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Marta Coll14th November 2017, Madrid
https://[email protected]
Potentials and limitations of marine exploited resources for seafood security
Potentials of marine ecosystems
Limitations to the “business as usual”
Building an integrated view
Take home messages
Potentials of marine ecosystems
http://www.e-mta.eu
Biodiversity, understood as the degree of variation of life forms, ranges from genetic diversity to that of species, functions and ecological
interactions and ecosystems
Marine ecosystems
Mora et al. 2011. PLoSBiology; Costello and Chaudhary 2017. CB
There arepredictions of 8.7 million eukaryotic species
globally, of which 2.2 million are marine (86% of the
species on Earth and 91% in the ocean still await
description)
The World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS) contains 243.000 species, 16% are marine
Marine habitats
http://www.emodnet-seabedhabitats.eu
Highly diverse and heterogenic
The visible and the invisible
Genetic, functional biodiversity and ecological interactions
Cefas 2012
Ecosystem services
Oceanwealth.org/ecosystem-services
Provisioning services (seafood, timber, algae, minerals, health)
Regulating services (coastal protection, prevent erosion, water purification, carbon storage)
Cultural services (recreation, beauty, spiritual, intellectual, cultural benefits)
Food provision
FAO SOFIA 2016
Food provision
FAO SOFIA 2016
Economic evaluation
Oceanwealth.org/ecosystem-services
Ecosystem services
Oceanwealth.org/ecosystem-services
Supporting services: services that are necessary for all of the
other ecosystem services to occur
Limitations of the “business as usual”
• New geological era: significant human influence
• Multiple high-impact human activities
• Erosion of biodiversity and global change (climate)
• Current crossroads: use and conservation
Lotze et al. 2006. Science, Rockström et al . 2009. Nature; Estes et al. 2011. Science; Tittenson et al. 2014. Science; McCauley et al. 2015. Science
The Anthropocene
• IUCN Red List shows increase in threatened species• Plentiful local extinctions (terrestrial and marine)• Trophic downgrading, Defaunation, FDFW, ...• Biodiversity and structure - functioning• Biodiversity and stability - productivity• Impact of ecosystem services (socio-economic impacts)
Lotze et al. 2006. Science; Halpern et al. 2008; Estes et al. 2011. Science; Tittenson et al. 2014. Science; McCauley et al. 2015. Science
Global Change
Human impacts in the ocean (2013)
Halpern et al 2008. Science 2008, 2015. Nature
Global Change
Based on 19 anthropogenic stressors
Jackson et al. 2001. Science; Halpern et al Science 2008; NOAA 2017; Cheung et al. 2010. GCB; FAO SOFIA 2016
Global Change
Primary producers changes bottom-up effects
Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno. 2010. Science; Boyce et al. 2011. Nature; Boyce et al. 2014. PIO; Malbà et al. 2014. BIOCONS
www.ceab.csic.es
Changes from 1842 to 2009
Ecological consequences
Decreased abundance of larger marine animals
Christensen et al. 2003. F&F; Lotze and Worm. 2009. TREE; McClenacha.n 2009. ConsBio
1958 1985 2007
Decrease in mean size of macrofauna species
Ecological consequences
Jackson et al. 2001. Science; Sandin et al. 2008. PLoS ONE; Baum and Worm 2009. JAE; Ester et al. 2011. Science; Lotze et al. 2011. TREE; Roux et al 2012.BMS
Changes in predators top-down effects and trophic cascades
Ecological consequences
Scheffer et al. 2001. Nature; Rockström et al . 2009. Nature
Biodiversity and productivity, stability and resilience
Resistance, Reversibility, RecoveryRegime change, Alternative states
Ecological consequences
SOS: Safe Operating Space
Ocean Health Index
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/
2014 (updated every year)Ranking from 0-100220 EEZ (also for high seas)
Halpern et al. 2012 Nature
Ocean Health Index
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/
Wild Caught Fisheries
Ocean Health Index
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/
Mariculture
Ocean Health Index
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/
Tourism and Recreation
Ocean Health Index
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/
Clean waters
Building an integrated view
Marine food webs
Cury et al. 2000. ICES JMS; Cury et al 2012 Science, Pikitch et al 2013 F&F
Marine species establish complex interactions in dynamic
non-linear ecological networks
The rule of 10%....
Pauly and Christensen. 1995. Science, Libralato et al. 2008. MEPS
Marine food webs
The visible and the invisible
Lynam et al 2016. PNAS
“What escapes the eye…is a much more
insidious kind of extinction: the extinction of
ecological interactions”
Daniel H. Janzen 1974
↑ SST;
retreat of sea
ice;
↑ acidification;
↑ coastal
hypoxic &
oxygen min.
zone;
↑ sea surface
level.
Physical changes in the ocean
• Physiology
• Growth
• Body sizeINDIVIDUAL
• Distribution
• Abundance
• Recruitment
POPULATION
• Species composition
• Invasion/extinction.COMMUNITY
• Productivity
• Species interaction ECOSYSTEM
Biological / ecological changes in the ocean
↑ population
↑ habitat
destruction
↑ consumption
↑ pollution
↑
eutrophication
Socio-economic changes in the ocean
3/5
Integrated view
Steenbeek 2014. IRD; Modified from Cury et al. In prep.
