possible scarcity of micronutrients in the food system ... · motive for project platform published...
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Possible scarcity of micronutrients in the food system (Alterra project)
Wim Chardon and Oene Oenema
17-10-2013
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Motive for project
Platform published an –alarming- report in summer 2012
Main conclusions: Zn and Se shortage in many soils, and small reserves on a global scale newspaper articles
Workshop Micronutrients in Agriculture
22 November 2011
Ministry of Economic affairs, Agriculture, and Innovation
Platform Agriculture, Innovation & Society Role: to advise Ministry of Agriculture etc.
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Headlines Dutch newspapers, summer 2012
Essential nutrient zinc is probably gone within 21 years Shortage of zinc and selenium large global risk [Availability of] essential raw materials not obvious Large risk of zinc shortage [We have to] anticipate on zinc shortage
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Motive for project
Aims of Alterra project (2012) for Ministry of Economic affairs, Agriculture, and Innovation :
Make clear if there is now, or if there will be in the future, a scarcity of micronutrients
What the consequences will be for agriculture and food security
Workshop Micronutrients in Agriculture
November 2011
Platform Agriculture, Innovation & Society Role: advise Ministry of Agriculture etc.
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Research questions of the project
Possibility of global or regional scarcity of micronutrients in our food system. Possibilities to prevent losses of these micronutrients to
the environment and/or accumulation in the soil. Potential consequences of scarcity and possibilities to
reduce the causes of scarcity.
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Macro- versus micronutrients
Macronutrients: N, P, K, Ca, Mg, and S (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium,
magnesium, sulfur)
Micronutrients : relatively small need with plant, human or animal Handbook mentions 20 elements:
Al, As, B, Cl, Co, Cr, Cu, F, Fe, I, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, Pb, Se, Si, Sn, V, Zn
1991, 750 pp.
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Not all 20 elements included in this study
1st selection – high content in earth's crust or sea no risk of global scarcity : 7 skipped: Al, Cl, Fe, I, Mn, Na, Si
2nd selection – plant need not really shown / only few crops: 7 skipped: As, Cr, F, Ni, Pb, Sn, V
Selected for study: (20-7-7=6) B, Co, Cu, Mo, Se en Zn boron, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, selenium and zinc
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Differences between elements
World-soil
Plant
Crit. Raw Mat. EU
Export Restricted
Element
mg/kg mg/kg
B 10 40
Co 8 0.2 CRM
Cu 20 10 China
Mo 2 0.5 China
Se 0.2 0.02
Zn 50 50
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Price development, indication of scarcity?
Only for molybdenum and selenium a real increase of the price is found in recent years, when compared with 1991
0
1
2
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pri
ce c
omp
. w
ith
19
91
(=
1)
Year
Price development 1991-2011, infl.corr. 3%/jr
B
Co
Cu
Zn
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pri
ce c
omp
. w
ith
19
91
(=
1)
Year
Price development 1991-2011, infl.corr. 3%/jr
Mo
Se
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Reserves, production and scarcity
Element Reserves Kton
ProductionKton / year
R/P USGS year
R/P Platform
year
Zn 250000 12400 20 21
Reserves = “the amount of an element that can be produced with current techniques and at the current price”
Essential nutrient zinc is probably gone within 21 years
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Reserves, production and scarcity
Element Price Reserves Production R/P
Zn 1 250,000 12,400 20
Reserves = “the amount that can be exploited with current techniques and at the current price”
Example: when market price of element increases, also lower grade ores can be exploited reserves increase, so R/P increases, scarcity decreases
Element Price Reserves Production R/P
Zn 2 600,000 11,500 52
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Reserves, production and prices of micronutrients
Element Reserves Production R/P
USGS R/P
Platform R/P
Cohen
Price 2007-2011
USD/kg
Year 2011 2011 2011 2010 2006
B 65220 1340 49 60
4
Co 7500 98 77
56
Cu 690000 16100 43 39 61 7
Mo 10000 250 40 42 45
Se 93 2 47 39 84
Zn 250000 12400 20 21 46 2
Variation in R/P
Zn lowest price
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Did the increase in price of Zn lead to increase in R/P, so decrease in scarcity?
