power system modeling and market...

Power System Modeling and Market Integration

Dr. ir. Pieter Schavemaker

DIAM-TU DELFT Seminar on Future Challenges in Modeling Power Systems

TU Delft, The Netherlands

22 November 2012

E-Bridge is an international consulting firm specialized in the electricity and gas supply industries. E-Bridge bridges the gap between high-level corporate strategy and technical implementation

Extensive experience in market restructuring and regulation

From CWE to the Nordic region, Germany, Austria, Poland, South-Korea, Belarus and Bulgaria

Linked with an extensive operational experience in the energy industry

Strong competence in adapting operating and planning processes to balance "quality of supply", "costs" and "risks“

E-Bridge operates from two offices

Germany, Bonn, with 15 consultants and associate consultants

The Netherlands, Oosterbeek (Arnhem area), with 2 consultants

Who is E-Bridge

2

Contents

European energy policy

Focus on the Day-Ahead market

Market coupling

Flow based grid modelling

Zone delineation

3

Three cornerstones of energy policy

4

Security of

Supply

Sustainability

Energy policy

Competitive

markets

ENTSO-E’s Ten Year Network Development Plan

5

Security of Supply

26000km

Internal Energy

Market

28500 km

Renewable

Energy Sources

Integration

20000 km

Security of Supply

21900km

Internal Energy

Market

18200 km

Renewable

Energy Sources

Integration

45300 km

TYNDP 2010 TYNDP 2012

Source: ENTSO-E TYNDP

Increased cooperation and coordination on European level

TSO cooperations to safeguard the Security of Supply

6

TSOs served by Coreso TSOs cooperating in TSC

Increased cooperation and coordination on European level

Central auction offices to facilitate the market

7

Borders served by CASC Borders served by CAO

Organization of the electricity market

8

trade

export import

primary

energy production

consumption

Organization of the electricity market

9

trade

export import

primary

energy production

consumption

transmission & distribution

system services

Market segments

10

Long-Term Day-Ahead Intraday Balance

settlement

Example bid curves APX (Amsterdam Power Exchange)

11

Example bid curves APX (Amsterdam Power Exchange)

12

Social Welfare

13

Social welfare = consumer surplus + producer surplus

Quantity

Price

PA

country A

demand

supply

QA

Social Welfare

14


Quantity

Price

PA

country A

demand

supply

QA

Social Welfare

15


Quantity

Price

PA

country A

demand

supply

QA

Social Welfare

16


Quantity QB

Price

PB

country B

demand

supply

Quantity

Price

PA

country A

demand

supply

QA

Relation between price and import and export

17

Price

demand

supply

Quantity

PA

QA


18

Price

demand

supply

Quantity

PA

QA

Price

PA

Export Import

Net export curve


19

A: export

Price

demand

supply

Quantity

Price

PA

Export Import

Net export curve


20

A: export

Price

demand

supply

Quantity

PA*

QA*

Price

PA

Export Import

Net export curve


21

A: export

Price

demand

supply

Quantity

PA*

QA*

Price

PA

Export Import

Net export curve

Increase of Social Welfare by Import and Export

22

Price

Export Import

A

B


23

Price

Export Import

A

B

Import Export


24

Price

Export Import

A

B

Import Export

P*

Q*


25

Price

Export Import

A

B

Import Export

P*

Q*

But how about the grid?

26

Price

Export Import

A

B

Import Export


27

Price

Export Import Grid

constraints

A

B

Import Export

PB*

PA*


28

Price

Export Import Grid

constraints

A

B

Import Export

PB*

PA*

Social welfare = consumer surplus + producer surplus +

congestion revenue

Price difference between NL-FR

With a Market coupling of FR-BE-NL as of Nov 06

Source: APX-ENDEX 29

Current status of price coupling in Europe

Source: 20th Florence Forum 30

Preliminary roadmap of price coupling in Europe

Source: 20th Florence Forum 31

Market Coupling: a constrained optimization problem

32

• All the bids of the local/national Power eXchanges are brought together in order to be

matched by a centralized algorithm

• Objective function: Maximize social welfare

• Control variables: Net positions

• Subject to: ∑ net positions = 0

Grid constraints

Price

ExportImport Grid

constraints

A

B

ImportExport

PB*

PA*

What is congestion?

33 Source: Schavemaker and Noury, CWE Flow-Based Market Coupling: on the Eve of Implementation (2012)

What is congestion?

34

commercial: more capacity requested by the market than is available

physical: overloaded transmission lines leading to outages

Source: Schavemaker and Noury, CWE Flow-Based Market Coupling: on the Eve of Implementation (2012)

Congestion management in the broadest sense

35

determination of

available

transmission

capacity

capacity

allocation congestion

forecast if needed:

congestion relief

Bids /

reservations

Generation

schedules

Timeline


Assessment of the security of supply domain

36

determination of

available

transmission

capacity

capacity

allocation

Bids /

reservations



37

determination of

available

transmission

capacity

capacity

allocation

Bids /

reservations



38

determination of

available

transmission

capacity

capacity

allocation

Bids /

reservations



39

determination of

available

transmission

capacity

capacity

allocation

Bids /

reservations NTC/ATC or FB constraints

respecting the Security

of Supply domain


How to approximate the security of supply domain

- example with 3 countries -

40

Country A

Country C

Country B

Monitored

lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)

