powerpoint presentation€¦ · title: powerpoint presentation author: katie schnitzlein created...
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How can we position for growth?
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Input from broad sources
1,100+ consumers Dairy experts and
databases
IDFA members
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What we heard from you re: growth…
Domestic
Need better consumer insights64%
Have grown # of products
in the last 5 years83%
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What we heard from you re: growth…
International
Do not intend to focus on exports47%
Believe trade disputes will last53%
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Domestic: understand consumer needs
and evolve value chain to support their
needs
International: grow with deficits, make
commitments through cycle
Growth is possible
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20
5
0
10
15
35
25
30
152013 14 16 2017
Top dairy performers have been expanding margin
EBITDA margins, %
SOURCE: McKinsey analysis; Proprietary database; company filings
+1.3%
+4.1%
Median
companies
Top companies
margin growth
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How do the dairy winners identify growth?
Where to
play
Growth pockets identified with
advanced analytics
Fast product launches
supported by an agile supply
chain
How to stay
relevant
Domestic
Large dairy deficits
Bold commitments to new
markets investing for the long
term
International
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What trends are impacting the consumer industry today?
The ‘Millennial
Effect’
Infinite intimacy
(IoT + Digital)
Explosion
of small
Retail
RevolutionBetter for you
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And what about Millennials?
Are 2-3xmore likely
to purchase
groceries
online
63% follow
brands on
social media
2.8x more likely
to believe
new brands
are better
3.7xmore likely to
avoid “big
food”
…and as of
2018, spend
more than any
other generation
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Consumers say they want to eat healthier… but does it translate to action?
Very unhealthy Very healthy
But what do consumers think is healthy?
35% of consumers want to eat
healthier than they did a year ago
Fat
Protein
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Butter and cream – leading growth, despite mixed perceptions on “healthy”
…sales are growing 4%+ per year
vs.
#1 reason for buying LESS
34% “I found other products that are
healthier”
#1 reason for buying MORE
40% “I feel it is the healthiest option”
Butter…
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Cream shows a similar contrast
…sales are growing 10%+ per year
vs.
#1 reason for buying LESS
23% “I found other products that are
healthier”
#1 reason for buying MORE
19% “I feel it is the healthiest option”
Cream…
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Non-dairy is here to stay, but how big will it get?
Dairy industry executives said
about dairy alternatives…
51% Market will continue to grow
45% Growth will flatten
4% A fad, market will shrink
7.4
92.6
Non-dairy milk alternatives
Dairy milk
Small, but growing
segment of the market…
+10.4% y.o.y.
62% Dairy consumers have
tried alternatives
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28
48
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Now buy bothReturn to original Stick with new
Dairy consumers are trying new things
41%of dairy consumers
have tried a new
dairy brand in last
12 months
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The shopping landscape is changing
Traditional grocery and mass are declining … …and grocery purchase venues are evolving
% consumers who say traditional Grocery / Mass is primary
place to buy food
89%2005
71%2017
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Grocery growth will come from online. Consumers plan to look for dairy.
