powerpoint presentation · 2017. 3. 29. · aviation d bridges c+ dams d drinking water d energy d+...
TRANSCRIPT
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N o t e : D a t a a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
S o u r c e : B L S , D e l t a A s s o c i a t e s ; F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 6
NE
T J
OB
CH
AN
GE
(T
HO
US
AN
DS
)
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Payroll Job GrowthUnited States | Month-to-Month
14.5 MILLION JOBS ADDED SINCE THE RECESSION
75 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF POSITIVE JOB GROWTH
5
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
14.5 MILLION JOBS ADDED SINCE THE RECESSION
75 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF POSITIVE JOB GROWTH
NE
T J
OB
CH
AN
GE
(T
HO
US
AN
DS
)
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-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CH
AN
GE
IN
ME
DIA
N P
RIC
E,
SIN
GL
E-F
AM
ILY
HO
ME
S
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%Effective Federal Funds Rate
10-Year Treasury
30-Year Treasury
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0.24%0.54%
2.15%
2.45%
2.98%3.03%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2015 2016 2017
Effective Federal Funds Rate
10-Year Treasury
30-Year Treasury
December 16, 2015 December 14, 2016
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.6%
Average 2016
12
-MO
NT
H C
HA
NG
E
3.1%
Average 2007 – 20092.0%
Average 2010 – 2015
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-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Q107
Q307
Q108
Q308
Q109
Q309
Q110
Q310
Q111
Q311
Q112
Q312
Q113
Q313
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
Q316
Q117
Q317
AN
NU
AL
CH
AN
GE
F O R E C A S T
2.2%
2017 Average2.1%
Post-Recession Average
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140LA
Bas
in NY
DFW
SF B
ay Atl
Was
Sou
th F
L
Den
ver
Bo
s
Ch
i
Ph
x
Ho
u
NE
W J
OB
S (
TH
OU
SA
ND
S)
67K
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-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Information
Financial Activities
Transportation/Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction/Mining
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
State and Local Government
Retail Trade
Federal Government
Leisure/Hospitality
Education/Health
Professional/Business Services
71,300
- 4,700
J O B C H A N G E
23,900
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%B
os
Den
DFW SF Bay
Was
Ph
x
NY
LAB
asin Atl
S Fl
a
Ho
u
Ch
i
November 2015 November 2016
-50 -50-40-170 -10 +10-80 -20-90 -10-40 -10
13
National Rate
4.8%
Basis Point Change
4.5%
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NE
W J
OB
S (
TH
OU
SA
ND
S)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1402
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
District Suburban MD Northern VA
F O R E C A S T
48,600
4-Year Average43,400
20-Year Average
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
20 Years 10 Years 1 Year
STOCKSS&P 500
REAL ESTATENCREIF Property Index
T-BILLS(90 day)
TO
TA
L A
NN
UA
L A
VE
RA
GE
RE
TU
RN
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Retail Industrial Apartment Office
TO
TA
L A
NN
UA
L R
ET
UR
N
Washington
US
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$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TOTA
L V
OLU
ME
(BIL
LIO
NS)
Office Multifamily Retail Flex/Industrial
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4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
6.3% 5.8% 5.4%5.6%
Office Flex/Industrial
Grocery-Anchored
Apartments
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Very Negative SomewhatNegative
Neutral Somewhat Positive Very Positive Unclear/Don'tKnow
SH
AR
E O
F R
ES
PO
ND
EN
TS
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Stimulus + Higher Deficits
Higher Inflation
Higher Interest Rates
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Immigration
Wall: $15B? $40B $285B?
Infrastructure: $1T over 10 years?
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Warehouse/Distribution
Ports of Entry
Export-intensive Metro Areas
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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
Eased regulations
Home mortgage underwriting
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac?
LOW INCOME HOUSING
TAX CREDITS
Lower tax rates
↓Fewer affordable
units
WASHINGTON METRO AREA
Federal hiring freeze
Defense spendingvs.
Other spending
Federal agencies moved out of region?
