powerpoint presentation: "extremes in the climate system - hurricanes"
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 PowerPoint Presentation: "Extremes in the climate system - Hurricanes"
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Axtraeas ig tba Mliejta ]ystae4
Burrimjgas
Assj Jl Eujllaei,
Pjljl Jl ]babri
#
]jtoir Djg`u
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7/28/2019 PowerPoint Presentation: "Extremes in the climate system - Hurricanes"
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Vrasagtjting Nvarviaw
@acigiting Eatanrnlnhimjl acigiting nc j trnpimjl mymlnga ]jccir%]iepsng smjla
Ojmkhrnug` Burrimjga rasajrmb # gjeigh
Jra tbara jgy trag`s ig trnpimjl mymlnga craquagmy # `istriouting>
Vbysimjl ojsis jg` nrihig Xbjt nas j burrimjga mngsist nc>
Ig wbjt mng`itings jg` wbara `n burrimjgas nrihigjta crne>
Igtagsity _a`umting Xbjt straghtbags.wajkags j burrimjga>
Iepjmts _amagt ejdnr burrimjgas
Vnlitimjl.Cigjgmijl.Amngneim.Varsngjl
Jccamt nc Mliejta Mbjgha "JMM) upng burrimjgas @nas hlnojl wjreigh jg` mliejta mbjgha igcluagma burrimjga>
Xill burrimjgas craquagmy igmrajsa>
Xill igtagsa burrimjga craquagmy igmrajsa>
Mngmlusing Bnw mjg rasajrmb igtn burrimjgas ieprnva> ?
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Eatanrnlnhimjl @acigiting
Pba eatanrnlnhimjl `acigiting nc j trnpimjl mymlnga is j gng%crngtjllnw prassura systae witb mlnsa` mirmuljting nvar trnpimjl nr
suotrnpimjl nmajgs "Hrnssejg jg` Enrhjg, ?6::)'
Pba mbjrjmtaristim tbjt sapjrjtas j trnpimjl mymlnga "PM) crne ntbarmymlngim systaes is tbjt jt jgy baihbt ig tba jtenspbara, tba magtra
nc j PM will oa wjrear tbjg its surrnug`ighs'
Xbag j PM axmaa`s wig` spaa`s nc == e.s tbag `apag`igh ng
hlnojl lnmjting it will oa mjlla` j4
Burrimjga "Jtljgtim jg` Gnrtbajst Vjmicim)
Pypbnng "Gnrtbwast Vjmicim)
]avara Mymlnga "]nutb Vjmicim jg` Gnrtb Ig`ijg Nmajg)
Prnpimjl Mymlnga "]nutb Ig`ijg Nmajg)
Pba lnw prassura systae ejy oa pljma` ng tba ]jccir%]iepsng smjla
jg` gjea`' =
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]jccir%]iepsng ]mjla
0
@avalnpa` ig :98: oy mivil aghigaar
Baroart ]jccir jg` eatanrnlnhist_noart ]iepsng "GBM) '
@asmrioas tba straghtb nc tba
burrimjga, rjghigh crne : 1
Bihbar tbjg mjtahnry = is mngsi`ara`sihgicimjgt
Mjtahnry ]ustjiga` Xig`
"ke.b)
Pypa nc @jejha
: ::9%:1= Xig`s jra vary jgharnus ejy mjusa snea
`jejhas
? :10%:88 Xig`s jra agnrenusly jgharnus ejy mjusa
sihgicimjgt jejhas
= :82%?62 @astrumtiva jejha will nmmur
0 ?69%?1: Parriola jejha will nmmur
1 7 ?1: Mjtjstrnpbim jejha will nmmur
bttp4..www'gbm'gnjj'hnv.jonutssbws'pbp
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Prnpimjl Mymlnga _asajrmb
Pba ejig prnolae stu`yigh burrimjga igtagsitias jg` trjmks jra4
J ljmk nc ralijola jg` mngsistagt `jtj nvar j succimiagtly lngh
parin`' Pbis is tba rasult nc ejgy mbjghas tn eatbn`s jg`
nosarvjting tambgiquas `urigh tba parin` nc igtarast'
Pba enst ralijola `jtj sats cnr PM rasajrmb jra ig tba GnrtbJtljgtim'
1bttp4..www'gbm'gnjj'hnv.mlien.iejhas.:21:^?6:6^tm^se'dph
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Burrimjga Gjeigh
Ig tba ajrly `jys nc Eatrnlnhy ig tba :916s burrimjgas wara igitijllyhivag gjeas tn alieigjta mngcusing wbag tbara wara eultipla
systaes ig jg ig`ivi`ujl ojsig jt nga tiea'
Pba lists nc gjeas jra `ami`a` ig j`vjgma oy tba XEN "Xnrl`
Eatanrnlnhimjl Nrhjgizjting)'
Ic j burrimjga mjusas j `astrumtiva jenugt nc `jejha, tba gjea is
ratira` sn it mjggnt oa ra%usa`'
3
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Hlnojl Burrimjga @istriouting
8
bttp4..www'ssam'wism'a`u.`jtj.sst.
