powerpoint presentation · title: powerpoint presentation author: ji chang created date: 4/23/2013...
TRANSCRIPT
IT IS GREAT TO BE IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
U.S. REAL ESTATE
STOCKS
BONDS
S&P 500
NCREIF Property Index
Barclays Capital Government Bond
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
10 Years 5 Years
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
TO
TA
L R
ET
UR
N/
YE
AR
INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES Commercial Real Estate vs. Stocks vs. Bonds | Year-End 2012
-$180
-$160
-$140
-$120
-$100
-$80
-$60
-$40
-$20
$0
2009 2010 2011 2012
BIL
LIO
NS
OF
DO
LL
AR
S
FUND FLOWS U.S. Stock Mutual Fund Flows
Source: Morningstar, Lipper, Wall Street Journal, Delta Associates; April 2013.
$413 Billion
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FIX
ED
-R
AT
E C
ON
TR
AC
T I
NT
ER
ES
T R
AT
ES
Source: ACLI, Delta Associates; April 2013.
LEVERAGE IS CHEAP Commercial Fixed-Rate Contract Interest Rates
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Philadelphia U.S. Column1 Column3 Column2
PE
RC
EN
T R
ET
UR
N
= Appreciation
= Income
Source: NCREIF, Delta Associates; April 2013.
ANNUAL INVESTMENT RETURNS ON APARTMENTS Philadelphia Compared to the United States
Philadelphia U.S.
2011 2012
PHILADELPHIA INVESTMENT SALES MARKET
INVESTMENT SALES VOLUME Apartment Buildings | 2005 Through 2012
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pgh Phil Balt Boston
SA
LE
S V
OL
UM
E (
$ B
ILL
ION
S)
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
2010 2011 2012
AVERAGE APARTMENT SALE PRICE Philadelphia Metro Area | 2005 – 2012
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
AV
ER
AG
E S
AL
E P
RIC
E P
ER
UN
IT
$90,660
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
Philadelphia Metro
US
6.1% 6.2%
CAP RATES FOR APARTMENT SALES 2005 – 2012
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
NATIONAL ECONOMY Recovery Patterns of GDP Following the Past Three Recessions
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; April 2013.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
CU
MU
LA
TIV
E %
CH
AN
GE
IN
GD
P
Q U A R T E R S A F T E R T R O U G H / Y E A R R E C O V E R Y S T A R T E D
CONTRIBUTORS TO THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
Sales
Consumers 70%
Business
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
U.S. MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Dropped $777 in 2011
Source: US Census Bureau, Delta Associates; April 2013.
$50,054
$50,831
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
IND
EX
Source: University of Michigan, Delta Associates; April 2013.
20-Year Average = 87.9
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
PE
RS
ON
AL
SA
VIN
GS
RA
TE
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; April 2013.
2011 2012 2013
CD
IN
TE
RE
ST
RA
TE
S
Compared to CD Interest Rates U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE
58% 68%
57%
37% 29%
38%
4% 2% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012
Optimistic
ModeratelyOptimistic
Pessimistic
Source: PNC Bank, Delta Associates; April 2013.
U.S. BUSINESS OWNERS’ OUTLOOK ON THE ECONOMY
Note: Totals might not add to 100% due to rounding. Survey data from October of each year shown.
% O
F B
US
INE
SS
OW
NE
RS
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
$1.5
$1.6
$1.7
$1.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. CORPORATIONS CASH ON BALANCE SHEET 2008 - 2012
TO
TA
L L
IQU
ID A
SS
ET
S I
N T
RIL
LIO
NS
OF
$
Source: Federal Reserve, Delta Associates; April 2013.
U.S. DURABLE GOODS PURCHASES Month-to-Month Change
Source: US Census Bureau, Delta Associates; April 2013.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
% C
HA
NG
E I
N N
EW
OR
DE
RS
F
RO
M P
RE
VIO
US
MO
NT
H
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Series 1
REAL GDP GROWTH IMPACT OF FULL SEQUESTER
Source: Moody’s Analytics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
2012 2013 2014
PE
RC
EN
T C
HA
NG
E
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Debt service
U.S. HOUSEHOLDS RAPIDLY DELEVERAGE
% O
F D
ISP
OS
AB
LE
IN
CO
ME
Sources: Federal Reserve, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
Y E A R
Debt Service
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Housing wealth effect
Residential investment
Total
Source: Moody’s Analytics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
HOUSING CONTRIBUTION TO GDP GROWTH
Y E A R
CH
AN
GE
IN
GD
P F
RO
M
HO
US
ING
SE
CT
OR
PHILADELPHIA ECONOMY AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
LA Hou NY DFW SF Atl Chi Bos Was Balt Phil Clev Pgh
TH
OU
SA
ND
S O
F N
EW
PA
YR
OL
L J
OB
S
26.3
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH 12 Months Ending February 2013
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; April 2013.
