s 1990s0
20406080
Years Spent on the S&P Index
As a Result, the Economy is More Dynamic
8Sources: Newsweek, Manyika, Lund and Auguste, “From the Ashes,” 8.16.2010; Brookings Institution
15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33%0%
20%40%60%80%
100%
Churn and GRP Growth by MSA
Firm Starts and Closures (Churn) as % of All Firms
GRP
Gro
wth
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…and Centered in Metropolitan Areas
9
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…and Centered in Metropolitan Areas
Population
83.7%
Employm
ent
89.8%
Personal Income
96.3%Knowledge Industries (G
DP)
87%
Metros Share of U.S. Total
Source: Brookings Institution; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
Gross Product
90%
Patents
95.5%
9
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What Makes Metropolitan Regions more Productive in the Next Economy?
Economic Geograph
y Institutional
Economics
New Growth Theory
10
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Metros Concentrate People and Firms to Achieve Efficiencies
Economic Geograph
y
Institutional EconomicsNew
Growth Theory
Act Comprehensively – The Whole is Greater than the Sum of the Parts.
Develop Institutional Capacity and Intentionality.
Customize and Build on Distinctive Assets.
10
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance
11
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance
11
Current Concentrations: Assets, Legacies and Bets
Cluster Dynamics and Drivers
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance
11
High levels of human capital and rich job pools
Job matching and worker mobility
Inclusiveness and opportunity
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance
11
Commercialization of R&D
Cluster- and firm-based innovation
Entrepreneurship
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
Create EffectivePublic & Civic
Culture & Institutions
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance
11
Government fragmentation
Tax-value proposition
Cross-sector governance
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
Increase Spatial
Efficiency
Create EffectivePublic & Civic
Culture & Institutions
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance
11
Compact, well-connected urban form
Segregation and isolation
Jobs-housing mismatch
Next generation infrastructure
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Implications for Urban Economic Development
12
Success = Dynamic Economic Growth
Success = Short Term
Jobs
Subsidize companies
Reduce taxes
Train the unemployed
Municipal competition
Government-led
Traditional economic development
New economic growth planning
Leverage regional strengths
Add value
Connect training to jobs
Regional collaboration
Public-private partnerships
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The Inclusive Growth Paradox
13
Drivers of growth exacerbate inequity
0.020.040.0
Changes in Share of Total Household Income, 1979 - 2007
19792007
Shar
e of
Tot
al
Hou
seho
ld In
com
e
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The Inclusive Growth Paradox
13
-.20
.2.4
.6W
age
Gro
wth
(199
0-20
00)
0 .1 .2 .3 .4Poverty Rate (1990)
Inequity is bad for growth
Drivers of growth exacerbate inequity
0.020.040.0
Changes in Share of Total Household Income, 1979 - 2007
19792007
Shar
e of
Tot
al
Hou
seho
ld In
com
e
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Congressional Budget Office; RW Ventures Analysis
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
The Inclusive Growth Paradox
13
-.20
.2.4
.6W
age
Gro
wth
(199
0-20
00)
0 .1 .2 .3 .4Poverty Rate (1990)
Inequity is bad for growth
Drivers of growth exacerbate inequity
0.020.040.0
Changes in Share of Total Household Income, 1979 - 2007
19792007
Shar
e of
Tot
al
Hou
seho
ld In
com
e
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Congressional Budget Office; RW Ventures Analysis
INCLUSION is a
BUSINESS IMPERATIVE
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Principles for Practicing Inclusive Growth
14
“It’s the Economy” Focus on opportunities (specific assets, markets and
growth drivers) to leverage (not supplant) markets to create value.
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Principles for Practicing Inclusive Growth
14
“It’s the Economy” Focus on opportunities (specific assets, markets and
growth drivers) to leverage (not supplant) markets to create value.
“Skate to Where the Puck Is Going to Be” It’s the next economy. Stop programming that moves the
disadvantaged into old economy jobs and businesses!
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Principles for Practicing Inclusive Growth
14
“It’s the Economy” Focus on opportunities (specific assets, markets and
growth drivers) to leverage (not supplant) markets to create value.
