Post-election Russia,Post-election Russia,End of Putin's Era?End of Putin's Era?

Oleg KozlovskyOleg KozlovskyWroclaw, 2012-04-20Wroclaw, 2012-04-20

Decline of Support for Regime(until December 2011)

Endemic corruption Lack of rule of law Censorship Government's opaqueness Economic hardship New, richer, more self-respecting middle class Increased civic responsibility Proliferation of the Internet

Decline of Support for Regime(up until December 2011)

January 2011: «Party of Crooks and Thieves» September 24, 2011: Putin, Medvedev switch

seats November 27, 2011: Putin booed at a wrestling

match December 4, 2011: Duma elections

Duma Elections(December 4, 2012)

Widespread fraud and irregularities (ballot stuffing, multiple voting, fake protocols etc.)

Level of fraud not much higher than earlier elections

Better publicized thanks to new technologies More attention to and interest in elections Significant drop of official figures for UR, below

50%

Inter-elections Protests(December 2011 — February 2012) Until December 2011, most protests had had at

most 3,000 to 5,000 participants (usually under 500); Moscow had been considered «too wealthy to revolt»

Between elections, four major rallies were held in Moscow that gathered 20,000 to 120,000 participants

100+ cities joined, but had significantly lower figures (up to 15,000 in Saint Petersburg)

A number of journalists, writers, actors etc. expressed support for the protests

Inter-elections Protests(December 2011 — February 2012) The vast majority of participants were ordinary

citizens, not activists Old opposition leaders (both systemic and non-

systemic) negotiated with the authorities and did technical organizing, but barely controlled the people

Facebook (along with Twitter, Vkontakte, LiveJournal) was the main tool for raising awareness, mobilizing, and discussing the protest

The protests were explicitly non-violent, non-confrontational; «change, not revolution»

Extensive use of creativity and humour

Regime's Reaction(December 2011 — February 2012) First attempts to counter protests failed One-way concessions: more democratic party &

election legislation, return of gubernatorial elections, removal of Surkov, webcams at polling stations

Desertions & attempts of dialogue Counter-propaganda against protesters' leaders; «anti-

Orangist», anti-American campaign Gathering big pro-regime rallies (February 4&23)

Presidential Elections(March 4, 2012)

Only «approved» candidates Putin's overwhelming presence on TV Mobilization of supporters Outright fraud (except Moscow) GOTV: Go Observe The Vote campaign in

Moscow Russia: 64% for Putin; Moscow: 47% (fewer

votes than ever before)

Movement's Fatigue(March 2012)

Smaller, more confrontational (but still non-violent) demonstrations

Despair, infighting among activists and leaders Too high expectations lead to disappointments

Preliminary Results

Pro-democracy movement has become mainstream

Thousands of new, smart and enthusiastic people have become active in promoting democracy's cause

Regime's legitimacy was badly damaged by revealed election-rigging and protests

New laws partially dismantle Putin's system of «managed democracy»

Future: Regional Outreach

April 1: Hundreds activists from Moscow go to Yaroslavl to observe local mayoral elections; opposition candidate Urlashov wins runoff with 70% of votes

April 14: 5,000-strong protest in Astrakhan (1500 km South of Moscow) against stolen mayoral elections; hundreds supporters from Moscow and other cities participate

Next up: Omsk, Krasnoyarsk

Future: Parties & Elections

New legislation simplifies creation of political parties and participation in elections: takes only 500 members (instead of 40,000), signature-gathering waived or simplified

Non-systemic opposition will at last have a chance to participate in most elections

Municipal and regional level elections can be won even under Putin's «managed democracy»: proved in Yaroslavl

Small victories are important to prove seriousness and legitimacy of the opposition

Future: New Initiatives

Many of those who «woke up» since December are professionals occupied in business, design, IT, education, etc., i.e. so-called «creative class»

Some of them will channel their energy in new initiatives, projects, and groups dealing with various issues, from corruption to censorship to environment problems

The next year or two will see much more civic activism of different sorts

Future: How It's Going to End

The protests have changed Russia forever The regime won't regain legitimacy More active and capable civil society will

increase pressure on the government New protests will be dedicated to other issues Any event or series of events can spark a new,

stronger wave of protests that will finish off the regime

Oleg Kozlovsky

oleg@kozlovsky.rufacebook.com/kozlovsky

@kozlovsky