27
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Detroit
SF Bay Area
Chicago
Boston
Baltimore
Atlanta
New York
Washington
Houston
T H O U S A N D S O F P A Y R O L L J O B S
PHILADELPHIA
JOB CHANGE 2000-2013 Metro Areas
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; April 2013. Note: As of February 2013
CORE INDUSTRIES 2012 | Philadelphia Metropolitan Area
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; April 2013.
Total GRP: 100%
Professional/Technical Services 10%
Federal & State Government 5%
Education and Health Services 5%
Manufacturing 5%
Hospitality Services 3%
Transportation & Warehousing 2%
Financial Services 2%
C O R E I N D U S T R I E S % G R P
Other Smaller Core Sectors & Local- Serving Economic Activities 68%
GRP = Gross Regional Product
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Philadelphia City PA Suburbs S New Jersey Wilmington
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH TRENDS 2003 Through 2012 | Philadelphia Metro Area
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, NPA, Delta Associates; April 2013.
PA
YR
OL
L J
OB
S (
00
0’S
)
Note: 2012 data through September.
-25
-5
15
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH 2010 Through 2015 | Philadelphia Metro Area
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, NPA, Delta Associates; April 2013.
PA
YR
OL
L J
OB
S (
00
0’S
)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Source: US Census Bureau, Delta Associates; April 2013.
Under 20
20-34 35-44 45-54 Over
54
% C
HA
NG
E I
N P
OP
UL
AT
ION
A G E R A N G E
POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE GROUP 2005-2011 | Philadelphia Metro Area
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Source: US Census Bureau, Delta Associates; April 2013.
WHO ARE THE NEW URBANITES? Change in Population By Age: 2000-2011 | Philadelphia City
Under 20
20-34 35-44 45-54 Over
54
% C
HA
NG
E I
N P
OP
UL
AT
ION
A G E R A N G E
WHO ARE THE NEW URBANITES? Single Person Households | U.S. Cities | 2011
Source: American Community Survey, Delta Associates, April 2013.
Philadelphia 40%
* Manhattan: 47%
RE
NT
ER
S A
S %
OF
TO
TA
L
HO
US
EH
OL
DS
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Philadelphia Metro
U.S.
Source: US Census Bureau, Delta Associates, April 2013.
RENTER HOUSEHOLDS Philadelphia Metro vs. U.S. | 2005—2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
20-24 25-29
CHANGING DEMAND PATTERNS People in the U.S. Without Driver’s Licenses | 1983 vs. 2007
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, University of Michigan, Delta Associates; April 2013.
2007 2007 1983 1983
PE
RC
EN
T W
ITH
OU
T
DR
IVE
R’S
LIC
EN
SE
S
A G E R A N G E
PENT-UP DEMAND 25-34 Year Olds Living With Parents | U.S.
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
Percentage Millions
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
MIL
LIO
NS
Source: US Census Bureau, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Delta Associates, April 2013.
THE PHILADELPHIA APARTMENT MARKET
LARGEST APARTMENT MARKETS 2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
LA Chi DFW Was Hou Atl Phil Phx
Sources: MPF Research; Delta Associates; April 2013.
UN
ITS
(0
00
S)
327
Note: Excludes New York at 2.1 million units.
STABILIZED APARTMENT VACANCY RATE Major Apartment Markets
Source: MPF Research, Delta Associates; April 2013.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
NY LA Chi Was Phil Balt DFW Hou Phx Atl
VA
CA
NC
Y R
AT
E (
AL
L C
LA
SS
ES
)
National Rate:
5.1%
4.9%
946
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
DFW Hou Atl Was L.A. Phx Balt Phil Chi Pgh
AN
NU
AL
NE
T A
BS
OR
PT
ION
OF
UN
ITS
Source: REIS, MPF Research, Delta Associates; April 2013.
ANNUAL ABSORPTION OF APARTMENTS Major Apartment Markets | Long-Term Average
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013
U.S.