Influence of exchange

on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage

…

…

Line 2 …

…

Line 3 …

…




41

Country A

Country C

Country B

Monitored

lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage

…

…

Line 2 …

…

Line 3 …

…

line 1




42

Country A

Country C

Country B

Monitored

lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage

…

…

Line 2 …

…

Line 3 …

…

150

line 1




43

Country A

Country C

Country B

+100 MW

-100 MW

Monitored

lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage

…

…

Line 2 …

…

Line 3 …

…

150 10%

line 1




44

Country A

Country C

Country B

Monitored

lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage

…

…

Line 2 …

…

Line 3 …

…

150 10%

line 1

Outage1

120 Outage 1




45

Country A

Country C

Country B

+100 MW

-100 MW

Monitored

lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage

…

…

Line 2 …

…

Line 3 …

…

150 10%

line 1

Outage1

120 Outage 1 20%


The security of supply domain

46

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)

! Numbers are for illustration only



47

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




48

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




49

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




50

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




51

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




52

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




53

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




54

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




55

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




56

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)




57

Monitored

Lines

Outage

scenario

Margin left

(MW)


on lines (PTDF)

AB AC BC

Line 1 No

outage 150 1% 10% 3%

Outage 1 120 5% 20% 1%

Outage 2 100 6% 25% 1%

Line 2 No

outage 150 -2% 0 5%

Outage 3 100 -12% 0 10%

Line 3 No

outage

Outage 4

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

Security of supply domain

Constraints

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)



ATC & FB grid constraints

58

Given the security domain, NTC/ATC constraints and the corresponding NTC/ATC domain are a choice made by the TSO

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0

security domain constraints polyhedron

Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)

NTC/ATC



59


- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0


Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)

NTC/ATC



60


- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0


Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)

NTC/ATC Flow-based


The FB domain is the security domain itself


61


- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

0

100

200

300

400

- 400 - 300 - 200 100 200 300 400 - 100 0


Exchange(A>C)

Exchange(A>B)

NTC/ATC Flow-based


The FB domain is the security domain itself

In FB capacity split is not a choice of the TSO, but is market driven (at the time of allocation)

FB offers more trading opportunities with the same level of security of supply

Current status of Flow Based

62

CWE CEE

Flow-based

Market Coupling

• Implementation

go-live: end 2013

• External Parallel run

start: dec 2012

Flow-based

• Started FB

development for

FB explicit auctions

• Currently on hold

Zone delineation

Zone delineation is one way to manage congestions in the transmission network. Three systems may be distinguished:

the uniform system, where no exchanges are subject to an allocation mechanism;

the nodal system, where exchanges between all nodes are subject to an allocation mechanism;

the zonal system, where only exchanges between zones are subject to an allocation mechanism.

63

Zone delineation: what does it do?

64


65

Surplus area

+++


66

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area


67

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area


68

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area


69

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+


70

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


71

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


72

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


73

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area

Which exchange is

causing the

congestion?


74

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area

Flow caused by exchange not

under allocation

Flow caused by exchange under

allocation

Which exchange is

causing the

congestion?


75

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation

Which exchange is

causing the

congestion?

(Both are, but only one

falls under allocation

due to the current

zone delineation)


76

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation

Which exchange is

causing the

congestion?



due to the current

zone delineation)

The allocation mechanism reduces the

exchange under allocation until the

congestion is relieved


77

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation

Which exchange is

causing the

congestion?



due to the current

zone delineation)

The allocation mechanism reduces the

exchange under allocation until the

congestion is relieved


78

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation


79

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation

A new bidding zone

brings the other

exchange also under

allocation


80

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation

A new bidding zone

brings the other

exchange also under

allocation

Both exchanges now

compete for the scarce capacity and

the price differences determine the

capacity distribution between the two

exchanges


81

Surplus area

+++

- - -

Shortage area

Surplus

Area

+

- Shortage

area


under allocation


allocation

Both exchanges now

fall under allocation

The congestion is

efficiently managed

through the allocation

Questions?

82

For further reading. . .

Public CWE materials on market coupling, flow-based, and price zones can be found on: http://www.tennet.org/english/projects/Marketcoupling/downloads.aspx

Schavemaker, P., Croes, A., Otmani, R., Bourmaud, J., Zimmermann, U., Wolpert, J., Reyer, F., Weis, O., and Druet, C.: Flow-based allocation in the central western Euro¬pean region, paper C5-307, CIGRE 2008, Paris.

M. Aguado, R. Bourgeois, J.Y. Bourmaud, J. Van Casteren, M.A. Ceratto, M. Jäkel, B. Malfliet, C. Mestdag, P. Noury, M. Pool, W. Van Den Reek, M. Rohleder, P.H. Schavemaker, S. Scolari, O. Weis, J. Wolpert: Flow-based market coupling in the Central Western European region - on the eve of implementation -, paper C5- 204, CIGRE 2012, Paris.

83

http://www.tennet.org/english/projects/Marketcoupling/downloads.aspx

http://www.tennet.org/english/projects/Marketcoupling/downloads.aspx

Contact 84

E-Bridge Consulting B.V.

Utrechtseweg 159a

6862 AH Oosterbeek, the Netherlands

Phone +31 (0)26 700 9797

Fax +31 (0)26 700 9799

E-mail [email protected]

For more information about our

projects, customers and consultants

please visit our web site at

www.e-bridge.com

Disclaimer 85

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