powerpoint presentation - university of colorado boulder€¦ · 4/12/2017 3 13 importance of wind...
TRANSCRIPT
4/12/2017
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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Clicker Question
The power (Energy/time) available from the wind scales as follows:
A)P ~ (wind velocity)B)P ~ (wind velocity)^2C) P ~ (wind velocity)^3D)P ~ (wind velocity)^4E) P ~ (wind velocity)^5
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
http://www.colorado.edu/cwa/
Extra Credit #4Attend one of the Conference on World Affairs talks this week (April 10-14, 2017) relevant to Energy, Environment, Climate, …
Write a one-page typed report highlighting just one or two interesting scientific facts you hear about and their relevance. Must proof read!
One page format:
Your Last Name, First NameTitle of Talk, Speaker, Speaker Affiliations, Talk Time and Location
Strict Deadline – extra credit #4 due in class on Monday, April 17, 2017.
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Reading Assignment
Read all of Chapter 10 this week
Homework Assignment
Homework #8 posted, due Wed., April 12, 2017.Homework #9 posted, due Wed., April 19, 2017.
-- My office hours are Monday 11 am – noon.Regular help room hours this week.
Also available by appointment – just email me.
Research Project #2 Topics handed out today.I will email the class the Project Details later today!
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Wind Energy: Current Status & Future
University of Colorado
Tony Jimenez
12 April 2017
5
Presentation Overview
• Wind Turbine Applications
• Wind Energy Basics
• Estimating Turbine Energy Production
• Wind Turbine Topologies
• Technology Trends
• Wind Market Status
• Future of Wind Energy
Wind Turbine Applications
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Home/Farm
Skystream 1.8 kW Bergey 10 kW
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Distributed Wind (Mid Sized)
• 4 x 50 kW Wind Turbines
• Selawik, AK
• Turbine Size: 660 kW
• Developer/Owner: Hull
Municipal Lighting Plant
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Wind Farms
10
Sizes and Applications
Small (50 kW)
• Homes
• Farms• Remote Applications
(e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking)
Intermediate
(50 kW-1.5 MW)
• Village Power
• Hybrid Systems
• Distributed Power
Large (1.5 MW +)
• Central Station Wind Farms
• Distributed Power
• Community Wind
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Utility Scale Wind Energy Technology
At it’s simplest, the wind turns the turbine’s blades, which spin a shaft connected to a generator that makes electricity. Large turbines can be grouped together to form a wind power plant, which feeds power to the electrical transmission system. Wind Energy Basics
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Importance of Wind Resource Assessment
An accurate wind resource estimate is the basis for estimating the performance and economics of wind energy projects
Wind Resource Estimate
Energy Production
Project Economics Project Costs
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ENERGY AND POWER
ENERGY, ABILITY TO DO WORKENERGY = FORCE * DISTANCE
Electrical Energy , kWh
POWER = ENERGY/TIME (Rate at which energy is being created or used)
Generator Size, kW
Energy is a quantityPower is a rate (quantity/time)
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Power in the Wind
Power in the wind is proportional to wind speed cubed.)( 3
2
1AVWindPower
Air DensityRotor Area
Wind Speed
Wind resource often expressed in terms of “power density” (Watts/m2)
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Wind Speed Distribution
Weibull Distributions
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Wind Speed Bin (m/s)
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f T
ime
AWS = 5.0 m/sk = 2.0PD = 146 watts/m^2
AWS = 5.0 m/sk = 3.0PD 108 watts/m^2
AWS = 6.0 m/sk = 2.0PD = 253 watts/m^2
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WIND SHEAR
Wind Speed, m/sHeightm
50
40
30
20
10
50
SURFACE
12.6
12.2
11.7
11
10
8.8
Courtesy: Alternative Energy Institute
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Turbulence: Importance of “Micro-Siting”
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Estimating Turbine Energy Production
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Turbine Energy Production
Wind Power output is proportional to wind speed cubed.
59.0
)(
max
3
2
1
P
p
C
AVCWindPower
Air DensityRotor Area
Wind Speed
The Betz Limit
Efficiency
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Calculating Turbine Output
Estimating Annual Wind Turbine Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed (m/s)
Win
d S
peed
Dis
trib
uti
on
(ho
urs
) /
An
nu
al
En
erg
y
Pro
dcu
tio
n (
10s o
f kW
h)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Win
d T
urb
ine
Po
we
r (k
W)
Wind Speed Distribution (Hours) Annual Energy Production (10s of kWh) WTG Power (kW)
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Calculating Turbine Output
Wind
Speed
(m/s)
WTG
Power
(kW)
Wind Speed
Distribution
Wind Speed
Distribution
(Hours)
Annual
Energy
Production
(kWh)1 0 5.8% 508 0
2 0 10.7% 937 0
3 0 13.7% 1,200 0
4 1 14.9% 1,305 1,305
5 6 14.2% 1,244 7,464
6 12 12.2% 1,069 12,828
7 18 9.7% 850 15,300
8 26 7.0% 613 15,938
9 32 4.7% 412 13,184
10 39 3.0% 263 10,257
11 46 1.7% 149 6,854
12 52 1.0% 88 4,576
13 57 0.5% 44 2,508
14 62 0.2% 18 1,116
15 66 0.1% 9 594
16 68 0.0% 0 0
17 70 0.0% 0 0
18 71 0.0% 0 0
19 71 0.0% 0 0
20 70 0.0% 0 0
21 69 0.0% 0 0
22 67 0.0% 0 0
23 65 0.0% 0 0
24 64 0.0% 0 0
25 63 0.0% 0 0
Total 0.994 8,709 91,924
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Capacity Factor
Actual energy production over some time frame
Possible energy production if the facility had produced at rated power over the whole of that time frame
CF =
Capacity factors for U.S. wind farms typically range from 30% - 45%
Capacity factors for (well sited) small wind turbines typically ranges from 10% - 25%
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Wind Turbine Topologies
Why do wind turbines look like they do?
