possible detection of neutrinos from a solar flare jere jenkins ephraim fischbach john buncher tom...
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![Page 1: Possible Detection of Neutrinos from a Solar Flare Jere Jenkins Ephraim Fischbach John Buncher Tom Gruenwald Tasneem Mohsinally Dennis Krause Josh Mattes](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062808/56649d615503460f94a43736/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Possible Detection of Neutrinos from a Solar Flare
Jere JenkinsEphraim Fischbach
John BuncherTom Gruenwald
Tasneem MohsinallyDennis Krause
Josh MattesJohn Newport
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A New Test of Randomness
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Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance
0.997
0.998
0.999
1.000
1.001
1.002
1.003
1.004
08
/81
02
/82
09
/82
03
/83
10
/83
04
/84
11
/84
06
/85
12
/85
07
/86
Date
No
rma
lize
d B
NL
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1/R
^2
(a
.u.^
2)
Normalized Un-decayed 1/R 2̂
Correlation = 0.42, 297 Points, prob=4x10-14
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Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
7 Pt Avg'd Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance
0.998500
0.999000
0.999500
1.000000
1.000500
1.001000
1.001500
1.002000
08
/81
02
/82
09
/82
03
/83
10
/83
04
/84
11
/84
06
/85
12
/85
07
/86
Date
No
rma
lize
d B
NL
0.960000
0.970000
0.980000
0.990000
1.000000
1.010000
1.020000
1.030000
1.040000
1/R
^2
(a
.u.^
2)
Un-decayed 7pt avg 1/R 2̂
Correlation = 0.58, 289 Points, prob=2x10-27
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Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1
Raw Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance
0.9994
0.9996
0.9998
1
1.0002
1.0004
1.0006
1.0008
1.001
3/2
3/8
3
3/2
2/8
4
3/2
2/8
5
3/2
2/8
6
3/2
2/8
7
3/2
1/8
8
3/2
1/8
9
3/2
1/9
0
3/2
1/9
1
3/2
0/9
2
3/2
0/9
3
3/2
0/9
4
3/2
0/9
5
3/1
9/9
6
3/1
9/9
7
3/1
9/9
8
3/1
9/9
9
3/1
8/0
0
Date
No
rmal
ized
226
Ra
Dat
a
0.960
0.970
0.980
0.990
1.000
1.010
1.020
1.030
1.040
1/R
^2
(a.u
.^2)
ln(undecayed) 1/R^2 (a.u)^2
Correlation = 0.62, 1974 Points, prob=5.1x10-210
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Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1
7 Pt Avg Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance
0.9995
0.9996
0.9997
0.9998
0.9999
1
1.0001
1.0002
1.0003
1.0004
1.0005
3/2
3/8
3
3/2
2/8
4
3/2
2/8
5
3/2
2/8
6
3/2
2/8
7
3/2
1/8
8
3/2
1/8
9
3/2
1/9
0
3/2
1/9
1
3/2
0/9
2
3/2
0/9
3
3/2
0/9
4
3/2
0/9
5
3/1
9/9
6
3/1
9/9
7
3/1
9/9
8
3/1
9/9
9
3/1
8/0
0
Date
No
rmal
ized
226
Ra
Dat
a
0.960
0.970
0.980
0.990
1.000
1.010
1.020
1.030
1.040
1/R
^2
(a.u
.^2)
ln(undecayed) 1/R^2 (a.u)^2
Correlation = 0.66, 1968 Points, 1.8x10-246
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BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Data with Earth-Sun Distance
0.9985
0.999
0.9995
1
1.0005
1.001
1.0015
1.002
1983.50 1984.00 1984.50 1985.00 1985.50 1986.00 1986.50
Date
No
rmal
ized
Dec
ay D
ata
(Red
)
0.9996
0.9997
0.9998
0.9999
1
1.0001
1.0002
1.0003
1.0004
Sca
led
1/R
^2,
an
d N
orm
aliz
ed D
ecay
(B
lue)
BNL 32Si (Normalized Wk Avg) PTB 226Ra (Normalized Wk Avgd) 1/R 2̂
BNL/PTB Raw Correlation=0.56, 43 points, prob=9.4x10-5
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BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Normalized Weekly Averaged 5 Point Smoothed
0.9985
0.999
0.9995
1
1.0005
1.001
1.0015
1983.50 1984.00 1984.50 1985.00 1985.50 1986.00 1986.50
Date
No
rmal
ized
Dec
ay D
ata
(Red
)
0.9998
0.99985
0.9999
0.99995
1
1.00005
1.0001
1.00015
Sca
led
1/R
^2,
an
d N
orm
aliz
ed D
ecay
(B
lue)
BNL 32Si 5 Pt Avg 1/R 2̂ PTB 226Ra 5 Pt Avg
BNL/PTB 5 Pt Avg'd Correlation=0.82, 39 points, prob=1.7x10-10