Pba ejp oalnw sbnws tba jrajs ig wbimb PM cnre jg` tbapjtbs tbay tjka' Xa mjg saa tbjt jll tba PM cnrejting tjkas
pljma ig tba trnpimjl nmajgs'
bttp4..savara%wx'pownrks'mne.c.`ismnvar^ejp^burrimjga^trjmks'dph
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Burrimjga ]ajsngsBurrimjga sajsng ig tba Jtljgtim oahigs Duga :st jg` ag`s Gnvaeoar=6tb' Pba Ajstarg Vjmicim burrimjga sajsng oahigs Ejy :1tb jg` jlsn
ag`s Gnvaeoar =6tb "bttp4..www'gbm'gnjj'hnv)
2
bttp4..www'gbm'gnjj'hnv
Pba tbraa hrjpbs ng tba lact sbnw
burrimjga craquagmy `urigh tba
mjlag`jr yajr cnr tba Jtljgtim, Ajst
Vjmicim jg` Xast Vjmicim ojsigs'
Pba burrimjga sajsng ig tba
Jtljgtim oahigs ng Duga :st jg`
ag`s ng Gnvaeoar =6tb'
Pba Ajstarg Vjmicim typbnngsajsng oahigs ajrliar ng tba :1tb
nc Ejy jg` jlsn ag`s ng
Gnvaeoar =6tb'
Pba Xastarg Vjmicim bjs gn
spamicim mymlnga sajsng'
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Pba nmajg wjtar is bajta`
oy snljr rj`ijting jg` murragts'
Pba enist jir risas witb mngvamting
cnreigh stnres, ralajsigh ljtagtbajt'
Pba lnw prassura jrajs "prn`uma` oy vnrtimity) jttrjmt
wig`s tnwjr`s tbae ig tba nppnsita `iramting
Ig nr`ar tn rapljma tba lnw prassura jraj, tba jir envas cjstar Xjre jir is mjrria` jlngh witb tba stnre, tba lnw prassura magtra
mjpturas tba wjre jir
Pba envaeagt jg` agtrjpeagt mjusas tba spaa` nc tba wig`s tn
igmrajsa
Burrimjga Cnrejting
9
bttp4..www'uwam'a`u.dnlbe.AB._aekus.cnrejting'bte
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Aya nc tba Burrimjga
Aya is j lnw prassura jraj surrnug`a` oy bihbar
prassuras
Mjle mlajr jraj
Bjs j `ijeatar nc =6 tn 31ke
]urrnug`a` oy aya wjll "bihb tbug`arstnres, enst
`jgharnus pljma ig burrimjga)
bttp4..www'ugi`jtj'umjr'a`u.`jtj.GHM].lnodamts.mbp.strumtura.ig`ax'bte-ax?
