possible futures for the internet: sander steffann, ipv6 specialist, co-chair, ripe address policy...

Sander Steffann, 23 May 2011

Possible futuresPossible futures for the internet

torsdag 26. mai 2011


Where are we now?

• The internet is using IPv4

• But... no more IPv4 addresses– Global pool (IANA) is empty

– European pool (RIPE NCC) will be empty soon

– Internet providers will run out

– Enterprises can not get any IPv4 addresses

• The internet can not continue to grow

• At least not in the way we are used to...

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The original plan

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Now looking like...

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IPv6 Deployment

2004

IPv6 Transition – Dual Stack

IPv4 Pool Size

Size of the Internet

2006 2008 2010 2012

Date

12 months!



Possibility one

• We continue as we do today– IPv4 is used for all communication

– Almost no IPv6 deployment

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Possibility one - what will happen?

• As long as there is demand growth will be forced

• Users now usually get one IPv4 address– Their router is fully connected to the internet

– The PC’s are not, but can work through the router

– The user has control over the router

• But there will not be enough IPv4 addresses to continue to give every user his/her own address...

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Possibility one - what will happen?

• As long as there is demand growth will be forced

• Users will have to share an IPv4 address– Their router is no longer fully connected to the internet

– The ISP can only offer partial service

– The user has no control anymore

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Possibility one - the consequences

• Is this a bad thing? Yes!– Performance will degrade

– More complex » more failures

– Privacy issues

– IPv4 address ≠ one user/customer

– Lawful intercept will be difficult

– Finding abusers will be next to impossible

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Possibility one - the consequences

• What will still work?– Browsing websites, but slower

– Sending and retrieving e-mail

• What won’t work?– Voice over IP / Skype

– Running your own server (web, e-mail, etc)

– Peer-to-peer connections (sharing, gaming, talking, ...)

– Innovation, new applications, ...

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Possibility two

• Websites and other servers continue to use IPv4– Not so many addresses needed for servers

• Users get IPv6 connections– Still need IPv4 to reach websites and other servers...

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Possibility two - what will happen?

• Users still need IPv4 to reach servers– Users will have to share an IPv4 address

• Users will also get an IPv6 connection– IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that also have IPv6

– Plenty of addresses to use without limitation

– This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6

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Possibility two - the consequences

• Is this a bad thing? Yes! (but a bit less bad)– IPv4 services will still have the same problems:

– Performance will degrade, more complex » more failures, privacy issues, lawful intercept will be difficult, finding abusers will be next to impossible

– IPv6 provides a way to do more:

– Voice over IP / Skype, running your own server, peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new applications, ...

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Possibility three

• Most websites and other servers become available over IPv6

– Their IPv4 connection also remains

• Users get IPv6 connections– Still need IPv4 to reach the websites and servers that are late with IPv6 deployment...

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Possibility three - what will happen?

• Users still need IPv4 to reach a few servers– Users will have to share an IPv4 address

– The majority of traffic won’t need this though

• Users will also get an IPv6 connection– IPv6 can be used to access most websites / servers

– IPv6 can be used to communicate with others that also have IPv6

– Plenty of addresses to use without limitation

– This will provide an incentive to offer services over IPv6

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Possibility three - the consequences

• This is where we need to go!– Services are available over IPv6

– No need for performance degrading, complex and difficult techniques (for most services)

– IPv6 provides a way to do more:

– Voice over IP / Skype, running your own server, peer-to-peer connections, innovation, new applications, ...

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Conclusion

• We need IPv6– for websites and other services

– for users

• IPv4 will still remain in many places– Not everyone will get an IPv6 connection soon

– Not all services will be available over IPv6 soon

– This is acceptable, as long as the most-used websites and services are available over IPv6

– Survival of the fittest

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Remaining problems excuses

• Equipment and/or software not available– Solutions exist!

– Buy from a vendor that provides what is needed

• Enabling IPv6 will cause problems for users– Might be true, but for a small percentage (≤ 0,03%)

– World IPv6 Day (June 8th 2011)

• IPv6 is not needed yet– If everybody waits we will end up with possibility one!

– IPv6 is needed

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What to do?

• Website owners and hosters:– Make the site available over IPv6

– Not ipv6.somedomain.nobut www.somedomain.no

– Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support

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What to do?

• Access providers:– Provide IPv6 access to your users

– Provide or advise about IPv6 capable routers

– Give them a decent amount of addresses

– Enough for multiple networks

– Not just one network (/64)

– And certainly not just one device! (/128)

– Make sure IPv6 support is as good as IPv4 support

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What to do?

• Organisations / enterprises:– Talk to your hosting provider about your websites etc.

– Talk to your access provider about your offices

– Talk to your hardware and software vendors

– Teach your staff to support IPv6 at the same level that they support IPv4

– Work on IPv6 deployment in your organisation

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possible futures for the internet: sander steffann, ipv6 specialist, co-chair, ripe address policy...

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