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BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Normalized Weekly Averaged 7 Point Smoothed
0.9985
0.999
0.9995
1
1.0005
1.001
1.0015
1983.50 1984.00 1984.50 1985.00 1985.50 1986.00 1986.50
Date
No
rmal
ized
Dec
ay D
ata
(Red
)
0.9998
0.99985
0.9999
0.99995
1
1.00005
1.0001
1.00015
Sca
led
1/R
^2,
an
d N
orm
aliz
ed D
ecay
(B
lue)
BNL 32Si 7 Pt Avg 1/R 2̂ PTB 226Ra 7 Pt Avg
BNL/PTB 7 Pt Avg'd Correlation=0.81, 37 points, prob=1.3x10-9
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Data from Yoo, et al., Phys Rev 68, 092002 (2003)
Super-K Data
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
10/28/95 3/11/97 7/24/98 12/6/99 4/19/01 9/1/02
Date
No
rmaliz
ed
Nu
-flu
x
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
Dis
tan
ce
fro
m E
to
Su
n
(1/R
^2
, a
.u.)
7 Pt Avgd Normalized Phi-nu 1/R 2̂
Correlation = 0.38, 181 points, prob=3x10-7
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Motivation for Purdue Experiments
• Correlation between BNL and PTB data
• Correlation of these data with 1/R2 Earth-Sun distance
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Physics 167 Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data
17.035
17.04
17.045
17.05
17.055
17.06
12/2
12/4
12/6
12/8
12/1
0
12/1
2
Date (2006)
ln(4
hr
cou
nt)
Measured Published Decay Fit to Actual Decayed
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Sunspot 930 Source of Dec 06 Flares
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Physics 167 Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data
17.02
17.025
17.03
17.035
17.04
17.045
17.05
17.055
17.0612
/2
12/4
12/6
12/8
12/1
0
12/1
2
12/1
4
12/1
6
12/1
8
Date (2006)
ln(4
hr
cou
nt)
Measured Published Decay Fit to Actual Decayed
(7.51±1.07) x 105
Events missing
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Physics 167 Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized with Linear GEOS11 x-ray Data
0.9997
0.99975
0.9998
0.99985
0.9999
0.99995
1
1.00005
1.000111
/29
12/4
12/9
12/1
4
12/1
9
12/2
4
12/2
9
1/3
1/8
Date (2006)
ln(4
hr
cou
nt)
/lin
e fi
t va
lue(
t)
0.0E+00
1.0E-04
2.0E-04
3.0E-04
4.0E-04
5.0E-04
6.0E-04
7.0E-04
8.0E-04
9.0E-04
W/m
^2
Measured X-Ray GEOS11Long
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Physics 167 Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized with GEOS11 x-ray Data
0.9997
0.99975
0.9998
0.99985
0.9999
0.99995
1
1.00005
1.0001
11/2
9
12/4
12/9
12/1
4
12/1
9
12/2
4
12/2
9
1/3
1/8
Date (2006)
ln(4
hr
ct)/
line
fit
1.0E-09
1.0E-08
1.0E-07
1.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.0E+00
W/m
^2
Measured X-Ray GEOS11Long
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PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized
0.9998
0.99985
0.9999
0.99995
1
1.00005
1.0001
10/1
5
10/2
0
10/2
5
10/3
0
11/4
11/9
11/1
4
11/1
9
11/2
4
11/2
9
Elapsed Days
ln(4
hr
cou
nt)
/lin
e fi
t va
lue(
t)
0.0E+00
1.0E-06
2.0E-06
3.0E-06
4.0E-06
5.0E-06
6.0E-06
7.0E-06
8.0E-06
9.0E-06
1.0E-05
W/m
^2
Measured X-ray SHORT X-Ray LONG
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Chen, Okutsu, and Longuski
Arrival 5/25/2008
Launch 8/3/2007
( )1-
(0)
N t
N
0 50 100 150 200 250 300-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
Time (Days since launch)
32Si
226Ra
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Chen, Okutsu, and Longuski
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Chen, Okutsu, and Longuski
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900-0.18
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
Time (Days since launch)
( )1
(0)
N t
N
32Si
226Ra
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Potential Missions for Experiment
• Monitor decay rate on Earth.– Precisely measure variations in decay rates between periapsis and
apoapsis.• Stable orbit around stable Lagrange points.
