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TRANSCRIPT
March 2016
TMT Predictions was first published in 2001
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Digital Destruction?
Digital Disruption?
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
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2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
US Print Newspaper Ad Revenues 2000-2015E
(Billion USD, in 2014 dollars)
Total decline: -
78%
Source: Newspaper Association of America, Carpe Diem blog, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
US Digital Camera Unit Sales 2010-2015E
(millions) Total decline: -82%
CAGR: -29%
Source: Camera and Imaging Products Association, Om Malik blog, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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US Arcade Game Revenues 1992-2015E
(Billion USD, in 2012 dollars)
Total decline: -89%
CAGR: -10.3%
Source: Videogame sales wiki, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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$10$12$14$16$18$20
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
US Compact Disc Sales 1999-2015E(Billion USD, in 2013 dollars)
Total decline: -
92%
Source: Recording Industry Association of America, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
US Video Game Market Revenues 2008-2015E
(Billion USD, in 2012 dollars)
Total decline: -
32%
Source: Video games sales wiki, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
US Print Book Revenues 2010-2015E(Billion USD, in 2014 dollars)
Total decline: -
11%
Source: Association of American Publishers, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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US Cinema Revenues 2002-2015E(Billion USD, in 2014 dollars)
Total decline: -
10%
Source: Motion Picture Association of America, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
Canadian BDU Revenues 2010-2015E(Billion CAD, in 2014 dollars)
Total growth:
+1.1%
Source: Statista, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
US Live Nation Music Concert Sales 2008-2015E
(Billion USD, in 2014 dollars)
Total growth:
+23%
Source: Statista, and Deloitte estimates and analysis
Digital Destruction?
Digital Disruption?
"Exponential Growth of Computing" by Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
Artificial intelligence
Internet of Things
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Internet of Things really is things
$15 billion per plant
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One billion IoT devices in 2015
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Units $70B worth of services
Enterprise
Consumer
Source: David Pakman blog on Medium.com
Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy survey, US only, 2014
Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy survey, US only, 2014
Source: David Pakman blog on Medium.com
It’s not either/or, it’s BOTH
Pay TV (cable, telco & satellite) subs will fall 1-2% per year: 99 million HH base
Pay TV penetration will fall 2-4% per year: 83% base
Pay TV ARPU growth will be <5% per year at first, even lower later: $100/month base
OTA (antenna) only homes will grow by about 1 million HH per year: 12 million base
Daily traditional TV will fall by 10-15 minutes per year for 18+: 330 minutes base
Daily traditional TV will fall by 10% per year for 18-24 year olds: 170 minutes base
OTT subs will increase by 5-10 million per year, with many HH having >1 subscription
3D printing
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