power generation demand supply outlook in india · chattisgarh in last 3 fyp approximately 50% of...
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ENINCON Energy & Infra Consulting
Power Generation demand supply outlook in India
December 2013
Copyright© 2013 ENINCON, All rights reserved
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ENINCON Energy & Infra Consulting
Copyright© 2013 ENINCON, All rights reserved
Power Generation demand supply outlook in India| 2 Research Base
Exhibit 1: State-wise Present Installed Capacity (MW), Capacity Additions (MW) and Energy Shortages (%)
Source: ENINCON Research, 2013
ILLUSTRATIVE Access to affordable and uninterrupted power supply is a prerequisite for the growth of a nation. India is still perennially short of electric power. The country faces average energy and peak shortages to the extent of 12% and 11% respectively. In fact, deficit in power supply has emerged as the biggest infrastructure constraint in the country. Eleventh Five Year Plan (FYP) has set a target of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate averaging 9% per year. Insufficient power supply is just one of the issues plaguing the sector. Some of the other issues in the power sector include, high transmission and distribution losses, rising generating costs accompanied by eroding revenues due to pilferage, bad debts and supply of power at subsidized rates for the agricultural sector, etc.
-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Capacity Installed as of March 2010 (in MW)
Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Chattisgarh
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamilnadu
Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
Sikkim
West Bengal
Anrunachal Pradesh
Assam
Meghalaya
Tripura
Cluster B
Cluster A
Maharashtra Gujarat
Chattisgarh
In Last 3 FYP missed
approximately 50% of the
capacity addition targets
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104 Giga Watts (GW) total capacity
addition to the slippage factor of
10% - 15%.
Research Case
Power Generation demand supply outlook in India | 3
Exhibit 2: Approach followed by ENINCON for generation scenario
Source: ENINCON Perspective, 2013
ILLUSTRATIVE
Hence, the total capacity addition was not subjected to a slippage factor, as apportioning slippage at the project level was not possible due to lack of sufficient information related to project level activity of these under-construction plants in Eleventh and Twelfth Plan and those that are announced but are still to initiate any significant execution work. However, ENINCON is definitely of the view that slippages in the capacity addition targeted in the Eleventh Plan and the first mid-term of the Twelfth Plan is inevitable. At least historic performance points towards that and, hence, we have subjected the 104 Giga Watts (GW) total capacity addition to the slippage factor of 10% - 15%. One could argue that 10% - 15% slippage is still a too optimistic estimate on the slippage factor perspective; however, given the performance of ~ 24 GW capacity additions between April 2007 and June 2010, which is more than the total capacity addition 21 GW achieved during the entire Tenth FYP, it’s a near realistic estimate.
Level 3: Likely Capacity additions by
Public Vs. Private Players By Regions
Level 2: Capacity likely to be added is classified into
Fuel Ownership Technology
Level 1: Taking Best Effort Scenario in Consideration
104 GW likely to be added by thermal and hydro projects
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Research Objective & Results
ENINCON Power generation
Series- Dishing
out the
conventional &
unconventional
ways for
Investing
in power
Generation
Power Generation Business in India: Taking a
Dip and Finding Out what’s happening on field viz. what is the opportunity
size for business stake holders? Who would be the biggest beneficiaries? Which are the prime states for development? What should be Government’s role? What are the potential challenges in development? etc.
Res
ear
ch O
bje
ctiv
e
Res
earc
h R
esu
lts
1. Thermal Power Generation market potential & sizing
2. Opportunity landscaping and sizing for entire Power Generation value chain
3. State attractiveness analysis for power generation development in India
4. Deciphering power bussiness economics in India
5. Analyzing best in class global practices that can be emulated in India
1. Exact market break-up for all stakeholders
2. Opportunity fragmentation for stake- holders to exploit in India
3. Identifying best fit States for Thermal Generation power plant development in India
4. Capex involved and its roadmap till 2015 in India for Offshore wind projects
5. Identifying best technologies and management practices
Exhibit 4: ENINCON Research Objective & Results
ILLUSTRATIVE
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Key Queries Resolved
ENINCON
Business series –
Eliminating doubts and
presenting valuable
facts for business
Electrical equipment suppliers
• What is the market size & potential on offer for Electrical equipment suppliers?
• What will be the market share of domestic and foreign suppliers as per different scenarios?
EPC & Services
Providers
Govt. & Regulatory
Bodies/ Discoms
O&M, Ports, Shipping and Logistics provider
Project Developers &
Consultants
• What is the market size & potential on offer for EPC service providers?
• What are the major challenges in EPC services and how to overcome it?
• How capex and project execution time can be reduced in thermal power projects projects ?
• What are key regions and their attractiveness indices for developing thermal power projects in India?
• Who are the best technological solution providers for developing thermal power projects in India?
• What will be the different players involve in project development and what strategy should be adopted to reduce capex?
• What should be the incentive scheme and bidding mechanism adopted for thermal power projects?
• How will the discoms be benefitted by these projects?
• What is tune of business opportunity till 2015 in sight for BOP ?
• What will be market size and potential for O&M players?
• How other logistics medium can be benefitted by these projects?
Must buy for
Electrical equipment manufacturers Power Plant developers EPC Companies Electrical Equipment Providers Shipping Companies Vessel Contractors Discoms/Power off-takers/Other obligatory
agencies Power traders FII’s/Banks Project financers
Maritime boards Port Authorities O&M Players Transmission Service providers Logistics providers Railways Consultants Research firms Research Bodies/Institutes Industry associations BoP Service providers
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Contents & Coverage
1. Executive Summary 2. Background
3. Approach and Methodology
4. Power Generation Capacity in India 4.1 Region Wise 4.2 State Wise 5. Power Generation Capacity Additions in 2015
6. Fuel-wise Break up of Power Generation Capacity Additions in 2015
7. Impact of Fuel Shift in Power Generation Capacity 7.1 Additions on Fuel Requirements Impact on Coal Requirements by
2015 7.2 Additions on Fuel Requirements Impact on Gas Requirements by
2015
8. Technology Shift in Power Generation Capacity Additions by 2015
9. Capacity Addition by 2015 9.1 Region-wise Capacity Addition by 2015 9.2 State-wise Capacity Addition by 2015 9.3 Owner-wise Capacity Additions by 2015
10. Top Players in 2015 10.1 Top Central Sector Players in 2015 10.2 Top State Utilities in 2015 10.3 Top Private Players in 2015 11. Capacity Addition by Merchant Players by 2015
12. Conclusion
13. Enincon Perspectives
14. Annexure
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Annexure
Annex-I: Peak & Energy Shortages (1992-2010)
Annex-II: List of Projects already Commissioned with Chinese Equipment
Annex-III: List of Power Projects with Chinese Equipment for Commissioning in Eleventh FYP
Annex IV: List of Projects with Chinese Equipment for commissioning in the Twelfth FYP
Annex V: State-wise Installed Capacity (MW), March 31, 2010
Annex VI: State-wise Capacity Addition by 2015, MW
Annex VII: List of Under Construction thermal projects for likely benefits during Twelfth FYP
Annexure VIII: List of Power Projects expected to get Commissioned by 2015
Annexure IX: Under-Execution Project Portfolio of Top Five Private Players
Annex X: Research Methodology
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