potential future earth impact

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295 NEAs: Last Updated A ug 17, 2010

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Introduction toImpactMonitoring

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The following table lists potential future Earth impact events that the JPL Sentry System hasdetected based on currently available observations. Click on the object designation to go to apage with full details on that object.

Sentry is a highly automated collision monitoring system that continually scans the most currentasteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100 years. Whenever apotential impact is detected it will be analyzed and the results immediately published here,except in unusual cases where an IAU Technical Reviewis underway.

It is normal that, as additional observations become available, objects will disappear from thistable whenever there are no longer any potential impact detections. For this reason we maintaina list of removed objectswith the date of removal.

NOTES:

2010-Jul-26In some cases, investigations into potential impacts are conducted for more than 100 years into the future. Currently,there are two well-observed objects for which long-term analyses have been carried out.

1. Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, has a significant possibility of impact on March 16, 2880. A careful computation of theimpact probability, which is less than 0.33%, is challenging because the orientation of its spin pole is poorly known.Giorgini et al. (Science, Vol. 296. no. 5565, pp. 132 - 136, 2002) analyzed this object's motion, which is discussedhere:http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da

2. The second object, (101955) 1999 RQ36, currently has non-zero impact probabilities on numerous occasionsduring the years after 2165. This is analyzed in a paper published by Milani et al. (Icarus, Vol. 203, pp. 460-471,2009), which is available as here:http://arxiv.org/abs/0901.3631.

Note the Torino Scale is formally undefined for potential impacts more than one century into the future and so notapplicable in such cases.

2009-Oct-07The risk assessment for Apophis has been updated to reflect new astrometry released by Tholen et al. (DPS 2009)and dispersions due to the Yarkovsky effect. Results reported by Chesley et al. at the 2009 Div. of PlanetarySciences meeting.

2008-May-18Sentry has switched to a new server and management architecture. As a part of this transition, all objects in the NEAcatalog were reanalyzed with the new system. This recomputation leads inevitably to minor differences in the resultsdue to the statistical nature of the impact monitoring algorithms.

ObjectDesignation

YearRange

PotentialImpacts

ImpactProb.(cum.)

Vinfinity(km/s)

H(mag)

Est.Diam.(km)

PalermoScale(cum.)

PalermoScale(max.)

TorinoScale(max.)


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