potashcorp - 2014 q2 earnings

12
PotashCorp.com Q2 2014 Conference Call July 24, 2014

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Page 1: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q2 2014 Conference CallJuly 24, 2014

Page 2: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#2

Page 3: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

Second-quarter 2014 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.56 per share1; surpass upper end of guidance range

• Cash provided by operating activities of $788 million

• Strong potash volumes and improving realizations (up $13/mt from first-quarter 2014)

• Nitrogen gross margin of $304 million; second-highest quarterly total in our history

• Completed repurchase program totaling 43.3 million shares at an average price of $34

• Market value of investments $5 billion, or $6 per PotashCorp share2

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on July 23, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#3

Page 4: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

Gross Margin Decrease Largely Due to Lower Prices; Most Notably in Potash

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

Q2 2013 GM

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q2 2014 GM

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

$979

$747

-$218

+$28 -$42

US$ Millions

Potash Highlights:• Average realizations improved from the first

quarter of 2014 but were well below those of the second quarter last year

Nitrogen Highlights:• Increased sales volumes and lower per-tonne

costs offset by decline in average realized prices

Phosphate Highlights:• Reduced fertilizer sales volumes and higher costs

from non-cash accounting charges related to White Springs closure

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#4

Page 5: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

Market 2013 (actual)

2014F (previous guidance)

China 11.2 11.4-11.7

India 3.1 3.5-4.0

Other Asia 7.8 8.0-8.3

Latin America 10.1 10.3-10.7

North America 8.7 9.0-9.5

Other 12.4 ~12.7

Total 53.3 55-57

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Guidance Raised Given Stronger Demand in North America and China

2014 Global Potash Demand

2012 2013 2014F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Million Tonnes KCl

Slide#5

12%

2014F (current guidance)

11.8-12.1

3.5-4.0

8.0-8.3

10.3-10.7

10.0-10.5

~12.7

56.5 - 58.0

2014 Forecast per PotashCorp

Page 6: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

2011 2012 2013 2014F0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

World Potash FundamentalsStrong Demand and Improved Operating Rates

2014 Forecast per PotashCorp

Slide#6

Global Potash Shipments by Half

1H 2012

1H 2013

1H 2014F

2H 2012

2H 2013

2H 2014F

10

15

20

25

30

35

Million Tonnes KCl

5%

10%

Global Operating Rates*

11%

* Based on percentage of PotashCorp’s estimate for global operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level).

Percent

Page 7: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

2013Cash Cost*

2014 Cash Cost* Target

2016Cash Cost* Target

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 Cash-related Cost of Goods SoldDepreciation and Amortization

Source: PotashCorp

Improving Potash Cost ProfileOn Target to Achieve 2014 Savings of $15-20 per Tonne

Slide#7

PotashCorp Per Tonne Cost of Goods Sold

US$ per tonne

* Cash costs refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization

** As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation or changes to depreciation and amortization); target assumes successful ramp up of expansions at lower-cost facilities

Annualized Improvement

Target**

~$15-$20/mt

Annualized Improvement

Target**

~$20-$30/mt

Page 8: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

49.2%

PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members

Source: Company Reports, PotashCorp

Canpotex Entitlement Growth Expected to Support Sales Volumes Growth

Potash: Increasing Canpotex Entitlement

Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement

53.7%

PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members

First-half 2014 Second-half 2014

Slide#8

Page 9: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

Source: PotashCorp

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014F

2015E

2016E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

PotashCorp Capital Spending**

CAPEX Spending Largely Complete

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

94%

6%

Completed Remaining

PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*

US$ Billions

Slide#9

* As at June 30, 2014. Includes both debottleneck and expansion spending.

** Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2006-2013); 2015E and 2016E do not include Major Repairs and Maintenance expenditures (estimated at ~$140M per year) or capitalized interest.

** As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010, information from 2006-2009 is presented on a previous Canadian generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, previous results may not be comparable to 2010 forward.

Page 10: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

2014 Guidance*

Third Quarter

• Earnings per share: $0.35-$0.45

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $1.70-$1.90

• Potash gross margin: $1.2-$1.4 billion

• Potash sales volumes: 8.9-9.2 million tonnes

• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $1.0-$1.2 billion

* Guidance as at July 24, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#10

Page 11: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

2014 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.1 billion

• Annual effective tax rate: 26-28 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: 16-18 percent of total potash gross margin

• Income from offshore investments***: $230-$240 million

• Selling and administrative expenses: $235-$245 million

• Finance costs: $175-$185 million

* Guidance as at July 24, 2014

** Does not include capitalized interest

*** Represents share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#11

Page 12: PotashCorp - 2014 Q2 Earnings

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