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Web Page: www.jamesgregory.org. poster. James Gregory Public Lectures. Future Programme:. 1. April 30 -- Kenneth Miller “Life: Creation or Evolution?” October 29 2009 -- Keith Ward "God, Science and the New Atheism" February 18, 2010 -- David Wilkinson "God and the Big Bang” - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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poster
Web Page: www.jamesgregory.org
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James Gregory Public Lectures
Future Programme:
1. April 30 -- Kenneth Miller“Life: Creation or Evolution?”
2. October 29 2009 -- Keith Ward "God, Science and the New Atheism"
3. February 18, 2010 -- David Wilkinson "God and the Big Bang”
4. April 29, 2010 -- Bill Newsome "The Mind: Brain or Spirit?"
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John ray pamphletBy John Houghton--for sale atBookstore
-Or downloadfrom web site
John Ray Initiative www.jri.org.uk
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book
For sale atbookstore
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Global Warming -is it real and what can we do?
John Houghton
James Gregory LectureUniversity of St Andrews
19 February 2009
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SPACESHIP EARTH
• Spaceship Economy
or
• Cowboy Economy
after Prof Kenneth Boulding 1966
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Sustainability
• Not cheating our children
• Not cheating our neighbours
• Not cheating the rest of creation
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The Science of Global Warming
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The underlying physics of global warming
(known for 200 years)
Solar radiation
Long-wave radiation
The Greenhouse Effectjp10
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Changes in CO2 over 10,000 yearsfrom ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red
line)
From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
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Scenarios of Future Changes in Climate
From IPCC AR4 2007
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Some main impacts of climate change
• More intense heat waves
• Sea level rise
• More intense hydrological cycle
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European Heatwave 2003 - JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90
From Technical Summary , IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
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European heat-wave 2003 - 20,000 died
extremelyrare
event
(Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336,
Stott et al 2004, Nature 432 610-614)
Swiss Temperature Series for June-August 1864-2003
Analysis shows it likely that most of the risk of the event is due to increase in greenhouse gases - also likely that
- by 2050, average summer
- by 2100, a cool summerjp16
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Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
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More rain for some; less rain for othersJun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regionsFrom Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
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Floods and Droughts - the most damaging of world
disasters
Over the period 1975-2002:
• Over 200,000 lives lost through flooding from rainfall &2.2 billion people affected
• Over 500,000 lives lost due to drought & 1.3 billion affected
Jonkman, S.N. 2005 Natural Hazards 34, 151-175
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Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century
• Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC
• Rise in average sea level for many centuries
• More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts
• Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down (complete melt down gives 7m of sea level
rise)• Poor nations worst affected
• Many millions of environmental refugees
• Loss of millions of species
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How sure are we about Global Warming?
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www.ipcc.ch
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Founded in 1988
• Many hundreds of scientists involved from different countries & ideologies
• Under discipline of science - honesty, accuracy & balance
• In June 2005, Academies of Science of all G8 countries with India, China & Brazil, issued a joint statement,
“Global response to climate change” endorsing the international scientific consensus of the IPCC.
- a remarkably strong endorsement from the world’s top scientific community
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What can we do aboutGlobal Warming?
International Action
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UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Rio de Janeiro : June 1992
ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE
The ultimate objective of this Convention
.... is to achieve, .… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … the level to be chosen should enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.•
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Stabilization Target of 2ºC above preindustrial
• First proposed by EU Council in 1996
• Reiterated by Chancellor Merkel at G8 in 2007
• Widely urged by many at Bali Conference 2007
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions
jp31
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions
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from IEA WEO 2007
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What Action?
• Halt Deforestation
• More efficient energy generation & use
• Carbon capture and storage underground
• Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions
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Concentrated Solar Power
Thousands of mirrors focus sunlight on to gas or steam
engines to make
electricity
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Energy from Biomass & Waste • From Waste - domestic and agricultural• From Biocrops to power stations• From Biocrops to Biofuels
• Local rather than centralized energy so valuable in rural areas
• Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs.from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6
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Local energy for rural areas in the developing world
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Car batteryRefrigerator
T.V.
Light Solar cell array
~1 m2
~100 W peak power
Local solar energy supply
+ -
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from IEA ETP 2008
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The International Challenge
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per Capita CO2e Emissions in 2004
from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007
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Climate Change: the Moral Imperative
• Growth of wealth in rich world through cheap coal, oil, gas
• No realization of damage caused, especially to poor countries
• Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist poor countries develop sustainably
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Are we good at Sharing?• Yes - in our families
• Yes - in our communities
• Yes - in our national social programs
• No - internationally with poorer nations - net flow of wealth from poor to rich
We have to learn to SHARE
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From everyone who has been given much,
much will be demanded
Jesus in Luke 12 v 48
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How long have we got?
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Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to
2050
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Investment in Energy to 2050
• Under business-as usual ~ 6 trillion $/year
• With emissions reductions under 2 deg target ~ extra 1 $trillion /year or 1% of world GDP
• Extra investment recovered through savings on fuel
» from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
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The world’s energy system is at a crossroads
Current global energy..trends..are
unsustainable
There’s still time to change the road we’re on
What’s needed is nothing short of an energy revolution
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008Executive Summary
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Action on Climate Change
“Mostly we know what to do, but we lack the will to do it”
Sir Crispin Tickellin the Doomsday Letters
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Reasons for optimism
- Commitment of scientific community
- Necessary technology available
- God’s commitment to his creation
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Intelligence behind universe?
Where do ‘laws’ of nature, awe & wonder come from?
‘a deeply religious non-believer’
Albert Einstein
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God is Creator
Science is God’s science
God is our partner in caring for Creation
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“Noone made a greater
mistake than he who did
nothing because he could do
so little”
Edmund Burke
Everybody can do something
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Caring for the Earth – a Scientific, Moral & Spiritual Challenge