power system security under australia’s … · power system security under australia’s evolving...
TRANSCRIPT
POWER SYSTEM SECURITY UNDER
AUSTRALIA’S EVOLVING ENERGY MARKETS
FRANK MONTIEL
2016 ENA REGULATION SEMINAR
SLIDE 2
• Technology costs, pro-active consumers, new business models and
government policies are driving:
o a changing generation mix
o changing patterns of demand
o changes in the dynamic performance of the power system
• Work is underway to determine the changes needed to rules, regulation and
policies to ensure power system security is maintained
OVERVIEW
SLIDE 3
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
Large-scale generation shifts
Almost all new generation is wind
and PV
Consumer shifts
Rooftop PV, energy efficiency
In horizon: batteries,
energy management, electric vehicles
SLIDE 4
ROOFTOP PV OUTPACING LARGE SCALE WIND
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000
20
01
20
02
2003
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Ca
pa
city (
MW
)
NEM installed wind and rooftop PV
Rooftop PV NEM installed wind
SLIDE 5
THE FUTURE OF GENERATION IN THE NEM
SLIDE 6
BATTERY STORAGE
• A steady uptake in battery storage is forecast after 2021 in both the
residential and the commercial sectors.
• This is expected to be driven by
o projected retail electricity prices
o decline in battery costs
o transition to a time-of-use tariff structure.
• By 2035–36, 3.8 GW of rooftop PV capacity is expected to have integrated
battery storage, providing 6.6 GWh of energy storage potential.
o 3.8GW is comparable to total installed rooftop PV in 2015
SLIDE 7
FORECAST INSTALLED CAPACITY OF BATTERY
STORAGE
SLIDE 8
SOME OBSERVABLE TRENDS
• Non-registered
• Presence / characteristics could be unknown Registered Generation
• Distributed / embedded
• Not individually monitored
• Not centrally dispatched
Centrally Monitored Dispatched
• Output dependent on external factors• Reduction in frequency control capability under
normal and extreme circumstancesControllable
• Inverter connected and asynchronous generation
• Low inertia and weak system
Synchronous Generation
SLIDE 9
Synchronous
generationNon-synchronous
variable generation
Dispatchability
Inertia
Frequency
regulation
Fault level
contribution
Dynamic frequency
response (governor
action)
Energy
Voltage
control
Semi-dispatch
No minimum
generation level
(can be more flexible)
No start-up lead
time or costs
CHANGING GENERATION MIX –
SOME IMPACTS OF THE CHANGES
SLIDE 10
FUTURE POWER SYSTEM SECURITY PROGRAM
• AEMO is committed to ensuring we maintain security today and in the future
• Established a work program to give dedicated attention to the longer-term challenges
o Identify and prioritise the challenges
o Consider potential technical solutions
o Recommend means to deliver solutions
• Working in collaboration with others
o Working with stakeholder specialists (Technical Advisory Group)
o Working with ENA – evolving AEMO / DNSP interface
o Collaborating with AEMC
• Holding public forums and consultation through working groups and forums
• Outcomes:
o Making changes to AEMO’s internal process
o Promoting regulatory changes
o Throughout reports are being, and will be, published as they are completed
o COAG Energy Ministers mid year and report by end 2016
SLIDE 11
FUTURE POWER SYSTEM SECURITY
• Progress report to be released next week
o Identifying long term challenges
o Understanding technical solutions - underway
• AEMO has identified four high priority areas
o Frequency Control
o Management of extreme power system conditions
o System Strength
o Information, data and models
Dynamics and control
Visibility
SLIDE 12
CHALLENGES NOT PROBLEMS
While we see there are challenges in maintaining the security of the power
system in the future under some operating conditions, we are confident that
potential solutions abound
SLIDE 13
OPPORTUNITIES – CONSUMER SIDE
• Enhanced retail market offerings and rollout of advanced meters
• Home automation and the internet of things
• Smart, controlled loads and embedded generation
• Smart, controlled embedded storage
• Frequency controlled loads
SLIDE 14
OPPORTUNITIES – LARGE SCALE
• Large generators
o Synchronous generators
o Non-synchronous generators with augmented performance
• Specialist connected plant
o Synchronous condensers
o Statcoms and SVCs
o Flywheels
o Storage (batteries, pumped hydro)
• Networks
o New AC interconnectors and upgraded interconnectors
o New DC interconnectors
o Advanced protection systems and dynamic UFLS
SLIDE 15
OPPORTUNITIES – DELIVERY MECHANISMS
• Arrangements put in place should allow the right solutions to emerge, in the right context and at the right time
• Delivery mechanisms for large scale solutions could include
o Revised markets to encourage the economic delivery of required services
o Revised technical standards requiring new plant to provide additional services
o Changed Australian standards for appliances, embedded generation and storage
o New regulatory arrangements
• Solutions need to:
o be forward looking
o provide a market and regulatory environment which is adaptable to the issues in different areas of the network
o provide a flexible market and regulatory environment which is technology neutral and support innovation
o use efficient markets or incentive regulation to drive optimal outcomes
many solutions cross the boundary between networks and markets
o be tested against the National Electricity Objective
SLIDE 16
Thank you!