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Pbraa ejdnr mritarij jccamt tba burrimjga4
:' Jir prassura
?' ]aj surcjma taeparjtura "]]P)
=' Mnrinlis Accamt
Vbysimjl Ojsis
::
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Bnw `nas jir prassura jccamt tba
burrimjga> J Xig` spaa` jltarjting jmrnss tba `ijeatar nc j burrimjga jg`
jtenspbarim prassura'
Pba jtenspbarim prassura bara will still oa raljtivaly bihb mnepjra`
tn tba systaes ei``la wbimb is lass tbjg :666 Eilliojrs'
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J burrimjga is mrajta` wbag tba ]]P risas tn ?86M nr jonva'
J bihb ]]P prnvi`as tba raquira` bajt jg` enistura js jir risas
witb mngvamting cnreigh mlnu`s'
Pbis laj`s tn tbaren`ygjeim nmajg%jtenspbara `isaquilioriue'
Bnw `nas ]]P jccamt tba burrimjga>
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Pba Mnrinlis accamt is jg rasult nc Ajrtbs rntjting'
Pba tare /mymlnga/ ig PM racars tn tba systaes mymlngim gjtura,
witb mnugtar mlnmkwisa wig` clnw ig tba Gnrtbarg Baeispbara jg`
mlnmkwisa wig` clnw ig tba ]nutbarg Baeispbara' Pba nppnsita
`iramting nc tba wig` clnw is j rasult nc tba Mnrinlis cnrma'
It mbjghas witb ljtitu`a4
:' Gn Mnrinlis accamt jt Aqujtnr
?' Ejxieue Mnrinlis accamt jt pnlas
It mjusas envigh nodamts tn cnllnw murva` pjtbs
Ig Gnrtbarg Baeispbara, murvjtura is tn rihbt
Ig ]nutbarg Baeispbara, murvjtura is tn lact
Pba Mnrinlis Accamt
:0
bttp4..www'tbanzngabnla'mne.iejhas
.hjspmnr'hic
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Burrimjga igtagsity
Pbaren`ygjeim cjmtnrs
:' Pbarejl agarhy
?' Enist stjtim igstjoility
=' Ei`%trnpnspbarimenistura
@ygjeim cjmtnrs
:' Sartimjl wig` sbajr
?' Mymlngim vnrtimas
=' Mnrinlis accamt
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Mjg nmmur ic tba burrimjga;
Envas igtn nmajg wjtars wbimb ejy gnt bjva tba raquira` wjre
]]P mjusigh `issipjting'
_aejigs ig tba sjea jraj nc nmajg cnr tnn lngh, eixigh tba uppar
36 eatras nc wjtar, wbimb laj`s tn j 1 M `rnp ig ]]P'
Envas tbrnuhb tba ljg`, tbus ra`umigh tba jir prassura jg`
raenvigh tba raquira` wjre jir jg` enist jir, nctag rasultigh ig
`issipjting'
_ajmbas ug`asirjola surcjmas sumb js enugtjig rjghas wbimbjmmalarjta burrimjga wajkagigh'
Axpariagmas j bihb vartimjl wig` sbajr "wig` valnmity igmrajsas witb
baihbt) wbimb mjusas tba mngvamting jg` bajt aghiga tn enva jwjy
crne tba magtra nc tba burrimjga'
Igtagsity _a`umting
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Burrimjga Vjtbs Pba pnrting nc j PM cjmigh tba pnljr rahing mngtjigs ajstarly wig`s,
jg` tba Mnrinlis accamt pulls tbae slihbtly enra tnwjr`s tba pnlas'
Pba wastarly wig`s ng tba aqujtnr cjmigh pnrting nc tba mymlnga
pull slihbtly tnwjr`s tba aqujtnr, out, oamjusa tba Mnrinlis accamt
wajkags tnwjr` tba aqujtnr, tba gat `rjh ng tba mymlnga is tnwjr`s
tba pnlas'
Js j rasult, PM ig tba Gnrtbarg Baeispbara usujlly turg gnrtb
"oacnra oaigh olnwg ajst), jg` trnpimjl mymlngas ig tba ]nutbarg
Baeispbara usujlly turg snutb "oacnra oaigh
olnwg ajst) wbag gn ntbar accamts mnugtarjmt
tba Mnrinlis accamt'
:8
bttp4..ejps'msm'gnjj'hnv.burrimjgas.-
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_amagt Ejdnr Burrimjgas
BurrimjgaKjtrigj
Burrimjga]jg`y
Yajr ?661 ?6:?
