post-ipo analysis of russian issuers

Post-IPO analysis of Russian issuers

www.pwc.ru/capital-markets

As of 30 June 2016

This publication contains historical data on changes in stock (shares and/or depository receipts) prices, market index, liquidity and other statistical information for a selection of Russia-based listed companies.

MSCI EM index – MSCI Emerging Markets Index, also referred to as the “market” in this publication.

Change in the MSCI EM index – from the date of an IPO up untill 30 June 2016 for issuers that listed after 31 December 2004. For issuers listed prior to 1 January 2005, changes in the MSCI EM index are calculated from 1 January 2005.

Liquidity /Average liquidity –– average daily traded value of a stock on all listing platforms over the previous 12 months multiplied by the number of trading days of a listing venue in the last 12 months or since an IPO (for recently listed companies), divided by its average market capitalisation at the end of each month during the last 12 months.

Outperformer – a stock that had a higher increase or a lower decrease in price since an IPO compared to a change in the MSCI EM index.

Underperformer – a stock that had a lower increase or a higher decrease in price since an IPO compared to a change in the MSCI EM index.

Change in stock price – is defined as a change in an issuer’s stock price:

a) since an IPO for companies listed after 31 December 2004;

b) from the first business day of 2005, for companies listed prior to 1 January 2005; or

c) since a significant corporate restructuring.

Analyst coverage for dual listed companies is taken as a sum of all listing venues.

Average LiquidityDaily traded value (Ave) Х N of trading days in the last 12 months

Market capitalisation (Ave) =

This analysis contains a selection* of IPOs by Russian issuers, and therefore is not a complete list of all Russian public companies.

The analysis covers post-IPO performance in the period from the date of an IPO (or from 1 January 2005 for pre 2005 IPOs) to 30 June 2016.

This is our third issue of Post-IPO analysis of Russian issuers. Our prior issues covered the post IPO periods from IPO to 31 December 2013 and to 30 June 2015.

In this issue we also cover certain aspects regarding the impact of the economic crisis on Russian issuers' performance.

Post-IPO analysis of Russian issuersPwC 2

*Selected issuers with market capitalisation greater than USD25 mln and available offer price, current price, trading value and other data. Information was compiled from public sources, including Bloomberg, msci.com, PREQVECA and company websites and has not been independently verified by AO PricewaterhouseCoopers Audit.

At the end of 2013, 27 out of 88 Russian issuers outperformed the MSCI EM index, on average, by 120% compared to 61 issuers who underperformed by 52% over the same period.

Despite the economic crisis that began in early 2014, as of 30 June 2016, 18 out of 82 issuers have still outperformed the market by a staggering 132%.

Novatek became the best performing stock, followed by EPAM Systems and Magnit. Companies in the Retail sector performed best with Magnit as the sector leader. The Oil & Gas and Technology & Communications sectors also provided positive returns to investors.

10 companies were delisted since 31 December 2013: Uralkali/LSE (remained on MOEX), Polyus/LSE (remained on MOEX), CTC Media/NASDAQ, Kusbussenergo/MOEX, Eurasia Drilling Company/LSE, IBS Group/Deutsche Borse, Integra GK/LSE, Nomos Bank/LSE, Veropharm/MOEX, ROSE GROUP/LSE

Overview

Lenta US$1,095 million/

Retail/ January 2014/

LSE

United Wagon Company

US$180 million/Transportation &

Logistics/ April 2015/

MOEX

Credit Bank of Moscow

US$238 million/Financial Services/

June 2015/ MOEX

Only 5 IPOs were held since 31 December 2013 including:

+189%

Underperformers

12 issuersstock price increased by 189%

Outperformers

72 issuers stock price decreased by 60%

-60%

+132%

Underperformers

18 issuers’stock price increased by 132%

Outperformers

64 issuers’stock pricedecreased by 60%

(60%)

