post election vote auditing fritz scheuren university of chicago
TRANSCRIPT
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Post Election Vote Auditing
Fritz Scheuren
University of Chicago
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Murphy’s Corollary
If you did not check it, then it did go wrong!
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Outline of Remarks
• Systems Thinking
• Sample Vote Verification
• Forensic Statistical Additions
• Exit Polls
• Better Together
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Systems Thinking• Appreciation of Complexity• No Single System Owner• Political Party Roles• Media Roles• Voters’ Trust and
Participation
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Proactive Response Needed
Benchmarking and Sharing What Works
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Audited Votesand Voter
Surveys
Ishikawa (Fishbone) Diagram
TrustworthyVoting System
TestedBallot
Trained Pollworker
CertifiedEquipment
SecuredTabulationEducated
Voter
VerifiedIdentity
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Sample Vote Verification
• Key to Accountability
• Transparency and Randomness
• Rules of Evidence (Florida?)
• Build A Body of Practice
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Forensic Statistical Additions?
• Exploring Official Results for anomalies
• Confirming Outliers and Inliers• Linking Present to Past Patterns• Developing Lessons Learned
Data Bases, Persisting
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Ohio Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs. The Total
(Trending 84 - 04)
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0 200000 400000 600000 800000
Total Vote of Two Parties
Dif
fere
nce Electronic
Punchcard
Scan
Cuyahoga
Franklin
Hamilton
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Cuyahoga Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs. the Total
(Grouping Precincts 00 - 04)
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
0 300 600 900 1200
Total Votes of Two Parties
Dif
fere
nce
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Exit Polls• Warren Mitofsky• Not a Substitute for Sample
Audits• A Weak Fitness for Use Standard• Badly Misunderstood, Redirect
and Replace
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0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80
Bush Vote Proportion In 2000
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Bu
sh V
ote
Pro
po
rtio
n In
200
4
Whether the exit poll
overstated Bush or Kerry
Exit Poll Overstated Bush
Exit Poll Overstated Kerry
Bush Vote Proportion In 2000 and 2004 For the Ohio Sample Precincts
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More on Refusal Versus Fraud Alternative – 2000 v. 2004
• Are Precincts with Gaps Different?
• Data Does not Support this!
• Actual Results Are Similar not Different
• Scatterplot Shows Rough Similarity
• Distributions Virtually Identical
• Mitofsky “Bias in Refusals” Hypothesis Supported Instead
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Still More on Predictive Value of Exit Poll v. Actual Results
• Another Look at Gap over time
• 2004 Exit Poll v. 2004 Actual Gap
• Versus 2000-2004 Change
• Fraud Hypothesis would Predict
• Gap is Correlated to Change
• Correlation only 0.03 However
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-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20
Difference Between Actual and Exit Poll 2004 Bush Vote Proportion
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Dif
fere
nce
Bet
wee
n 2
004
and
200
0 B
ush
Vo
te
Pro
po
rtio
nBush Vote Proportion Comparison For The Ohio Sample Precincts
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Better Together
• Cooperation Already High Among Election Officials
• Bring in Skilled Outsiders, Statisticians. Computer Specialists, …, As You Have
• Include and Inform Critics• Make Accountability Evident
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Media and Marketing
• Approach Media Ahead of Time
• Seize this Timely Moment
• Stress New Tools, Learning Style
• Conduct Demonstration Sample Audits and Get the Word Out
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National Election Scorecard
• National Voter (Customer) Survey
• Build on 2006 Ohio Proof of Concept
• Put “Horror Stories” in Perspective
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Fully Auditable Election
• Prepare prior data ahead of time, so analysis can be real-time
• Continue to use Exit Polls but adjusting for the bias in them, if possible.
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More Examples
• Create and train election officials in new process recording and Sample Vote Verification Standards
• Make sure software is fully tested and as close to tamper proof as possible
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Many [email protected]