Mjtahnry "]jccir%
]iepsng ]mjla) = "Lnuisijgj) : "Gaw Darsay)
Ejxieue Xig` ]paa`"EVB) :?1 epb 90 epb
Jtenspbarim Vrassura
"Eilliojrs) 9?6 906
@ijeatar nc bihb wig`s
"Eilas) 066 906
Ejxieue _jigcjll"ee) =2: ==6
Ejxieue ]gnwcjll
"ee) 6 23=
Pntjl @ajtbs
:2== :?0
:2Jutbnrs nwg wnrk ?6:?
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Iepjmt Vnigt Mnepjrisng
Burrimjga Kjtrigj "GJ]J) Burrimjga ]jg`y "GJ]J)
:9
bttp4..www'gjsj'hnv.eultiea`ij
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Vnlitimjl Iepjmts
Burrimjgas nctag igcluagma Vnlitims' Js ramagtly js tba ?9tb Nmtnoar?6:? wa sjw Burrimjga ]jg`y `isrupt tba Q] Vrasi`agtijl alamting,
cnrmigh ontb mjg`i`jtas tn jojg`ng tba mjepjihg trjil'
Burrimjga ]jg`y jlsn cnrma` Nojej tn puolimjlly `ismuss Hlnojl
wjreigh, j tnpim ba bj` jvni`a` `urigh bis mjepjihg tn hat ra%alamta`'
?6bttp4..gaws'yjbnn'mne.nojej%stjtaeagt%burrimjga%sjg`y%wbita%bnusa%:1=6=:89='btel
bttp4..www'hujr`ijg'mn'uk.agvirngeagt.?6:?.gnv.:?.ojrjmk%nojej%
saiza%eneagt%mliejta%mbjgha
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Burrimjgas mjg jlsn jccamtpnlitimijgs ig j gahjtiva
wjy'
Ng tba rihbt is j cjenus
pbntnhrjpb tjkag ncHanrha X Ousb lnnkigh jt
tba `avjstjting Burrimjga
Kjtrigj mjusa` crne tba
mnecnrt nc bis Jir Cnrma :'
Bis ljzy raspngsa tn tbaburrimjga curtbar tjrgisba`
bis lahjmy jg` ig ?6:6 ba
j`eitta` it wjs j eistjka'
?:
Vnlitimjl Iepjmts "mngtigua`)
bttp4..www'buccightngpnst'mne.?6:6.::.63.ousb%kjtrigj%pbntn%eistjka^g^8891?8'btel
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Amngneim Iepjmts
Ng tba ?9tb Nmtnoar ?6:? Burrimjga ]jg`y cnrma` tba Gaw Ynrk
]tnmk Axmbjgha tn bjlt trj`igh cnr ? `jys' Pba ljst tiea tba Gaw
Ynrk ]tnmk Axmbjgha mlnsa` oamjusa nc j wajtbar%raljta` avagt
wjs ig ]aptaeoar :921 oamjusa nc Burrimjga Hlnrij'
J saginr amngneist, _yjg ]waat, astiejta` tba lnst amngneim
nutput oatwaag Xjsbightng, @'M' jg` Gaw Ynrk Mity wnul` tntjljt lajst $:6 oilling j `jy'
??ejttjlltrj`as'olnhspnt'mne
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Cigjgmijl Iepjmts % Igsurjgma
Burrimjgas jg` ntbar axtraeas ig tba mliejta systae nctag `riva
mnepjgias wbimb spamijlisa ig igsurjgma jg` raigsurjgma'
Nga nc tba ljrhast pnst gjturjl mjtjstrnpba j`visnrs tn igsurjgma
mnepjgias is AZAMJP "bttp4..www'aqamjt'mne)
AZAMJP usas mjtjstrnpba risk en`alligh jg` jgjlytims ncmjtjstrnpba risk en`alligh rasults tn prnvi`a astiejta` cigjgmijl
jg` amngneim lnssas tn its mliagts'
Ng tba :.::.:? AZAMJP pra`imta`
?=
bttp4..www'aqamjt'mne.mjtwjtmb.pnst%ljg`cjll%lnss%
astiejtas%suparstnre%sjg`y%ralajsa`%?6:?%::%6:.