+189%

Underperformers

12 issuersstock price increased by 189%

Outperformers

72 issuers stock price decreased by 60%

-60%


Europlan US$47 million/

Financial Services/ December 2015/

MOEX

Novorossiysk Grain Plant

US$52 million/Transportation

& Logistics/ December 2015/

MOEX

Only sectors with more than 5 issuers are included in the analysis above

- number of companies (outperformers)- number of companies (underperformers)

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50%

100%

(100%)

(50%)

(150%)

0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00Averageliquidity

RetailOil & Gas

Technology &Communications

Financial services

Transportation &Logistics

Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Utilities

6 88

10

67

15

7Food &Beverage

5

0.20

Sector analysis


The best performing sectors and companies remain largely unchanged from December 2013 to June 2016. NOVATEK, EPAM and Magnit are the best in their industries and are the top-3 outperformers.

Liquidity has dropped from 2013 across all sectors, except Technology & Communications.

Average liquidity of London listed issuers was negatively affected by the economic crisis. The US listed issuers saw improved liquidity, while the liquidity in Moscow stayed relatively flat.

(0.9)

(0.6)

(0.3)

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

(90%)

(60%)

(30%)

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

180%

210%

Average change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index for the same periodAverage liquidity for Russian issuers in each listing centre

2

Number of issuersAverage liquidity in this market (last 12 months ended 30 June 2016)

0.2

57**

LSE(Premium)

LSE(GDRs)

LSE(AIM)

MoscowExchange

NASDAQ NYSE

MoscowLondonNew York

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Average liquidity in this market (last 12 months ended 31 December 2013)

365*

0.43

1.08

1.32

1

5

*Includes companies which moved up from LSE (GDRs) to LSE (Premium).** Includes issuers with dual listing on other stock exchanges.


Analysis by stock exchange

Companies listed on the US exchanges were ahead of other markets by both liquidity and post-IPO stock price change compared to change in the MSCI EM index. Historically, London was the most popular market for Russian issuers, while in recent years companies prefer Moscow Exchange.


Change in the MSCI EM index as of 30 June 2016

Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index as of 30 June 2016

Change in the MSCI EM index as of 31 December 2013

Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index as of 31 December 2013

(80%) 20% 120% 220% 320% 420% 520% 620%

Novatek

EPAM Systems

Magnit

Luxoft

Tatneft

Polyus

Polymetal International

Moscow Exchange

ALROSA

M.Video

Uralkali

Phosagro

Rusagro

United WagonCompanyCredit bank of Moscow

Yandex

Bank VozrozhdenieEuroplan

Top 18 Russian IPOs by change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index


Bottom 20 Russian IPOs by change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index

Change in the MSCI EM index asof 30 June 2016

Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index as of 30 June 2016

Change in the MSCI EM index asof 31 December 2013

Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index as of 31 December 2013

(180%) (130%) (80%) (30%) 20% 70% 120%

Petropavlovsk

RBC

Vimpelcom

Mechel

Raven Russia

Belon

Sistema

MTS

Irkut

HALS-Development

TMK

Gazprom

AFI Development

RusHydro

TGС-1

Enel Russia

Volga Gas

IRC (Petropavlovsk)

PIK Group

RUSAL

Issuer's market capitalisationas of 30 June 2016

Number of analystsas of 30 June 2016

Issuer's market capitalisationas of 31 December 2013

26 28

27 29

28 26

21

26

22

28

17

22 20

17

27

15

22

18 19

17

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Ana

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over

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Mar

ket

cap

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(U

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)

Rosneft

Gazpro

m

Sberban

k

Lukoil

Novatek

Mag

nit

VTB Bank

Tatneft

Sever

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MTS

ALROSA

NLMK

Yandex

Vimpelc

om

Meg

afon

Polymeta

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Phosagro

X5 Reta

il Gro

up

Rusal

MM

K

Top 20 Russian issuers by market capitalisation


Analysts were mainly interested in Russian issuers with a large market capitalisation, regardless of the exchange or post-IPO stock price change.