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TOTAL FEDERAL
39.8%60.2%NON-FEDERAL
10.7%
10.0%
19.1%
TOTAL FEDERAL
27.2%72.8%NON-FEDERAL
7.7%
6.7%
12.8%
2010 2020
OTHER FEDERAL FEDERAL WAGES & SALARIES PROCUREMENT
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
38%
11%
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45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
SQ
UA
RE
FE
ET
(M
ILL
ION
S)
47
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Aviation D
Bridges C+
Dams D
Drinking Water D
Energy D+
Hazardous Waste D
Inland Waterways D-
Levees D-
Public Parks and Recreation C-
Rail C+
Roads D
Schools D
Solid Waste B-
Transit D
Wastewater D
Ports C
Overall grade:
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27.2
23.3
20.1
24.4
28.4
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Health Care Educational Transportation Power Plants, Lines Highways and Streets
YE
AR
S
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SH
AR
E O
F G
DP
0.50%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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$1.72
$0.74
$0.39
$0.79
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
Surface Transportation Electricity Schools Other
Identified Funding Funding Gap
20
10
TR
ILL
ION
S
Total Funding Required: $3.6 trillionTotal Funding Gap: $1.6 trillion
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Surface Transportation
Electricity
Inland Waterways & Marine Ports
Water/Wastewater
Airports
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Public Transportation
Storm Water
Drinking & Waste Water
Public Buildings
Roads
Electric
Bridges
Gas
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450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
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-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Washington Metro New York Chicago San Francisco
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54.3
19.7
31.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
District Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland
SQ
UA
RE
FE
ET
(M
ILL
ION
S)
Office Development Under Construction Within ½ Mile
of a Metro Station:93% of Total in Region
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$2.3
$0.5$0.4
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
DC Virginia Maryland
BIL
LIO
NS
Within 1/4 Mile Within 1/2 MileDistance from Metrorail station:
28% of Total Area Tax Base
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State & Local Funds Fares & Parking Federal Debt Other
Compared to FY 2017: $2.8B (+11%)
FY18 BUDGET GAP
FTA Grants $60M
Management/Labor $50M
Riders $50M
District of Columbia $47M
Maryland $44M
Virginia $39M
TOTAL $290M
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MetroForward$5 billion over 2014-2020 for
safety and reliability improvements
SafeTrackIntensive program to
improve safety and reliability
3 years of work in 12 months (completion June 2017)
Back2Good
Safety
Reliability
Financial management
Customer experience
Federal Transit Administration
Safety oversight (October 2015)
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Proposals
Overhaul the governance structure
Fix the funding problem Improve the Board’s
capabilities Put the Federal
Government in charge
Funding Needed
$1 billion for regular life cycle maintenance and replacement
$600 million per year for capacity improvements
Annual operating deficits
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
SF Bay Phil NY Bos LA Basin Was DFW Hou Atl Chi
OV
ER
AL
L V
AC
AN
CY
RA
TE
14.1%
9.8%
National Rate
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
NY SF Bay Was DFW LA Basin Phil Bos Chi Hou Atl
CO
NS
TR
UC
TIO
N (
MIL
LIO
NS
OF
SF
)
11.3
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2001 to 2009 2010 to 2016
CH
AN
GE
IN
SF
LE
AS
ED
U
PO
N R
EL
OC
AT
ION
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OV
ER
AL
L V
AC
AN
CY
RA
TE
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
14.8%
14.1%
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Change in Asking Rent
Overall Vacancy Rate
Natural Vacancy Rate
F O R E C A S T
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The amenities game: what tenants want.
Older product: consider renovation or conversion.
Tenants to target: which industries are leasing space?
Target submarkets: select submarkets will turn to landlord.
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
LA Basin Det SF Bay NY Phi Hou Chi DFW Was/Bal Atl Bos
OV
ER
AL
L V
AC
AN
CY
RA
TE
7.6%
5.3%5.3%
National Rate
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-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NE
T A
BS
OR
PT
ION
(M
ILL
ION
S O
F S
F)
Long-Term Average3.6 MSF
6.3
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Retail
Services
Agri/Mining/Utilities
Manufacturing
Business Services
Transportation
Other Sectors
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49%
23%
14%
12% 2%
FLEX/INDUSTRIAL
RETAIL SELF STORAGE
MULTIFAMILY
OFFICE
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OV
ER
AL
L V
AC
AN
CY
RA
TE
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
7.0%
7.6%
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-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Change in Asking Rent
Overall Vacancy Rate
Natural Vacancy Rate
F O R E C A S T
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Submarkets to outperform?
Product types to outperform: data centers, retail distribution, biotech, and self-storage.
Undersupply of new inventory.
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VA
CA
NC
Y R
AT
E (
AL
L C
LA
SS
ES
)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
NY LA Wash DFW Atl SF Bay Chi Phi Phx South FL Balt Hou
3.8%
4.2%
National Rate
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UN
ITS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
F O R E C A S T
6,806
Long-Term Average
8,063
Average Since 2008
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
No VA Sub MD The District
MA
RK
ET
-R
AT
E U
NIT
S (
TH
OU
SA
ND
S)
PROJECTED STABILIZED VACANCY AT DEC. 2019
Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Dec. 2019: 3.9% Metro-Wide
DEMAND
27,100 units
SUPPLY*
33,649 units
Planned
Under Construction
3.5%
3.7%4.7%
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-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EF
FE
CT
IVE
RE
NT
CH
AN
GE
F O R E C A S T
4.0%
Long-Term Average
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Consider developing smaller-scale buildings in the District.
Differentiate from the competition.
Convert obsolete office buildings to apartments.
There are pockets of undersupply around the region.
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NU
MB
ER
OF
UN
ITS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Suburbs
District
1,900
F O R E C A S T
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-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PR
ICE
CH
AN
GE
F O R E C A S T
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AV
ER
AG
E P
RIC
E P
ER
SF
$2,799 $1,275 $1,213 $1,204 $1,150 $920 $802 $731 $678 $665 $638 $411 $0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
$2,800
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NU
MB
ER
OF
UN
ITS
2,566
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MA
RK
ET
-R
AT
E U
NIT
S
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
The District No VA Sub MD
DEMAND
6,225 units
SUPPLY*
5,016 units
Planned
Under Construction
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Be mindful of design and amenities depending on the buyer.
Build boutique or medium-sized condo projects.
Consider converting obsolete office buildings to condos.
Many development opportunities exist in the right locations.
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