“Skate to Where the Puck Is Going to Be” It’s the next economy. Stop programming that moves the
disadvantaged into old economy jobs and businesses!New Civics Embrace new cross-sector partnerships, networks and
institutions to inform and implement work.
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Principles for Practicing Inclusive Growth
14
“It’s the Economy” Focus on opportunities (specific assets, markets and
growth drivers) to leverage (not supplant) markets to create value.
“Skate to Where the Puck Is Going to Be” It’s the next economy. Stop programming that moves the
disadvantaged into old economy jobs and businesses!New Civics Embrace new cross-sector partnerships, networks and
institutions to inform and implement work.Act in Context Activities and geographies succeed or fail in context of
each other and their interactions in place. Strategies and initiatives need to be aligned, integrated and mutually reinforcing.
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Principles for Practicing Inclusive Growth
14
“It’s the Economy” Focus on opportunities (specific assets, markets and
growth drivers) to leverage (not supplant) markets to create value.
“Skate to Where the Puck Is Going to Be” It’s the next economy. Stop programming that moves the
disadvantaged into old economy jobs and businesses!New Civics Embrace new cross-sector partnerships, networks and
institutions to inform and implement work.Act in Context Activities and geographies succeed or fail in context of
each other and their interactions in place. Strategies and initiatives need to be aligned, integrated and mutually reinforcing.
Inclusion is Not a Separate Economic Practice It’s an intentional, integral design principle for every
growth activity.
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice
15
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice
15
Inclusive Clusters: Chicago FOOD
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice
15
Inclusive Clusters: Chicago FOOD
Targeted inclusive training for emerging industries: YearUp
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice
15
Inclusive Clusters: Chicago FOOD
Doer-Maker Space: Blue1647
Targeted inclusive training for emerging industries: YearUp
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
Create EffectivePublic & Civic
Culture & Institutions
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice
15
Inclusive Clusters: Chicago FOOD
Doer-Maker Space: Blue1647
Neighborhood/Sub-Regional Business Planning: Greater Chatham Initiative
Targeted inclusive training for emerging industries: YearUp
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
Increase Spatial
Efficiency
Create EffectivePublic & Civic
Culture & Institutions
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice
15
Inclusive Clusters: Chicago FOOD
Doer-Maker Space: Blue1647
Neighborhood/Sub-Regional Business Planning: Greater Chatham Initiative
Industrial land reuse:Casey-Atlanta
Targeted inclusive training for emerging industries: YearUp
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Agenda
Changing Dynamics of Cities
Changing Dynamics of Neighborhoods
Neighborhood Business Planning
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Inclusive Regional Growth
Comprehensive Neighborhood Planning
ECONOMICGROWTH
Productivity,Outputs
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENTHealthyCommunities
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
WealthCreation
Wealth creation for residents
Neighborhoods as healthy, vital places to live
17
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Two Frames
Frame 2: Neighborhoods of Choice
Neighborhoods as collection of amenities – housing, retail, public goods, etc. – interacting in place
Function = attract and retain particular segments of residents
Emphasis on quality of life
18
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Two Frames
Frame 2: Neighborhoods of Choice Frame 1: Neighborhoods of Opportunity
Neighborhoods as collection of amenities – housing, retail, public goods, etc. – interacting in place
Function = attract and retain particular segments of residents
Emphasis on quality of life
Neighborhoods as collection of assets – labor, land, businesses, etc. - nested in larger markets
Function = develop and deploy assets into larger systems
Emphasis on economics
18
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Frame 2: Neighborhoods of Choice
ECONOMICGROWTH
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
19
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Frame 2: Neighborhoods of Choice
MARKETS
AMENITIES ASSETS
20
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Neighborhoods are Complex
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Neighborhoods are Complex
AMENITIESPhysical environment, Entertainment venues,
Public transit
PEOPLEEthnicity, Age, Family Structure
SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
Civic engagement, Social networks, Community
organizations
GOVERNANCEInfrastructure, Policing,
Social Services
REAL ESTATECommercial and
Residential, Type and Quality of Housing
BUSINESSNumber, size and type
of businesses
22
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Neighborhoods are Dynamic
AMENITIESEnvironmental
deterioration; development of parks, institutional
anchors
PEOPLEChange or lose jobs;
have kids; move
SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTChange in crime,
participation,social behaviors
GOVERNANCEChanging infrastructure, services, enforcement
demands
REAL ESTATEDeterioration and renewal
BUSINESSEntry, Investment, Failure
A Web of Interdependent Activities: “Organized Complexity” (Jacobs)
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Neighborhoods are Dynamic
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Frame 1: Neighborhoods of Opportunity
MARKETS
AMENITIES ASSETS
25
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ECONOMICSYSTEMS
POLITICALSYSTEMSSOCIAL
SYSTEMS
Labor Markets
Business Markets
Housing Markets
Capital Markets
Consumer Markets
GovernmentServicesInfrastructure
Neighborhoods arise from the interaction of regional economic,social and political systems with physical place.