– May have significant difference between apoapsis and periapsis.• Mars Science Laboratory.
– Radioisotope power system for generation of electricity from the heat of radioactive decay.
• Jupiter Polar Orbiter (Juno).– Map Jupiter's gravitational and magnetic fields.
• Europa Jupiter System Mission.– Likely to have radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) on
board.• Titan Saturn System Mission.
– Likely presence of RTG onboard.• Europa Astrobiology Lander.
– Likely presence of RTG onboard.• Solar Probe Plus
– Spacecraft designed to plunge deep into the sun's atmosphere • Heliophysical Explorers Solar Orbiters and Sentinels.
– Multiple close approaches to the sun.
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NASA’s Upcoming Missions
Mars Science Laboratory
Launch: September 2009
• Can measure radiation produced by the interaction of space radiation with the Martian atmosphere and surface rocks and soils.
• Carries radioisotope power system to generate electricity from the heat of plutonium's radioactive decay.
Juno
Launch: August 2011
•Will precisely map Jupiter's gravitational and magnetic fields to assess the distribution of mass in Jupiter's interior, including properties of the planet's structure and dynamics.
Chen, Okutsu, and Longuski
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Spatial Variation of the Fine Structure Constant
For alpha decay (e.g., 226Ra 222Rn + 4He)
1
4Zv
c
6.310 3
From our 226Ra data,
4 10 4
310 6
This may be incompatible with existing WEP and 5th force constraints.
References: D. J. Shaw, gr-qc/0702090; J.D. Barrow and D. J. Shaw, arXiv:0806:4317; J.-P.
Uzan, Rev. Mod. Phys. 75, 403 (2003)
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Possible Mechanism
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Beta decay formulae
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Beta decay Formulae
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Variation in Solar Neutrino FluxddE
E E2 me2 (E0 E)2
1.For -decay, where is extremely sensitive to small shifts in E0
2.Assume E0 E0+, where arises from solar neutrinos, then
3.Next, assumewhere
4.For an unpolarized sample,
(E0 E)2 (E0 E)2 2(E0 E) 2
1 2 1 23ˆ ˆ[3( )( )
Ar r
r
1e , 2 p,e,n,e
(E0 E)2 (E0 E)2 2
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Variation in Solar Neutrino Flux (cont’d)
5.Compare this to the change induced by
2 2 2 2 20
1 ( ) ,
2v vFor E E m m
(E0 E)2 (E0 E) (E0 E)2 mv2
m2 0
2 2 2
2 2 2
= 100 eV to 10 eV .
50 eV to 5 eV
vm
This may be compatible with current limits on neutrino magnetic dipole moments.
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Summary
1. BNL and PTB data indicate an annual modulation of 32Si and 226Ra decay rates strongly correlated with 1/R2
2. Data taken during the 12-Dec 2006 solar flare on 54Mn also showed a response of the decay rate to solar flux.
3. These data are consistent with a modulation of nuclear decay rates by solar neutrinos and, perhaps, by some other field.
4. Detailed mechanisms to account for these data can be tested in upcoming NASA Mars missions and the NASA Sentinels mission.