AppendixSector analysis

Retail



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services

Transportation & logistics

Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities


/ Increase/decrease in average liquidity for 12 months ended 30 June 2016 compared with 12 months ended 31 December 2013

Company name Average change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index since IPO

Average sector liquidity

Number of listed companies in sector

Average analyst coverage

Average company market capitalisation as of 30 June 2016 (USD mln)

Average company market capitalisation as of 31 December 2013 (USD mln)

Market cap change

Retail 51% 0.33 6 17 4,444 8,445 (47%)

Oil & Gas* 48% 0.37 8 18 22,995 27,206 (15%)

Technology & Communications 35% 1.14 8 17 4,721 9,300 (49%)

Financial services (9%) 0.61 10 11 7,199 13,068 (45%)

Metals & Mining (22%) 0.27 15 9 3,846 3,504 10%

Transportation & Logistics (33%) 0.26 7 4 673 1,743 (61%)

Food & Beverage** (34%) 0.20 5 3 578 415 39%

Real Estate (63%) 0.09 7 3 793 969 (18%)

Utilities (67%) 0.17 6 5 1,308 2,322 (44%)

Average (10%) 0.38 8 10 5,173 7,441 (30%)

Company name Exchange Listing date Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index since IPO

Change in stock price since IPO

Analyst coverage

Liquidity Market capitalisa-tion as of 30 June 2016 (USD mln)

Market capitalisation as of 31 December 2013 (USD mln)

Market cap change

Magnit LSE (GDRs) 15.04.08 319% 291% 26 0.72 15,707 31,300 (50%)

M.Video MOEX 01.11.07 115% 76% 8 0.13 848 1,629 (48%)

DIXY Group MOEX 18.05.07 (2%) (20%) 18 0.16 583 1,539 (62%)

Lenta LSE (GDRs) 28.02.14 (13%) (28%) 17 0.34 3,503 4,238* (17%)

O’KEY GROUP LSE (GDRs) 02.11.10 (53%) (79%) 13 0.16 619 3,202 (81%)

X5 Retail Group LSE (GDRs) 11.05.05 (58%) (7%) 18 0.45 5,404 4,554 19%

Average 51% 39% 17 0.33 4,444 7,744 (43%)

Median (8%) (13%) 18 0.25 2,176 3,720 (42%)

* For comparison purposes, market capitalisation as of IPO date is used instead of 31 December 2013

* Including Oil & Gas services sector** Including Agricultural sector

–



Analyst coverage

Liquidity Market capitalisation as of 30 June 2016 (USD mln)


Market cap change

NOVATEK LSE (GDRs) 21.07.05 470% 509% 28 0.29 30,970 41,567 (25%)

Tatneft LSE (GDRs) 13.12.96 208% 260% 26 0.46 11,566 13,881 (17%)

LUKOIL LSE (GDRs) 04.12.02 (14%) 38% 29 0.88 35,528 53,118 (33%)

Exillon Energy LSE (Premium) 14.12.09 (21%) (36%) 1 0.19 208 460 (55%)

Rosneft LSE (GDRs) 14.07.06 (45%) (32%) 26 0.27 54,263 80,705 (33%)

C.A.T. oil Deutsche Borse 04.05.06 (51%) (55%) 2 0.10 363 1,362 (73%)

Volga Gas LSE (AIM) 20.04.07 (71%) (86%) 1 0.08 45 133 (66%)

Gazprom LSE (GDRs) 22.10.96 (88%) (36%) 28 0.65 51,016 101,204 (50%)

Average 48% 70% 18 0.37 22,995 36,554 (37%)

Median (33%) (34%) 26 0.28 21,268 27,724 (23%)



Analyst coverage



Market cap change

EPAM Systems NYSE 07.02.12 457% 436% 17 2.22 3,258 1,625 101%

Luxoft NYSE 26.06.13 213% 206% 11 2.23 1,711 1,244 38%

Yandex NASDAQ 23.05.11 15% (13%) 20 2.28 6,976 14,061 (50%)