PublicGoodsGovernance
Social CapitalCivic Networks
Neighborhoods are Nested in Larger Systems Which Drive the Flows of People and Capital
26
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Neighborhoods Need Regions
Poverty Productivity
Connectedness
Isolation
27
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Neighborhoods Need RegionsEmployment networksEntrepreneurial opportunitiesBusiness, real estate investment
Expanded products and services
Productive, healthycommunities
Undervalued, underutilized assets
Poverty Productivity
Connectedness
Isolation
27
Goal: Neighborhoods that Build Capacity and Opportunity (Amartya Sen)
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Regions Need Neighborhoods
-.20
.2.4
.6W
age
Gro
wth
(199
0-20
00)
0 .1 .2 .3 .4Poverty Rate (1990)
225%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%
1990 1995 2000 2004
Repe
at S
ales
Inde
x
Year
Variation of appreciation across NeighborhoodsKing County 1990-2004
28
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Connecting the “Frames”
Retail Demand
Retail Supply
Quality of Life
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Mobility –who moves in/out
29
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Connecting the “Frames”
Retail Demand
Retail Supply
Quality of Life
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Wealth and Connectedness of Residents
Wealth and Connectedness of Businesses
Mobility –who moves in/out
29
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Connecting the “Frames”
Retail Demand
Retail Supply
Quality of Life
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Wealth and Connectedness of Residents
Human Capital Stock and Deployment
Urban Growth Form
Clusters
Wealth and Connectedness of Businesses
Innovation and Entrepreneurshi
p
Inst
itutio
nal E
nviro
nmen
t (Go
vern
ance
)
Mobility –who moves in/out
29
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Unified Theory of Change –Frame 1: Choice Frame 2:Opportunity Neighborhoods do not have
economies: they have assets Frames are closely interrelated
– Success in frame 1 affects frame 2 –attractiveness and types of changes
– Frame 2 iterates with and supports success in frame 1
Neighborhoods are whole greater than sum of parts:– Differentiated amenities to serve/house
varied residents/assets – range of neighborhood types and trajectories
– Where economic and non-economicfactors most iterate
– Ultimately, we care about morethan economics
30
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Next-Economy Dynamics Create New Urban Development OpportunitiesIndustrial Economy
Knowledge Economy
Large factoriesSmaller space, less physical capital
Sectoral specializations
Functional specializations
Sprawl Densification
Continuous rise in VMT
Decrease and stabilization of VMT
Highest property values = single family houses
Highest property values = condos, apartments
Majority of households married with children
Majority of households single, no children
0.0%4.0%8.0%
12.0%16.0%
Population Growth in Large Metros, 2000-
2010 Downtown PopulationMetro Population
31
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy
32
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Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy
Employment and entrepreneurship opportunities
Commercial and industrial development
32
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy
Targeted training
Access/ mobility/ networks
32
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy
Targeted entrepreneurship
Connecting to ecosystem
32
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
Create EffectivePublic & Civic
Culture & Institutions
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy
Efficiency Engagemen
t Networks
32
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Leverage Points
for Sustainable and Inclusive
Prosperity
DeployHuman CapitalAligned with
Job Pools
Increase Spatial
Efficiency
Create EffectivePublic & Civic
Culture & Institutions
EnhanceRegional
Concentrations/Clusters
DevelopInnovation-
EnablingInfrastructure
Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy
New, mixed uses Development
opportunities Bring jobs back Next- generation
infrastructure
32
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Agenda
Changing Dynamics of Cities
Changing Dynamics of Neighborhoods
Neighborhood Business Planning
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Identify neighborhood assets/opportunities
Develop customized strategies
Turn strategies into concrete actions
Build institutional capacity
Execute
Business Planning: A Proven Discipline for Comprehensive, Effective Action
34
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Identify neighborhood assets/opportunities
Develop customized strategies
Turn strategies into concrete actions
Build institutional capacity
Execute
NEIGHBORHOOD BUSINESS PLANNING
Mission and Vision
Market Analysis
Strategies
Products and Services
Operational Planning
Financial Planning
Performance Monitoring
Business Planning: A Proven Discipline for Comprehensive, Effective Action
34
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Elements of a Business PlanMISSION/VISION
• Tailored to specific assets, opportunities, type
• What kind of neighborhood do you aspire to be?
