powerpoint presentation · comes to mind effortlessly people think socially: social norms guide...
TRANSCRIPT
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All policy rests on assumptions of why we do what we do
Development policy 1.0:
Humans make decisions deliberatively, independently, and on the basis of consistent and self-interested preferences.
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All policy rests on assumptions of why we do what we do
Development policy 2.0:
People think automatically: when deciding, we usually draw on what comes to mind effortlessly
People think socially: social norms guide much of behavior, and people are conditional cooperators
People think with mental models: what we perceive and how they interpret it depends on concepts and world-views drawn from our societies and shared histories
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We think automatically This gives us a partial view of the world.
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Promoting savings by mental accounting in Kenya
Source: Dupas and Robinson 2013
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Dependents Independents (no college) Independents (some college)
Receiving help increased submission of financial aid
Submission of financial aid form Submission of financial aid form
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Dependents Independents (no college)
Independents (some college)
People who received help are more likely to receive financial aid
Received Pell Grant (financial aid) Received Pell Grant (financial aid)
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Dependents Independents (no college) Independents (some college)
Providing help dramatically increased enrollment amongst dependent applicants, but was less effective with older
independent tax filers.
College enrollment College enrollment
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We think socially What others think, expect, and do influences our preferences and decisions
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Activating norms to make roads safer: Stickers on minibuses
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Activating norms to make roads safer: Stickers on minibuses Impact
• Insurance claims involving injury or death fell by half, from 10 percent to 5 percent of claims
• Cost per year for a life saved was about $5.80 making the program even more cost effective than childhood vaccination, one of the most cost effective health interventions.
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Percentage of the population demonstrating contributor behavior
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Hairdressers offered social incentives sold twice as many condoms as the other groups.
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Represents a 43% increase in
payment
3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.6%
Control Original SAT Letter
Behavioural Letter
Behavioural + National Pride
Behavioural + Deliberate
Choice
Behavioural + Social Norms
Percentage of taxpayers that paid tax by letter received
© Behavioural Insights ltd
Getting people to pay their taxes
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Governance by indicators
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We think with mental models This gives us a partial view of the world.
c
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Insults did not cause a significant change in cortisol or
testosterone among US Northerners
TESTOSTERONE CORITSOL
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But did causes a surge among US Southerners
TESTOSTERONE CORITSOL
Cohen et al. 1996
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Small gain Big loss
Small gain Big gain
Player's choice
Be
ind
epen
den
t T
ry t
o c
oo
per
ate
Be independent Try to cooperate
Par
tne
r's
cho
ice
Payoffs to column player
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Percentage of players who continue to try to cooperate after getting a big loss
0
20
40
60
80
In low-caste pairs
In high-caste pairs
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A mirror to ourselves:
Are experts exempt from biases?
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A mirror to ourselves: Are experts exempt from biases?
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Predictions for Medical Knowledge (in Kenya)
World Bank DFID
42%
18%
12% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Predictions for Poor
Predictions for Well-off
Actual Responses of
Poor
Actual Responses of
Well-off Individuals
Per
cen
tage
Rep
ort
ing
"Mo
st C
ho
se T
RU
E"
"Vaccines are risky because they can cause sterilization" - Kenya - WB Data
38%
17%
12% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Predictions for Poor
Predictions for Well-off
Actual Responses of
Poor
Actual Responses of
Well-off Individuals
Per
cen
tage
Rep
ort
ing
"Mo
st C
ho
se T
RU
E"
"Vaccines are risky because they can cause sterilization" - Kenya - DFID Data
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Poverty
Poverty is a decision making context
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Percentage who had pawned their belongings
Before After
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Cognitive cost of poverty: test scores
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Cognitive cost of poverty: test scores
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Cognitive cost of poverty: test scores
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Operationalizing social and behavioral insights
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Embedding diagnosis and experimentation into implementation
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Mind, Society, and Behavior Word Development Report 2015
worldbank.org/wdr2015