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Potential of human-robot interaction

for manufacturing

Prof dr ir Bram Vanderborght bram.vanderborght@vub.ac.be

!Robotics Research Group Vrije Universiteit Brussel

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2

122 Europe in figures — Eurostat yearbook 2011

Population

Figure 2.7: Median age of population(years)

1990Change 1990 to 2009

(1) Excluding French overseas departments.(2) Data may be affected by the change of population definition in 2008.(3) 2008 instead of 2009.

Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind)

Figure 2.8: Population structure by major age groups, EU-27 (1)(% of total population)

19.5 17.2 15.6 15.4 14.5 14.0 14.1 14.0

66.8 67.2 67.2 64.6 61.9 59.2 57.1 56.0

10.6 12.3 12.7 14.4 16.6 18.0 17.8 17.8

6.9 8.9 11.0 12.1

3.1 3.3 5.74.5

0

25

50

75

100

1990 2000 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

80+ years65-79 years15-64 years0-14 years

(1) Excluding French overseas departments; 2020 to 2060 data are EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario.

Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind and proj_08c2150p)

!2

Ageing population

In 1990 Persons 65+ à 13,7 % Persons 85+ à 3,1 %

In 2060 Persons 65+ à 30% à increase with 250% k Persons 85+ à 12% à increase with 400% k

In 1990 67% of population support population

In 2060 Only 56% of population support population

Working population shall - Work harder - Work more To realize the same Today 40 hout/week à In 2060: 50 hour/week

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Increasing life expectancy

Source:  HEIDI  data  tool  EU-­‐Commission

In 1960 Life expectancy Belgium 69,66 years Av. EU 67,72 years !At age of 65 Belgium 13,52 years Av. EU 13,99 years

In 2008 (50 years later) Life expectancy Belgium 80,10 years Av. EU 78,66 years !At age of 65 Belgium 19,50 years Av. EU 18,46 years

For Belgium this is an increase of 18,2% over 50 years ! 1/5 longer life!!!

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Increased need for assistance

Not only functional weakness, but mobility also affected by lower motor skills due to stroke or neurological misfunction

The need for Personal Assistance with everyday activities increases with age. !% of persons needing assistance with everyday activities by age

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Increased health cost

Source: EU White Paper “Together for Health: A Strategic Approach for the EU 2008-2013”.

For Flanders by 2050 : • will be confronted much

stronger • its demographic pattern counts

more elderly people • And Healthcare costs are

higher in comparison with other EU countries !

• Today = 11,1% of GDP = 36,8 billion EUR !

• Increase of 25% = 9,2 billion EUR/year

For EU by 2050: !healthcare spending increase with 25%

Health is the greatest wealth!

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?

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Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy

Policy makers and societies need to prepare for future technology. To do this well, they will need a clear understanding of how technology might shape the global economy and society over the coming decades. !Since the Industrial Revolution, technology has had a unique role in powering growth and transforming economies. !The McKinsey Global Institute set out to identify which of these technologies could have a massive economically disruptive impact between now and 2025.

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Study Gartner

• 2013  Hype  Cycle  on  evolving  relationship  between  human  and  machine.  

• 3  trends:  – Augmenting  humans  with  technology  – Machines  replacing  humans  – Humans  and  machines  working  alongside  each  

other

Combine  the  best  of  the  two  worlds  Machines  • precision  • repeatability  • 3D  jobs  • …    Humans  • creativity  • problem  solving    • dexterity    • …  !

Human  robot  interaction

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Foresight study of Fraunhofer about the future technology domains Germany next 10-15 years

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Robots are about to enter our daily life

Zora  clip  Reinout  Verbeke

Probo

AMPFoot

Cyberlegs

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Need for a strong manufacturing industry

Manufacturing industry: 20% employment / 80% export Indirect employment: 2-5 jobs Manufacturing industry essential for other industries

(without product, nothing to transport). Manufacturing industry under pressure (Ford Genk,…) Innovation required !  

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Manufacturing industry: outflow to low cost countries

path manufacturing in low cost countriesJapan - South Korea - China - Vietnam - … !Labor costs: US: $23.32/hour Germany: 25.80$/hour China: 1.36$/hour !• Not sustainable • Loss of innovation • Loss of jobs !

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Trends towards reshoring

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Industrial robots

International Federation of Robotics (IFR) 2012: 1.15 million operational industrial robots 2015: 1.58 million robots (+36%) China will become the biggest robotics market in 2013 (to keep up competition). Robots sold to automotive OEMs +47% Robots sold to automotive component suppliers +21% Robots create jobs

(and with better quality)

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Limitations industrial robots

• Big and heavy • Expensive • Dangerous • Requires skilled persons

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New generation co-workers

• Safety, faceless operation • Co-worker: social and physical human-robot interaction • Intuitive learning by demonstration • Suitable for unskilled employers • Suitable for low volumes • Cheap

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Co-workers

Cheap 22.000 $ - 3,4$/hour Suitable for SME Learning by demonstration suitable for small quantities Safe: work with humans !!UBR-1 35.000$ Unbounded Robotics

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A roadmap for US Robotics

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!

“Robotics is the fastest growing industry in the world, poised to become the largest in the next decade.”!

!

That’s the opening quote from a new report by Littler Mendelson, the world’s largest labor and employment law firm. The Report titled: “The Transformation of the Workplace Though Robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Automation”

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Example Brussels airport

Staff  in  airport  walks  20km  a  day  !!!!Luggage  handler  moves  18  ton  a  day

How  can  they  work  longer?  Use  of  assistive  robotics

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Exoskeletons

Knexo VUB ALTACRO VUB

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Conclusion

• Robots are about to enter new applications • Answer  to  societal  challenges  • Create  new  economic  markets  

• Robots  will  be  in  Factories  of  the  Future  • Robots  will  be  Products  of  the  Future  • Robots will be everywhere in different forms and

applications, impact bigger than the internet • But still research necessary • Solve in a interdisciplinary research effort

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