Mail.ru Group LSE (GDRs) 05.11.10 (6%) (34%) 17 0.44 4,005 9,326 (57%)

MegaFon LSE (GDRs) 28.11.12 (31%) (48%) 27 0.30 6,448 20,770 (69%)

MTS NYSE 29.06.00 (92%) (40%) 28 0.96 8,555 22,348 (62%)

VimpelCom NYSE 15.11.96 (133%) (81%) 17 0.30 6,786 22,732 (70%)

RBC MOEX 18.04.02 (143%) (91%) – 0.38 29 63 (54%)

Average 35% 42% 17 1.14 4,721 11,521 (59%)

Median (18%) (37%) 17 0.70 5,227 11,693 (55%)

Oil & Gas

Technology & Communications



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

UtilitiesPost-IPO analysis of Russian issuersPwC 10

Company name Exchange Listing date

Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index since IPO


Analyst coverage



Market cap change

Moscow Exchange MOEX 15.02.13 127% 105% 14 0.77 4,010 4,668 (14%)

Credit bank of Moscow MOEX 30.06.15 24% 10% – 0.15 1,486 1,766* (16%)

Bank Vozrozhdenie MOEX 11.05.07 6% (11%) 5 0.11 239 319 (25%)

Europlan MOEX 10.12.15 5% 9% – 0.66 223 187* 19%

QIWI NASDAQ 03.05.13 (2%) (23%) 12 1.51 792 2,917 (73%)

Sberbank LSE (GDRs) 18.09.12 (10%) (28%) 27 1.70 47,006 67,891 (31%)

Bank Saint Petersburg MOEX 01.11.07 (23%) (61%) 10 0.08 356 559 (36%)

TCS Group LSE (GDRs) 22.10.13 (51%) (72%) 11 0.19 931 2,845 (67%)

VTB Bank LSE (GDRs) 10.05.07 (63%) (81%) 21 0.47 13,310 19,408 (31%)

Sistema LSE (GDRs) 09.02.05 (106%) (56%) 14 0.41 3,633 15,498 (77%)

Average (9%) (21%) 11 0.61 7,199 11,606 (38%)

Median (6%) (26%) 12 0.44 1,209 2,881 (58%)

Financial Services

Transportation & Logistics



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities


–




Analyst coverage



Market cap change

United Wagon Company MOEX 29.04.15 27% 4% 1 0.79 1,206 76* 1,482%

TransContainer LSE (GDRs) 09.11.10 (15%) (44%) 1 0.22 621 1,251 (50%)

Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port

LSE (GDRs) 02.11.07 (37%) (75%) 3 0.08 1,233 1,605 (23%)

Globaltrans LSE (GDRs) 30.04.08 (40%) (70%) 11 0.45 701 2,842 (75%)

Novorossyisk Grain Plant MOEX 15.12.15 (46%) (39%) – 0.12 329 444* (26%)

Global Ports LSE (GDRs) 24.06.11 (56%) (81%) 8 0.05 535 2,671 (80%)

FESCO MOEX 03.08.07 (62%) (86%) 1 0.09 87 348 (75%)

Average (33%) (56%) 4 0.26 673 1,320 (49%)

Median (40%) (70%) 1 0.12 621 1,251 (50%)



–

–

–

Metals & Mining



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities


* The company moved up to the Premium segment of the LSE subsequent to the IPO (GDRs) on the Standard segment. The listing date is the date of the initial offering. ** IPO (GDRs) in 2005. For the purpose of this analysis performance is tracked from the move up to the Premium segment of the LSE in 2011. *** The company moved up to the Standard segment of the LSE subsequent to the IPO on AIM. The listing date is the date of the initial offering.