• What residents, businesses, outcomes?
35
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Elements of a Business PlanMISSION/VISION
• Tailored to specific assets, opportunities, type
• What kind of neighborhood do you aspire to be?
• What residents, businesses, outcomes?
MARKET ANALYSIS• Rigorous, fact-based • Comprehensive assessment of
assets, market barriers, opportunities, existing initiatives
• Status, Dynamics
35
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Elements of a Business PlanMISSION/VISION
• Tailored to specific assets, opportunities, type
• What kind of neighborhood do you aspire to be?
• What residents, businesses, outcomes?
MARKET ANALYSIS• Rigorous, fact-based • Comprehensive assessment of
assets, market barriers, opportunities, existing initiatives
• Status, Dynamics
STRATEGIES• Tailored to assets, opportunities,
targeted trajectories identified in market analysis
• Mutually reinforcing
35
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Elements of a Business PlanMISSION/VISION
• Tailored to specific assets, opportunities, type
• What kind of neighborhood do you aspire to be?
• What residents, businesses, outcomes?
INITIATIVES, PRODUCTS• Specific activities to implement
strategies• Adapt best practices• Design, engage stakeholders, market
test• Evaluate feasibility, effectiveness
MARKET ANALYSIS• Rigorous, fact-based • Comprehensive assessment of
assets, market barriers, opportunities, existing initiatives
• Status, Dynamics
STRATEGIES• Tailored to assets, opportunities,
targeted trajectories identified in market analysis
• Mutually reinforcing
35
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Elements of a Business PlanMISSION/VISION
• Tailored to specific assets, opportunities, type
• What kind of neighborhood do you aspire to be?
• What residents, businesses, outcomes?
INITIATIVES, PRODUCTS• Specific activities to implement
strategies• Adapt best practices• Design, engage stakeholders, market
test• Evaluate feasibility, effectiveness
OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Staffing, facilities, necessary to
deliver products• Operational and organizational
implications• Financial requirements, sources,
pro formas
MARKET ANALYSIS• Rigorous, fact-based • Comprehensive assessment of
assets, market barriers, opportunities, existing initiatives
• Status, Dynamics
STRATEGIES• Tailored to assets, opportunities,
targeted trajectories identified in market analysis
• Mutually reinforcing
35
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Elements of a Business Plan
PERFORMANCE MONITORING
• Measurable goals, metrics• Continually track progress• Update market analysis• Adjust strategies and initiatives
based on results
MISSION/VISION• Tailored to specific assets,
opportunities, type• What kind of neighborhood do
you aspire to be?• What residents, businesses,
outcomes?
INITIATIVES, PRODUCTS• Specific activities to implement
strategies• Adapt best practices• Design, engage stakeholders, market
test• Evaluate feasibility, effectiveness
OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Staffing, facilities, necessary to
deliver products• Operational and organizational
implications• Financial requirements, sources,
pro formas
MARKET ANALYSIS• Rigorous, fact-based • Comprehensive assessment of
assets, market barriers, opportunities, existing initiatives
• Status, Dynamics
STRATEGIES• Tailored to assets, opportunities,
targeted trajectories identified in market analysis
• Mutually reinforcing
35
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Why Neighborhood Business Planning?
