Author: Mark Crowley School of Education

Postgraduate Initial Teacher Training Allocation & recruitment

Aims

Review of recruitment and key changes to the census data.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model

Identifying need and the current Teacher Supply model

Consider UCAS applications – predictions and limitations.

Part 2

Part 1

Sources of data

Teacher Supply Model • total teacher need for state-funded nursery, primary &

secondary and numbers leaving

• the entrant need to meet this target

• proportion of the entrants whom are likely to be Newly Qualified Teachers

• hence the postgraduate Initial Teacher Training numbers required

www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model

TSM teacher need: Physics

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27

The model for Physics includes details such as the predicted female:male ratio and age distributions:

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54 55-59 60+

9,977 11,232

121 female Phys teachers over-60.

TSM entrant need: Physics

Example calculation for 2017-18 Target for 2017-18 10,504 Census estimate 16-17 10,438

Projected “wastage” -846 Retirements -315 Deaths in service -6 Entrants needed 1,234

NQT needed 623 611 PG + 12 UG

How bizarre! To calculate NQT need, statistics based on all secondary subjects are then used…. • 15% new to state sector • 34% returners • 51% NQTs

• 85% full time • 15% part time

TSM attrition rates

The TSM considers the target of trainees needed from the likelihood of these gaining QTS and then moving on to NQT in state schools.

ITT Target

x %

completion

y %

employment

Gaining QTS NQT need

Department for Education

611 759 942

Biology 1,074 90% 92% 78% 912 78% 84% 85% 743

Chemistry 879 86% 88% 85% 756 77% 77% 94% 634 Physics 942 82% 87% 78% 759 76% 82% 85% 611 81%

81% (65%)

TSM attrition rates: Science

The DfE's model incorporates slightly different attrition rates:

2015-16

Biology 1,178 90% 89% 89% 1,058 72% 79% 81% 803

Chemistry 1,053 85% 90% 90% 919 70% 75% 77% 669 Physics 1,055 82% 87% 87% 887 71% 73% 75% 646

2016-17

84%

73% (61%)

HEI SCITT SD HEI SCITT SD

NQT entrant

QTS need

Subject PG ITT Completion

Rate PG Post-ITT

Employment Rate PG ITT Trainee need

942

TSM: issues with the model

1,055 1,055

The model of a lower ITT trainee need for 2016-17, compared to 2015-16, has actually been ignored.

How bizarre! Attrition rates are weighted according to % by route. Global values are used rather than subject specific ones.

School Direct 42%

HEI 48%

Sources of data

2015-16 Allocations https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/initial-teacher-training-allocations-for-academic-year-2015-to-2016 Main tables: SFR32/2013

2015-16 Census* https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2015-to-2016 Main tables: SFR46/2015

*Provisional recruitment to initial teacher training programmes in England in the academic year 2015 to 2016.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model

Ministerial comments

"I'm delighted that for the first time the majority of teachers are being trained on school-led routes in the classroom from day one and learning from the best teachers."

Nick Gibb MP http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-34866850

Who is to blame for our education system slipping down the international rankings? The answer is the academics in the education faculties of universities. Nick Gibb MP The Guardian (2014)

Teaching unions aren't the problem – universities are Nick Gibb http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/23/teaching-unions-arent-problem-universities-schools-minister

Initial allocation of 2160 places

HEI 40%

SCITT 7%

SD Tuition 37%

Salaried 15%

TF 2%

DfE target 1055 (49%)

Physics 2015-16

TeachFirst is now included in data

HEI and SCITT previously combined into one Provider total

By including TeachFirst in the overall totals, a key NCTL aim has been met.

“In the 2016-17 academic year, we want more than half of PG-ITT to be led by schools.”

HEI 31%

SCITT 11%

SD Tuition 33%

Salaried 20%

TF 4%

Initial allocation of 1370 places

DfE target 1055 (77%)

Chemistry 2015-16

HEI 47%

SCITT 8%

SD Tuition 23%

Salaried 9%

TF 12%

Initial allocation of 1530 places

DfE target 1180 (77%)

Biology 2015-16 Initial allocation of 2170 places

There is no target for the number of trainee teachers to be recruited to the School Direct scheme. The Department for Education aims to recruit in line with the number of trainees needed across all routes.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2015-05-27/32/

Nick Gibb MP

Pri

mar

y n

eed

11,489

0

When is a target not a target?

