post traditional studetns: a review of the data

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Post-Traditional Students: A Review of the Data 2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved. 1 Carol Aslanian Senior Vice President, Aslanian Market Research

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CALEM 2014 Presentation: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data, Carol Aslanian, Aslanian Market Research/EducationDynamics. During this presentation, new data will be represented on the demands and preferences of adult and other "post-traditional" undergraduate and graduate students. Among he topics covered in the presentation are: the degrees and certificates in highest demand, the formats most desired, the services expected, the marketing channels they most frequently consult and what they look like demographically.

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  • Post-Traditional Students: A Review of the Data 2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.1 Carol Aslanian Senior Vice President, Aslanian Market Research
  • 2006 17.8M 2008 19.1M For-Profit Sector Share: 13% (BMO Cap.) 2010 21.0M 2012 20.2M Overall Higher Education Enrollment (Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount) 2 (NCES Fall Enrollment) 2013 19.9M Growth trend flattened beginning 2011 Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013 Adult students (25+) make up about 50% of all higher education enrollments. Noncredit: 20m+ Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • 2020 23.9M 2016 22.5M and whats to come????? 3 (NCES Fall Enrollment) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 ? ?
  • 2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved. 4 50% of college students finish in four years 50% do not (DOE)
  • US Higher Ed Enrollment Trends Growth by Age Group 2010 2021 18 - 24 years: 10% 25 - 34 years: 20% 35+ years: 25% Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 5Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • Percent Age 25+ Undergraduate 31% Graduate 81% Total 42% Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50% 12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment. Higher Education Enrollments Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 Source: NCES Fall Enrollment 6 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share 2013 2.58m students (13% share of all postsecondary enrollments) 2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection) **Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)** Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 (degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions) 7Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • Feeder High School Graduates
  • High School Graduation Trends (National) WiCHE 9
  • High School Graduation Trends (Regional) Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028 WiCHE 10
  • High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education? In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students on college campuses One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds (more in California?) Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school Aslanian Market Research 11Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • What does this mean for your Enrollments? Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to the traditional higher education market Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment Aslanian Market Research 12Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • Who Are College Students Today? or 13Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • The Changing Profile of a College Student 20% of all undergraduates today are traditional students 18-24 living on campus attend full-time 80% of all undergraduates today are post-traditional working live off-campus financially independent often first-generation Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking Traditional Study: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc) 14 Aslanian Market ResearchCopyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids 25% 28% 58% 63% 69% Open a web browser Make a mobile phone call Play a basic computer game Turn a computer on/off Operate a computer mouse Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can 15Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014
  • Market Trends in Online Education 2.3m 3.5m 4.6m 6.1m 9.9m 10.8m* 780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m 3.3m 3.4m* 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est) Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online * 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth (Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010) Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012; Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 16
  • Future of Online Enrollments 2012 15% of all enrollments 2016 20% of all enrollments (est.) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 17
  • 2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved. 18 Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing) is 3-4 times the rate of classroom enrollment
  • Adults as Students 2012-2013
  • Adult Students: Snapshot Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations nationwide Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 20
  • General Personal Characteristics Majority are female Getting younger Majority are non-minority More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study Most often finance their own study Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 21
  • Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses Study in career fields Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and, Health Professions Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less General Learning Patterns Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 22
  • Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%) Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study Prefer multiple learning options class/hybrid/online General Learning Patterns (cont.) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 23
  • Personal Characteristics at time of enrollment
  • 32%- Bachelors plus Education-Level: Undergraduate 20% 20% 18% 9% 21% 4% 5% 1% 1% High school diploma / GED One or two years of college, but no Associates degree Associates degree Three or four years of college, but no Bachelors degree Bachelors degree Some graduate courses but no Masters degree Masters degree Some graduate courses beyond a Masters degree, but no Doctorate Doctorate Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 25
  • Education-Level: Graduate 57% 11% 25% 4% 3% Bachelors degree Some graduate courses but no Masters degree Masters degree Some graduate courses beyond a Masters degree, but no Doctorate Doctorate32%- Masters plus Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 26
  • Age at Time of Study Undergraduate Graduate 25-29 24 27 30-39 26 26 40-49 20 17 50-59 17 18 60 and older 7 5 Median 32 Years 33 Years Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 27
  • Gender Undergraduate Graduate Female 71% 67% Male 28 32 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 28
  • Ethnicity Undergraduate Graduate White 77% 79% African-American 7 5 Asian or Pacific Islander 6 9 Hispanic 5 3 Native American 1 1 Other 2 1 29