36
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Why Neighborhood Business Planning? Neighborhoods and regions succeed or fail
together Regions need neighborhood assets to sustainably grow Neighborhoods don’t have economies – they have
assets, and prosper when they contribute to & benefit from regional growth
36
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Why Neighborhood Business Planning? Neighborhoods and regions succeed or fail
together Regions need neighborhood assets to sustainably grow Neighborhoods don’t have economies – they have
assets, and prosper when they contribute to & benefit from regional growth
Integrated regional/sub-regional growth plans align the two Regional plans provide “North Star” – market context,
mutually reinforcing strategies Neighborhood plans bring regional priorities to ground,
tailored to the challenges and opportunities of specific places
36
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Outcomes: Catalyzing Action
37
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Outcomes: Catalyzing Action
37
Detailed, objective market analysis, providing a shared, understanding of opportunities and foundation for collaboration
A strategic economic growth action agenda, providing unified goals, vision and strategies; detailed business plan for coordinating, organizing and aligning activities
The
Plan
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Outcomes: Catalyzing Action
37
Detailed, objective market analysis, providing a shared, understanding of opportunities and foundation for collaboration
A strategic economic growth action agenda, providing unified goals, vision and strategies; detailed business plan for coordinating, organizing and aligning activities
Identification and design of implementation activities, the most important outcome of the planning process
The
Plan
Initi
ativ
es
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Outcomes: Catalyzing Action
37
Detailed, objective market analysis, providing a shared, understanding of opportunities and foundation for collaboration
A strategic economic growth action agenda, providing unified goals, vision and strategies; detailed business plan for coordinating, organizing and aligning activities
Identification and design of implementation activities, the most important outcome of the planning process
Institutional infrastructure, providing platform for long-term cross-sector collaboration and invention
The
Plan
Initi
ativ
esC
ivic
s
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
The Civics of NBP
38
Next-economy plan requires next-economy governance
Next-economy imperatives include:– Regional connectivity– Flexibility/adaptability– Inclusion– Rich formal and informal networks
Key partners include:– Civic/non-profit – convene stakeholders, represent
community constituencies, deliver programs/services– Business – provide market perspective, drive economic
growth– Government – align resources/programming with
strategiesCivics and economics are iterative and mutually informing
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
FORTUNE100CLOSE, COOL,
COMMERCIALNO PLACELIKE HOME
THE TRULY DISADVANTAGED TRANSIENT
UNDER-DEVELOPED
lower income higher income
STABLE LOW INCOME PORT OF
ENTRYCOMING
ATTRACTIONSURBAN TAPESTRY
Taxonomy Structure: “Genus, Phylum, Species”
39
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Applying the Taxonomy: Neighborhood Transition
2000
1990
Truly Disadvantaged
Trans. Under-
developed
Stable Low Income
Port of Entry
Urban Tapestry
Coming Attractions
No Place Like
HomeClose, Cool, Commercial
Fortune 500
Truly DisadvantagedTrans.
Underdeveloped
Stable Low Income
Port of Entry
Urban Tapestry
Coming Attractions
No Place Like
HomeClose, Cool,
CommercialFortune 500
Transition Matrix
40
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Applying the Taxonomy: Neighborhood Transition
High Racial DiversityOlder, Single Family HomesAverage Incomes, Low UnemploymentLow Crime
Type 5: Urban Tapestry58.9%
Type 4: Port of Entry 21.1%
Type 8: Close, Cool, Commercial
7.8%
Type 3: Stable Low
Income7.2%
High Population Foreign BornFamilies, High Resident MobilityBelow-average IncomesUnemployment < 10%Low Crime
Young, Educated ProfessionalsRented ApartmentsMid-High IncomeMany Consumption AmenitiesHigh Residential Mobility
Primarily African AmericanSingle Family Homes,High Residential StabilityHigh CrimeHigh Unemployment
2000
1990
Truly Disadvantaged
Trans. Under-
developed
Stable Low Income
Port of Entry
Urban Tapestry
Coming Attractions
No Place Like
HomeClose, Cool, Commercial
Fortune 500
Truly DisadvantagedTrans.
