“Anywhere from 25 million

to 1 billion people will be

forced to migrate because

of the changing climate by

2050.”

Time Magazine28th June, 2018

Catastrophic Damage

Credit: Diandra Jones

Not pretty!

Stronger hurricanes more frequently

• The frequency and intensity of the strongest storms in the North

Atlantic have increased over the satellite era (1979–2012).

• This Century, there will likely be an increase in both global

average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and rainfall

rates.

• It is more likely than not that the frequency of the most intense

storms will increase substantially in some basins,” including the

North Atlantic.

1 in 800 1 in 180 1 in 60

1990 2017 2090

A glimpse of our future…

National Emergency Operations

Centre destroyed…

90% Government offices

destroyed…

2.5 x GDP economic impact…

>90% of yachts damaged…

95% of electricity grid destroyed…

No public water supply for

months…

Most popular tourist beach closed

for months...

Climate Change

requires preparing

for the

unprecedented

Continuity plans

must imagine

the unimaginable

There’s absolutely no linearity between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5...

Hugo (1989 Cat 4) * Irma (2017 Cat 5) **Full electricity

restoration < 2 weeks > 6 months

Tourism

sector impactUSD $15 million USD $2.8 billion

Housing stock

impact

30% damaged

10% severe damage

62% damaged

31% major damage/destroyed

Water and

sewerage

infrastructure

damage

USD $121,870 USD $5.9 million

Phone service

(landlines)

Damaged but functioned

“very well” during storm

Essentially wiped out

Health sector Damage to hospital and 2

clinics totaling USD

$165,000

Damage to all 12 clinics. Major

damage to 5.

*Source: (Atwell, 1993). Post Hurricane Hugo Assessment Focusing on Sustainable Development Issues in the British Virgin Islands. Prepared for PAHO.

**Multiple official Government sources, including published reports, published speeches and personal communications.

• Communication

• Transportation

• Lack of basic

services

• Debris

• Receiving and

distributing relief

• Switch to renewable energy

• Implementation of coastal retreat strategies

• Building Code and other regulatory upgrades

Plan for the change before the disaster

The Caribbean is working to adapt

Nov 2003 - 8.4 inches Aug 2017 - 9.38 inches

There is a very high risk that average sea level would

increase by several meters over the next century or two

- Jean-Pascal van Ypersele – Former Vice Chair, IPCC

The Virgin Islands Climate Change Trust Fundwww.vicctf.org

We can’t adapt our way into a safe future

“Limiting global warming

to 1.5°C compared with

2°C would reduce

challenging impacts on

ecosystems, human

health and well-being,

making it easier to

achieve the UN

Sustainable Development

Goals,”

Priyardarshi Shukla, Co-

Chair of IPCC Working

Group III.

“We are already seeing the

consequences of 1°C of global

warming through more extreme

weather, rising sea levels and

diminishing Arctic sea ice, among

other changes,”

Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC

Working Group I.

“Every extra bit of warming

matters, especially since warming

of 1.5ºC or higher increases the

risk associated with long-lasting

or irreversible changes, such as

the loss of some ecosystems,”

Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of

IPCC Working Group II.

450-750 gigatons of CO2 equivalent

approx. 12 years

Lead the way on mitigation

Be the Change

Invest in the future

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Investments in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency would need to approx. double in the next 20 years, while investment in fossil-fuel extraction and conversion decrease by about a quarter

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