Analyst coverage



Market cap change

Polyus MOEX 15.05.06 194% 191% – 0.01 14,000 4,495 211%

Polymetal International LSE (Premium)* 07.02.07 169% 158% 15 0.30 5,921 3,710 60%

ALROSA MOEX 28.10.13 118% 98% 17 0.29 7,981 7,813 2%

Severstal LSE (GDRs) 08.11.06 (11%) (12%) 22 0.50 9,165 8,277 11%

NLMK LSE (GDRs) 09.12.05 (31%) (10%) 22 0.29 7,791 10,123 (23%)

EVRAZ LSE (Premium)** 07.11.11 (40%) (57%) 18 0.38 2,584 2,730 (5%)

MMK LSE (GDRs) 24.04.07 (45%) (61%) 17 0.07 4,152 2,576 61%

Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company

MOEX 30.04.10 (50%) (69%) 1 0.03 91 165 (45%)

Raspadskaya MOEX 09.11.06 (51%) (52%) 2 0.59 313 644 (51%)

Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant LSE (GDRs) 07.11.06 (62%) (64%) – 0.01 331 187 77%

RUSAL HKEX 22.01.10 (63%) (79%) 19 0.03 4,523 4,507 0%

IRC (Petropavlovsk) HKEX 13.10.10 (68%) (93%) – 0.23 98 456 (78%)

Belon MOEX 05.06.06 (107%) (100%) – 0.06 77 88 (12%)

Mechel NYSE 28.10.04 (129%) (77%) 5 0.76 350 1,066 (67%)

Petropavlovsk LSE (Standard)*** 29.04.02 (151%) (99%) 4 0.49 320 238 34%

Average (22%) (22%) 9 0.27 3,846 3,138 23%

Median (50%) (61%) 5 0.29 2,584 2,576 0%

–

Real Estate

Utilities



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities


* The company moved up to the Premium segment of the LSE subsequent to the IPO (GDRs) on the Standard segment. The listing date is the date of the initial offering. ** The company moved up to the Premium segment of the LSE subsequent to the IPO on AIM. The listing date is the date of the initial offering.



Analyst coverage



Market cap change

TGC-7 MOEX 14.03.08 (56%) (81%) – 0.01 371 1,710 (78%)

Federal Grid Company LSE (GDRs) 28.03.11 (57%) (85%) 5 0.46 2,804 3,421 (18%)

OGK-2 MOEX 28.09.07 (61%) (93%) 4 0.15 482 852 (43%)

Enel Russia MOEX 10.11.06 (74%) (76%) 8 0.03 371 1,201 (69%)

TGC-1 MOEX 30.03.07 (75%) (87%) 4 0.07 303 769 (61%)

RusHydro LSE (GDRs) 06.07.09 (80%) (72%) 10 0.31 3,515 6,667 (47%)

Average (67%) (82%) 5 0.17 1,308 2,437 (46%)

Median (68%) (83%) 5 0.11 427 1,456 (71%)



Analyst coverage



Market cap change

World Trade Center MOEX 29.10.07 (8%) (45%) – 0.00 169 354 (52%)

Etalon Group LSE (GDRs) 15.04.11 (35%) (65%) 10 0.22 714 1,548 (54%)

LSR Group LSE (GDRs) 08.11.07 (44%) (81%) 9 0.18 1,445 2,156 (33%)

PIK Group LSE (GDRs) 31.05.07 (66%) (84%) 4 0.05 2,569 1,532 68%

AFI Development LSE (Premium)* 03.05.07 (84%) (99%) – 0.01 120 799 (85%)

HALS-Development LSE (GDRs) 03.11.06 (92%) (92%) – 0.02 202 247 (18%)

Raven Russia LSE (Premium)** 29.07.05 (116%) (79%) – 0.17 332 735 (55%)

Average (63%) (78%) 3 0.09 793 1,053 (25%)

Median (66%) (81%) 0 0.05 332 799 (58%)

–

–

Other sectors


Company name Industry Exchange Listing date Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index since IPO


Analyst coverage



Market cap change

Uralkali Chemicals & Fertilisers MOEX 20.11.2007 78% 45% 14 0.20 8,026 15,620 (49%)