Presentation given by Greg Burke (NCTL) to explain the methodology for changing 2016-17 allocations. To flexibly increase ITT recruitment, the idea of controlling (ring fencing) is laid out.

http://www.ucet.ac.uk/downloads/7060-C12-Greg-Burke-(NCTL)-Teacher-education-policy,-including-NCTL-recruitment-controls.pptx

Teach First allocation = 507

School Direct (salaried) recruitment

level = 1,849

School-led fee minimum recruitment

level = 4,135

HEI recruitment

Minimum recruitment levels

ITT subject

2016/17 academic year

Estimate of trainee need

Teach First allocation

SD (salaried)

recruit level

SD+SCITT min recruit

level

Biology 1,178 190 80 316

Chemistry 1,053 60 95 393

Computing 723 30 51 215

Physics 1,055 50 86 264

Effectively “ring fenced” spaces for 400 school-led trainees = 25% over last years recruitment (322)

So how are we doing for the 2016-17 academic year?

In order to answer this, we need to first look at trends over the last couple of years.

BUT there have been problems with the data…

Physics applications

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 EoC

Physics – month by month 2014-15 App

licat

ions

DfE Census

Holding offer

Conditional

Placed

More on census than applied! Unlikely to be

deferred SKE entry

UCAS vs DfE Census

Gen Science Biology

Chemistry

Physics

Total

Subject

835

638

756

2229

Total new entrants

750

730

560

2040

Placed

Department for Education

FoI: 2015-0016321 CRM:0810001 for raw data.

Differences could not be explained by either UCAS or NCTL. We suggested UCAS was being circumvented but were told by the NCTL that this was unlikely.

Publication of requested data

To prevent the identity of any trainee being disclosed cell values less than five have been marked with a "*”

Did not request the identity of providers and suggested this

could be removed.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 EoC

Physics – month by month 2015-16 App

licat

ions

DfE Census

Census now makes sense against

UCAS data

Recruitment controls 2016-17

3. Use of recruitment controls UCAS requirement We require that all lead schools, SCITTs and HEIs join the UCAS teacher training scheme (UTT) and use this system to record recruitment activity. This is an essential requirement and no exceptions will be considered. 5. Funding The bursary cost and liability for… any trainees recruited outside of the UCAS teacher training system will be borne by the lead school, SCITT or HEI

Art, or Art and Design 40 430 50 1,410 1,920

Biology 70 760 80 2,440 3,340

Business Education 10 150 20 580 750

Chemistry 40 500 60 1,710 2,310

Chinese 0 20 0 50 60

Citizenship 0 40 20 140 190

Classics 0 40 0 140 180

Communication and Media Studies 0 30 0 100 130

Computer Studies 20 250 40 900 1,200

Dance and Performance 10 120 10 340 480

Design and Technology 20 280 20 770 1,090

Design and Technology (Food) 10 120 10 310 450

Design and Technology (Product Design) 10 100 10 310 420 Design and Technology (Systems and Control) 10 70 10 180 260

Design and Technology (Textiles) 10 120 10 310 450

2014-15 Recruitment - March

www.ucas.com/sites/default/files/utt_publicstats_application_18apr2016_report_b.pdf

Subject Placed Conditional placed

Holding offer Other All states

Single + Combination

Report B: UCAS Teacher Training Monday 18 April 2016

UCAS Physics applicants 2016-17

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

Undergraduate courses

Seed-funding (up to £10k) was offered by the NCTL to support the rapid development/expansion of undergraduate physics with QTS degree courses commencing in 2016/17 Trainees on such courses will benefit from a new £9,000 bursary in their final (professional) year.

Physics UG + QTS 2016-17

Established courses have been reduced. New opt-in courses

counted in allocation. Do not need to take Skills

Test until just before QTS yr

Physics & Maths with QTS

ITT 2013-14

SKE - numbers

Final thoughts

How has the implementation of UCAS changed recruitment? (application numbers, interview time, conversion to places) How has the bursary impacted on recruitment (quality and quantity) How can we improve completion and employment rates? (why do we have a 63% success rate?)

Contact details

Mark Crowley Lecturer in Science Education Nottingham Trent University mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk 0115 848 8064