1%
971
99%
2017
11%
89%
2025E
883
Brick & MortarE-commerce
-0.1%
34%
CAGR Grocery sales in the US, $B
Consumers will expect dairy to be there
% online dairy consumers shopping online vs other
grocery
29
44
27
More Same Less
E-commerce will drive growth
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Small brands are driving growth
CAGR
% p.a. -0.8%3.8%-2.5% -1.3%
Dairy retail sales
$, B
56.7 55.3
Small (<$400M)2015 Private Label Large (>$400M) 2018
+1.1-1.4 -1.0
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Big and small companies have similar success launching brands
Brands/major new
products launched - 2013 Brands still alive - 2017 4-year survival rate
Large incumbents
(>$1B sales;
N=~40)85 20 ~25%
Small incumbents
and new entrants
(N=~1,000)1,001 241 ~25%
Packaged food, US, 2013-17
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Identifying pockets of growth requires insight and analytics
How situational needs
influence behaviors
Need
States
How consumers use
products
Usage
Behavior
How consumer
attitudes influence
behaviors
Consumer
segmentation
How shoppers
purchase products
Shopper
Behavior
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Agility will get products to market
ANALYSIS DESIGN
BUILDTEST
ANALYSIS DESIGN
BUILDTEST
ANALYSIS DESIGN
BUILDTEST
ANALYSIS DESIGN
BUILDTEST
presumes that we cannot
understand the
opportunity until we
explore it – so it explicitly
focuses on significant
learning and iteration
throughout, while
preserving resource
flexibility
AgileA product systematically
de-risked, tested in-
market with customers
and consumers, with
known information
Output
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The full value chain will need to evolve
Flexibility and Agility Insights and TechnologyDistribution and Access
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How do the dairy winners identify growth?
Where to
play
Growth pockets identified with
advanced analytics
Fast product launches
supported by an agile supply
chain
How to stay
relevant
Domestic
Large dairy deficits
Bold commitments to new
markets investing for the long
term
International
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Profitable growth comes from looking globally
80
0
70
90
100
110
120
130
140
1410 112008 1509 12 13 16 2017
Global Local
13
15
7
10
2008 2017
Global Local
Revenue Growth by Market Focus
2008=100
Dairy Representative EBITDA Margin
(%)
*Note: Sample of 14 major dairy companies; Global companies are those with 50% or more revenues from non-home markets
Revenue Index is aggregate earnings based on 2017 exchange rates;
EBITDA margin rates weighted for company size
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There is a large, long-term global opportunity to capture
Dairy surplus/deficit Million tonnes milk equivalent in 2017 and 20271
13 18
-3-6
125
23 19
-19 -23
0 -6
-10-18
DeficitSurplus
United States
C. & S. America
Africa
NZ & Australia
EU
Asia ex China ex India
India
-15-26
China
1 based on 95 countries
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82% of our exports are not impacted by trade actions
0.4
2.9
Exports to
non-affected
markets
0
1.0
0.9
0.6
Canada ChinaMexico
5.4
0.6
0
4.4
Total Exports
0.6
1.3
0.6Impacted exports
US Dairy exports, $M
… of US dairy
exports by $
value are
currently not
being hit by
retaliatory
tariffs82%
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US dairy exports are not aligned with future demand
NAFTA (Can, Mex)
China
Asia (ex-China & India)
NZ & Australia
EU
Africa
Total
C. & S. Am.
1 Figures do not total to 100% due to regional surplus cancelling out included individual country deficits
% US dairy export 2017
Million tonnes milk equivalent dairy
deficit or surplus forecasted in 2027
2%
11%
2%
29%
9%
5%
36%
DeficitSurplus
-26
-23
-18
-6
-4
18
19
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Our competition has concluded more trade agreements
1 The number represents the number of agreements negotiated or being negotiated but not concluded as of today.
# of trade agreements1
DeficitSurplus
NAFTA (Can, Mex)
China
Asia (ex-China & India)
NZ & Australia
EU
Africa
C. & S. Am.
Million tonnes milk equivalent dairy
deficit or surplus forecasted in 2027
-26
-23
-18
-6
-4
18
19
2
11
1
2
1
0
1
2
3
0
10
1
1
0
2
8
0
2
2
11
Total
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What can we do? Play defense
“It took us 10 years to build up our trusted export
relationships in that market and it was all gone in 24 h.”
Identify Manage Plan
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“Our production is growing faster than domestic consumption - we have to export”
“Our preference is to manufacture in the US and export, but where we can’t crack
tariffs, we will go and build a plant ”
What can we do? Play offense
Get ready Diversify Invest
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Where to next?
Invest through
cycle
Flow to
projected
deficits
Consumer
insights
Agility and
flexibility
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Thank you!