Modelling complexes: modularity and interoperability
Challenges
Plagányi 2007 FAO
Ecosystem modelling
Ecosystem models for an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries
Tro
ph
ic le
vel
Intenseexploitation
Habitat modification
Pollution & nutrient enrichment
Introduction of exotic species
Climaticchanges
Number of species & trophic biodiversity
(NETWORK, EwE, Atlantis…)
Stock assessment models (VPA, LCA)
Biogeochemical models (NPZD)
Statistical models(GLM, GAM)
Multispecies models (MSVPA)
Individual Based models
Lotka-Volterra adapted multispecies models
Size Based models(OSMOSE)
Graph design by Daniel Pauly; Artist Rachel AtanacioPlagányi 2007 FAO
Ecosystem modelling
Ecosystem modelling
Fulton et al. 2015. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B.
Schematic diagram of the broad classes of model used to consider Marine Protected Areas
Tactical
Conceptual
Strategic
Consider from gens to ecosystems (including humans)
Integrate ecological theory with empirical data
Bring together field, experiments and modelling
Statistical – mechanistic modelling
Stochastic – deterministic modelling
Different spatial and temporal scales
Tool to test hypothesis, advanced theory
Develop dynamic simulations of plausible futures
Why ecosystem modelling?
• Analize, evaluate and predict changes in marine communities and ecosystems
Piroddi et al. 2017. SR. ; Fulton et al. 2015. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B
Ecosystem modelling
Western Mediterranean Sea
Counterfactuals
Piroddi et al. 2017. Scientific Reports
• Historical changes in the Mediterranean marine food web
Meaningful indicators
Sensitivity, specificity and responsiveness
Ind
icat
or
Pressure
Shannon et al. 2014. MEPS; Fu et al. 2015. JMS; Coll et al. 2016. ECOIND; Sin et al. submitted. ECOIND.
Fmsy multiplier
Stan
dar
diz
edin
dic
ato
r
Model-based HTL simulations
Meaningful indicators
Ecopath Ecosim Ecospace
GES descriptors Assessment criteria Indicators Static Temporal Spatio-temporal
Species distribution Distributional range/pattern
Population size (1) abundance and/or (2) biomass
Population condition(1) body size; (2) age class structure; (3) sex ratio; (4)
fecundity rates; (5) survival/mortality rates; (6) other
Habitat distribution Distributional range/pattern
Condition of the typical (1) species and (2) communities
Relative (1) abundance and/or (2) biomass
Composition of ecosystem components: (1) habitats and (2)
speciesRelative proportions of ecosystem components: (1)
habitats and (2) species
Interactions between structural components
Services provided
Productivity (production per unit
biomass) of key species or trophic groups
Performance of (1) key predator species determined from
their productivity; (2) other trophic group
Proportion of selected species at the top
of food webs(1) Large fish (by weight); (2) other species
Abundance/distribution of key trophic
groups/species
(1) groups with fast turnover rates; (2) groups/species that
are targeted by human activities or that are indirectly
affected by them; (3) habitat-defining groups/species; (4)
groups/species at the top of the food web; (5) long-
distance anadromous and catadromous migrating species;
(6) groups/species that are tightly linked to specific
groups/species at another trophic level
(1) type; (2) abundance; (3) biomass; (4) areal extent
Extent of seabed significantly affect by human activities for
the different substrate types
Presence of particularly sensitive and/or tolerant species
(1) species diversity and (2) richness, (3) proportion of
opportunistic to sensitive species
Proportion of (1) biomass or (2) number of individuals in
the macrobenthos above some specified length/size
2. MSFD indicators
Habitat condition
Ecosystem structure
Ecosystem processes & functions
Substrate characteristics - physical
damage
Condition of benthic community
1. Biological Diversity
4. Food webs
6. Sea floor integrity
MSFD indicators
Meaningful indicators
Towards future scenarios
Total Caught Fish Biomass for 1990-
1999
Net Primary Production change
from 1990s to 2090s
Christensen et al. 2015. GEB; Tittensor et al. 2017. Geosci. Model. Dev. Discuss.; Lotze et al. Submitted. Science
Integrated view
Evolution from conventional fisheries and aquaculture management to cross-sectoral integrated approaches
FAO SOFIA 2016
Integrated view
FAO SOFIA 2016
Need to integrate different ecological &economic processes
Consider bottom-up and top-down dynamics together
Adaptation, evolution and behaviour
Functional diversity, diverse interactions
Direction and strength of the interactions
Cumulative effects
Spatial-temporal data in high resolution
Uncertainty and error (data, processes)
Socio-economic future scenarios
(…)
Challenges
Steenbeek et al. 2013. Ecological Modelling 263, 139-151.
Reconcile the use and conservation of marine ecosystems
Biodiversity Ecosystem services Socio-economic value
New vision for society
“The most critical task to which humankind is faced with is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, which could produce a permanent prosperity, knowing the biophysical constraints of the real world, in such a way that it would be just and fair for all humankind, other species and future generations”
Pikitch et al 2004 Science, Costanza 2000 Ecology and Society
Google imagesPikitch et al 2004 Science
Urgent societal need
From gens to ecosystems: large potential of the ocean
Ecological complexity: everything is connected
Cumulative impacts are real and accelerating
Impacts on ecosystem services and socio-economics
Need for integrated approaches of socio-ecological systems
Emerging tools to consider ecosystem complexity
Key contributors to management and policy needs
analyse, evaluate, predict, indicators, scenarios
Only understanding the status and trends of marine resources within an ecosystem context we can property design sustainable marine activities to fulfil future human seafood (marine resources) demands
The Unnatural History
of the Sea by Callum
Roberts
The Empty Ocean
by Richard Ellis
The End of the Line: How Overfishing Is
Changing the World and What We Eat
by Charles Clover Une mer sans
poissons (Broché)
by Philippe Cury and
Yves Miserey
Learn more…