Underdeveloped
Stable Low Income
Port of Entry
Urban Tapestry
Coming Attractions
No Place Like
HomeClose, Cool,
CommercialFortune 500
Transition Matrix
40
Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus
Positioning Your Neighborhood for Economic DevelopmentChoice Neighborhoods Grantee Conference
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
March 17, 2016
Roberta GarberHannah JonesLyneir RichardsonRobert Weissbourd
Background –Columbus TA Request
Focus on retail/commercial initiatives – Potential grocery store– Historic commercial/arts district– Proposed neighborhood gateway
Issues– Neighborhood in regional context– Aligning strategies– Looking forward: serving existing AND future residents– Staging
114221
2
Physical Context 43
3
Development Context: Challenges Vacant residential and commercial buildings Depopulation Only 3% of people who work in the neighborhood,
live in the neighborhood Poverty—large family public housing development Crime and safety issues Limited retail/commercial options Few large commercial sites that are ready to
develop
44
4
Development Context: Assets Adjacent to downtown, Columbus State, major
thoroughfares– New Long St. and Spring St. bridges and caps over I-71
Significant new development and revitalization in the west end of the neighborhood– King-Lincoln Historic Cultural District– NoBo homeownership development
Active residential market Ohio State investment in PACT, Taylor Ave. corridor
Poindexter Village demolished in 2013; rapid new housing development
45
5
Blueprint for Community Investment
46
6
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Connecting the “Frames”
Retail Demand
Retail Supply
Quality of Life
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Mobility –who moves in/out
47
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Connecting the “Frames”
Retail Demand
Retail Supply
Quality of Life
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Wealth and Connectedness of Residents
Wealth and Connectedness of Businesses
Mobility –who moves in/out
47
© RW Ventures, LLC 2016
Connecting the “Frames”
Retail Demand
Retail Supply
Quality of Life
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Wealth and Connectedness of Residents
Human Capital Stock and Deployment
Urban Growth Form
Clusters
Wealth and Connectedness of Businesses
Innovation and Entrepreneurshi
p
Inst
itutio
nal E
nviro
nmen
t (Go
vern
ance
)
Mobility –who moves in/out
47
48
7
Neighborhood Retail Framework Retail tends to follow neighborhood
development– Leading edge retail possible,
but difficult
49
Strategic Retail Development:Retail development that capitalizes on neighborhood trends, aligned with the emerging market, to accelerate neighborhood transformation
Neighborhood /Trade Area
Trajectories
CurrentNeighborhood /
Trade AreaStatus
RetailMarket
Opportunities
8
Retail Guidance for Columbus Viability depends on mutually
reinforcing and aligned strategies– Define/brand the neighborhood– Adding households, income, daytime
population– Addressing safety and other concerns– Business retention
50
9
Retail Guidance for Columbus Viability depends on mutually
reinforcing and aligned strategies– Define/brand the neighborhood– Adding households, income, daytime
population– Addressing safety and other concerns– Business retention
Trajectory and Timing– Future focused– Role in regional economy– Targeting and staging – Specialty retail opportunities
50
9
Retail Guidance for Columbus Viability depends on mutually
reinforcing and aligned strategies– Define/brand the neighborhood– Adding households, income, daytime
population– Addressing safety and other concerns– Business retention
Trajectory and Timing– Future focused– Role in regional economy– Targeting and staging – Specialty retail opportunities
50
9
Takeaways for Columbus Retail tends to follow neighborhood development
– Leading edge retail possible,but difficult
Need coordinated vision for where community is going, and staged activities to get there, to create and stage retail opportunity– SF rehab market– Anchors: co-investing, procurement, employee
homeownership– Strategic employer attraction add’l shoppers– Branding– Business friendly; Public safety (e.g., “safe zones”)
51
10
Takeaways FROM Columbus “helped us focus…appreciated the straightforward
feedback” “brought new people to the table” “better understanding of sequencing of
retail/commercial and housing development” “plan is more focused…targeted geographic
nodes and fewer individual projects…thinking about what kinds of businesses fit where and what their needs are”
“could have used more help to move it along”
52
11
After the TA: Back to Reality Neighborhood economic development strategy is
bigger than retail/commercial– Institutional organizations and buildings are the drivers
of investment
No one entity is in charge of implementing the overall economic development strategy– Many individual projects
The readiness issue– Need to strike while the iron is hot
Choice CCI parameters
53
12
Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus
Positioning Your Neighborhood for Economic DevelopmentChoice Neighborhoods Grantee Conference
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
March 17, 2016
Bobbie GarberHannah JonesLyneir RichardsonRobert Weissbourd