• Drag vs Lift machines
• Horizontal Axis vs Vertical Axis
• Upwind vs Downwind
• Two vs Three blades
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WIND
PANEMONE TURBINECUPFLAP PLATE
shield
rotation
Drag Machines
Courtesy: Alternative Energy Institute
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Lift Machines
Courtesy: Alternative Energy Institute
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TYPES
HAWT
NREL #29507
VAWT
NREL #15704
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Downwind & Upwind
Courtesy: Alternative Energy Institute
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Two Blades vs. Three Blades
Two Blades+ Less costly (one less blade to buy)- Loads changing as rotor spins
Three Blades+ Rotor is always balanced
Technology Trends
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U.S. 100m Wind Map
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Current/Future Technology Trends
Larger Rotors
Taller Towers
Optimization at the Wind Plant Level
Segmented components
On-site manufacturing of blades and towers
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Turbine Trends (U.S)
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Wind Plant Aerodynamics is a New Focus of Research
o Subject of DOE Focus Area for the Wind Power Program
o Building High Performance Computing resources to facilitate progress
Horns Rev wind plant, Denmark Simulation of array effects
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Transportation Issues (1 of 2)
Large turbine components lead to…
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Transportation Issues (2 of 2)
…transportation challenges!
Wind Market Status
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U.S Wind Turbine Installations (thru 2016)
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U.S. Installed Wind Power Capacity (31 Dec 2016)
Cumulative 201682,183 MW
Total 20168,503 MW
Under ConstructionOver 10,400 MW
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Wind Energy Contribution (Global)
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Cumulative Global Wind Capacity thru 2016
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Global Wind Top 10 (2016)
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Offshore Wind
• Why?
o Close to load centers, avoids
transmission, better wind resource
• Extensive Deployment in Europe
(and increasing in China) over
past 20 years
o Cumulative global offshore
deployment (EOY 2016) totals almost
14,400 MW
o Costs are declining sharply
• First U.S. offshore wind farm went
on-line in 2016
• U.S. issues
o Less shallow water than Europe
o More extreme wave and hurricane
design conditions
o Ice in great lakes
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Offshore Wind – BOEM Lease Areas
Dec 2016: Wind lease auction for 79,350 acres off the coast of New York results in a top bid of over $42M
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Offshore Wind Foundation Options
Offshore wind substructure designs for varying water depths. Illustration by Josh Bauer, NREL
monopile
four-legged jacket
IBGS or “twisted
jacket
semisubmersible platform
tension-leg platform
spar buoy
Future of Wind Energy
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Two Key Questions
• How much wind energy can we install?
o Resource availability
o Land/sea area
o Integration with the grid
• How much wind energy will we install?
o Costs versus alternatives
o Policy
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Wind Supply Curve (U.S.)
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Study Scenario Land Area Requirements: 2050
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Wind Power Integration
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Transmission vs. Storage
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Drivers for Wind Power
• Declining Wind Costs
• Federal Incentives (PTC, ITC, Accelerated depreciation)
• State RPS
• Climate change
• Environment/Water
• Economic Development
• Fuel Price Uncertainty
• Green Power
• Energy Security
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Near Term Trends / News
• Wind has been a significant source of new electric generation capacity additions in recent years
• U.S. domestic manufacturing content for nacelle assembly, blades, & towers is strong. U.S. remains strongly dependent upon imports for internal nacelle components, e.g. drivetrains
• Turbine scaling is significantly boosting wind project performance, while the installed cost of wind projects has declined
• Wind power sales prices remain near all-time lows, enabling economic competitiveness despite low natural gas prices
• Growth beyond current PTC cycle remains uncertain: could be blunted by declining federal tax support, expectations for low natural gas prices, and modest electricity demand growth
2015 Wind Technologies Marker Report; August 2016
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Near Term Trends / News
• Main federal incentive, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) is phasing out through 2020
• Increasing presence of non-utility off-takers (e.g. Google, etc.) 24% of production from 2016 installations purchased by non-utility off-takers
• First U.S. offshore wind farm went on-line in 2016 off the coast of Rhode Island
• Overseas, offshore wind farm costs are declining sharply: bodes well for U.S. offshore wind industry
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Near Term Capacity Additions
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Wind Price Competiveness
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“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
- Yogi Berra
Wind Vision Report
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Wind Vision Generator Mix
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Resources: On The Web
• Wind Vision Report: http://energy.gov/eere/wind/maps/wind-vision
• 2015 Wind Technologies Market Report: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2015-
wind-technologies-market-report
• 2015 Distributed Wind Market Report:
https://energy.gov/eere/wind/downloads/2015-distributed-wind-market-report
• Annual Technology Baseline:
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/data_tech_baseline.html
• American Wind Energy Association (AWEA): http://www.awea.org
• Distributed Wind Energy Association (DWEA): http://www.distributedwind.org
• Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC): http://www.gwec.net/
• WINDExchange Web Site (DOE): http://energy.gov/eere/wind/windexchange
• Windustry: http://www.windustry.org/
• Utility Variable Generation Group site (UVIG): http://www.uwig.org
• Wind turbine manufacturer web sites
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Carpe Ventemhttp://energy.gov/eere/wind/windexchange