  • Employment Status at Time of Study Undergraduate Graduate Employed full time 56% 69% Employed part time 19 16 Not employed 19 13 Retired 4 2 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 30
  • Income at Time of Study Undergraduate Graduate Under $25,000 15% 10% $25,000 - $39,999 16 11 $40,000 - $54,999 15 11 $55,000 - $69,999 13 13 $70,000 - $84,999 11 12 $85,000 - $99,999 9 12 $100,000 - $114,999 8 9 $115,000 - $129,000 4 6 $130,000 - $149,000 3 5 More than $150,000 5 12 Median income $55,000 $70,000 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 31
  • How do they pay for courses?
  • Course Payment Method Undergraduate Graduate Personal funds 61% 65% Student loans 38 34 Pell Grants or other federal/state/local government grants and scholarships 28 14 Tuition reimbursement 17 28 Personal loans 8 10 Private scholarships 7 9 Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10 Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2 Other 3 2 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 33
  • What credentials do they seek?
  • Credential - Undergraduate Enrolled in a degree program 32% Courses for transfer to a Bachelors degree program 21% Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional area 27% Individual Courses 20% Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 35
  • Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate Associate 16% Bachelors 84% Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 36
  • Credential - Graduate Enrolled in a degree program 59%Courses for transfer to a Bachelors degree program 17% Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional area 24% Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 37
  • Degree Level Pursued- Graduate Masters 81% Doctorate 19% Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 38
  • Full-time or part- time study?
  • Full-Time/Part-time Study Full-time 52% Part-time 48% Undergraduate Full-time 45% Part-time 55% Graduate Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 40
  • Do they prefer day, evening, or weekend study if taking a classroom course?
  • Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred 3% 27% 16% 44% 5% 5% 2% 17% 12% 56% 8% 5% Weekday early mornings Weekday mornings Weekday afternoons Weekday evenings Weekends No classroom courses - online only Undergraduate Graduate Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 42
  • Are they attracted to hybrid and online study?
  • Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate 76% 33% 44%43% 43% 26% Classroom Hybrid Online Only Actual* Preferred * Respondents may give more than one response Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 44
  • Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate 72% 32% 40% 45% 33% 22% Classroom Hybrid Online Only Actual* Preferred * Respondents may give more than one response Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 45
  • Do they prefer accelerated courses?
  • Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 15 weeks or more 14 weeks 13 weeks 12 weeks 11 weeks 10 weeks 9 weeks 8 weeks 7 weeks 6 weeks 5 weeks 4 weeks 3 weeks 2 weeks 1 week Preferred Actual Median Preferred: 10 Weeks Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 47
  • Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 15 weeks or more 14 weeks 13 weeks 12 weeks 11 weeks 10 weeks 9 weeks 8 weeks 7 weeks 6 weeks 5 weeks 4 weeks 3 weeks 2 weeks 1 week Preferred Actual Median Preferred: 10 Weeks Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 48
  • What subjects do they most often study?
  • Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand) Undergrad Degrees Business STEM Social Sciences Health Professions Humanities/Liberal Arts Education Graduate Degrees Business Education Health Professions Social Sciences STEM Humanities/Liberal Arts Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 50
  • How do they become aware of your college during their search?
  • Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate Internet Search Engines College Search Sites Mail to Home Emails Television Ads Ads on Websites Radio Ads Newspaper Ads Billboards Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5) 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 52
  • Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate Internet Search Engines College Search Sites Mail to Home Emails Television Ads Ads on Websites Radio Ads Newspaper Ads Billboards Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5) 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 53
  • 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 Podcasts Blogs Social Media Fan Pages Faculty/student Chats Online Open House Graduate Undergraduate Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 54
  • What Social Media do Adults Use? 15% 2% 8% 26% 38% 79% 15% 4% 5% 25% 50% 78% None Other MySpace Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Graduate Undergraduate Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 55
  • 2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved. 56 30% make NO direct contact with college until they submit their application.
  • Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College Current or Former Students The Colleges Website Friend, Family, Co-workers Radio Ads Newspaper Ads Television Ads Direct Mail Other 29% 23 19 10 5 5 4 5 Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 57
  • Issues And Opportunities
  • Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants Expanding demand for online format Resistance among some academics for online Issues Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 59
  • Importance of local/ground presence for online delivery Education matched to todays jobs Cost and reputation matter most Rising importance of brand Issues Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 60
  • Increasing acquisition costs/limited marketing budgets Electronic marketing and recruitment Issues Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 61
  • Younger adult students Multiple formats are essential: classroom/hybrid/online Customer Service/24-7 Operations Time to completion Issues Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 62
  • Opportunities Stackable certificates/badges Declining share of for-profit institutions Adult student market growth 24/7 learning options Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 63
  • Opportunities Non-degree credentials Hybrid/blended and online learning Younger students online Rising number of traditional students acting like adults Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 64
  • Low residence programs Growth of non-credit career/professional development market Continuous change in the economy/job market Opportunities Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 65
  • Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs Age no longer predicts learning patterns International adult student demand for online education Opportunities Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 66
  • Thank you! Evaluation code: aslaniankeynote Questions? Aslanian Market Research [email protected] Office 201.377.3321 Mobile 917.216.1969 Fax 201.653.2970 www.educationdynamics.com adultstudents.educationdynamics.com Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014