EF
FE
CT
IVE
RE
NT
GR
OW
TH
PHILADELPHIA AREA APARTMENT MARKET Annual Class A Rent Growth
Source: MPF Research, Delta Associates; April 2013.
1.4%
1 2 M O N T H S E N D I N G F I R S T Q U A R T E R
Long-Term Average = 3.0 %
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Center City
Sub. PA
So. NJ
Phil Metro
CLASS A APARTMENT RENT PER SF Philadelphia Metro Area | 2002-2013
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
$2.17
$1.60
Note: Data for 2013 is as of 1st quarter.
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%Average Effective Base Rent Stabilized Vacancy
EFFECTIVE RENT AND VACANCY RATE Class A Apartments | Philadelphia Metro Area
AV
ER
AG
E E
FF
EC
TIV
E B
AS
E R
EN
T
L O N G - T E R M R E N T G R O W T H : 3 . 0 % / Y E A R ( 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 1 2 )
ST
AB
ILIZ
ED
VA
CA
NC
Y R
AT
E
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013. Note: 2013 data is as of 1st quarter.
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ABSORPTION PACE PER PROJECT PER MONTH Philadelphia Metro Area | Projects in Initial Lease-Up
AB
SO
RP
TIO
N P
AC
E P
ER
PR
OJ
EC
T S
INC
E
MA
RK
ET
ING
BE
GA
N (
UN
ITS
/M
ON
TH
LY
)
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
Philadelphia Metro Average
Note: Data is as of 1st quarter each year.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CONCESSIONS FOR CLASS A APARTMENTS Philadelphia Metro Area
CO
NC
ES
SIO
N A
S A
%
OF
FA
CE
RE
NT
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Philadelphia Metro Class A Apartments | Mar. 2013—Mar. 2016
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
P H I L A D E L P H I A M E T R O
Net Absorption: 1,500/Year = 4,500 units
Demand
Supply
Under construction and planned and may deliver by 3/16: 4,080 units
MA
RK
ET
RA
TE
UN
ITS
IN
T
HO
US
AN
DS
ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT RENT GROWTH Philadelphia Metro | 2001 - 2016
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Long-Term Average = 3.0 %
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
% E
FF
EC
TIV
E R
EN
T G
RO
WT
H
* Annual rent growth as of Q1
FOCUS ON CENTER CITY
CENTER CITY BOUNDARIES
Source: ESRI, Delta Associates; April 2013.
50%
19%
10%
21%
RENTAL HOUSING BY PROPERTY TYPE Center City Philadelphia | 2012
Source: Dr. Kevin Gillen, Delta Associates; April 2013.
Total Units: 40,676 Apartments
Condos
Other
Singles and Towns
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
CLASS A APARTMENT UNIT STARTS Center City | Q2 2011 - Q1 2013
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
# O
F C
LA
SS
A M
AR
KE
T R
AT
E U
NIT
S
Annual Average = 1,057
2011 2012 2013
APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE Center City Philadelphia
Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Historic Average Q4 2012 Q1 2013
Planned
Under Construction
UN
ITS
IN
36
MO
NT
H P
IPE
LIN
E
PROJECTED DELIVERIES Projects Currently Under Construction in Center City
Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014
NU
MB
ER
OF
CL
AS
S A
M
AR
KE
T
RA
TE
UN
ITS
DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Center City Class A Apartment Market | Mar. 2013—Mar. 2016
Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
C E N T E R C I T Y
Net Absorption: 900/Year = 2,700
D E M A N D
S U P P LY
Under construction: 1,749 units
Total: 2,830 units
MA
RK
ET
RA
TE
UN
ITS
IN
T
HO
US
AN
DS
Planned and may deliver by 3/16: 1,081 units
COMPETE WITH SUPERIOR MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, AND DESIGN
• Pet-centric amenities: pet care center, dog-walking area
• Interactive media station in club room and electronic concierge notification system
• Built-in audio system
• Flexible furniture, movable islands, to max small unit size
• Bike storage, bike/car sharing infrastructure
• Outdoor living space to extend summer season: movie screen, screened-in porch, firepit, etc.
Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.
S U C H A S :
FEATURED PROJECTS
EDGEWATER
Source: Realen, Bozzuto Management, Delta Associates; April 2013.
Source: PMC Property Group, Delta Associates; April 2013.
2040 MARKET
Source: The John Buck Company, Delta Associates; April 2013.
2116 CHESTNUT