PhosAgro Chemicals & Fertilisers LSE (GDRs) 13.07.2011 32% 5% 22 0.28 5,731 3,802 51%

Protek Group Pharmaceuticals MOEX 27.04.2010 (2%) (22%) – 0.04 659 807 (18%)

Acron Chemicals & Fertilisers LSE (GDRs) 05.08.2008 (16%) (34%) 13 0.05 2,392 1,281 87%

Mostotrest Engineering & Construction MOEX 02.11.2010 (25%) (51%) 2 0.13 414 1,142 (64%)

MD Medical Group Healthcare LSE (GDRs) 12.10.2012 (29%) (46%) 6 0.06 487 849 (43%)

SOLLERS Industrial Manufacturing MOEX 22.04.2005 (50%) 3% 4 0.06 232 887 (74%)

Pharmstandard Pharmaceuticals LSE (GDRs) 03.05.2007 (59%) (75%) – 0.03 561 1,499 (63%)

TMK Industrial Manufacturing LSE (GDRs) 31.10.2006 (90%) (87%) 11 0.29 677 2,764 (76%)

Irkut Industrial Manufacturing MOEX 26.03.2004 (92%) (40%) – 0.04 175 198 (12%)

Average (25%) (30%) 7 0.12 1,935 2,885 (33%)

Median (27%) (37%) 5 0.06 610 1,211 (50%)

Food & Beverage



Retail

Oil & Gas


Financial services


Metals & Mining

Real Estate

Food & beverage

Utilities




Analyst coverage



Market cap change

Rusagro LSE (GDRs) 08.04.11 30% (1%) 8 0.53 2,023 761 166%

Cherkizovo Group LSE (GDRs) 11.05.06 (36%) (42%) 3 0.21 587 811 (28%)

Synergy MOEX 15.11.07 (41%) (77%) 1 0.00 154 567 (73%)

Russian Aquaculture MOEX 15.04.10 (59%) (80%) – 0.01 43 82 (48%)

Black Earth Farming NASDAQ OMX 19.12.07 (62%) (93%) 1 0.25 84 212 (61%)

Average (34%) (59%) 3 0.20 578 487 19%

Median (41%) (77%) 1 0.21 154 567 (73%)

Company name Industry Exchange Listing date Change in stock price compared to change in the MSCI EM index since IPO


Analyst coverage



Market cap change

Uralkali Chemicals & Fertilisers MOEX 20.11.2007 78% 45% 14 0.20 8,026 15,620 (49%)

PhosAgro Chemicals & Fertilisers LSE (GDRs) 13.07.2011 32% 5% 22 0.28 5,731 3,802 51%

Protek Group Pharmaceuticals MOEX 27.04.2010 (2%) (22%) – 0.04 659 807 (18%)

Acron Chemicals & Fertilisers LSE (GDRs) 05.08.2008 (16%) (34%) 13 0.05 2,392 1,281 87%

Mostotrest Engineering & Construction MOEX 02.11.2010 (25%) (51%) 2 0.13 414 1,142 (64%)

MD Medical Group Healthcare LSE (GDRs) 12.10.2012 (29%) (46%) 6 0.06 487 849 (43%)

SOLLERS Industrial Manufacturing MOEX 22.04.2005 (50%) 3% 4 0.06 232 887 (74%)

Pharmstandard Pharmaceuticals LSE (GDRs) 03.05.2007 (59%) (75%) – 0.03 561 1,499 (63%)

TMK Industrial Manufacturing LSE (GDRs) 31.10.2006 (90%) (87%) 11 0.29 677 2,764 (76%)

Irkut Industrial Manufacturing MOEX 26.03.2004 (92%) (40%) – 0.04 175 198 (12%)

Average (25%) (30%) 7 0.12 1,935 2,885 (33%)

Median (27%) (37%) 5 0.06 610 1,211 (50%)

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© 2016 AO PricewaterhouseCoopers Audit. All rights reserved.

1207.07.2016

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post-ipo analysis of russian issuers

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