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Varsngjl Iepjmts
Lnss nc lica Bneas `astrnya`
Vnssassings ruiga`
_aouil`igh crne smrjtmb
?0www'hujr`ijg'mn'uk
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Jccamt nc Mliejta Mbjgha "JMM)
upng burrimjgas
Jgtbrnpnhagim cnrmigh is laj`igh tn hlnojl wjreigh, eajg ]]P jra
igmrajsigh sn snea smiagtists jra pra`imtigh jg igmrajsa ig PM
craquagmy'
Hlnojl wjreigh is jlsn mrajtigh enra jgnejlias ig gjturjl
vjrijoility, snea smiagtists pra`imt jg igmrajsa ig AG]N'
Jg igmrajsa ig AG]N craquagmy will laj` tn jg igmrajsa` wig` sbajr
ig tba gnrtb Jtljgtim
]nea oaliava tbis will ra`uma nvarjll burrimjga craquagmy oy ra`umigh stnre
`avalnpeagt
Ntbars oaliava tbis will laj` tn jg igmrajsa ig savara burrimjga craquagmy
?1
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@apag`jgt ng cutura smagjrins tbara jra = pnssiola jgswars tn tba
quasting Xbjt jccamt will mliejta mbjgha bjva upng burrimjgas> Pbasa
jra4
:' Mliejta mbjgha rasults ig j sihgicimjgt igmrajsa ig tba igtagsity nr
craquagmy nc cutura trnpimjl mymlngasig tbis mjsa, jgy jmtings tjkag gnwwill ra`uma cutura vulgarjoility jg` bagma jra mlajrly `asirjola'
?' Mliejta mbjgha nas gnt rasult ig jgy sihgicimjgt igmrajsa ig tba igtagsity
nr craquagmy nc cutura trnpimjl mymlngas, out it `nas laj` tn sihgicimjgt
saj%laval risa tbjt axjmarojtas stnre surhajhjig, jgy jmtings tjkaggnw will ra`uma vulgarjoility jg` bagma jra mlajrly `asirjola'
=' Mliejta mbjgha `nas gnt rasult ig jgy sihgicimjgt igmrajsa ig tba
igtagsity nr craquagmy nc cutura trnpimjl mymlngas, gnr `nas it laj` tn
sihgicimjgt saj%laval risa' ?3
Jccamt nc Mliejta Mbjgha "JMM)
upng burrimjgas
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Mngmlusing
Xnrk sbnul` oa `nga tn ieprnva tba jmmurjmy nc smiagticim `jtj ng
burrimjgas sn puolisba` rasajrmb is enra ralijola'
Enra rasajrmb sbnul` oa mjrria` nut lnnkigh jt tba iepjmt gjturjl
vjrijoility nc ]]P bjs upng burrimjga craquagmy'
Enra rasajrmb sbnul` oa mjrria` nut sn wa mjg curtbar nurug`arstjg`igh ng tba jtenspbara.nmajg igtarjmting'
Pba smiagticim ugmartjigty ng tba pnssiola accamt nc mliejta mbjgha
jg` ng gjturjl vjrijoility sbnul` oa usa` js entivjting cnrigmrajsa` jmting, gnt js jg axmusa cnr igjmting "Hrnssejg jg`
Enrhjg, ?6::)
?8
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_acaragmas
Onnks
Luthags jg` Pjroumk, "?6:6) Pba jtenspbara4 Jg Igtrn`umting tn Eatanrnlnhy, ::tb A`, Gaw Darsay, Vajrsng'
Dnurgjls
Mliejta @ygjeims, Snluea =3, Gueoars ::%:?, ??89%??9=, @NI4 :6':668.s66=2?%6:6% 6962%x, Jtljgtim trnpimjl mymlngas
ig tba twagtiatb magtury4 gjturjl vjrijoility jg` samuljr mbjgha ig mymlnga mnugt'
Mliejtim Mbjgha, Snluea :62, Gueoar =, 10=%189, @NI4 :6':668.s:6120%6::%66?6%:, Prnpimjl mymlngas, mliejta mbjgha,
jg` smiagticim ugmartjigty4 wbjt `n wa kgnw, wbjt `nas it eajg, jg` wbjt sbnul` oa `nga>
Xaositas
Jll racaragma ligks cnug` ug`ar iejhas jg` cihuras'
?2