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END
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PTB Data Normalized with Error Bars
5.582
5.583
5.584
5.585
5.586
5.587
5.588
5.589
5.59
5.591
2/18/82 11/14/84 8/11/87 5/7/90 1/31/93 10/28/95 7/24/98 4/19/01
Date
ln(N
orm
aliz
ed C
urr
ent)
ln (undecayed)
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Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance
0.996000
0.997000
0.998000
0.999000
1.000000
1.001000
1.002000
1.003000
1.004000
1.005000
08
/81
02
/82
09
/82
03
/83
10
/83
04
/84
11
/84
06
/85
12
/85
07
/86
Date
No
rma
lize
d B
NL
0.960000
0.970000
0.980000
0.990000
1.000000
1.010000
1.020000
1.030000
1.040000
1/R
^2
(a
.u.^
2)
Normalized Un-decayed 1/R 2̂
Correlation = 0.42, 297 Points
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Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
BNL 32Si/36Cl Ratio Raw Data
y = -8E-06x + 0.9255
R2 = 0.9487
0.682
0.684
0.686
0.688
0.690
0.692
0.694
0.696
0.698
0.700
8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86
Time (GMT)
A/B
Ra
w
A/B Linear (A/B)
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Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
BNL 32Si/36Cl Ratio Normalized Data
0.693
0.693
0.694
0.694
0.695
0.695
0.696
0.696
0.697
0.697
0.698
8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86
Time (GMT)
A/B
No
rma
lized
A/B
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Normalized BNL 32Si Data With Solar Latitude
0.6925
0.6930
0.6935
0.6940
0.6945
0.6950
0.6955
0.6960
0.6965
0.6970
0.6975
8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86
Time (GMT)
A/B
No
rmaliz
ed
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
So
lar
Lat
itu
de
A/B Solar Latitude
Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176,And NASA, http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/
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Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176,And NASA, http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Normalized BNL 32Si 7 Point Average With Solar Latitude
0.6935
0.694
0.6945
0.695
0.6955
0.696
0.6965
8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86
Time (GMT)
No
rmal
ized
A/B
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
So
lar
Lat
itu
de
A/B Solar Latatude
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R tt s
( ). cos tan . tan .
1
1 0 0167102 2 1033998 100377 101 7 1
a.u.
Earth-Sun Distance as a Function of Time
t = time in secondst0 =January 5, Perihelion each year
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Correlation Between Flare and Decay Data
• Undecayed the 54Mn data, and then normalized to the average. Each data point represents the subsequent 4 hour count (approximately 25 million events/4 hours live time)
• Plotted along with the x-ray data to show timing of the flare event
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PTB 226Ra Data
y = -0.0000012491x + 5.6238014201
R2 = 0.8618942992
5.574
5.576
5.578
5.58
5.582
5.584
5.586
5.588
5.59
2/18/19820:00
11/14/19840:00
8/11/19870:00
5/7/19900:00
1/31/19930:00
10/28/19950:00
7/24/19980:00
4/19/20010:00
Date
ln(c
ou
nt)
ln(Count) Linear (ln(Count))
Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1T1/2 = ~1518 y
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Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1
Un-decayed PTB 226Ra Data
5.582
5.583
5.584
5.585
5.586
5.587
5.588
5.589
5.59
5.591
1/4/
83
1/4/
84
1/3/
85
1/3/
86
1/4/
87
1/4/
88
1/3/
89
1/3/
90
1/4/
91
1/4/
92
1/3/
93
1/3/
94
1/4/
95
1/4/
96
1/3/
97
1/3/
98
1/4/
99
1/4/
00
Date
ln(u
n-d
ec
ay
ed
co
un
t)
ln(undecayed)
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Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176
5 Pt Avg'd Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance
0.998500
0.999000
0.999500
1.000000
1.000500
1.001000
1.001500
1.002000
1.002500
08
/81
02
/82
09
/82
03
/83
10
/83
04
/84
11
/84
06
/85
12
/85
07
/86
Date
No
rma
lize
d B
NL
0.960000
0.970000
0.980000
0.990000
1.000000
1.010000
1.020000
1.030000
1.040000
1/R
^2
(a
.u.^
2)
Un-decayed 5 pt avg 1/R 2̂
Correlation = 0.57, 293 Points
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Un-decayed PTB Data with Raw and 5 Pt Averaged Counts
5.582
5.583
5.584
5.585
5.586
5.587
5.588
5.589
5.59
5.591
1/4
/83
1/4
/84
1/3
/85
1/3
/86
1/4
/87
1/4
/88
1/3
/89
1/3
/90
1/4
/91
1/4
/92
1/3
/93
1/3
/94
1/4
/95
1/4
/96
1/3
/97
1/3
/98
1/4
/99
1/4
/00
Date
ln(u
nd
ec
ay
ed
co
un
t)
5 Point Averaged Normalized Counts Raw Normalized Counts
03/2
2/8
4
Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1
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Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1
5 Pt Avg Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance
0.9994
0.9996
0.9998
1
1.0002
1.0004
1.0006
3/2
3/8
3
3/2
2/8
4
3/2
2/8
5
3/2
2/8
6
3/2
2/8
7
3/2
1/8
8
3/2
1/8
9
3/2
1/9
0
3/2
1/9
1
3/2
0/9
2
3/2
0/9
3
3/2
0/9
4
3/2
0/9
5
3/1
9/9
6
3/1
9/9
7
3/1
9/9
8
3/1
9/9
9
3/1
8/0
0
Date
No
rmal
ized
226
Ra
Dat
a
0.960
0.970
0.980
0.990
1.000
1.010
1.020
1.030
1.040
1/R
^2
(a.u
.^2)
ln(undecayed) 1/R^2 (a.u)^2
Correlation = 0.65, 1970 Points, prob=6.4x10-237
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PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts
y = -0.0022106x + 103.3939495
R2 = 0.9982370
y = -0.000354849x + 30.958741922
R2 = 0.213745887
17.07
17.08
17.09
17.1
17.11
17.12
17.13
17.14
17.15
17.16
17.17
10/1
9
10/2
4
10/2
9
11/3
11/8
11/1
3
11/1
8
11/2
3
11/2
8
Elapsed Days
ln(4
hr
cou
nt)
Measured Flat Line Published Linear (Measured) Linear (Flat Line)
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New Data Set with HPGe Detector
• Began a new 54Mn measurement using a HPGe detector inside a heavy shield, starting Dec 2007
• Using same 4 hour live time counting
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Comparison of BNL Data to PTB Data
• Took averages of all measurements made during a calendar week for both data sets (similar to what was done by BNL group)
• Eliminated all data points that did not coincide (i.e. did not have associated measurement in the other set.)