Temporal price increase of Zn led in 2006/07 probably to higher estimation for R/P by Cohen (2007)
0
1
2
3
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pri
ce U
SD
/kg
Year
Price development zinc 1991-2011
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R/P ratio - “equilibrium values” of elements
R/P ratios of Cu, Pb and Zn are at equilibrium while production continues .... Source: Wellmer (2008) Zeitschrift Deutschen Ges. Geowiss. 159:575-590
R/P
ratio
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R/P ratio - “equilibrium values” of elements
“... money is not spent now on discovering potential deposits which cannot or will not be brought into production within the foreseeable future (+ 25 years).....” “Between reserves and consumption there exists a kind of equilibrium. This equilibrium R/C number is specific for each commodity: for crude oil it is about 45 ..... For zinc it is between 20 and 25, but so far crippling shortages have never occurred” Source of both: Wellmer (2008) Zeitschrift Deutschen Ges. Geowiss. 159:575-590
Thus: the period (years) calculated as R/P is NOT the time after which global reserves will be depleted, but only reflects the size of the stock kept by producing companies.
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Use of micronutrients in agriculture and recycling within industry
Element % Agriculture % Recycling
B 12 0
Co < 1 24
Cu < 1 32
Mo < 1 30
Se 11 0
Zn < 1 27
Boron and selenium: significant % use within food system, but no recycling ...., other elements: agriculture use not relevant
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Copper and zinc in animal manure
• Copper and zinc are used as feed additives in pig production, which leads to relatively high Cu and Zn concentrations in pig manure.
• Balance calculations for Dutch soils show that there is a net accumulation of Cu and Zn.
• On longer term this could lead to leaching and environmental problems.
• Reducing levels in feed would be more sustainable.
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Alternatives for use of micronutrients within industry
Element Alternatives ?
B yes
Co no
Cu yes
Mo yes
Se yes
Zn yes
Cobalt: few alternatives for (industrial) use
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Micronutrients in sewage sludge
Micronutrients we consume end up in sewage sludge. In many countries sewage sludge is burnt, because agricultural use is not allowed.
Ash of sludge ends up in landfills, including the phosphorus that is present in the sludge.
Research is done on recycling of P in sludge, not of micronutrients.
Agricultural use of sewage sludge would be good for recycling of both P and micronutrients.
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Conclusions and points for discussion
Via animal manure a non-sustainable accumulation of copper and zinc takes place in Dutch agricultural soils. This should be reduced by lowering Cu/Zn levels in feed.
The price development of zinc does not give an indication for scarcity in the near future; because of the low price of zinc the R/P-ratio is possibly not a good indicator.
The period (years) calculated as R/P is NOT the time after which global reserves will be depleted, but only reflects the size of the stock kept by producing companies.
The price development of selenium and boron indicates that scarcity may develop, there is hardly any recycling of both.
Agricultural use of sewage sludge would be good for recycling of both P and micronutrients.
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References
This presentation is based on the report: Chardon, W.J., and O. Oenema. 2013. Exploration of possible scarcity of micro nutrients in the food system (in Dutch: Verkenning
mogelijke schaarste aan micronutriënten in het voedselsysteem.) Report 2413, Alterra Wageningen. http://edepot.wur.nl/257460
See also the report (in Dutch) by the Platform Agriculture, Innovation & Society : Udo de Haes, H.A., R.L. Voortman, T. Bastein, D.W. Bussink, C.W. Rougoor, and W.J. van der Weijden. 2012. Schaarste van
micronutriënten in bodem, voedsel en minerale voorraden. Urgentie en opties voor beleid. Advies aan Minister EL&I, Platform
Landbouw, Innovatie & Samenleving, juni 2012. http://www.stuurgroepta.nl/rapporten/Micro-nutrienten-compleet-web.pdf
A paper on (mis)interpretation of R/P values: Wellmer, F.-W. 2008. Reserves and resources of the geosphere, terms so often misunderstood. Is the life index of reserves of natural
resources a guide to the future? Zeitschrift Deutschen Ges. Geowiss. Stuttgart 159:575-590.
Other papers cited: Cohen, D. 1991. Earth's natural wealth: an audit. New Scientist magazine, 23 May 2007, p. 34-41
http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/027ns_005.htm
USGS MCS, United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, available for different elements and years via http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/
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Thanks for your attention !