• Performed standard correlation between the data sets.
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Start Stop Total events slope (a)= σa= T1/2 Significance
PHARM 0-39 10/19/06 17:10 10/26/06 16:18 1,125,533,997 -0.002057562 1.45E-05 336.878 -11.28
PHARM 40-79 10/26/06 20:35 11/02/06 18:33 1,107,115,186 -0.002137321 1.48E-05 324.307 -5.65
PHARM 80-119 11/02/06 22:50 11/10/06 16:04 1,087,799,523 -0.002684431 1.27E-05 258.210 36.59
PHARM 120-159 11/10/06 20:20 11/17/06 18:55 1,070,959,137 -0.002001981 1.49E-05 346.230 -14.69
PHARM 160-199 11/17/06 23:11 11/24/06 21:36 1,055,144,190 -0.002228968 1.5E-05 310.972 0.55
PHYS 167 0-39 12/2/06 16:40 12/09/06 14:47 1,013,691,320 -0.002403516 1.54E-05 288.389 11.89
PHYS 167 40-79 12/09/06 19:02 12/16/06 17:00 995,311,701 -0.002616834 1.55E-05 264.880 25.55
PHYS 167 80-119 12/16/06 21:15 12/23/06 19:05 978,797,865 -0.00222234 1.56E-05 311.890 0.10
PHYS 167 120-159 12/23/06 23:20 12/30/06 20:59 964,155,029 -0.002181871 1.58E-05 317.685 -2.46
Comparison of Decays Oct-Dec
0.9986
0.9988
0.999
0.9992
0.9994
0.9996
0.9998
1
1.0002
0 10 20 30 40 50
Count #
ln[C
R(n
)]/ln
[CR
(1)]
Set 1
Set 2
Set 3
Set 4
Set 5
Set 6
Set 7
Set 8
Set 9
Linear (Set 4)
Linear (Set 1)
Linear (Set 7)
Linear (Set 3)
Linear (Set 6)
Linear (Set 8)
Linear (Set 2)
Linear (Set 9)
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54Mn Decay Measurement in EE B77
y = -0.00220108x + 102.90490341
R2 = 0.99996634
15.7515.7715.7915.8115.8315.8515.8715.8915.9115.9315.9515.9715.9916.0116.0316.0516.0716.0916.1116.13
14-Nov 4-Dec 24-Dec 13-Jan 2-Feb 22-Feb 13-Mar 2-Apr 22-Apr 12-May 1-Jun
Count Start Time (EST, 2007-08)
ln(4
hr
live
co
un
t)
ln(gross) Published Decay Linear (ln(gross))
Measured from This Dataslope (a)= -0.00220064; λpublished= 0.002220771T1/2 = 314.9753347 days (314.97533(2))
σa2= 5.94691E-14
σa= 2.43863E-07
Difference= -2.01319E-05Our Significance = 82.55 Theirs = 47.59
χ2= 2798.162
χ2/d.o.f.= 3.058 917 points entered
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November ln(gross) decay with Ap Magnetic Data
17.07
17.09
17.11
17.13
17.15
17.17
10/15 10/20 10/25 10/30 11/4 11/9 11/14 11/19 11/24 11/29Date
ln(g
ross
cts
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mag
net
ic In
dex (A
p)
ln(gross) Ap Linear (ln(gross))
Major Solar Storm 11 Nov
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November ln(gross) decay with Kp Magnetic Data
17.07
17.08
17.09
17.1
17.11
17.12
17.13
17.14
17.15
17.16
17.17
10/15 10/20 10/25 10/30 11/4 11/9 11/14 11/19 11/24 11/29Date
ln(g
ross
cts
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mag
net
ic In
dex (K
p)
ln(gross) Kp Linear (ln(gross))
Major Solar Storm 11 Nov
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December ln(gross) decay with measured Magnetic Data
16.97
16.98
16.99
17
17.01
17.02
17.03
17.04
17.05
17.06
11/29 12/4 12/9 12/14 12/19 12/24 12/29 1/3 1/8
Date
ln(g
ros
s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ma
gn
eti
c In
de
x (
Ap
)
ln(gross) Ap Linear (ln(gross))
12 Dec storm
22 Dec storm
17 Dec storm
Ap Peak 00:00 12/15
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December ln(gross) decay with measured Magnetic Data
16.97
16.98
16.99
17
17.01
17.02
17.03
17.04
17.05
17.06
11/29 12/4 12/9 12/14 12/19 12/24 12/29 1/3 1/8
Date
ln(g
ros
s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ma
gn
eti
c In
de
x (
Kp
)
ln(gross) Kp Linear (ln(gross))
12 Dec storm
22 Dec storm
17 Dec storm
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Magnetic Field Sensitivity Measurements (45o Orientation)
24800
25000
25200
25400
25600
25800
26000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Count #
Co
un
ts/1
0s
Series1 +sigma -sigma +3sigma -3sigma
ZeroField
0 Gauss
EarthField
0.429 Gauss
2x EarthField
0.85 Gauss
EarthField
0.42Gauss
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Un-decaying (flattening) Data Points
• For visual purposes, each data point is multiplied as
which offsets the exponential decrease in the count rate, and highlights the effects of fluctuations. Note: This does not change the statistical significance of the results.
Countrate e t t 0
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from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1
Authors’ explanation for the apparent seasonal variations in the data from the 226Ra counts.
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Background Corrected Counts with Expected Decays
y = -0.0022624x + 105.3750114
R2 = 0.9987422
y = -0.0022208x + 103.7495892
R2 = 1.0000000
16.94
16.95
16.96
16.97
16.98
16.99
17
17.01
17.02
17.03
12/2
12/4
12/6
12/8
12/1
0
12/1
2
12/1
4
12/1
6
12/1
8
12/2
0
12/2
2
12/2
4
12/2
6
12/2
8
12/3
0
1/1
1/3
1/5
Date (2006)
ln(4
hr
cou
nt)
Measured Published Decay Linear (Measured) Linear (Published Decay)
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54Mn Decay Measurement in EE B77
0.99988
0.9999
0.99992
0.99994
0.99996
0.99998
1
1.00002
1.00004
1.00006
1.00008
14-Nov 4-Dec 24-Dec 13-Jan 2-Feb 22-Feb 13-Mar 2-Apr 22-Apr 12-May 1-Jun
Count Start Time (EST, 2007-08)
ln(4
hr
live
co
un
t)
ln(gross) Poly. (ln(gross))
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54Mn Decay Measurement in EE B77
y = -0.00219776x + 102.77365366
R2 = 0.99994967
15.815.8215.8415.8615.8815.9
15.9215.9415.9615.98
1616.0216.0416.0616.0816.1
16.1216.14
9-D
ec
19-D
ec
29-D
ec
8-J
an
18-J
an
28-J
an
7-F
eb
17-F
eb
27-F
eb
8-M
ar
18-M
ar
28-M
ar
7-A
pr
17-A
pr
Count Start Time (EST, 2007-08)
ln(4
hr
live c
ou
nt)
ln(gross) Published Decay Linear (ln(gross))
Measured from This Data
slope (a)= -0.00219735; λpublished= 0.002220771
T1/2 = 315.446808 days (315.4468(1))
σa2= 1.16604E-13
σa= 3.41474E-07
Difference= -2.34210E-05Significance = -68.59
χ2= 2126.449
χ2/d.o.f.= 2.9493 723 points (4 hr counts) evaluatedTotal events: 6,321,993,808
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